K-BAD 2011: PART I

I was fortunate to be invited back to KFFL’s Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft, K-BAD for short, for the second straight year. Last year, despite some injury and poor performance, I was able to grab third place in the league, a mere 0.5 points out of second place (you can see the team I drafted by visiting 2010 K-BAD: PART III. This year I am back to finish at the top of the heap.

In what follows you’ll see the players I chose for the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league, as well as being able to read my thoughts on why I chose the players that I did. For a full review of the entire league and what the other owners were thinking while they were making their selections (there are certainliy some big name participants in the draft), make sure you visit the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 1-8: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers.
Braun should be a top-5 selection in all drafts (I had him at #3 overall in The Top-25 for 2011), so I was exceedingly pleased to take him 8th overall. In each of his four seasons Braun has produced a 5×5 line of at least .285-25-97-91-14. Only four men reached those totals in 2010 – and those are Braun’s career worst totals.

Round 2-5: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies.
In my book Utley is still the top dog at second, ever so slightly ahead of Robinson Cano because of his steal potential (you can see my argument in Top-10 2B for 2011). Injured last season, Utley was still on pace for 22 homers, 88 RBI, 101 runs and 18 thefts if he had played 155 games.

Round 3-8: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates.
I didn’t think McCutchen would make it back to me next round, so I figured I might as well make a move now if I wanted to roster this luminous talent. The Pirates dampen his outlook somewhat, but Andrew is one of those players who can be a five category contributor with the potential to blow up in 2012.

Round 4-5: Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox.
I almost took the plunge on Ian Kinsler, but with Chase Utley already on board at second, I went for the mind numbing consistency of Dunn. I’ll take the 40 homers and 100 RBI that he will produce knowing he could push 50 dingers in his new home in Chicago.

Round 5-8: CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees.
I never go pitching this early in 12 team drafts, but I couldn’t pass up the value that Sabathia brings given this draft spot after 2-straight seasons of at least 19 wins, 197 Ks and a 1.19 WHIP. I’ll wait on outfielders and hopefully get one of my targets next round.

Round 6-5: B.J. Upton, OF, Rays .
Sweet. Upton was one of three outfielders I almost took in the fifth round, so taking Sabathia with my last pick didn’t hinder me in the least. Shane Victorino is a safer selection than Upton, but one of these days Upton is gonna to have a monster season. Will it be 2011?

Round 7-8: Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves.
I never take two SPs in my first seven choices – never – but when Martin Prado and Stephen Drew were taken right before me I went with Hanson. Not seeing any hitters who stuck out, I figured I’d take the top SP on my board and then head back to offense in the next couple of rounds.

Round 8-5: Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles.
I really wanted to take Ben Zobrist for the positional flexibility, but third base was getting thin fast. Plus, I already have a second sacker in Utley. I think there’s still talent at the seocnd base position, so I’ll wait to add up the middle strength until the next round.

Round 9-8: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays.
This draft is playing out exactly as I hoped. I took Mark Reynolds last round hoping to wait for my MI option, and the strategy worked to perfection as I grabbed Zobrist. I was tempted to take Howie Kendrick, but dual position eligibility swung my selection to Zobrist.

Round 10-5: Joakim Soria RP, Royals.
I really like having one closer I can count on, and Soria is an absolute beast. I also figured that my selection of a closer would cause others to target the bullpen hopefully letting others I covet to fall to me in the 11th round (Note: I was right as Neftali Felix, Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera were taken in the next six picks).

In PART II, I’ll continue my review of the squad.

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Points Based System

Average Draft Position data is all the rage at this time of year as everyone is scouring drafts to see how others evaluate players. However, the overwhelming majority of that ADP data is derived from standard 5×5 scoring formats. What about those points based leagues that seem to be growing in popularity? Today, I’ll relay how a recent draft in this setup went for me (special thanks goes out to SportsIllustrated.com which asked me to participate in the mock draft. For those of you who aren’t aware, I write a weekly mailbag piece for SI.com that appears on Wednesday’s, and I also write a Monday column for them about fantasy hockey for those of you who are fans of the ice).

League Setup

The league is a 12 teamer, though in a bit of a change there is only one starting catcher, three outfielders, no corner and middle infielders, and there are set spots for the pitchers.

Hitters: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitchers: SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP
Bench: Five spots
Rosters set once weekly.

Despite that, what really sets this league apart from others is the scoring system. This league is a points based setup with the following parameters.

