Player Profile: Tommy Hanson

The Braves dealt Tommy Hanson to the Angels in exchange for reliever Jordan Walden. Yes, the Walden that opened the year as the closer for the Angels last season. With the Angels adding Ryan Madson they felt they could deal the hard throwing right-hander (Walden didn’t have a great season last year, but don’t forget that he saved 32 games in 2011 and that he owns a 10.83 K/9 mark over 123 big league games). The Braves now possess, arguably, the top-foursome of any pen in baseball: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty and Walden. With the way the game is played these days, have an elite bullpen seems to be as important as having an elite starting rotation. But this piece is about the tall righty who at one point was looked at as a potential top-20 starting pitcher in the fantasy game. What should we make of the flailing Tommy Hanson?

As a rookie Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA. In his second season he passed 200 innings while posting a 3.33 ERA. In his first three seasons his WHIP was 1.18, 1.17 and 1.17. So happy times ahead, right? Well, not so much. What that data leaves out is that Hanson tossed only 130 innings in 2011 as healthy woes started to mount. Last season his ERA skyrocketed to 4.48, his WHIP went into the stratosphere at 1.45, and he posted a four year low in BB/9 (3.66) and K/BB (2.27). What went wrong with Hanson? His shoulder wasn’t 100 percent. The result was a loss of three mph off his fastball from 2010 to 2012 (92.7 to 89.7 mph). The loss of velocity caused him to nibble more driving his pitch counts up. As a result he made 31 starts but was only able to last 174.2 innings. To compare, in 2010 he made three more starts but hurled 28 more innings.

If you can’t tell, let me just spell it out. Hanson, previously one of my favorite young hurlers in the game, makes me nervous. When a guy who is this young (26 years old) has these kind of issues, the red flag goes up. I’ve written previously about Hanson and his somewhat odd mechanics (I wrote about that issue back in February of 2012 in The Old, The Young and The Pretty). I always felt that a potential land mine in his development was that wonky mechanical issues he has where he seems to be fighting his body a bit as he comes over the top in a rather disjointed movement. Was the mechanical issue a reason for his struggles with health in 2012? That certainly seems possible. Whatever the issue, unless he is able to reclaim those lost three mph his outlook isn’t getting any better any time soon.

Numbers wise, here are some of the concerns.

Last season his ERA was 4.48. His first three seasons that mark was 3.28.
Last season his WHIP was 1.45. His first three seasons that mark was 1.17.
Last season his K/BB ratio was 2.27. His first three seasons that mark was 2.89.

You could argue that even with those struggles that he still posted a 1.01 GB/FB (career 0.99), a 74.1 left on base percentage (career 74.9) and that his ’12 numbers in line drive rate (20.7) and HR/F (13.5) were virtual matches for his ’11 numbers (20.5 and 12.5). I would counter with this. Since July 15th of 2011 Hanson has made 36 starts that have led to the following numbers: 14-13, 4.96 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2.37 K/BB ratio over 201.1 innings. Since the middle of the 2011 season Hanson hasn’t even been a league average hurler.

A young pitcher struggling with health, coming off his worst season, moving to an unfavorable league and one who is likely to see a massive increase in salary as he heads to arbitration makes Hanson a certain risk to take on for the Angels. There should also be plenty of concern the the fantasy game with Hanson. All of the negative points I made in this piece are valid concerns. Given the overall down turn in his work last season, and the fact that he’s averaged just 152 innings pitched the last two years, you had better think long and hard about making him anything other than your 4th starting pitcher in mixed leagues, and that might even be a bit optimistic. I’m off the Hanson train for now. He’ll have to prove to me that he can be successful before I elevate him back onto my target list.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

Cliff Lee (#3): He “missed,” but through no fault of his own. Lee won six games. S I X. Lee had a 3.16 ERA, the 15th best mark in baseball. Lee was the only pitcher in baseball with an ERA under 3.75 who failed to win at least 10 games. Lee also posted a 1.11 WHIP, the 10th best mark in the game. Lee also punched out 207 batters, the 10th best mark in baseball. Add in his 7.39 K/BB ratio, the best in baseball, and you have an elite hurler who was saddled by terrible support from his team.

