Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

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Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap:
C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

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Good luck!

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June17, 2011

(1) Interleague play messes with players.

(2) Dan Uggla still can’t get her going.

(3) Jake Peavy to the bullpen?

(4) Daric Barton headed to minors?

(5) Ryan Vogelsong continues to amaze.

(6) Tommy Hanson dealing with shoulder woes.
(NOTE: After this video was posted the Braves put Hanson on the 15 DL after an MRI revealed shoulder inflammation).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 29, 2011

(1) Find or Fraud? – Sam Fuld.

(2) Travis Hafner already hurt.

(3) Chris Coghlan hurt – what’s his worth?

(4) Carl Crawford – what the hell is going on?

(5) Erik Bedard and Mike McCarthy.

By Ray Flowers

BABIP – An Early Look

photo © 2010 Chelsea N. | more info (via: Wylio)

You hear the term Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) mentioned along in the analysis of players, and today I’m going to break down a few of the players whose current BABIP marks are outstanding for one reason or another.

WHAT IS BABIP?

BABIP, also referred to as a player’s hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is one caveat with BABIP; it removes home runs from the equation, because technically the ball isn’t in play on a home run. Here is the simple formula in play for the measure:

(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

The major league average is in the .290-.300 range, but it should be pointed out that players tend to set their own baselines, and even if their batting averages are similar, they can have differing BABIP marks. Example:

Ichiro Suzuki has a .330 career batting average, Albert Pujols .330.
Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP, Pujols .313.
(Part of the reason for that is that Pujols hits 40 homers a year, and they don’t count toward a player’s BABIP mark).

With that brief intro, here are some early season outliers. To be fair, there really isn’t enough data to draw on for players in 2011, so this is more of a comparison looking at established levels than it is an indictment or thumbs up for the batters work through a couple of weeks of the big league season.

IN NEED OF TLC

.094 – Jorge Posada
Remember when I wrote that .290-.300 is the big league average? I don’t really need to break down how unlucky Posada has been this year then do I?

.162 – Jacoby Ellsbury
Players with big time wheels often exceed the big league average by a substantial amount because their legs allow them to beat out balls that the average player simply can’t. This situation makes Ellsbury’s low BABIP even more odd, especially since he has a .315 career mark. Ellsbury’s situation is bound to change, but he really needs to cut down on his Ks with 14 in 55 ABs this year or it won’t really matter.

All of the following batters are mired in terribly slow starts that will turn around in short order if history is an accurate guide.

.167 – Jason Heyward
.169 – Angel Pagan
.176 – Ian Kinsler
.179 – Carl Crawford
.182 – Brett Gardner
.183 – Chone Figgins
.185 – Dan Uggla
.197 – James Loney

The oddest name on that list might be Figgins. First off he has speed which, as mentioned, always helps. Second, his current mark is barely 50 percent of his career mark of .335. Third, he’s been hitting the ball hard with a line drive rate of 20.7 percent. It’s not quite up to his career level of 23.2, but it’s better than the big league average of 19-20 percent. Add that all together and it appears that Figgins is a great buy low candidate.

MIGHT BE TIME TO MOVE

The following players have marks that are out of this world right now, ones that hey have no chance in hell of being able to extend out for the course of the season (Austin Jackson led baseball with a mark of .396 last year). You might consider selling high on some of these guys, especially the ones that aren’t “household” names (obviously you’d only move the top-3 names on the list if you received a whopping package in return).

.500 – Matt Kemp
.456 – Andre Ethier
.444 – Joey Votto
.431 – Maicer Izturis
.426 – Alex Gordon
.421 – David Freese
.421 – Colby Rasmus
.410 – Travis Hafner
.410 – Nick Hundley

The last two names on the list deserve a mention.

Everyone is jumping on the Hafner train, and I fear that sucker is about ready to veer off the tracks. Maybe he is finally healthy after years of not being physically capable of playing everyday, but as a DH only eligible player he’s really going to clog your roster up if he stops hitting. Hafner’s career BABIP is .318, and only once in the last four years has he even reached that level.

Hundley is a catcher, so if he goes out there and hits .250-15-65 people will be happy, but some people seem to have the feeling that he might be the next V-Mart. He isn’t, not by a long shot. In his three previous seasons Hundley posted marks of .288, .303 and .293 in the BABIP column, so do you really think he’s going to be able to sustain a mark that is .100 points clear of that?

By Ray Flowers

All Good Things Come to an End

Dallas Braden threw a perfect game a while ago – you heard about that right? On Thursday he pitched a strong game allowing one run over six innings, but he had to be removed after 83 pitches because of some concern over his forearm, and he was awarded a no-decision when the bullpen blew the game. Braden hasn’t won a game in seven starts since his perfect game on May 9th.

Adam Dunn has at least two hits in 11 of his last 21 games, and now he is batting .288. Dunn has never hit higher than .267 in a season, and owns a .251 career mark, so you know the average is going to regress moving forward, but he will continue to draw walks and blast balls into the seats. What is that saying again? Oh yeah, chicks dig the long ball.

It might officially be time to jump off the John Ely train. He was tattooed for seven runs in 4.2 innings on Thursday by the Reds. That’s 3-straight starts of at least four earned runs allowed (none lasting more than five innings), and in those three outings his ERA is 9.20.

Travis Hafner will not play for 9-straight games in interleague play because he simply cannot play defense with his bum shoulder. Talk about a way to screw up a guys swing. Reason number 8,729 why interleague play is a bad idea. Reason number 8,730? A team like the Rockies has to use a guy like Chris Iannetta at the spot when he is hitting .179.

