Early Award Returns

I’ll certainly go into much greater depth on all of the major baseball awards between now and the time that the season is completed, but I just wanted to give a few thoughts on the races at this point as the season marches, inexorably, toward the conclusion of the regular season (go Giants).

AL MVP

Main Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko
Hamilton will lead baseball in batting average (.361), and he is hopeful of a return to action from his rib issue on Friday. Still, the guy has appeared in only two games in September and just 130 on the season. Is that really an MVP worthy campaign? There has only been one MVP who appeared in fewer than 15 September games in a non-strike season, and that was Dick Groat of the Pirates in 1960. I know it would make a great story, but I can’t give a thumbs up to a guy who didn’t do a damn thing in the seasons most important month.

NL MVP

Main Candidates: Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto
CarGo and Tulo will likely cancel each other out. The anti-Hamilton, look at their numbers in September: Gonzalez (.412-5-26-24 with a 1.131 OPS), Tulowitzki (.299-15-40 with a 1.148 OPS). If that means the decision is left to Pujols and Votto you have to think the fact that Votto’s Reds are playoff bound will tip the scales in his favor in the eyes of most voters since Votto and Pujols have had nearly identical numbers this season: Votto (.325-37-111-104-16 with a 1.029 OPS), Pujols (.313-42-117-113-13 with a 1.015 OPS). Will Pujols’ history win out over Votto’s winning record?

AL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price, CC Sabathia
The best pitcher in the AL has been Felix Hernandez, though he is a mere 13-12 because of brutal run support (the Mariners scored seven runs while he was in the game in his 12 loses). Hernandez leads the league in ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), innings pitched (249.2), quality starts (30) and he is second in WHIP at 1.06 (Cliff Lee has a 1.02 mark). Still, no starting pitcher, in a non-strike season, has ever won the award with fewer than the 15 victories that Tim Lincecum posted last season.

NL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright
Hudson ha lost four of five decisions as his ERA has gone from 2.24 to 2.76. Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break but only 4-7 since. Johnson leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA but he pitched only 183.2 innings and won just 11 games. That leaves Halladay and Wainwright to finish 1-2, with Halladay likely to win the award despite nearly identical totals: Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP), Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson
Feliz was left in the bullpen when the club realized it had a hole there (he was slated to spend at least some time in the rotation), and all Feliz has done is have the best closing season by a rookie in league history with a record 38 saves in just 41 chances. He’s also posted a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings.
Jackson has played strong defense in center field while at the same time scoring a ton of runs (102). He’s also hit nearly .300 at .299, while adding 26 steals. Do you favor pitching or hitting?

NL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Jamie Garcia, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez
One of the strongest rookie classes in recent memory. As much as people seem to want to hand the award to Heyward, there are a couple of salient points that Heyward apologists have to deal with. (1) Sanchez has one more homer with 19, while he has knocked in 12 more runs (83) then Heyward. Heck, Sanchez is only batting .003 points lower at .276. How many people think Sanchez should win the award? That’s exactly why Heyward’s candidacy isn’t as strong as some profess. (2) Buster Posey has only two fewer homers and seven less RBI than Heyward despite appearing in 35 fewer games. Posey also has a .020 point lead in OPS, and he is a catcher. I’m admittedly biased as a Giants fan, but I just don’t get all this Heyward talk.

By Ray Flowers

The Curious Case of Trevor Cahill

I admit it, I’m not always right. I’d like to think that more often than not I’ve got a handle on the world of baseball, but every once in a while I just have to throw my arms up and say I have no idea what is going on (i.e. Jose Bautista and his insane run to 40 homers). In the case of the historic excellence of Trevor Cahill I have to admit that not only did I not see it coming, I’m utterly shocked, and that doesn’t happen that often.

Here are the facts.

Cahill is second in the AL in ERA at 2.50.
Cahill is second in the AL in WHIP at 0.98.
Cahill is first in the AL in batting average against at .195.

As if that isn’t enough to knock you off your chair if you have been on a desert island with Yvonne Strahovski for the past four months (the beautiful blonde from CHUCK), how about this little whopper of historical greatness:

Trevor Cahill has made 20-straight starts in which he has thrown at least five innings while never allowing more than six hits.

While that may not sound like much, here is the context that makes that statement utterly amazing. That stretch of 20-straight starts of five innings and six or fewer hits allowed ties Nolan Ryan for the all-time modern day major league record. Think about that. I just said the words ‘all-time’ and ‘Nolan Ryan’ in the same sentence, and then related that statement to the performance of Mr. Cahill. Shocking isn’t a strong enough term to describe my reaction.

I’ll be the first to admit that scouts have long been impressed with the stuff of Cahill who, literally, has a difficult time throwing the ball straight (he gets tremendous movement on this tosses). At the same time, we all know that his current pace is nuts, don’t we?

(1) His current BAA is a joke. His stuff isn’t near strong enough to warrant a sub .200 mark (last season the best mark in baseball was .200 by Clayton Kershaw).

(2) Though he is an excellent ground ball inducer (56 percent of batted balls), there is little to no chance that Cahill will be able to continue to hold batters to a mere 14.4 percent line drive rate. Remember, the big league average is about 20 percent. Even if he substantially betters that league average mark, it’s still decidedly foolish to think he will be able to keep that LD-rate this low.

(3) His BABIP is laughably low. His .212 mark is .064 points below his mark from last season and it’s the best mark in the AL by some .044 points this year (Jeff Niemann). There is no way, none, zip, zilch, nada, that he can sustain that pace.

Does this mean that Cahill will fall flat on his face over the final quarter of the season? Not necessarily. Sometimes players are so locked in that they can outperform their skill level and taunt the gods of logic. At the same time, sooner or later the universe has a way of correcting itself (remember what happened to Fausto Carmona after his magical 2007 season?). Sooner or later Cahill is going to have to pay the Pied Piper – it’s only a matter of when his payment will be due.

By Ray Flowers