Roy Halladay (#4): Failing to make 30 starts for the first time since 2004, Halladay had his first disappointing season since that year. Given his draft day cost 11 wins, a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 156.1 innings was a massive disappointment. Not only did he fail to throw 220 innings for the first time since 2005, he also had his lowest win total since ’04, his first ERA over 3.75 since 2004, and his worst WHIP in five years. It’s fair to wonder if the 35 year old will ever be dominant again.

Tim Lincecum (#6): Awful. I wanted to leave him off the list, to just ignore what happened, but of course I couldn’t. His ERA (5.18) was two runs above normal, and his K total was a five year low, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning with 190 in 186 innings. At least he wasn’t awful in the second half (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 Ks in 89.1 innings).

Jon Lester (#12): A rock for four years, that facade crumbled in 2012. Lester won only nine games after 4-straight 15 win seasons. He posted a 4.82 ERA after 4-straight years under 3.50. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, his highest mark in five years. He struck out 166 batters, his lowest total in four years. A letdown from a guy that seemed like such rock solid option on draft day.

Ricky Romero (#17): Just plain awful. See Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft.

Josh Beckett (#18): Won only seven games, lost a career worst 14, and saw his ERA bulge to 4.65. Beckett, who had struck out eight batters per nine in each of the past five seasons, didn’t even rack up seven per nine with a 6.97 mark, and the resulting 2.54 K/BB ratio was his worst mark since 2006. There’s no way around it – Beckett was a terrible disappointment.

Tommy Hanson (#23): He won a 4-year best 13 games while tossing 174.2 innings. He also basically matched his career mark with an 8.30 K/9 rate. However, he lost 10 games, saw his ERA soar to 4.48, and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. Clearly his shoulder wasn’t at 100 percent, and it’s fair to be concerned about his outlook moving forward if he truly has lost three mph off his heater.

Stephen Strasburg (#30): He won 15 games, struck out 197 batters, posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was spectacular. If only he had made four more starts…

Ubaldo Jimenez (#34): He’s never coming “back.” The first half version of 2010 was never going to return – he’s not the second coming of Bob Gibson – and at this point it’s fair to wonder if Ubaldo is even worth counting on at all in mixed leagues. Not only did he strike batters out at a career worst 7.28 per nine his walks exploded to a career worst 4.84. The resulting 1.51 K/BB ratio is really the only number you will need to focus on with Ubaldo – it signifies doom.

Johnny Cueto (#45): I admit it. I was wrong about Cueto. I wanted to see another year with strong work given that his 2011 effort was such an outlier compared to his performance over his first thee major league seasons. Consider Cueto to have definitively answered that call. Cueto is in line for NL CY Young consideration thanks to 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 Ks in a career best 217 innings.

Jake Peavy (#72): I didn’t think he, or Johan Santana, could do it. Santana failed as I expected (6-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117 innings), but Peavy was a fantasy star, especially given his draft day cost as Peavy went only 11-12, but he threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The ERA was his best mark since 2008, the WHIP his best since 2007, and 2012 was the first time that he pitched more than 120 innings in four years.

R.A. Dickey (#78): Oh come on, everyone missed on Dickey. Look back at your preseason guides and I think you’ll find my ranking was as favorable as most. Dickey had surgery on his abdominal tear and should be fine by opening day, so it’s not a real worry. Dickey won 20 games, was second in the NL in ERA (2.73) and first in strikeouts (230). A simply remakrbale season for a hurler who depends on a “trick” pitch almost exclusive. It might have been the most dominating season in the history of the game for a knuckleballer.

Jarrod Parker (#109): He won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the course of 181.1 innings. It was a great season by any measure. He was saddled with a 26 percent line drive rate, an incredibly high mark, or his effort might even have been a wee bit better.

By Ray Flowers

Review: NL LABR

The worst team of all-time.

The worst ever drafted.

How could I possibly be considered an expert drafting this team?

I heard some variance of the above in emails, in tweets, on my show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I heard it from everyone. E V E R Y O N E. I left money on the table (a mistake I owned up to in my review of the draft). I had a corner infielder – Derrek Lee – who didn’t take an at-bat all season. I had Placido Polanco have the worst season of his career. So how did the worst team ever drafted turn out? With three days left in the season the team was tied for first place…

Wilin Rosario, who drew a ton of heat for my $8 bid, blasted 28 long balls with 71 RBIs in a dominating season.

Garrett Jones socked 27 long balls with 86 RBIs – both career bests (the runs batted in tied his total from 2010).

