Pitching on Trial

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The mighty has fallen. It may not be as depressing as the fact that the house you bought for $300,000 dollars two years ago might sell for $225,000 today, but in fantasy circles the loss was just as severe. Stephen Strasburg suffered a substantially torn ulnar collateral ligament, and what that means is that there is an exceedingly high probability that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. I already wrote about the ramifications of this situation in Five Questions: Is Strasburg Finished?, but I wanted to expand on something I only briefly mentioned in that piece – and that is the way that organizations baby their pitchers. Is there any benefit to this recent practice?

It has become a comical situation really. Teams are so worried about protecting their investments that they treat them as if they were made out of paper mache. In fact, the level of injury in today’s pitcher seems to be much higher than it was in years past despite the advent of advanced physical training and medical proficiency. How is it that guys who are bigger, stronger, more reliably trained, and more closely watched than ever before break down more quickly than at any point in the past? I just don’t get it.

In the case of the Nationals, the team counted everything Strasburg did with the attention of an auditor from the government who is trying to extract every penny from your wallet. They never let him toss more than 99 pitches in a big league game, and only twice was he allowed to log even seven innings in an outing. A lot of good that all that monitoring did for Mr. Strasburg.

At the other end of the spectrum we have his teammate, Livan Hernandez, who has never missed a buffet in his life – yet he continues to roll on basically injury free. Listed as 35 years old, he might actually be 40 for all we know, Livan continues to rack up innings year after year, and he’s now 11 innings from 13th straight season of at least 180-innings. Is Livan simply gifted with a “rubber” arm? Was he genetically predisposed to never have a serious arm problem? Has he avoided injury because his career average for a fastball is a mere 85 mph? I mean after all, Strasburg’s average change-up this season was 89.7 mph.

I have no idea what the answers are to these questions. All I know is that time after time we are smacked in the face by the fact that even though we think we have it figured out, we actually have no clue.

Strasburg had his innings pitched totals limited – almost obnoxiously so. Strasburg had hid pitch total managed fastidiously as well. Yet here we are with a torn tendon and the inevitable surgery.

Perhaps the truth is that human beings simply aren’t meant to throw a baseball over an over again at such speeds. There were hurlers in the past who could rush it up there in the high 90′s, guys like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard obviously come to mind, but there is no disputing the fact that today there are more pitchers than ever capable of tossing the old ball at speeds in excess of 95 mph. As training methods have improved, pitchers are able to get more out of their body than ever before, but perhaps we’ve gotten to the point that we have taxed the human body so excessively that sooner or later, like a taught rubber band, there will be an inevitable snap back.

If you ask me here is the simply truth – each man has a certain amount of bullets in his gun. It doesn’t matter if he stands 5’11″ or 6’6″, it doesn’t matter if he weighs 165 or 250 lbs, and it doesn’t matter if he throws 87 or 97 mph. Sooner or later everyone’s arm goes, and for every Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine we have a Francisco Liriano, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Carpenter, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria etcetera, etcetera. The real issue here isn’t training methods or velocity as much as it should be a realization that sooner or later all pitchers have to pay the price for the fame and fortune they attain.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Tim Hudson

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A competitor of the first degree, Tim Hudson has been greatly overlooked for the majority of his career. First he was somewhat hidden by the presence of Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland, and then he moved on to Atlanta where he toiled as a top shelf pitching option, though once again one who failed to generate as much attention as his production warranted. However, after a wonderful first half he was named to the 2010 NL All-Star team, a much deserved honor given his 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8-4 record through 17 starts. In the next couple of sections I’ll relate some of the historical success of Hudson before speaking directly to what I expect from him in the second half of the regular season.

A History Lesson

As a rookie Hudson went 11-2 with a 3.23 ERA for the A’s over 21 starts. He ended up fifth in the Rookie of the Year Voting.

In year two he won 20 games for the first and only time as he went 20-6 as he finished second in the AL Cy Young race despite the fact that he posted the second worst ERA of his career at 4.14.

In year III (2001), he made a career high 35 starts as he went 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA.

You get the picture. He’s been very good for a long time. In fact, here are some historical facts about Hudson that speak to just how good he has been.

* From 1999-2008 he won at least 11 games each season. Only he and Mike Mussina did that. Moreover, in each season of his career in which he has thrown 130-innings he has won at least 11 games.

* In his career he is 156-82, good for a .655 winning percentage. As a result, he is one of just 10 pitchers in big league history with a winning percentage over .650 and at least 150 victories in a career. Think about that. Only 10 men have ever done that.

* Hudson owns a 3.43 ERA in his career despite spending six of his 12 seasons in the AL. He owns a career 1.28 ERA+ meaning his ERA has been 28 percent better than league average (park and era adjusted). To place that number in context, that 128 mark is tied for 43rd all time with guys like Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver.

Yes, that means he has been historically good.

Breaking Down 2010

Hudson deserves to be on the All-Star team this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns. Let’s just plow through them.

1- His ERA hasn’t been below 3.00 since 2003.

2- His WHIP hasn’t been 1.15 or lower since 2003.

3- His .221 batting average against would be a career low (.250 lifetime mark).

4- Despite all the success his 4.57 K/9 mark is a batter and a half below his career rate (6.04). It would also be a career worst mark.

5- His 3.23 BB/9 is above his career rate (2.79) and would be his second worst mark since 2000.

6- His line drive rate is laughably low at 10.6 percent. His career rate is 18.0 and it has been at least 16.5 percent each of the past eight years.

7- His BABIP mark is .234 which would be a career low (.286 lifetime mark).

8- His left on base percentage is sky high at 84.0 percent. It’s 74.0 percent for his career.

9- His GB/FB ratio is 3.15, a mark that would set a new career best.

Could Hudson have a second half to match the first? Stranger things certainly have happened. At the same time there is so much out of whack here that it would be wise not to lay a big portion of your paycheck on Hudson continuing to dominate as the season wears on. He should be fine and concerns about his Tommy John surgery obviously have vanished, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be a good time to see if you can parlay his hot start into a big return on the trade market.

By Ray Flowers