Draft Day Challenge, April 25

Fantasy baseball is about adapting to change, whether it’s do to injury or performance. Keeping up with the Jones’, DraftDay.com has decided to change things up in their partnership with BaseballGuys by offering a new contest for you to enter in daily fantasy baseball.

*** After detailing the game I’ll list for you some of the best plays of the day at the bottom of the piece.

MLB Rapid Fire Game at DraftDay
There are five 1-on-1 matchups for Friday’s MLB Games (this contest is obviously for Friday, not Thursday). If you’re able to go 3-for-5, come on you can do that, you will double your entry fee (the cost is just $1.10 to enter).

What’s the Special Offer?
DraftDay.com is offering a 100 percent money-back guarantee if you don’t win (two or less correct picks) your Rapid Fire game this Friday (only on $1.10 level).

Too good to be true? Hardly. Here are the rules.
1. Make your picks and enter for $1.10 (only the $1.10 is eligible for money-back offer).
2. If you don’t have a DraftDay account, make one when prompted.

For those who feel think a mere 3-for-5 day is too simple you can play DraftDay’s Rapid Fire Max games where if you go 5-of-5 your winnings end up being 20 times your entry fee (there’s no refund action in this game though).

When is This Contest?
Picks have to be submitted by first pitch on Friday. You can edit your player selections up until game-time.

So to enter the contest click on this link to DraftDay.com. Come on folks, if John Buck can go 3-for-5 so can you.

THURSDAY MATCHUPS

For those of you looking for some help for today, here are some solid matchups.

CATCHERS
1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Miguel Olivo

JPA has gone deep and produced six hits in 12 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda. JPA also blasted his AL leading 8th bomb Wednesday.

Olivo owns Edwin Jackson in their limited battles. Olivo has gone deep twice with six RBIs as he has produced four hits in just eight at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Mike Napoli
2. Greg Dobbs

Not only is Napoli hitting .274 with an .889 OPS but his total of 26 RBIs leads baseball.

Dobbs has only nine at-bats against Edwin Jackson (two hits), but he’s always been a better hitter against righties in his career. Honestly, it’s not like that is really saying that much.

SECOND BASE
1. Steve Lombardozzi
2. Jamey Carroll

It looks like Lombardozzi might get a chance to start at second base for the Nationals as Danny Espinosa‘s struggles continue (.155/.197/.293 in 58 ABs). Lombardozzi is batting .345 and gets to face Bronson Arroyo, not exactly the toughest right in the game (Lombardozzi’s OPS is .096 points higher versus righties than lefties in his career).

Carroll has three hits, two runs and an RBI in his last two games and in his career against the Rangers he has hit .360 with a .875 OPS over 86 at-bats. I know, pretty impressive for a guy who owns a career mark of .697 in the OPS column.

THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. Manny Machado

Machado gets to face the struggling Parker of the Athletics while Donaldson faces the Orioles Hammel. Donaldson has five hits and four RBIs in his last three games and Machado has 10 hits in his last seven games while he has driven in seven runners.

SHORTSTOP
1. Josh Rutledge
2. Robert Andino

Rutledge is 4-for-9 against the D’backs Cahill and he has a hit in 5-straight. He’s also gone deep three times, while stealing five bases, in 20 games. The 18 runs scored is also an impressive mark (eight in eight games).

Andino was named the starter for the Mariners after the team grew a bit weary of Brendan Ryan‘s poor hitting. It’s not like Andino is an accomplished hitter in his own right, but he is batting .364 the past week and he does have one hit in three at-bats against the Angels’ Richards.

OUTFIELD
1. Vernon Wells
2. Ichiro Suzuki

Both of the Yankees outfielders get to face Mark Buehrle, a pitcher they both own. Wells has been insanely effective against MB hitting, get this, .489 with two bombs in 47 at-bats. Ichiro has only hit .431 against MB in 51 at-bats. Slacker.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Hiroki Kuroda
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Garrett Richards
4. Trevor Cahill

Kuroda faces the Blue Jays, a team he held to one run back on April 20th over 7.1 innings. In four career starts against the Jays he has a 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 4.40 K/BB ratio.

Slowey has a 1.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through four starts, and in each game he has held the opposition to two or fewer runs. He doesn’t beat himself with six walks on the year, and for what it’s worth his one start against the Cubs he punched out 10 batters in six innings.

Richards faces the Mariners a team he has racked up 14 Ks an a 3.27 ERA against over 11 career innings. Richards also had a 2.55 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over 17.2 innings this season.

Cahill has a tough matchup against the Rockies, but he’s pitching at home where he has had success this season (3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18 Ks in 18 IP). He also held the Rockies to three earned runs in seven innings the last time he faced the Rockies, and that was in Colorado.