Daniel Murphy did exactly what I expected him to do (.291-6-65-62-10) while qualifying at multiple spots.

Rafael Furcal had 477 at-bats, a three year high. He wasn’t great, but he was pretty solid (.264-5-49-69-12).

Chris Nelson, who I was made fun of mercilessly for drafting, hit .301 with nine homers and 53 RBIs.

So much for my infield being “pathetic” as most thought.

As I said after the draft, the strength of my team was always going to be my outfield. And it was.

Andrew McCutchen: Should finish near the top of the NL MVP voting thanks to his out of sight effort that included a .327 batting average, 31 homers, 96 RBIs, 107 runs scored and 20 steals.

Dexter Fowler: Hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals, 53 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

Alfonso Soriano: 32 HRs, 108 RBIs. I was laughed at for drafting him.

Carlos Quentin: 16 HRs, 46 RBIs. Knew he would be hurt, but 86 games was a 5-year low. If only he had gotten to 115…

Chris Young: Worst season of his career hitting .231-14-41-36-8 from a player who averaged 24 HRs, 81 RBIs, 92 runs and 25 steals in 2010-11. He was literally half the player in 2012 that he had been the previous two years.

Nate McLouth: Even though it’s an NL-only league, you can hold on to players who are dealt to the other league. I held on to him all year and that really paid off in the end as he took off with the Orioles (.268-7-18-35-12 in a mere 55 games).

How was the club on the hill?

Madison Bumgarner: 16 wins, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 191 Ks
Tommy Hanson: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 161 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez: 12-13, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 Ks
Gio Gonzalez: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 207 Ks
Jeff Samardzija: 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 180 Ks

Rafael Betancourt: 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31 saves
Sergio Romo: 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14 saves
Luke Gregerson: 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9 saves

Reserve picks – Two played out.

Ross Detwiler: 10 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 105 Ks
Logan Forsythe: .283, 6 HRs, 8 SBs, 45 runs

So how did it all turn out?

CONGRATS: Steve Moyer of Baseball Info Solutions who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 2/13. I couldn’t catch Steve but turns out the worst team in the history of fantasy baseball, the team I dubbed the Little Engine That Could, almost brought it home. So there everyone.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August30, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you drop Drew Stubbs for Trevor Plouffe? It’s almost playoff time, and Stubbs can get ice cold as he is now.
– @joe_joe_a_go_go

Before we go bashing Stubbs, let’s not overlook what Plouffe has done, or better yet not done, of late.

Plouffe has had quite a season. In June he went deep 11 times. He also hit 14 homers in a 29 game stretch at one point. Still, he’s not exactly been Mr. Consistent. He went deep Wednesday night, his first homer since July 3rd, a span of 28 games. Plouffe also hasn’t stolen a single base this season. Plouffe is hitting .242, .017 points below the league average. Plouffe has a .312 OBP, nine points below the league average. Plouffe is also hitting .169 with a .468 OPS in August. So before we go and canonize Plouffe, let’s make sure we realize (A) who he actually is and (B) that he has been dreadful for the last month.

Stubbs hasn’t been much better of late as there is no disputing that fact as he too hasn’t reached the Mendoza Line in August. Still, he has a slightly better batting average (.187) and OPS (.486) than Plouffe. He also has the same amount of homers, one, has scored three times as many runs (14 to five), and has killed Plouffe, destroyed him, with those massively relevant six steals.

Stubbs certainly has his faults, but the only way I would drop him in favor of Plouffe was if I desperately needed help at third or shortstop, but even then I’d be reluctant to drop Stubbs since his speed would likely make more of a difference over the final month than the power potential of Plouffe.

Tommy Hanson worth owning anymore?
– @thatkidslim

Hanson has been battling shoulder woes all year. His fastball velocity is down two mph, and at times he has had had a lot of trouble throwing strikes (his walk rate per nine is up nearly three quarters of a point from his career average at 2.88). He’s still striking out his share of batters though, his 8.00 K/9 mark is strong, but after two years with a K/BB ratio over 3.00 the mark is down a full point this year to 2.07, well below the league average (2.47). When you add into that diminished ratio a league average GB/FB (1.04), a slightly elevated HR/9 (1.27) and a league average 19.8 percent line drive rate, you get basically a league average pitcher. Unfortunately, it’s a bit worse than that. He does have 12 victories, but those ratios aren’t helping anyone (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). He’s also been pretty darn bad over his last six outings with a 6.82 ERA and 2.01 WHIP.