OFFENSE

* Single (1 pt), double (2 pts), triple (3 pts) homer (4 pts)
* The following all net one point: walk, HBP, run, RBI
* You get two points for a stolen base.
* If you are caught stealing it’s a (-1), and strikeouts are (-0.5).

PITCHING

* 7 points for win or save.
* 3 points for a quality start or inning pitched
* 0.5 points for a strikeout.
* (-1) point for a walk, earned run, hit allowed, hit batter.
* (-5) points for a loss.

Given this scoring setup starting pitchers that win games and pitch a lot of innings are worth a ton, and that explains why 10 starting pitchers were drafted in the first 34 picks and 14 in the first 48 overall on the draft. This points out what I always talk about – you have to know the scoring system and positional setup of your league when you attempt to evaluate players. In addition to the fact that pitchers went early, catchers went late. Why would you dive in early on catchers if you only need to start one? Moreover, speedsters like Juan Pierre and Michael Bourn have a ton of value in 4×4 and 5×5 leagues, but in this setup 50 steals only nets you as many points as 25 homers (100 each). Actually, that isn’t true. Don’t forget you are awarded a point for runs and RBI which means that 25 homers actually equals 150 points (100 for homers, 25 for runs, 25 for RBI). Of course, that doesn’t count the other runners the batter might knock in on the homer. That’s why I was able to grab Pierre in the 20th round at the 230th pick even though his 5×5 ADP is something like 135 – the scoring system simply dictated that Pierre wasn’t as valuable in this league.

My Team

C: Kurt Suzuki (12th round)
1B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
2B: Chase Utley (2)
3B: Casey McGehee (11)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (6)
OF: Matt Holliday (3), Shane Victorino (8), Hunter Pence (9)
UT: Howie Kendrick (18)
SP: Dan Haren (4), Tommy Hanson (5), Chad Billingsley (7), Ryan Dempster (10), Ricky Nolasco (14)
RP: Jonathan Broxton (13), Matt Thornton (15)
Bench: James Shields (16), Joel Hanrahan (17), Gavin Floyd (19), Juan Pierre (20), Jhonny Peralta (21)

Some general thoughts.

* Jhonny Peralta isn’t exciting, but given the shallow bench in this league his 3B/SS eligibility is a big factor.

* My relievers are highly skilled but uncertain to rack up saves. That’s what happens when you draft this early, you just aren’t sure about roles. However, as you know from How to Evaluate Relievers piece I like to target skills over roles anyway. Also, I almost grabbed Brian Duensing as my last pitcher. Why? Because in this league he qualifies as a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher. Remember, check those rules (I went with Hanrahan because I truly believe he will close for Pirates and have a strong season).

* I really like the offense, except for third base. There’s nothing wrong with McGehee, but last season is as good as it gets, and I don’t know if there is anything more he can given in the HR or RBI columns. Still, he was the best option left at the time, and I don’t regret passing on Michael Young to add Dempster in this format.

* My starters are strong. Last season’s numbers, in this scoring format, would equal some big points totals for Haren (12 wins, 216 Ks, 235 IP), Hanson (10, 173, 202.2), Billingsley (12, 171, 191.2) and Dempster (15, 208, 215.1). Heck, even Shields was pretty solid in those three categories (13, 187, 203.1).

So there it is. Remember to check those rules and positional parameters when putting together your cheat sheet – certain setups can really alter the value of certain players.

FINAL NOTE: Here is a review of the entire draft which took place at CBS Sportsline.

By Ray Flowers

Breaking Down the NL

I wrote my weekly National League breakdown piece today. Here are a few of the tidbits that really stuck out for me.

* Daniel Hudson leads the NL with 79.2 innings pitched since August 1st.

* Tommy Hanson has a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He is 2-6 in that time.

* Carlos Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.63 ERA over his last 12 appearances.

* Scott Rolen has 20 homers on the year but only three in his last 50 games.

* Melvin Mora is hitting .325 with 17 RBI in the month of September.

* Clay Hensley has a 2.25 ERA and a K per inning over 72 frames.

* Bud Norris has 152 Ks over 147.2 innings.

* Rod Barajas has five homers in 59 at-bats with the Dodgers.

* Randy Wolf has a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts.

* Carlos Beltran is hitting .329 with a .991 OPS in the month of September.

* Ryan Madson has made 42 appearances since the All-Star break with a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.

* The Pirates have only only player who is hitting above .250 while qualifying for the batting title (502 plate appearances). It’s Andrew McCutchen at .284.