By Ray Flowers

Valentine’s Day Special

If you forgot to look at a calendar consider this your public service announcement for the day. It’s Valentine’s Day moron. Go out and get your special someone something special. It doesn’t have to be a diamond ring – though I’m sure those are welcomed – it just has to be something that shows you care. A box of candy (one that doesn’t look like you bought it at the convenient store on the corner would be nice). A stuffed teddy bear like the one above. Hell, if all of that isn’t happening make a card. Nothing says I care like a handmade card. Don’t worry if it looks like it was done by a seven year old. This is one time that it will seem adorable even if you have no artistic talent (for those of you who are interested in the holiday, the History Channel has a nice little section of videos discussing the day).

Before I go and get all soft on you all, and yes I have a special day about to be set in motion (my lady planned an evening for me that is a total surprise. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed it by mentioning it here in this piece), let’s get back to the world of baseball which is the real reason you came to BaseballGuys.com today, not to read my mushy thoughts on the holiday.

Grant Balfour will likely miss 4-6 weeks as he went under the knife on Thursday for a knee issue. The club hopes he will be able to return in time for Opening Day, but that’s obviously an open ended question at this point. Ryan Cook would seem most likely to take over given that he filled the role with aplomb last season in the first half. Some may have forgotten with Cook that he had 14 saves, 21 holds, a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.82 K/9 mark in 2012. That’s an elite line folks. Some will mention Sean Doolittle as a possible closing option, but the guy literally has less than 75 innings pitched in his career (he’s a converted hitter). He’s got a huge K arm, 11.41 per nine last year, and he walked only 2.09 per nine, but he’s just so inexperienced and really only has one solid pitch at the moment (he threw his fastball 87 percent of the time in ’12).

Trevor Cahill lost 10-15 lbs over the winter. Question. How does Cahill not know how much weight he lost? Did he never weigh himself before (I mean, can he see his toes now or what)? There’s obviously a benefit to getting in better shape. It should take some pressure of Cahill’s legs and give him a bit more oomph at the end of the season. Cahill pushed his K-rate to 7.02 per nine last year, a career best, and more than a batter above his career rate. If he holds on to those gains, and is able to maintain his out of this world 2.69 GB/FB ratio from last season, that ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.29) could certainly come down.

For those of you looking for some sexy Valentine’s outfits…

Rich Harden threw Wednesday and said that his surgically repaired shoulder felt pretty good. “I’m hoping it’ll feel the same when I start facing hitters. I threw mostly fastballs because I’m trying to get that feel back.” The Twins don’t know exactly yet if Harden would fit best in the bullpen or at the back-end of the rotation, but I would bet that if he’s healthy he’ll be able to get batters out. For his career Harden has struck out 949 batters in 928.1 innings.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a team as clubs are still a bit unsure about whether giving him all that cash, and giving up a first round draft pick as compensation is worth it. For more on Lohse see his Player Profile.

Adam Wainwright had a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season, solid numbers indeed but off the pace he set for himself before he had Tommy John surgery. I’m here to tell ya though, he pitched much better than it seemed. Take a look at his xFIP for a quick snapshot of how he performed: 3.32 in 2009, 3.02 in 2010, Tommy John surgery in 2011, 3.23 in 2012. His 8.34 K/9 mark is a five year best, and his 3.54 K/BB ratio was better than his 3.02 career mark. Toss in a career best 1.93 GB/FB ratio (career 1.57), and we have a guy who is primed for a huge season in 2013.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 17: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ike Davis (+25, $104 K in DailyJoust Salary)
He’s hitting just .213. Ugh. Now the positive. He has 20 homers, the same total as Mark Teixeira. He’s driven in 60 runs, nine more than Paul Konerko. He’s hit .253 the last 49 games after hitting .170 in his first 48 games. Certain progress no doubt, but there are still two situations that you want to make sure Davis is firmly rooted to your bench. (1) He’s hit .179 with a .576 OPS against lefties this season. (2) He’s hit .151 with a .484 OPS at home. I’m not kidding. Davis has a .151 average at home, a .214 batting average and .270 SLG in 159 at-bats. Can’t get much worse than that and remain a big leaguer.

A.J. Griffin (+69, $344K)
The former college closer just knows how to pitch. Winner of each of his last three starts, each of the six times that Griffin has taken the hill this season he’s gotten exactly 18 outs while allowing no more than three runs in any outing. In fact, he’s sporting some elite ratios – including a 2.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP – as he’s held batters to a .205 average while posting 29 Ks, against only eight walks, in 36 innings. It’s impossible to think he will keep up this pace, but he’s been a waiver-wire gem the past five weeks.