I don’t know the size of your league, or who you would replace him with, but it’s certainly worth investigating moving on, potentially for one of the two pitchers I’m about to discus…

Who is the better add Chris Tillman or Brett Anderson?
– @Derrickmartin

Tillman has been a star for the Orioles. In eight of 10 outings this season he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs, and if you remove those two rough outings his ERA would be 2.44 and his WHIP 1.01. Still, history says you should be very wary of Tillman. Over his first three seasons with the Orioles, 2009-11, he made 36 starts. Tillman went 7-15 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, a 5.78 K/9 an a 1.45 K/BB ratio. Those are awful numbers. Now it’s not that he is without talent, and most around baseball have been surprised that he had been unable to make the necessary adjustments. Has he made those adjustments this season? To this point the answer is an emphatic yes. His K/9 rate is up to 7.29, his walk rate at a career best, and the resulting 2.47 K/BB ratio is a massive step forward. At the same time it’s a league average number, as is his K/9 and his GB/FB (1.03). He’s also working with a career worst line drive rate (23.0 percent) that has somehow led to a career best .254 BABIP (career .294). His 3.26 ERA really should be a run higher, and given his track record in the bigs, it’s hard to think he will be able to keep up his current pace.

Anderson has been elite since returning from Tommy John Surgery. In two starts he’s won two games while allowing one run for the Athletics. Talk about hitting the ground running. Just like with Tillman, there’s no way the current trend will continue with Anderson. The difference between the two is twofold. (1) Anderson has had more success in the big leagues. (2) He’s a more highly skilled pitcher. Anderson has made 64 starts in the big leagues resulting in a 3.55 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Tillman has only pitched at that level for two months. Anderson also sports a 3.16 K/BB ratio for his career, which when coupled with his 1.84 GB/FB ratio marks Anderson as an arm every fantasy squad would want to own – provided his arm was healthy.

I’d go with Anderson. Tillman has the advantage in that he’s been healthy all year and isn’t coming back from elbow surgery, but Anderson is the more highly skilled and the more effective hurler. Just hope the A’s don’t limit his workload because he’s just a year removed from the surgery.

Saves aren’t an issue for me, but K/9 is. Should I drop Kenley Jansen or wait and see?
– @LKrukowski

Jansen has had a recurrence of his heart issue, one that kept him out of action for a month last season. The Dodgers haven’t said that they expect Jansen to miss a month this time, but obviously one has to question whether or not Jansen will be able to return this season as he’s been termed to be out “indefinitely.” Who will the Dodgers turn to in the 9th inning in the meantime? Ronald Belisario converted the Dodgers last save chance, and he has been great this year with a 2.84 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 47 Ks in 50.2 innings. On the flip side he has all of three saves in his career. He’s likely the lead horse in the race right now though. Brandon League, who had 37 saves last season for the Mariners, could also be in the mix. Though he has struggled since being dealt to the Dodgers with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 outings, he claims to have fixed a mechanical issue and has thrown 4-straight scoreless outings. The club could always recall Javy Guerra who has 29 saves for the Dodgers since the start of last season.

Should you hold on to Jansen? All depends on who you can add and where you are currently sitting in the standings. I will say that, given the uncertainty of his prognosis, that I would be reluctant to drop Jansen just yet. It’s also tough to suggest dropping a man who has 223 Ks in 137.1 innings leading to a 14.61 career K/9 mark which just so happens to be the second best mark in the history of the game for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125 innings in his career (Craig Kimbrel leads the way with a 15.63 mark).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 5: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Nelson Cruz (+29, $84K in DailyJoust salary)
How is this for a change – Cruz has been healthy but unproductive, the polar opposite of what we normally see from him. Cruz is sporting a sickly .216 batting average and his .269 OBP is only two points above his career batting average. Why the power outage? Good question. The past four years his HR/F ratio has been at least 15 percent. Currently it’s sitting at 6.5 percent. When that number rebounds, and it should, we could see some homers in bunches (over at Fleaflicker people seem to recognize that fact, just look at his percentage owned rate). Be wary though of a 5.9 percent BB-rate which would be a six year low and his 26.1 K-rate which would be a five year high.