Speaking of that Rockies game, Ubaldo Jimenez is flat out filthy. He tossed another eight innings of 1-run ball on Thursday to lower his ERA slightly to 1.15. Dude is scary good right now.

Who doesn’t wish they were me? I might see Rick Springfield in concert tomorrow night. I might take my VHS camera to record the event so I can play it on my huge 26 inch television.

Chipper Jones might retire at the end of the 2010 season. (1) Big shock. How can anyone be surprised when he’s hitting .234 with an OPS that doesn’t even hit .750? (2) Why is it such a big story that he might hang them up? Until he announces that he is retiring everyone should let it go.

Sorry Mike Lowell. It seems like you may never end up being traded. The Red Sox can’t seem to find a fit with either the Twins or the Rangers as both clubs aren’t willing to give up a player of quality unless the Red Sox shoulder a lot of the money Lowell is owed.

Randy Wells allowed just two runs to the A’s over seven innings on Thursday. I’m no pitch Nazi, in fact I have no idea why pitchers today, with all our medical and training advances, can’t throw more frequently than in the past, but letting a guy throw 130 pitches in a game, which the Cubs did today with Wells, has proven to be rife with danger. Look for him to breakdown or in the least to see his production regress in his next few starts.

And finally, Darin Erstad has retired. One of my favorite players because of his all-out, never quit attitude, Erstad’s body betrayed because he flung it around with such reckless abandon. He ends his career with 1,697 hits and a .282 career average, but he will always have a place in the hearts of those that played fantasy baseball back in 2000. That year Erstad made the All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, and a Silver Slugger award on his way to an 8th place finish in the AL MVP race. Erstad lead the league in at-bats (676) and plate appearances (747), as he rapped out a league leading 240 hits. All told he hit .355 with 25 homers, 100 RBI, 121 runs scored and 28 steals in one of the most complete fantasy season in recent memory as he produced one of only two seasons in the history of baseball of .355-25-100-120-25 (the other was by Larry Walker in 1997 when he hit .366 with 49 homers, 130 RBI, 143 runs and 33 steals). Via Con Dios my friend.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Oddness Reigns

Yet another one of those days here on Wednesday with some oddities around the diamond. I’ll hit on a few things rather quickly before offering yet another diatribe about the stupidity that is being allowed to fester in the City of Brotherly Love.

Jamey Carroll had three hits on Wednesday, and for those of you haven’t bothered to look at his work this season you might be surprised to see that he is hitting .290 with 42 runs scored in just 224 ABs. AL-only leaguers who called his name out for two or three bucks on draft day have certainly gotten their money’s worth.

You don’t hear many people talking about Travis Hafner anymore, and with good reason. The once proud hitter who socked at least 24 home runs with 100 or more RBI in 4-straight seasons (2004-07) was atrocious last season in a year filled with injury (he hit .197 in 198 ABs). This year he has been much better hitting .278 with 13 homers and 38 RBI in 252 ABs, but it just looks like he will never be able to work his way back to the top of the mountain because of continued issues with his shoulder. “I don’t think he’s hurt, but there have been lasting affects from the surgery and the rehab,” manager Eric Wedge said. “I think he needs some down time to be 100 percent.”

Joe Crede remains out of the starting lineup with his back injury. I’m about as shocked to hear that Crede is sidelined by injury as I am that the Nationals have the worst record in baseball. In another shocking development, the Mets placed yet another player on the DL in hurler Oliver Perez. The mercurial lefty will have surgery to repair a patella tendon in his knee that has given him trouble all year, and as a result his season is over. There is not truth to the rumor that Mr. Met will end up on the DL with a strained oblique suffered while tossing peanuts to the fans.

Brad Lidge blew yet another game on Tuesday night, yet brain-dead manager Charlie Manuel says he is sticking with his beleaguered hurler. “He’s got to stay with it,” Manuel said. “He’s got to keep going. I mean, what the hell? That’s all we can do. … That’s where we’re at. That’s our closer. I’ve said that all along. That’s the guy we give the ball to in the ninth inning.” Look Mr. Manuel, you are turning into a laughing stock with your inability to make the move that should have been made months ago. In fact, way back on May 24th in A Change is Needed I suggested the obvious, turning to Ryan Madson, and I hit on that situation yet again about a week and a half ago in Philly Flop. Yet despite all of the data Manuel continues to run Lidge out there in the ninth inning, and it seems like he is pretty steadfast in his position despite an utter avalanche of information suggesting that this decision could preclude the team from once again reaching the World Series. If Tuesday night’s outing isn’t the straw that breaks the camels back – Lidge needed just seven pitches to allow three runs on his way to his sixth loss and ninth blown save – then there simply isn’t ever going to be a reason deemed worthy enough by Mr. Manuel to do the prudent thing and replace Lidge with Madson.

The Rockies continue to win, and they are just two games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead heading into action on Wednesday night. No team in baseball history has ever come back from a 15.5 game deficit in season to capture a division title (the 1914 Braves came back from a 15 game deficit), but the Rockies could be the first. Since June 3rd, when they were a season worst 12 games under .500, the club has gone 52-22, good enough for a .703 winning percentage. Some truly amazingly things are happening on Colorado.

By Ray Flowers

Photo Credit: Mr. Met and the esteemed Ryan Houston.