Justin Maxwell (+14, $70K)
For those of you in NL-only leagues Justin has been a nice, reserve round gamble, hasn’t he? Maxwell has socked 10 long balls with 31 RBIs and 29 runs scored in just 172 at-bats, some pretty impressive marks given that relatively small sample size. However, he’s also hitting .227 which, unfortunately, is .015 points better than his career average. You’re really pushing it if you’re using him in mixed leagues, but he’s a valuable commodity, despite the warts, in league specific setups.

Max Scherzer (+149, $437K)
The last five times he has taken the hill he has emerged victorious four times. In his last four starts he’s allowed a total of eight runs. He’s walked an unappealing eight batters in his last two trips to the hill, but he’s offset the wildness with his huge stuff that has led to a 10.99 K/9 mark, the best in the Junior Circuit (11.58 for Stephen Strasburg to lead the NL). The K/9 mark is a career best, as is his 3.39 K/BB ratio. He needs to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard as he’s given up more fly balls than ever before, an a greater percentage of those fly balls have landed in the seats than ever before.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Mike Aviles (-14, $55K)
On the year Aviles has been a borderline top-10 shortstop option as he’s hit .252 with 10 homers, 51 RBIs, 42 runs scored and 10 steals. Unfortunately for Aviles owners, it’s gotten ugly of late. Aviles is hitting .200 over his last 50 at-bats. He’s also hitting just .194 in July. He has just two homers in his last 48 games. He’s scored just 12 runs in his last 48 games. Yeah, it might be time to explore going with another option up the middle.

Mark Buehrle (-40, $370K)
The guy has been a rock this year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 20 starts. It’s not all sugar plumbs and roses though as he’s allowed six earned runs over his last two starts (just 10 IP) as he’s walked five while striking out five. We could play this game all day, he’s killing it, he’s mortal, but in the end he is what he is – and that is a pretty darn impressive big league hurler who never gets hurt an  almost always gives his team a chance to win, even if he isn’t an impressive big league arm.

Trevor Cahill (-47, $283K)
When will they learn? The loser in two of three starts and four of six, Cahill has been the past month what he often is – a below average big league pitcher. In five July starts he has gone 2-3 with a 4.45 WE, 1.48 WHIP and 21 Ks in 30.1 innings. If that excites you have at it with Cahill, but I personally don’t understand the love affair people have with him. Working on a career best K/9 rate, it’s just 6.50, the only think that Cahill does well, the only thing, is keeping the ball on the ground. Still, even with a career best 59 percent ground ball rate his current ratios (3.86 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) look exactly like his career numbers (3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).

Mike Trout (-24, $128K)
A chink in the armor perhaps? Trout’s average has dipped to .350, the lowest it’s been in two weeks, and he’s stolen only one base in his last 13 games. What a loser. I’d still exercise caution when it comes to telling the future with Trout given that his line drive rate is huge and likely unsustainable (25.4 percent). Ditto his BABIP of .402. He’s having a magical season no doubt, but will he finish as strong as he started?

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Elvis Andrus vs. Jered Weaver: A tough matchup on paper given Weaver’s dominance and fly ball ways, Andrus has had no issue whatsoever getting on base against Jered as he’s posted 21 hits in 49 at-bats (.429).

Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Mr. Mauer has one homer against Mr. Hochevar and six walks, but it’s the 11 hits in 23 at-bats (.478) that grab ones attention. Oh yeah, that .586 OBP ain’t too bad either.

Rickie Weeks vs. Homer Bailey: Hitting .197 on the year and .182 the past week, Weeks just can’t get anything going. You’ll know it’s a lost season of he doesn’t get a couple of knocks in this matchup given that he’s hit .524 with two homers and seven RBIs against Bailey in 21 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Trevor Cahill vs. Astros: Call this one a hunch. Cahill hasn’t pitched well at home with a 3-4 record, 4.78 Era and 1.45 WHIP. He’s also never faced the Astros, and he’s lost three of his last four starts this season. So why suggest starting him? After the Astros made that huge move to add seven players I’d figure the clubhouse is in a bit of shock.

Kevin Correia vs. Marlins: The last time he faced the Fish it was a disaster as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings back on May 15th, but he has won his last four decisions. He’s also had a lot of success this year at home with a 3.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts though you shouldn’t be expecting many punchouts (he has just 17 in 43.2 innings at home).

Luke Hochevar vs. Twins: His career numbers against the club from Minnesota stink (4-4, 5.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), but he’s been pitching pretty well of late. He’s 3-1 in his last four decisions, isn’t beating himself (12 walks in seven games), and he’s lowered his ERA from 6.63 to 5.16 over his last seven trips to the bump.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Bobby Abreu vs. Miguel Bautista: This matchup goes back years and Abreu has come out the victor an awful lot with a .387 batting average and 1.072 OPS in 31 at-bats (he has gone deep once with nine RBIs as well).