Howie Kendrick (+16, $86K)
Kendrick boosted his average over .030 points in the past week but even so it’s still at just .275 (career .292). Howie has appeared in 26 of 29 games so far, and though he hasn’t been a standout my any means his current pace would equate to 22 homers and 61 RBI which would be a nice follow up to his 18-63 effort of last year. He’ll be solid and productive, but he could certainly stand to take a walk every once in a while (just three so far this season).

Carlos Lee (+15, $83K)
Boring but productive. That should be the name on the back of Lee’s jersey. Hitting .289 through 25 games, Lee’s current RBI pace would lead to 91 RBI over the course of 162 games (he has 14 in 25 games). The power has yet to show itself with only two bombs, but it’s just a matter of time before he hits a few balls into the seats. Don’t overlook Lee in the fantasy game, even if the ceiling is pretty low.

Jeff Samardzija (+49, $256K)
In 8.2 innings JS gave up 10 runs to the Cardinals and Marlins. In his other three starts he’s allowed two runs. The result is an impressive, though uneven, start to the year that has led the Cubs heat hucking righty to a 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 32 Ks in 31.2 innings. A bit more consistency would obviously be great, but Jeff’s transition to the starting rotation has gone about as well as could be expected (see that 3.20 K/BB rate).

Edinson Volquez (+85, $272K)
So far the 2012 season has been a success for Volquez. He has a 2.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through six starts which are numbers that harken back to his massive 2008 season in which he posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Volquez still has walked 18 batters in 37 innings, far too many, and he doesn’t have a victory thanks to the Padres terrible offense, but overall this has been an impressive start for the hard throwing righty.

Jered Weaver (+93, $466K)
A no-hitter boosts anyone’s value. Weaver also tossed six shutout innings in his previous start so he’s lowered his ERA to 1.61. He’s also walked seven batters in six outings leading to a 0.78 WHIP and he’s also whiffed 45 batters in 44.2 innings. Face it, the guy is one of a handful of arms in baseball that can legitimately be called an ace.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Yovani Gallardo (-37, $195K)
Last year Gallardo had games in which he gave up seven, six, six an eight earned runs. He still finished the year with a 3.52 ERA. The fact is that Gallardo is as up and down as pretty much any elite level arm in the league. However, when the season is over the numbers are always impressive. Consider that in each of the past three years he’s won at least 13 games with and ERA under 3.85 an at least 200 Ks. His ERA might be 5.79 and that WHIP ghastly at 1.65 but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if we saw the numbers we have come to expect from Yovani by the end of the year.

Roy Halladay (-46, $278K)
Bombed in his last outing (eight earned runs), Halladay should be fine. However, I’m slightly concerned about the lost two mph of velocity that Halladay is dealing with. His current K/9 rate of 6.17 is well below his career rate of 6.87, and he’s been over 7.50 each of the past four years. Could be a sample size thing, but it’s something to keep a close eye on since Halladay has thrown so many pitches the past six years (at least 220 innings each season). He’ll be fine of course, but we’ve likely seen the best he has to offer.

Tommy Hanson (-47, $231K)
Hanson’s K/9 rate of 8.29 is just off his 8.42 career rate, impressive considering that his fastball is still down two mph from his career rate. I’m also a big fan of his 47.3 percent ground ball rate, a significant improvement over his 41.1 career mark. There’s also the career best 15.1 line drive rate. Basically, batters aren’t making hard contact. Still, you’d be hard pressed to realize that unless you looked at his BABIP that is way too high at .330 (career .282). Would seem like a nice buy low opportunity, especially if the velocity returns.

Jonathon Niese (-101, $173K)
His first four outings were at least six innings before his three inning stinker last time out. Still, this is a guy with a solid K/9 rate (7.53) and BB/K (2.67) and he’s continuing to generate a lot of grounders with a 52.4 percent mark there. This is not an elite skill set by any means but pitchers with worse skills have enjoyed a lot of long-term success at the big league level.

Joe Saunders (-21, $338K)
Amazed I am at his start. He’s been so good that allowing two earned runs actually resulted in his salary going up. Through five starts he has produced a quality start each time leading to a 1.24 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. I know, pretty amazing. He has no chance of ending the year with a number in either category that that’s within shouting distance of where he is at, but that’s not going to take away from what has been a special start. Ride the wave baby, but be sure to have your life vest handy.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Billy Butler: Guess who loves to see the mustached one, Carl Pavano, toeing the rubber? This guy. Butler has hit .429 with a 1.124 OPS against the Twins’ righty in his career, and we’re talking 21 hits in 49 at-bats making those numbers pretty imposing. Toss in two homers and nine RBI and you should be giddy with Butler in your lineup.