* Jon Jay is hitting a mere .214 over his last 25 games.

* Will Venable is batting an insane .529 over his last nine starts.

*Aubrey Huff is leading the Giants in the Triple Crown categories (.291-26-85).

* Adam Dunn has at least 37 homers and 92 RBI in 7-straight years. There has only been one longer streak in the annals of the game; Rafael Palmeiro had a stretch of 9-straight years from 1995-2003.

To read the entire article click on the link to National League Breakdown.

Anyone out there notice that Mark Ellis is hitting .400 in September? His season has been a disappointment with only four homers and six steals after back-to-back 10/10 efforts the past two years, but his .281 batting would be his best mark since a career best effort of .316 in 2005.

What the heck is wrong with Jonathan Papelbon? It’s always hard to judge relievers on the fly given how small of a sample size we have to deal with, but his work of late has been awful – and that is with a capital “A.” He has made nine appearances in September during which time he has a 10.61 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP and a .372 BAA. At the same time he has a rather amazing total of 18 punchouts in just 9.1 innings. His late push in the K category has upped his season long K/9 mark to 10.11, his fourth straight year above ten, though his BB/9 mark is a career worst of 3.69 (more than a run above his 2.55 career mark). I tend to think he is just missing his spots right now, though this late season run of putrid production clearly won’t lock him into the 9th inning next season, not when Daniel Bard continues to deal. Bard has more than a K per inning this season (73 in 72.1 IP), owns a 1.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and has been amazingly effective in his two season big league career (2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, .199 BAA).

Justin Upton’s season is likely over because of that shoulder injury of his. He is visiting Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion today, but with a week left there is zero reason for him to return to game action even if he gets a positive report. That means he will finish the year with a .273 average, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 73 runs and 17 steals in 132 games. Every one of those numbers is smaller than his effort from 2009 (.300-26-86-84-20 in 138 games). In fact, his OPS dropped exactly .100 points down to .799 as he racked up 15 more punchouts (152). Still, he could be undervalued on draft day next season as he clearly has 30 homer, 20 steal potential.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May20, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron appear on track to return by next week.

(2) Giants to call up Eric Hacker instead of Madison Bumgarner?

(3) Ian Snell into Mariners rotation in place of RRS.

(4) Tommy Hanson allows eight runs – ERA goes from 2.88 to 4.18.

(5) Mike Leake hurls 7th quality start in eight outings.

(6) Jorge Posada to DL. Will be replaced by Francisco Cervelli.

(7) Mike Gonzalez faces batters.

(8) Kerry Wood’s epic struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag Mania

Another day, another couple of emails to answer. Hey, you wouldn’t expect anything different from me would you? You all know that I’m here for all of you (how sweet huh?), and I happily answer all the questions I receive, even if it takes me a day or two. Let’s get to it before you start hearing violin’s playing.

I’ve been offered Paul Konerko and Cole Hamels for Tommy Hanson in a 3 man keeper league. I’m currently in 1st place in my division and I have Garret Jones as my current 1st baseman. The balance of my pitching staff is – Greinke, Billingsley, Jimenez, Garza, Brett Anderson, and Slowey (DL).

Here is the balance of my roster: Sandoval, Phillips, G. Jones, Rollins, Youkilis, Markakis, Pence, Hart, Ibanez, N. Cruz, R. Gutierrez, McCutchen, Prado
– Alan

The first thing to keep in mind here is that you can only keep a certain amount of players in any keeper league. Having young talent is obviously a major goal in such a set up, but if you can only protect a handful of guys from year-to-year it doesn’t make any sense to compile a roster of 10 first or second year players unless they can help you win today.

In this case, we have just such a situation. Based upon the statement given, each team can only protect three players. Therefore, trades should be made much more for today, versus next season, in many cases. Someone might want to keep Tommy Hanson in such a league, but honestly, that’s way more of a risk than I would consider. Why? Let’s assume this is a 12-team mixed league. Heck, let’s assume this is a 15-team mixed league. If each team can protect only three guys from year-to-year that means that in order to protect Hanson for next season you would need to view him as one of the top-45 players in the game. I’m certainly not there. Heck, you already have Zack Greinke and Chad Billingsley to choose from if you want to protect a pitcher for 2010, and I would without question protect both of them over Hanson.