Matt Diaz vs. Jon Lannan: The Nationals lefty will get his chance to shin in a return to the big leagues, but he’s going to want to make sure he avoids Diaz if possible as the Braves outfielder has hit .424 with a 1.032 OPS against John in 33 at-bats.

Ian Kinsler vs. Ervin Santana: Kinsler only has one homer and five RBIs in the matchup but he also has 18 hits in 47 at-bats, good for a .383 average and 1.038 OPS. Michael Young also bears watching as he’s hit .351 with 13 RBIs in 74 ABs against Santana. Oddly Young has 16 Ks in 74 at-bats.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bronson Arroyo vs. Brewers: Talk about some success. Arroyo has held the Brew Crew to a .213/.274/.360 line in 272 at-bats. Remove the four homers of Ryan Braun and the other Brewers have taken the homer prone hurler deep just five times in 229 at-bats.

Scott Diamond vs. Royals: Diamond is sporting an 8-3 record with a 2.96 ERA on the year, but he’s coming off a poor start that saw him allow five runs and nine hits in six innings. Still he’s been successful this year and current Royals batters are hitting .207 off Diamond with a .499 OPS in 29 at-bats.

Edwin Jackson vs. Braves: This is a risky call. On the one hand Jackson has been bombed over his last three starts allowing 16 runs over his last 13.2 innings. On the other hand he’s had a lot of success against current Braves batters holding them to a .206 average, .559 OPS and no homers in 68 at-bats.

CONTESTS

Are you looking to show off your baseball acumen?

Is your team floundering because of injury after injury?

Are you still looking for a way to get your fantasy baseball fix?

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link. DJ can help you to redeem your 2012 fantasy baseball season. You head to the site, sign up, and off you go with a myriad of options to play. The best part? The games are DAILY. You don’t need to worry about losing Brett Garnder all year and what that’s done to your team. Every day you can choose a new lineup. It didn’t work out Thursday? Well pick some new players on Friday. Want to roll with the same lineup on Saturday again? You certainly can. You’re also free to completely change things up and go with a whole new squad in your quest to make some cash.

By Ray Flowers  

Holiday Dealing

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. I know his is a baseball blog, an I promise to include some baseball in this post (Carlos Beltran and Gio Gonzalez will be dealt with), but I also wanted to point out a few interesting tidbits about the holiday season before getting to the hardball.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

ATHLETICS DEAL GONZALEZ

The A’s are blowing up their team yet again dealing their top two arms this offseason in Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (I broke down Cahill in his PLAYER PROFILE), and reports suggest they still might move Andrew Bailey as well. Jeez, when will it end in Oakland as all they do is trade “young veterans” for younger players year after year.

Athletics: A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock
Nationals: Gio Gonzalez

The Nats get one of the best young lefties in baseball, a fact I mentioned in Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings. Gio has won 31 games, posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 184 strikeouts a year the past two seasons. He leaves one of the better pitching yards in the American League for a slightly more offensive ballyard, but the move to the NL should negate that. Will Gio improve upon where he is right now? Maybe not (walks continue to be an issue). Even so, he remains a dominating left-handed starting pitcher, and there just aren’t that many to go around.

As for the Athletics, this could turn out to be one of the greatest deals the team has ever made. Of course, there is no assurance that prospects will ever develop into the stars scouts project them to be, but there is no disputing that the Athletics raided the cupboard of the Nationals. The Nats kept their top-2 prospects – Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – but the A’s got the #2 and #3 youngsters in Peacock and Cole. Baseball America also listed Norris, a power hitting catcher with a big bat, as the 9th best player in the Nats organization. As for Milone, all he did was go 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 155 Ks and just 16 walks, sixteen, in 148.1 innings at Triple-A. For more on the foursome here’s the Nationals Minor League report from noted minor league expert John Sickels.

The Nationals get a huge lefty arm to pair with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, and they clearly win this deal, in a landslide, in the short term. If we check back in two years though, this deal could be seen as the building block of another Athletics’ dynasty. Time will tell.

CARDINALS SIGN BELTRAN

After losing the great Albert Pujols, the Cardinals did the best thing they could by signing the second best bat available on the free agent market (Prince Fielder was far too expensive for the team to consider). Carlos Beltran signed a two year deal for $26 million. It’s a strong salary for Beltran and the two year commitment shields the Cards if Beltran develops more physical issues. Beltran no longer runs, he has just seven steals the past two years, but he can still hit as evidenced by his .300-22-84-78 line with the Mets and Giants last year. However, he’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 35 in April, and he did appear in just 81 and 64 games in 2009-2010 because of continued issues with his lower half. If he can stay healthy the next two years it’s certainly possible that he could repeat the numbers he posted last season, but it was still wise for the Cards not to sign him for more than a couple of seasons.