Chipper Jones: Around an around the wheel spins, and where it stops no one knows. Will it stop on Chipper being IN or OUT of the lineup Friday? Who knows as this situation is about as dicey as your local weather forecaster who, inevitably, somehow ends up being off by 15 degrees when they tell you what the temperature will be. If Chipper plays he has a great matchup with 13 hits in 37 at-bats, a .351 average, with two homers and six RBI against A.J. Burnett.

Hunter Pence: Paul Maholm often posses little difficulty for the elite hitters in the game, so it’s hardly a surprise that a guy like Pence has had success against the Cubs hurler. In 44 career at-bats Pence has hit .318 with two bombs and nine RBI spread out over 44 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

John Danks: Normally I wouldn’t suggest starting a pitcher against the Red Sox, but the team is a mess right now. No Ellsbury or Crawford, Ross has a knee issue, they’ve got the off the field turmoil, all of that would seem to make Danks a passable play. Current Sox batters have a .186 batting average against Danks, not to mention that he has a 2.82 ERA over his last 30 innings against the Red Sox.

Tommy Hanson: He’s made four starts this season an only once has he allowed more than two runs. He’s also won two of his last three decisions, and on the year he has 23 Ks in 24 innings pitched. When you toss in the gravy on top of that turkey dinner, the competition, it’s a meal you’ll want to saddle up to the table to eat. His opponent Friday is the Pirates, a team hitting .221 with 41 runs scored, 18 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.

Corey Luebke: He’s starting against the Giants, and in general, that’s usually a good thing for a pitcher. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two starts, and that he’s allowed a total of two runs over his last three starts to drop his ERA to 2.52 and now we’re cooking with gas. You might pause to start him when you realize the game is being played in San Francisco, but that’s only because you haven’t looked at the numbers. In his career at home he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, impressive numbers to be sure, but no match for his work on the road (2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Orlando Hudson: Yes he is hitting .206, and he is also facing Tim Lincecum Saturday. So why in the world is he listed here as a potential play? Surprisingly, O-Dog has 10 hits in 27 at-bats against The Freak, a .370 average. Hey, if you really think that Lincecum is that awful then you don’t have a problem starting Hudson, do you?

Grady Sizemore: He is hitting .550 with three homers in 20 at-bats against Dan Haren… oh, sorry.

Paul Konerko: The White Sox first sacker, who just blasted his 400th career homer, has enjoyed a ton of success against Jon Lester who also happens to be struggling to find any consistency this year on the hill. That make Konerko, who is hitting .389 with three homers and six RBI against Lester (18 at-bats) a solid play.

Danny Valencia: Not a name you probably figured you would be reading about, but when a guy has nine hits in 18 at-bats against someone (Bruce Chen) people tend to take notice. He hasn’t taken the lefty deep but he does have five RBI and just one punchout in their matchups.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Colby Lewis: Not only is Lewis 3-0 against the Rays with 15 Ks in 17.1 innings in his career, he’s off to a blazing start this year with a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 24 Ks in 26.2 innings. He’s also not beating himself with only one free pass issued proving that he’s about as locked in as any hurler in the game right now.

Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays hurler has a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the year, but only 12 strikeouts through four starts causing some people to be a bit nervous. He should be able to turn that worry on its ear given that he faces a Mariners club that he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13 innings against. He’s 2-0 against the Mariners while posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Anibal Sanchez: This righty has made five starts against the D’backs to the tune of a 3-1 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 31 Ks in 34 innings. He’s allowed only two runs in each of his three starts this year. Seems like a recipe for success, does it not?

CONTEST

Are you ready to test your fantasy baseball acumen against one of the best in the business? Well you may not ever get the chance to do that, but I can guarantee that you will have your chance to take on Ray Flowers, me, in the BaseballGuys / DailyJoust $250 Free Roll this Friday, April 27th.

There’s still time to sign up. Click on the link to participate, for Free, to win $ and to get bragging rights if you can beat me.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

LABR: An Experts Take

The League of Alternative Baseball Reality, or LABR for short, just completed the 19th draft in the history of the event (12 experts drafted in the American League, and 13 in the National League, this past weekend in Phoenix). I was graciously invited to the NL-only draft, thank you to Steve Gardner for that (you can read Steve’s thoughts on the draft in this piece), and though my team has been roundly lambasted since the drafts completion I still had a great time at the event and look forward to the marathon that is the baseball season. Before I offer some thoughts on the draft, here’s who I was able to roster on my squad (for a look at the entire auction here is a Google Doc with all the selections).

