What is a HOF Closer?

We’d all like to think we could recognize greatness when we see it. When Albert Pujols unleashes his beautifully timed swing with an exquisite follow-through, you know you are witnessing greatness. When Roy Halladay is baffling hitters with pitches from all angles at all speeds going in all directions, you know you are witnessing greatness. But how do you know you are witnessing greatness when we are talking about relief pitchers who only toss an inning per outing?

This question will continue to be raised in the coming years, especially when it comes to Hall of Fame balloting as the voters try to place closers into historical context given that they have truly been a part of the landscape, at least in their current role, for barely 25 years. Is there a number of saves that guarantees election to the Hall of Fame like 300 wins for a pitcher and 3,000 hits for a batter? To this point in the voting process there is no agreed upon number for greatness. Lee Smith, who is third all-time with 478 saves, received only 45.3 percent of the vote in the latest go round (you need 75 percent to be inducted into the Hall). John Franco, who is 4th on the saves list with 424, was named only 27 ballots this year falling below five percent of the vote at 4.6 percent meaning he will no longer be eligible to be voted on during balloting. Apparently, 400 saves doesn’t guarantee you entry to the Hall.

But what about 500 saves? There are currently only two men in that club and one is Mariano Rivera with 559 saves. Will he make the Hall of Fame? Is that the dumbest question I have ever posed on BaseballGuys.com?

What about the other man with at least 500 saves, who is also the only man in history with 600 – Trevor Hoffman – who just announced his retirement from the game? Of course he will make the Hall of Fame, wont he? I say if he doesn’t get elected on the first ballot then the voters are detached from reality. Whatever you think of the save – and frankly it’s not a very good way to judge a pitchers effectiveness – the fact of the matter is that the game is run in order to get a team’s closer into the game in the 9th inning to seal a victory. Given that every team in the game follows this formula, how could you possibly not reward the men that were the best at what they do?

Hoffman led the league in saves, shockingly, only twice (53 in 1998 and 46 in 2006), in his storied career. Still, he is the all-time leader both in saves and games finished (856). Hoffman was also in the top-7 in saves 15 times in 16 seasons, only missing out in 2003 when injury limited him to nine innings. Moreover, Hoffman also had stretches of eight and six years in a row with 30-saves – the run of eight from 1995-2002 is tied with Rivera (2003-10) for the longest stretch in history. That means Hoffman racked up 14 seasons of 30 saves, the most in the history of the game (Rivera has 13 such seasons).

More than just a saves machine, Hoffman and his change-up posted an ERA of 2.87 for his career, 49.1 percent better than the league average of 4.28. Hoffman also registered a stupendous WHIP of 1.06, a K/9 mark of 9.36, and a K.BB ratio of 3.69. All of those numbers, every single one of them, speaks to Hoffman’s HOF credentials.

Obviously Hoffman did his job, arguably, as well as any man who ever played the game. However, he just doesn’t have the mystic of Mariano Rivera who not only pitches for the Yankees but somehow has gotten batters our for all of these years with just a single pitch. Not only that, Rivera has been the greatest postseason pitcher the game has ever seen; Rivera is 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.71 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over 139.2 innings whereas Hoffman made just 12 postseason appearances that included a blown save in his only World Series. Hoffman spent virtually his entire career on the West Coast meaning many people may have actually seen him pitch only a handful of times, and that certainly wont help his candidacy. He also toiled away on a second division club for the majority of his career, and his success was predicated on a devastating change-up that sure didn’t impress many who were watching the game from the grandstand. All Hoffman did, day after day, was get people out.

Will that be good enough for the Hall of Fame even if those who watched him pitch never used the word “greatness” to describe his work? Time will tell, but if I had a ballot I would put a check mark next to Trevor Hoffman’s name without hesitation – he was the best to ever fill the role of closer in the history of the National League.

By Ray Flowers

History and 3B for 2011

I got a hankering to write about third sackers today, so I’m gonna lead off the piece today with that before moving on to two players whose place in history is already secure. Will those two “old timers” hang them up after the 2010 season, or will they continue to hang around?