Happy Holidays to all… and to all a good night.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Trevor Cahill

Trevor Cahill over performed in 2010 before regressing substantially in 2011. Which pitcher should the Diamondbacks, who picked him up in a deal with the Athletics (Cahill and Craig Breslow were dealt to the D’backs for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook), expect to show himself in 2012?

Let’s get right to the numbers with Cahill.

2010: 18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.40 K/9, 1.87 K/BB, 1.93 GB/FB
2011: 12-14, 4.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.37 K/9, 1.79 K/BB, 2.21 GB/FB

I knew a fall was coming, especially in the ratio categories. Here’s what I wrote on June 10th of 2011. “…I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.” How did I know that would occur? It should have been obvious.

Cahill is an extreme ground ball hurler who has generated a 56 percent ground ball rate the past two years. That’s a phenomenal number (in 2010 he was 5th in baseball in GB-rate and he was 6th in 2011 – amongst hurlers that qualified for the ERA title). Clearly he is elite at generating ground balls. This skill, more than any other, should lead to a long and successful career for Cahill. Keeping the ball on the ground covers up a multitude of sins as it takes an awful lot of singles to score a lot of runs versus those hurlers who give up the big fly with frequency.

However, despite that one elite skill, the rest of his “game” isn’t that strong. A solid K arm in the minors, Cahill has posted a strikeout mark of 5.48 per nine innings in his career. Given that the AL average during his career has been 6.88, he is clearly deficient in this measure. One could look at the growth he has shown in his three seasons and have a little hope (4.53, 5.40 and 6.37 per nine), but his 2011 mark was still well below the league average. Cahill also issues free passes a bit too frequently. In his career his BB/9 mark is 3.35 versus the league average of 3.23 (he’s also had two of three seasons above 3.50). As a result, his 1.64 K/BB ratio for his career is awful and light years from the league average of 2.13 the past three years. All the ground balls help to cover up some of these issues, but at the same time you will always struggle for consistency if your K/BB ratio is that far below 2.00.

xFIP kind of tells the story with Cahill. Though his career ERA is 3.91 his xFIP mark is 4.23 for his career. Even the last two seasons when his ERA was 3.58, his xFIP was nearly a half a run higher at 3.95.  So what is the going rate in the fantasy game for a guy who wins 14 games with a 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 5.90 K/BB ratio (the average of Cahill the last two years)? How much would you pay at the draft table for Mark Buehrle who won 13 games with a 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 4.78 K/9 ratio in 2011?

Trevor Cahill is a better real world pitcher than a fantasy option. As a third starter he’s likely to have a long and successful career – he could be a Derek Lowe type who has a decade of success – but I’d feel best about him being a rock as a 4th starter. In the fantasy game he’ll never be a 3rd or 4th starter. The main reason is that Cahill simply doesn’t miss enough bats (his minor league K numbers just haven’t been sustained in the bigs). We’ve seen how good he can be when everything clicks, but we’ve also seen how things can go in the other direction when that sinker isn’t hitting its spots. Cahill is a solid NL-only arm because he’ll get to face the Padres and Giants a lot, two teams that can’t hit and play in pitcher’s parks, and facing pitchers instead of a DH will also be a boost to his value. Still, I have a hard time envisioning him as anything more than a 5th starter in a standard mixed league because of the lack of punchouts.

By Ray Flowers

Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings

As we wrap up the wild and wooly week that was dominated by the Angels and the Marlins, there are still plenty of newsworthy stories that we need to keep an eye on.

Gio Gonzalez is coming off two impressive seasons for the A’s as an innings eating, K machine (at least 200 innings and 171 strikeouts each of the last two years). He’s also won 31 games for a less than elite club in Oakland, and he’s a 26 year old left hander. So of course the A’s are looking to deal him. I get it, the A’s don’t have a lot of options since they are not exactly flush with cash, but what’s the point of having a club if you have to deal exactly the type of players that you should be building around? There is also a growing belief that the A’s and D’backs might work out a deal centered around Trevor Cahill.

Hiroki Kuroda is still looking for a home. It’s hard to tell if the reason he hasn’t signed is because teams fell that his heart really isn’t in it, i.e. that he wants to return to Japan, or if Kuroda is just being super picky about where he’ll sign.