C: Wilin Rosario ($8), David Ross (2)
1B: Garret Jones (10)
2B: Daniel Murphy (17)
3B: Placido Polanco (10)
SS: Rafael Furcal (12)
MI: Chris Nelson (4)
CI: Derrek Lee (3)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (33), Dexter Fowler (19), Chris Young (20), Alfonso Soriano (10), Carlos Quentin (13)
UT: Nate McLouth (4)

PITCHERS: Madison Bumgarner (19), Tommy Hanson (14), Rafael Betancourt (16), Wandy Rodriguez (10), Gio Gonzalez (13), Sergio Romo (6), Luke Gregerson (3), Takashi Saito (2), Jeff Samardzija (1), Erik Surkamp (1)

BENCH: Ross Detwiler, Rick Ankiel, Blake DeWitt, Tom Gorzelanny, Logan Forsythe, J.D. Drew

Some general notes.

In this league trading is allowed. That might be something I will need to explore to bolster some areas of weakness.

There is an odd quirk in LABR. All players that were drafted at the auction table need to be in your active roster. The only want to remove a player from your lineup is if he is placed on the DL or demoted to the minors, or of course you can always just cut a player. However, if Dexter Fowler is hitting .199 in April I can’t just put him on the bench, he has to remain active (Chris Liss of Rotowire.com won the AL-Only league last year despite having to hold on to Adam Dunn all year).

As for my team…

Yes I left money on the table, and yes that was a mistake. I’d pinpoint two areas where I should have spent more. (1) I should have added Aaron Hill up the middle. I backed out at $14 and Wolf/Colton rostered him for $15. If I had gotten Hill the last quarter of my team would have looked different, but I certainly could have used him given my lack of infield strength. (2) I should have gone the extra dollar on either Ryan Dempster or Ricky Nolasco who went for $9. Could have also gone the extra dollar on Chris Volstad who I let go (maybe a few bucks to Roy Oswalt would have been nice too). Everyone who follows my work knows I’m a fan of both. Instead, I ended up with Erik Surkamp as my final starter.

Everyone is bashing me for my weak infield, and I can certainly see why there is concern. A big key for me is obviously what happens with Derrek Lee. If he signs with someone a 20 homer, 70 RBI season would be huge for my club. However, he might retire, he might end up in the AL or he might end up playing as a part timer in the NL. People have also questioned my catchers, and with good reason. But to be fair, catchers were going for some pretty high dollar amounts. Would you have paid $10 for Jonathan Lucroy, $8 for Ryan Hanigan or $5 for Jason Castro? Maybe, maybe not, right? Another key is the health of Rafael Furcal and Placido Polanco. If they play 135 games each then this situation looks a lot better. If they don’t, look out below.

Is the infield weak? Yes it is, but I think some have overlooked the strength of my outfield. For my money, it’s the best group in the league. There might be valid concerns with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Quentin, but if the both hit 25 homers with 80 RBIs, as my 4th and 5th outfielders in an NL-only league, that’s pretty damn good. Chris Young might hit .240, but he’s also been a 20/20 guy three of the last five years while averaging 91 runs scored a season the past two years. At this point everyone knows I’m on the Dexter Fowler train, I might be the conductor, but I really have high hopes for him putting it all together for a full season. And then there is Andrew McCutchen who is a wonderful foundational building block.

On the hill, I love my top-4 arms: MadBum, Hanson, Wandy and Gonzalez. I took a risk on Hanson, but I thought at $14 it was worth it even with the health concerns. As for Gio, I’m shocked I got him actually. I threw him out there for $13 fully expecting him to go for at least $18. Ten seconds later he was part of my team. Funny thing, after the :10 seconds of silence when no one pushed his bid up I then heard three teams at the table say that he was a great buy.

I overpaid for Rafael Betancourt at $16. This was another mistake I made – i.e. I waited to long to jump into the closer mix. I incorrectly thought that people would grow weary of paying $15 for every closer that was thrown out for bid. They didn’t. At the point I added Betancourt he was the only legitimate closer left on the board other than a guy like Frank Francisco, so I was forced to overpay to add Rafael who has elite skills but has never shown the ability to work the 9th inning before the last month of 2012. I should have jumped into the closer mix earlier – I might have saved a few bucks.