Would I therefore accept the deal? You bet I would – though realize you will have to make a secondary move in order to create space no your roster for the two men you will be receiving. Hamels is in line for a strong second half if you ask me, especially when you consider that he has a .344 BABIP mark, far too high, especially for a man who owns a superb 4.74 K/BB mark. And don’t overlook the bounce back season of Konerko (.296-18-64) who is hitting .322 with five homers and 15 RBI in his last 15 games.

Who would you recommend out of the following pitcher available (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV), keeper league:

Brett Anderson
Jonathan Sanchez
Jeff Niemann
Manny Parra
C.J. Wilson

My pitching staff looks like this: Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Scott Baker, Jorge De La Rosa, Phil Hughes, J.P. Howell, DL – Lindstrom, DL – Wang, DL – Maine

Should I just wait for Lindstrom and Wang to come off the DL and not use up the waiver move (only have 3 left for the year)?
– Matthew, Toronto

Not knowing how many players can be kept, I’m at a bit of a loss here to recommend a guy.

If you are looking to add a guy to help right now, Jeff Niemann has been pretty good of late with a victory in each of his last five decisions as his ERA has fallen from 4.53 on May 23rd to 3.61.

Jonathan Sanchez has thrown consecutive “quality starts” including that no-hitter, but it’s tough to recommend a guy who has walked 47 batters in 84.2 innings.

Brett Anderson has allowed just one run in his last four appearances totaling 26.1 innings to drop his ERA to 4.25. Still, the youngster needs to prove he can handle the grind of a full season.

Manny Parra has looked rejuvenated since he returned to the Brewers allowing only one run over 13 innings while walking only four men.

C.J. Wilson continues to get save chances as Frank Francisco just cannot stay on the field. He owns a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.17 K/BB mark, merely average for a late inning reliever.

Chien-Ming Wang, I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but at the same time he has been so awful I would just leave him on the DL until he proved worthy of activation.

Matt Lindstrom continues to progress from his elbow issues and hopes to be back within two weeks, max. Still, I want to see him prove his worth as well before I activate him.

You have two choices Matt. You can grab Wilson since you currently have only one closer on your roster. However, that might indicate that you have decided to “punt” saves in which case there is little reason to add Wilson, especially since he isn’t likely to hold on to the job the rest of the way (Francisco is getting over a bout of pneumonia). Therefore I would recommend picking up Jeff Niemann. He clearly doesn’t have an upside remotely approaching the others, but I see Anderson, Sanchez and Parra as having more downside than the man from the Rays.

And finally —

Kudos to Mark Buehrle who threw just the 18th perfect game in baseball history today (including Don Larson’s outing in the 1956 World Series). Buehrle should name his next kid after DeWayne Wise who caught what would have been a home run as he crashed into the wall in the bottom of the ninth inning (he was a defensive replacement in the ninth by the way). What a game. Take that retirement talk.

By Ray Flowers

McLouth Traded to Braves

The Braves, desperate for a big stick to add to the outfield mix, have acquired Nate McLouth from the Pirates in exchange for three minor league prospects not named Tommy Hanson or Kris Medlen in a huge move that shook the baseball universe late on Wednesday night.

The Braves recently came to the realization that Jordan Schafer and his .204 average and 63 strikeouts in 167 at-bats wasn’t big league ready, so they sent him down to the minors recently which left the club one bat short in the outfield. The Braves, in desperate need of some pop considering that the team leaders in home runs have just five – Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar (and as you obviously surmised none of those guys is an outfielder), were looking to make a big move. As such, reports are that the Braves sent pitchers Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke as well as outfielder Gorkys Hernandez to the Pirates for their best player, McLouth, an outfielder with power, perfectly fitting the Braves’ need.

Nate McLouth hit .276 with 26 home runs and 94 RBI in 2008 as he also managed to scored 113 runs while swiping 23 bases. As such, he was one of just four 25/25 men in the bigs – the others being some fairly significant names: Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran. Though he has battled some injuries this season, McLouth is still working on a pace that would net him roughly 30 home runs, 115 RBI, 95 runs and 25 steals, a virtually repeat of his 2008 campaign. Sure his average is a bit down at .256, but that should reverse itself when his “luck” changes. By luck I mean when his BABIP, just .262, returns to his career level of .285, and his line drive rate, currently just 13.6%, also picks up and returns to his traditional level of 18.8%, that average of McLouth’s should rise a bit at least returning to the realm of respectable even if he doesn’t push the .290 or .300 mark.