Matt Moore is the best pitching prospect in baseball, a fact I spoke to in my Around the Horn Video from September 23rd (I compared him to Stephen Strasburg). The world saw that potential start to be realized late in the playoffs and the Rays, never one to ignore talent, have taken a big risk that could end up being a huge win for the team. The Rays signed Moore, who has just 9.1 innings of regular season work to his name, to a 5-year, $14 million deal (there are also three option years in the deal that could extend the contract out to $37.5 million over eight years, an a couple of escalator clauses could actually boost the total value up to $40 million). It’s a huge risk given his youth an inexperience, the Rays are saying their prayers that he doesn’t end up turning into Scott Kazmir, but if we’re six years down the road and Moore has been an All-Star four times, it will be a huge win for the club.

The Twins are operating under the assumption that Justin Morneau will be able to return to playing first base next season. Don’t count me in that group. As I said all offseason last year, I had no interest in adding Morneau to my fantasy squad, an unfortunately I was right (he appeared in only 69 games). For the Twins to expect the oft injured one to be handle first base duties is asking too much if you ask me. They’d be better off just sticking him at DH and letting him help the club with his bat.

Carlos Pena is a mere consolation prize for whomever doesn’t add Prince Fielder, but given that there could be a $100 million difference between their contracts, maybe he isn’t that bad a fall back option. Pena’s career batting average is pathetic (.239), an as I’ve written before he’s hit under .230 the last three seasons, but he is a legit power bat. The Cardinals, who now have an opening at first base, are reportedly kicking the tires.

Francisco Rodriguez apparently didn’t like what he was hearing from the marketplace, so he decided to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration. Given that the Brewers aren’t very likely to be pleased about paying a setup man $13 million a year (that’s the estimate of what K-Rod will get in arbitration), it’s hardly a surprise that the Brewers are engaging in talks with multiple teams about the setup man who wants to be a closer.

And finally, the Cubs and Rockies worked out a deal that involved Ian Stewart going to the Cubs along with Casey Weathers for Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu. Colvin has some nice pop, he’s hit 26 homers with 78 RBI and 78 runs in 581 career at-bats, but he really struggled last year hitting just .150 with a .509 OPS in 206 at-bats. The Rockies figure to give him some time in the outfield and at first base. As for Stewart, he’ll be given a chance to compete for the opening at third base with Aramis Ramirez no longer in the mix. A talented hitter with prodigious power, Stewart is a strikeout machine that simply hasn’t been able to figure out big league pitching. Still, he’s only 26 years old, so perhaps a chance to play on a regular basis will allow the former first round draft pick to finally find his footing at the big league level.

By Ray Flowers

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

photo © 2009 Nicole Hernandez | more info (via: Wylio)

I’ve tried to explain how in the world that Jose Bautista is doing what he’s doing, an I’ve pretty much come up craps. In Take a Swing, Jeff Passan takes his hacks.

I don’t remember the last time I did this, but I’m going to quote myself (how narcisitic is that?). Here’s a Twitter post of mine from earlier today. “Did you listen to me about Trevor Cahill? Last five starts: 0-4, 7.52 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, 0.71 K/BB.” Well did you listen and downgrade him when I told you to or did you blindly push forward irrespecitve of my advice?

Carlos Carrasco has five wins in his last six outings and over his last two efforts, spanning 15.1 innings, he’s held the Twins and the Yankees off the scoreboard. All of a sudden everyone is interested in the Indians’ hurler. Carrasco, a former Phillies’ minor league standout, has done a good job limiting the walks at less than three per nine innings. However, his K-rate is barely over 5.50, and that portends trouble unless you are able to generate a lot of ground balls. Fortunately Carlos does a good job of inducing grounders with a 51.4 percent career GB mark. What I see here is a solid AL-only arm, but one that would be a stretch  in a 15 team mixed league. When he’s got the ground balls flowing he can pitch very well, but the lack of strikeouts means he isn’t going to be someone who makes a true impact in the fantasy game.

I’m still fielding questions about Josh Collmenter. Please tell me you aren’t one of the people asking if you’re in a mixed league. Collmenter has gotten by to this point with a boatload of luck, batters are having a hard time picking up his release point, but the truth of the matter is that Josh simply isn’t a very good pitcher. I know he has a 1.86 ERA an a 0.86 WHIP through 14 games which makes me look stupid, but scouts will tell you that he doesn’t own a single pitch that grades out as better than big league average. He doesn’t strike anyone out (5.74 per nine), doesn’t get any grounders (40 percent of batted balls), and has been one lucky devil with a .205 BABIP. He might end up with passable numbers by the time the season is over, but even if that’s the case there is a ton of regression coming down the pipe.