In the end, the truth is every team in an NL-only league with 13 clubs is going to have holes. Hopefully things break right for me an I’m in contention late. If not, I’ll review all the correct an incorrect decisions I made over the course of the season and come back even more prepared in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

The Old, The Young and The Pretty

Chris Carpenter was traded. Tommy Hanson has a concussion. Matt Moore won’t have an innings pitched limit. The Dodgers named their closer, an it’s not who you think. Raul Ibanez is a Yankee. Katharine McPhee is… well you have to keep reading for that.

RHP Chris Carpenter was traded to the Red Sox today. I know, crazy isn’t it? Oh wait, we’re talking about the 26 year old former Cub, not the Cy Young winning Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. How made are you at me right now?

Tommy Hanson, who is attempting to return from shoulder woes, has reworked his mechanics to take better advantage of his lower half (i.e. his legs). While that sounds like a good thing, mechanical alterations for pitcher’s always make me a bit nervous. Now we get word that Hanson was involved in a car accident yesterday and that he received a Grade 1 concussion that will likely preclude him from doing anything for a few days. I know it’s early, but are you getting the unsettling feeling that things may not go Hanson’s way this year?

Raul Ibanez signed a one year deal for $1.1 million to join the Yankees. The 39 year old Ibanez is nothing more than an AL-only play at this stage of his career. The expectation at this point is that he will form a solid DH duo with Andruw Jones. If we combine the 2011 production of Jones against lefties and Ibanez against righties the result would be a “player” who produced the following 5×5 line: .263-24-85-36-2. The homer and RBI production is solid, but what is it with these guys aversion to crossing home plate?

Ever do situps first thing in the morning? I tried it today, an I gotta tell ya, not a huge fan. Of course, I have to keep the temple that is my body in shape, so I did it anyway while reading the newspaper (yeah I’m one of those dinosaurs who actually gets a newspaper).

Don Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times Tuesday that “I’m going into camp thinking Javy Guerra is the guy.” Of course he meant the 9th inning arm for the Dodgers. I know that Kenley Jansen has a huge arm, and I’m a big proponent of the record setting fireballer (see the October 6th Around the Horn), but Guerra did stabilize a Dodgers’ bullpen that was a disaster last year and in the process he only blew two of 23 save chances. With the announcement today I wonder if people will change their drafting strategy since Jansen’s ADP is 176, roughly 60 picks ahead of Guerra (233) – numbers are from MockDraftCentral.

Big news out of the Rays camp Tuesday is that the club will not have an innings pitched limit for phenom Matt Moore. Executive VP Andrew Friedman said that the arm of Moore has been “built up in a pretty systematic way” which would seem to signal that he could be allowed to toss 200-innings this year. The Rays have certainly shown the ability to develop pitching over the years so I’m inclined to trust them here. If Moore does throw 200 innings he’ll finish the year as a top-10 AL strikeout arm who could live up the billing that has his current ADP sitting at 102.4.

Manny Ramirez will arrive at Athletics camp on Friday. He’ll make $306,000 on his pro-rated contract which tells you that he really is intent on returning to the game because a guy who has made nearly $207 million in his career certainly doesn’t need a few more bucks. He’s an AL-only grab, but he did hit .298 with a .870 OPS in 90 games in 2010 so he might be worth a reserve round add.

I admit it, I’ve watched the first two episodes of Smash (albeit with the controller in my hand to fast forward the slow parts). I know that Katharine McPhee never really made it as a singer, but something about her persona on screen is certainly enticing.

Johan Santana is throwing without pain, an everyone is getting excited. Let me say it again – don’t be one of that group.  He’s coming back off major shoulder surgery and his performance has dipped year over year the past few seasons. Let him be a headache for someone else.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August25, 2011

(1)  Tommy Hanson – more tests on shoulder.

(2) Aramis Ramirez – absolutely on fire.

(3) Waiver-wire claims: Jim Thome, Heath Bell, Carlos Pena. For more see Waiver-Wire Claims.

(4) Carlos Ruiz has 5-straight two hit games.

(5) Matt Wieters showing signs of improvement.

(6) Carl Crawford finally hitting like… Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers