Draft Day Challenge, May 2

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. A.J. Pierzynski

Wieters is always a strong option. He’s only faced Blanton three times but he has two hits. He’s also driven in five runs in his last four games.

I gotta be honest. It’s really hard to find a viable option at catcher Thursday based on matchups. Pierzynski is only 5-for-14 in his career, and he’s been hurt of late, but it’s against his former team so maybe he summons something special.

FIRST BASE
1. Mitch Moreland
2. Edwin Encarnacion

Mr. Moreland is batting .429 the past week with nine hits, including four doubles, in 21 at-bats. He faces Mr. Peavy, and their history only includes six at-bats. Moreland has stroked a hit three times, twice going deep, on his way to five RBIs.

Encarnacion has blasted five homers, driven in eight runs and has scored seven times the past seven days. He’s only 1-for-11 against Ryan Dempster.

SECOND BASE
1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Omar Infante

Pedroia is hitting .435 the past week. He’s hitting .330 on the year. He’s hit .309 in his career against lefties. He faces lefty J.A. Happ of the Blue Jays.

The Tigers face Jordan Lyles in his first appearances of the 2013 season (he owns a 5.20 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 235.1 big league innings). Infante is batting .381 with two homers and seven runs scored over his last 23 plate appearances.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2.Manny Machado

Headley went deep Wednesday and he could keep the good times a rollin’ Thursday against Travis Wood a hurler he has beaten for six hits, including two big flies, in 12 at-bats.

Machado faces Mr. Blanton. Machado also has scored seven times the past week while batting, get this, .406 with an OPS of 1.112. He’s hot, hot, hot.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Yuniesky Betancourt

Andrus has had a disappointing start to the year. But things are slowly improving. He’s hitting .292 the past week and he faces Peavy whom he has four hits against in 12 at-bats.

Betancourt has four homers and seven RBIs in the past week. It’s a mirage. Maybe he can keep it going for another day against J. Westbrook whom he has gone 8-for-22 against in his career (.364).

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. B.J. Upton

Markakis faces the very hittable Joe Blanton Thursday, a righty whom he has rapped six hits against in 12 at-bats (he also driven in four runs).

It all starts today. Upton remembers he’s an elite talent. He faces homer prone Dan Haren who has, shockingly, given up homers to Upton. In 31 at-bats Upton is hitting .323, but it’s the five homers that really stick out.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Kyle Kendrick
2. Travis Wood
3. Ervin Santana
4. Jake Westbrook

Kendrick is the type of pitcher I avoid in roto leagues, he’s got soft skills, but if you’re looking at a one day matchup it’s not always so clear cut. Over his last four starts he is undefeated with a 1.29 ERA an a WHIP under 1.00. Now he faces the Marlins. He’s also 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA against the Marlins since 2010. Nuff said.

Wood has lasted at least six innings in all five of his starts and never allowed more than two earned runs. The Padres are not an offensive juggernaut by any means either.

Santana is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP the past three weeks. He plays in an early game, so hopefully you get this news on the quick. He faces a Rays club that is 10th in the AL in runs, is batting .244 with a .311 OBP, and one that has had long stretches of ineffectiveness.

I wrote earlier this week to sell Jake Westbrook in Surgers and Slumpers, so why am I suggesting you start him Thursday? Remember, we’re talking one start here, not 25. Westbrook does have an ERA under 1.00, and he faces Wily Peralta of the Brewers who hasn’t exactly been lights out. Westbrook also has a 3.06 ERA in his eight career starts against the Brew Crew.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to the site.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Today I’ll not only do my normal Friday thing, giving you some advice on guys I’d be starting Friday and Saturday, but I’m also going to point you to a game in which you can turn $10 into $5000. How does that sound?

CONTEST  – KING FOR A DAY; Win $12,000

Here’s the deal. Every Friday starting today, through September 7th, 12 qualifiers will be given a shot to win $12,000 in the final contest on September 14th. Here’s how it works from the official webpage of the tournament.

Each weekly qualifier is a $10 entry multiple-entry tournament with the winner earning a seat in the Sept 14th $12,000 King’s Crown tournament. In the event of a tie for first place, normal Daily Joust tie-breaker rules apply. If a tie still persists, a playoff will occur to determine the winner.

That’s right. Be a weekly winner and you’ll get your shot to view for the $12,000 in prizes ($5,000 to the winner)… for the cost of $10.

Sound like a game you’d like to try your hand at? Wish I could qualify…

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano vs. Josh Beckett: Cano hits everyone, and Beckett is no different as Cano has hit .324 with three homers and 13 RBI over 71 at-bats.

Matt Holliday vs. Ricky Nolasco: This matchup is golden for Holliday who is hitting .476 with two homers and six RBIs in 21 at-bats. Carlos Beltran also kills it with 13 hits in 38 at-bats (.342 average) against Nolasco.

Carlos Lee vs. Jake Westbrook: A new team for energy, and a great matchup for production. Lee is hitting .450 in 40 at-bats against the righty from STL.

Luke Scott vs. Justin Masterson: In a horrific slump that has him hitting .194 on the year, Scott is 7-for-16 (.438) with five RBIs off Masterson. Will this be the tonic he needs to turn things around?

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Red Sox: In his lone outing against the Sox he allowed two runs in seven innings while racking up nine Ks. Over his last eight starts this season he’s dropped his ERA from 4.50 to 3.17, and over his last 34 innings he has an impressive 39 Ks. He’s rolling.

Justin Masterson vs. Rays: So Scott hits him, but no one has really hit Masterson of late. Over his last six starts he’s struck out 36 while walking nine leading to a 1.93 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Maybe he turns around those awful career numbers vs. the Rays (6.80 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 43.2 IP).

Travis Wood vs. Mets: In his lone start against the Mets back on June 25th Wood hurled seven shutout innings. Moreover, he’s won his last three starts while allowing a total of one earned run. Put that together and you have a nice streaming option.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Braun vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Maybe Wandy hopes he will get dealt to the Brew Crew so he won’t have to keep facing Braun. In 34 career at-bats Braun has hit .412 with four homers and seven RBIs. Rickie Weeks (.353), Aramis Ramirez (.349) and Corey Hart (.386) also kill Wandy.

Miguel Cabrera vs. Bruce Chen: Ten hits in 21 at-bats (.476) and three homers and seven RBIs say to start Cabrera in all leagues. Not like you wouldn’t anyway.

Kevin Youkilis vs. Ricky Romero: The Blue Jays’ lefty has been awful of late whereas Youkilis is finally starting to hit. In 23 career matchups Youkilis is hitting .348 with three bombs leading to a 1.336 OPS.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Rays: In one game against Tampa he tossed 6.2 innings of one run ball. However, it’s his work of late that is so exciting. In his last six starts he has 36 Ks in 40 innings leading to a 2.93 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It’s pretty much been vintage Ubaldo.

Kyle Lohse vs. Marlins: The last time he took on the Marlins it was 7.1 innings of two run ball. The last three times he has taken the hill against anyone, including that game against the Marlins, it’s been at least seven innings with two or fewer earned runs allowed. Since the start of June, Lohse is 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (over at Fleaflicker people have started to notice his rise).

Jarrod Parker vs. Mariners: In his last start against the club from Seattle it was seven innings of one run ball. In his last four starts overall he has allowed three earned runs. Face it, it may not always be pretty, but the rookie is flat out getting it done every time he takes the hill.

By Ray Flowers  

 

Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Photo by Steven Boyd

 

I’m continually asked a few questions over and over again.

What should my draft strategy be?
Which “sleepers” should I target late in drafts?
Which setup man will become a closer this season?
How can you give away such great information for free?
How is it possible that you’re still single?

I always have answers for those questions, at least the first four anyway, but there is a sixth question that I get all the time as well – which pitchers should I target on draft day after the top mound aces are off the board? That’s what I’m going to breakdown in this entry.

I’ve already touched on this topic previously, so I’ll quickly highlight those pieces before digging a bit deeper today.

The Strikeout: Relievers
This article breaks down the top relievers in 2010 based on K/9 marks.

The Strikeout: Starters
This article breaks down the top starters in 2010 based on K/9 marks while also delving a bit deeper by adding into the mix how a pitchers’ walk rate also needs to be looked at as well.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010 (clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are).

How to Evaluate Relievers
This article gives some hints as to what type of skills you should look at when deciding which bullpen arms to roster.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

Amongst relievers that tossed 60-innings last year, which pitchers racked up a K/9 mark over 7.50 with a BB/9 mark under 3.00? Clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are.

THE RULES

Here are the “rules” that I try follow when drafting pitchers.

STARTERS
Target at least a 6.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.30.

RELIEVERS
Target at least a 7.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.00.

There are certainly plenty of examples of pitchers who have success despite missing on one, or both, of those baselines, but if you’re asking me the optimal way to put together a pitching staff, then those are the marks I would be shooting for.

What does this mean in practical terms? It means that I would never reach for any of the following hurlers: Mark Buehrle, Rick Porcello, Carl Pavano, Doug Fister, Mike Pelfrey, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Fausto Carmona, R.A. Dickey, Trevor Cahill, Jon Garland, Derek Lowe or Randy Wells.

To be clear I’m not saying that there aren’t situations in which I would still call out these pitchers names – i.e. in a league specific scenario or very late in a mixed league draft – but there’s no chance I’m gonna target them to be one of my top four starters in a mixed league, and no, I don’t care how good they were last year.

At the other end of the spectrum here are some hurlers who I would look to call out at the end of a draft, even if they don’t seem to be as stable an option as the names I just listed. Remember, there will always be “average” guys on waivers in mixed leagues. I’m going to target high upside arms late, an if they flame out I’ll just grab one of those above guys to fill out my rotation.

Jorge de la Rosa: A dominating power hurler who has a a 8.95 K/9 mark since joining the Rockies in 2008, DLR’s issue is an inability to stay healthy and to locate his pitches at times. Given his K per inning rate the past three years, and the fact that he is a ground ball hurler, I’m willing to cut him a wee bit of slack even though his BB-rate is terrible at 4.12 per nine. Still, I’d rather take a shot on his ceiling than call out the name of a guy like Jon Garland.

Jhoulys Chacin: Like his Rockies’ teammate, Chacin dominated hitters with the K posting a 9.04 K/9 mark, but he also allowed far too many walks at 4.00 per nine. However, he also keeps the ball on the ground like DLR, and K’s plus grounders usually equals a lot of success – even in Colorado.

Bud Norris: This Astros’ hurler was 10th in baseball last year amongst pitchers who threw at least 100-innings with a 9.25 K/9 mark. He does come with a lot of risk though. First off, he often can’t throw strikes (4.51 walks per nine), and second he could always be moved back to the bullpen because he really doesn’t have very good secondary stuff. I’m still greatly intrigued by that power arm though.

Homer Bailey: A star prospect who was going to break through what, each of the last three years, it might finally be his time. Bailey posted a strong 8.26 K/9 mark last season with a 3.30 BB/9 rate, not to mention that he was able produce a 3.55 ERA an a 1.27 WHIP over his last 10 starts.

Jonathon Niese: I don’t think there will be many leagues this year where he will be taken before Pelfrey and Dickey, but I see no reason why that should be the case. Niese was really good last year until a final month meltdown when he wore out from his heavy workload (his ERA was 3.76 on Sept 18th before finishing at 4.20).

Chris Narveson: I’ve written about him before, but in case you missed it, did you realize that over his last 14 starts last year he had a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 7.33 K/9 mark with a 2.67 BB/9 rate?

Travis Wood: Rookies who post a 7.54 K/9 rate and a 2.28 BB/9 mark should certainly grab your attention, especially when the back of their ball card says that they were a 2nd round draft pick hinting that it’s not unreasonable to expect there to be enough talent to sustain that level of production.

Let me repeat my oft-heard refrain: TARGET SKILLS AND NOT ROLES

In the long run you’ll end up ahead if you follow this mantra. You’ll just have to target the right skills and have the patience to allow things to develop.

By Ray Flowers

The Strikeout: Starters

 

You are all aware that I host The Fantasy Drive each day on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio right? If you weren’t aware I do, and you can catch the fantasy sports talk from 5-8PM EDT daily, Monday through Friday, on channels XM 147 and Sirius 211. Now that the infomercial section of the article is over, let’s get to the relevance of why I brought this up.

As part of my work with SiriusXM, I was tasked with putting together a 10-15 minute segment on the art of strikeout. When the wheels started turning I was able to work up a list of some rather interesting bits o’ information, so I thought I would share that with you all in print as well.

The 2010 Season

I don’t know if pitchers are getting better, if batters are getting worse, if it was a one anomaly, or if the removal of PED’s from the game has helped to level the playing field, but 2010 was a very good year for pitchers.