Alcides Escobar has hit .500 during his seven game hitting streak. He’s still hitting just .235 on the year, but he might be a person of interest in deep mixed leagues who use a middle infielder because in addition to all the hits of late he’s also started to run again with four steals in nine games. The key to that is simple – he’s finally getting on base. The owner of just 10 walks this season, Escobar owns a pathetic .267 OBP. You can’t steal a bag if you can’t get on base.

Everyone in the world seems to think that Jason Heyward is a wussy, and that he has lost all his talent and value. I don’t get that at all. Oh he might be a wussy or diva-like in not wanting to play when he isn’t 100 percent physically, but the skills are still elite (as an aside, he’s traveling to Atlanta to have his shoulder looked at and he could be back in action for the Braves very quickly). His is an example of people simply panicking because they aren’t seeing it on the field. I’m telling you, the young man still owns Hall of Fame talent, still lashes liners harder than just about any person on the planet, and should still be a building block if you’re in a keeper league. I’d bet that in two years you’ll have forgotten all about his dismal first half in 2011.

Josh Johnson was transferred to the 60 day DL. That means the Marlins’ ace will be out of action until at least July 16th. Johnson has yet to throw off the mound since hitting the DL with his shoulder woes, but the team remains confident that he will be ready to go as soon as he’s eligible. When injured he left behind some of the best numbers in the game (1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 56 Ks in 60.1 IP), but the guy is probably the riskiest top-10 hurler in the game.

Joakim Soria has saves in three straight outings since he returned to the closers role for the Royals. He also picked up a win in his outing previous to the saves run, and he is unscored upon in his last six outings. All is right in the world yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Moustakas Gets the Call

photo © 2010 Jeff Powers | more info (via: Wylio)

Today I’ll touch on the call up of Mike Moustakas, the struggles of Trevor Cahill and Ichiro Suzuki, the continued dominance of Justin Verlander and the fact that there is an NL batter who is excelling right under everyone’s nose.

Back in March I warned people not to reach for Trevor Cahill in Which Pitchers Should I Target? I then ranked Cahill as my 50th best pitcher in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers piece. People sent me some nasty notes saying I was stupid and completely overlooking the great work Cahill did in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). It’s still early, but I see vindication on the horizon. Cahill has lost his last four decisions and he has looked atrocious over his last four starts – 7.25 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 1.07 K/BB ratio. On the year Cahill still owns a strong 3.18 ERA an a passable 1.32 WHIP, but I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.

Without looking, who is leading the NL in OPS? If you guessed Lance Berkman (1.080) you’d be right. Some of you may have gotten that one, but tell me, who is sixth in the NL? If you haven’t looked at the list the past couple of days there is no way you would know that it’s the Rockies… Todd Helton (.928). Helton was horrible last year with a .728 OPS in 398 at-bats, but it seems like everyone just wrote him off coming into the year because of his age (38 in August) and back woes despite the fact that he was pretty darn good two years ago (.904 OPS). If you grabbed him late in your mixed league, great job.

Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .252 on the year including an impossible to believe .132 in June and .189 since the start of May in what has been the worst slump of his life (I contracted his t-ball coach to confirm). Ichiro is 37 years old, but can a guy who has 10-straight years of hitting .300 with 200-hits suddenly just stop hitting? I think it’s doubtful. His walk rate is better than normal, and his K-rate would be his best mark since his 2001 season. He is hitting more balls than ever on the ground (62 percent this year versus 56 for his career), but given his skill set that is better than the alternative of him hitting the ball into the air. Ichiro has seen a gradual reduction in his line drive rate the past few years, but his 17.6 percent mark is slightly better than the 17.3 percent rate from last season, yet somehow his BABIP has dropped from .353 to .273. Given that his career BABIP mark is .354 and that he has never finished a year below .316, I believe that mark, and his average, will rebound. He wont hit .328 this year – his career mark – but I think .300 is still doable.

Justin Verlander is 5-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last eight starts to improve his yearly totals to 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 93 Ks in 102.2 IP (8.15 K/9). Flat out, the guy is an ace.

ROYALS CALL UP SLUGGER

Mike Moustakas was called up by the Royals Thursday as they continue to switch gears midstream by calling up all their youthful talent. Here are my thoughts on the slugging third baseman.

The second player taken in the 2007 draft, Moustakas hit .322 with 36 homers and 124 RBI last year – in just 118 games mind you – to be named to just about every minor league all-star squad you can think of. He started out this season a bit slowly, but after hitting .356 over his last 10 games he upped his average to .287 in Triple-A with 10 homers and 44 RBI in 55 games. The young third baseman has power, plus power actually, and he should be able to flash that immediately with the Royals. For a slugger he also does a fairly good job at avoiding the whiffs, though that doesn’t mean he is ready to be a .300 hitter in the big leagues – he isn’t.

With third base being a minefield this season of injury and poor performance, Moustakas is a name you need to take immediate note of. In my recently released ROTW Rankings: Hitters piece, I listed Moustakas 19th at the position. Why so low? I honestly didn’t think he would be up for another month. At this point I have no problem moving him up to 15th on that list which means he is obviously an immediate add in 15 team leagues, and if you are in a 12 team league that uses corner infielders, he would also be a must add. Of course, this thumbs up shouldn’t be offered without my standard “be careful he is just a rookie with no big league experience” line. I’m predicting success here based on his skills and pedigree, but that is by no means a guarantee that he will live up to the hype in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Who is the AL Cy Young?

Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.

To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:

Who is the NL MVP?

Who is the AL MVP?

Who is the NL Cy Young?

AL Cy Young Discussion

Clay Buchholz: He battled for the AL lead in ERA all year before finishing second with a 2.33 mark. He was consistent all year long with a 2.45 ERA an a 1.25 WHIP in the first half an a 2.20 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP in the second. However, his candidacy will be hurt by the fact that he made only 28 starts covering 173.2 innings, and by the fact that he had only 120 strikeouts on the year. He was also the second best pitcher on his own team (more on that in a bit).

Trevor Cahill: The young A’s righty led baseball in BABIP this year. That obviously helped him to produce an out of nowhere season that defies traditional analysis. Cahill had just 118 Ks in 196.2 innings leading to a 1.87 K/BB ratio which is worse than the big league average. He somehow still managed to go 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP because, at least in part, that he was so hard to produce a hit off of (.220 BAA).

Felix Hernandez: Can he win the award with a record of 13-12 (no pitcher has won the award in a full season with less than 15 victories – and I’m not counting closers so you can save the angry emails)? King Felix led baseball with a 2.27 ERA. He led the AL with 249.2 IP. He was the hardest pitcher in the Junior Circuit to hit (.212 BAA). No pitcher could match his 30 quality starts. He was second in the AL with 232 Ks an a 1.06 WHIP. So how was he 13-12? Blame on offense that gave him the worst runs support in the AL at 3.75 runs per nine innings (teammate Jason Vargas was second with a 4.48 mark).

Cliff Lee: He split his season between the Mariners and the Rangers. He was phenomenal with and 8-3 record, 2.34 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts with the Rangers. Oh yeah, he walked six batters in that time. He wasn’t anywhere near as effective with the Rangers as he battled through injury (4-6, 3.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), but his overall numbers were still tremendous including a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and an almost unbelievable total of 18 walks in 28 starts. He has little chance to win the award given his record (12-9) and the fact that he was better in the first half (voters often have short memories).

Jon Lester: Finished just short of 20 victories with 19 including eight wins in his last 10 appearances, but Lester firmly established himself as one of the elite left-handed starters in the game. He posted a season (3.25 ERA, 225 K, 1.20 WHIP in 208 IP) that was damn near identical to his 2009 effort (3.41 ERA, 225 Ks, 1.23 WHIP in 203.1 IP). He was great, and could be helped by the fact that he pitches for the Red Sox.

David Price: The league’s third best in ERA at 2.72, Price had a solid 1.19 WHIP in his first full season in the big leagues (208.2 IP). Price fell just short of 20 with 19 wins, and he racked up an impressive total of 188 Ks. Unlike Lester, Price will be hurt by the fact that he plays for the Rays since no one on a national scene pays much attention to games played in the Sunshine State.

CC Sabathia: All he does is take the ball and produce wins year after year. CC was second in the league with 237.2 IP as he produced a major league best 21 victories. Sabathia also matched Price with a 1.19 WHIP while he snuck slightly ahead with 197 Ks. Of course, his WHIP was slightly higher at 3.18. Sabathia has been in the bigs for 10 years, and every one of those seasons he has lasted at least 180.1 IP while winning at least 11 games. The monstrous lefty is as consistently dominating as any starter in baseball.

Jered Weaver: All he did was lead baseball in strikeouts with 233, a career best. Weaver, like King Felix, was snubbed by his team as Jered went only 13-12 despite a 3.01 ERA (5th in the AL) and a 1.07 WHIP (3rd). Weaver also walked only 54 batters on the year leading to a 4.31 K/BB mark which just so happened to be second in the AL to Mr. Lee and third in all of baseball.

It will never happen, voters just won’t be able to look past the low win total, but the best pitcher in the AL this season was King Felix.

8- Clay Buchholz
7- Trevor Cahill
6- David Price
5- Cliff Lee
4- Jon Lester
3- Jered Weaver
2- CC Sabathia
1- Felix Hernandez

By Ray Flowers