As for the lineup change, McLouth figures to become one of the centerpieces of what could be a tremendous 3-4-5 in the heart of the Braves lineup with Chipper and Brian McCann. That obviously bodes well for his outlook. In addition, he moves from a park in Pittsburgh that is currently 19th according to Park Factors in runs scored to a park that is 15th. That isn’t a huge improvement, but it should help a bit. However, he is also going from the park that was 11th according to Park Indices in 2008 in the NL in home runs for left-handed batters to the park that ranked 13th. That’s pretty much a wash, though hitting in a better lineup with a team vying for a playoff spot should certainly offer a boost to a guy who has played for an outright loser his whole life.

As for the Pirates, this team, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 1992 when Barry Bonds roamed their outfield, has once again traded a franchise building block for future promise. At some point the fans in that wonderful city are just going to have to give up and cheer for the Steelers year round as it’s clear that the baseball team just isn’t wiling to do what is necessary to field a championship caliber team on the diamond. My heart goes out to you Pirates fans. Maybe it isn’t too late to cheer the Penguins on as they try to come back against the Red Wings to win the Stanley Cup.

By Ray Flowers

Odd Decisions Run Wild

I don’t quite get it. Of course, I can be alternative dense and obtuse, just ask some of the women that have been unfortunate enough to have been forced to endure a date with me when there wasn’t the option of getting drunk to dull the pain. After I finish my mini-rant on how baseball continues to screw things up, I’ll spend a moment detailing perhaps the top two minors league pitchers in each league and give a little run down on how they are doing toiling away riding buses instead of finding themselves flying in first class (I’ve never flown in first class, have you? I’m 6’3″ so I’m sure I would enjoy the extra space because I usually end up squished between someone who is overweight and someone who wants to share with me their entire life story. Speaking of planes, why can’t I ever end up in the same row as the hottie that always ends up three rows in front of me?)

Milton Bradley had his suspension reduced from two games to one after filing an appeal for a confrontation that he had with an umpire while arguing a called third strike. Two points. (1) The event occurred on April 16th. What the hell took so long to come to a resolution? Players certainly have the right to the defend themselves in the process, but has anyone heard of a conference call or a webcam? It this day and age of technology taking a month to adjudicate this matter is simply laughable. (2) What is the point of MLB issuing any suspensions when they are ALWAYS, and I mean always, reduced? What gives? Do you think I could say to the judge at traffic court ‘I know I ran that stop sign, and I know the fine is $185, but you know, I really didn’t mean to do it, and I promise to behave moving forward, so could you reduce the fine to $100?’ Seriously? Whatever a player gets for a suspension, just cut that number by half and you will usually end up with the actual number of games he will end up serving (Jermaine Dye was suspended for two games after firing his helmet down in disgust only to have the helmet flip up and hit the umpire. Of course he appealed so he will continue playing for now, but regardless, expect his suspension to be reduced to one game). My question is, if the player committed an act that leads to a suspension of X many games, why does he even get an appeal, or better yet, why does the appeal always end up in a reduced sentence? I’m glad baseball doesn’t adjudicate criminal matters or there might not be a single criminal in jail.

Jo-Jo Reyes has been removed from the Braves’ starting rotation, hardly a shock when you consider that he is 0-2 with a 6.58 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through five starts (he is 0-9 with a 6.58 ERA covering his last 18 starts). So this means that the Tommy Hanson era is upon us, right? Wrong. The Braves chose instead to call up Kris Medlin from Triple-A where the 23 year old has been lights out with a 4-0 record and a 1.07 ERA. Oh yeah, he hasn’t allowed a run in 19.2 innings. As for Hanson, he will continue to bide his time a bit longer despite a 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 12.61 K/9 mark in seven starts at Triple-A. Not sure what else the kid can do to earn a call up really.

David Price, everyone’s fantasy darling this season as the next big lefty to make his mark on the majors – well those plans were put on hold when the club decided to send him to the minors to get him some more seasoning as well as to find spots for a handful of pitchers at the big league level that would have had to have been placed on waivers if Price was left on the big league roster. Still, everyone assumed that Price would make a handful of starts, dominate, and then return to the Rays, but things haven’t gone remotely to plan thus far. Working at Triple-A, Price is a mere 1-4 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.50 ERA through seven starts. He does have 26 K in 29.1 innings, but with 16 walks his K/BB mark is a poor 1.63. In addition, the club has been very careful with his pitch count having not once allowed him to throw more than five innings, though to be fair it’s not like he has been lights out or anything and deserved to go more than five innings in most outings. Still, his level of struggles just go to show you that this game is not an exact science, and no matter how much talent you have it’s never as easy as just throwing your glove out on the field.