* In 2010 pitchers posted a K/9 mark of 7.13. That was the highest mark of the 21st century (from 2000-10 the big league average has been 6.67).

* The last five years the K/9 rate has gone up from 6.38 to 7.13 per nine.

The Targets

What numbers would you look to as “targets” when it comes to the strikeout? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Don’t overlook guys who didn’t post huge strikeout totals as it’s much more important to pay attention to the context of a strikeout, in this case the K/9 mark of a hurler. A perfect example is Bud Norris. He “only” had 158 Ks last year, but that’s because he pitched only 153.2 innings. On the other hand, his K/9 rate was as exceedingly impressive 9.25. Look at the ratio versus the raw K-total, it’s much more valuable when trying to discern who the strikeout aces are.

(2) In the fantasy game, I wouldn’t target a starter with a K/9 mark under 6.50 or a reliever under 7.50. Starters can have success below that level without a doubt – especially extreme ground ballers are but one example of the type of hurler that could still succeed with mediocre strike rates – but I’d prefer a staff of guys like Bud Morris and Brandon Morrow over the Derek Lowe’s and Jake Westbrook’s of the world every time.

(3) Even though this is about the strikeout, make sure to look at walks as well. Heat does you no good if you can’t throw strikes (hello Oliver Perez). In 2010 pitchers posted a 2.17 K/BB mark thanks to the extra strikeouts and a 5-year low of 3.28 in the BB/9 column. As a result, the 2.17 K/BB mark was the best in the 21st century.

Starting Pitchers

With that primer, here is a list of the top strikeout artists, as defined by their K/9 marks, from the 2010 season.

K/9 Amongst qualifiers – minimum 162 IP

9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.36 Felix Hernandez
8.32 Adam Wainwright
8.28 James Shields
8.27 Dan Haren
8.22 Wandy Rodriguez

If we drop down the innings pitched mark a bit lower, here is the list that we come up with (players in italics are new additions to the above list).

K/9 – minimum 100 IP

10.95 Brandon Morrow
9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.52 Manny Parra
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.25 Bud Norris
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
9.04 Jhoulys Chacin
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.41 Hisanori Takahashi

Mr. Morrow ends up leading baseball with a K/9 rate of 10.95. If he were able to maintain that rate over 190 innings that would lead to 231 strikeouts, the same total that Tim Lincecum posted which was the best mark in the NL. However, Brandon Morrow, Manny Parra, Bud Norris and Jhoulys Chacin, while major strikeout contributors, all posted a BB/9 mark over 4.00, so they certainly come with risk.

Starters to Target

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010.

Roy Halladay
Tommy Hanson
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Mat Latos
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
Shaun Marcum
Colby Lewis
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Francisco Liriano
Adam Wainwright
Roy Oswalt
Scott Baker
Ted Lilly

Here are five more who made the list who might not have been obvious considering the other aspects of their pitching performance last season..

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlin’s hurler has a 4.81 ERA past two years despite some excellent work on the hill. His K/9 mark of 8.98 is 7th best in baseball in that time, while his 4.44 K/BB ratio is 4th best. Buy low on him if you can.

Travis Wood: The rookie had a rather solid K/9 mark of 7.54, and with a lack of walks he was able to post a strong 3.31 K/BB.

James Shields: – Despite 15 Loses and 5.18 ERA, Shields actually posted the best K/9 of his career at 8.28. Shields also posted a strong 3.67 K/BB, just slightly off his career 3.70 mark. Buy him at a discount this year, he’s as good as he has ever been.

Hiroki Kuroda: The Dodgers’ depth starter had a 7.29 K/9 (the best of career), which led to a similarly impressive 3.31 K/BB mark. He isn’t a fantasy ace, but he is a fine option to round out a staff.

Jason Hammel : The Rockies’ righty had a career best 7.14 K/9 and a solid 3.00 K/BB (it was 3.17 in ’09). He will be a bargain on draft day after posting a poor 4.81 ERA in ’10.

Solid Pitchers to Avoid
Ground ball types: Carl Pavano (4.76 K/9), Mike Pelfrey (4.99), Bronson Arroyo (5.05), Dallas Braden (5.28),Fausto Carmona (5.31), Tim Hudson (5.47), Jake Westbrook (5.68), Brett Cecil (6.10), Derek Lowe (6.32).

 

 

By Ray Flowers