Aramis Ramirez just can’t stay healthy, and his most recent visits to the doctor’s office is for a strained quadriceps muscle. At the same time the guy has been nails since the All-Star game hitting .295 with an .899 OPS. He’s also gone deep 12 times while knocking in 41 runs in just 45 games – that’s roughly a pace for 45 homers and 150 RBI. That recent run of excellence has upped his year marks to 22 homers and 73 RBI in just 403 at-bats on the season. By the way, Ramirez has the same homer total as Alex Rodriguez and one more than Evan Longoria, while only one third basemen in the game has more RBI in fewer at-bats this season (Scott Rolen has 78 RBI in 408 at-bats). I’m still going to have Aramis Ramirez in my top-10 third basemen next season, in fact, I’ll likely have him much higher than that. Since I brought it up, here are my thoughts on who my top-10 are at third base for the 2011 season (if you want to see how the supremely intelligent Ted Carlson ranked the top-10 third basemen for next season you can give his piece a read his his Five Tool Blog). Here is my list.

1- David Wright

2- Evan Longoria

3- Alex Rodriguez

4- Ryan Zimmerman

5- Aramis Ramirez

6- Mark Reynolds

7- Pablo Sandoval

8- Michael Young

9- Adrian Beltre

10- Jose Bautista

I want to puke at listing Bautista at #10, but there will be many who will likely put him even higher. Putting Pablo ahead of Young is a bit risky, but I’m going with the youngster and the upside potential over Mr. Reliable from Texas. I hesitate to list Reynolds 6th given that he is batting a rancid .211, but he is still second at the position with 32 bombs, has knocked in 83 runs, has stolen seven bases and scored 74 runs.

Ivan Rodriguez hit an impressive .296 over the first 60 games of the season, but he has regressed substantially since the All-Star break with a .229 mark. On the year he is batting .270 which is certainly passable for a catcher, but his OBP is a sickly .292 which looks slightly better when you compare it to his mere .348 SLG. I-Rod is 193 hits short of becoming the first catcher to ever produce 3,000 hits, but does he have enough left to play two more season to get there?

Trevor Hoffman picked up his 600th save the other night in a truly remarkable display of longevity and effectiveness. Mariano Rivera has 555 career saves, but the next highest hurler who is currently in the big leagues is Billy Wagner (417) who has already stated, emphatically, that this will be his last season. This begs the question – who will be the next member of the 500 save club? The answer might be nobody, especially since the next active hurler is Francisco Cordero with 285 saves.

Back to Hoffman for a moment. He does have a 6.09 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP on the season, numbers that are completely out of place for the HOF bound hurler signaling that his career is at an end. However, if you look beneath the surface you will realize that over his last 29 games that he has posted a 2.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He’s no longer a viable 9th inning option, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t help someone’s bullpen in a setup role in 2011 if he wished to continue his illustrious career.

By Ray Flowers

Morrow Makes History – Sort Of

Brandon Morrow Strikes Out 17

Out of the cornfields he strode to the mound, his right arm smoldering after warming up in the bullpen. He took the mound, pulled his cap low across his eyes, reared back, and began to dismantle the opposition with some of the filthiest stuff the game is ever seen. He was untouchable, throwing strikes at will. For 8.2 innings not one batter could pick up a hit as Ray after Ray returned to the dugout with his head held low. Evan Longoria broke up the no-hitter with a grounder to the right side of the infield to break up the no-no in the ninth, a mere out from history. Undaunted, the flame throwing righty struck out Dan Johnson on his 137th pitch to end the one hitter. All told the California native struck out 17 batters, walked two batters, allowed just that single hit and obviously didn’t allow a run.

That pitcher is Brandon Morrow.

The strikeouts, one off the Blue Jays team record, were a surprise, but at the same time time Morrow does lead baseball with a 10.67 K/9 mark. He usually struggles with control, his BB/9 mark is 4.03, but clearly we saw yesterday what can happen when he locks in his pitches. Can he continue to throw strikes? That’s a good/open question. There is also the issue of how his arm will rebound from a career-high pitch total. Brandon has only two other games this season with as many as 110 pitches, so the hope is that this big pitch total from yesterday doesn’t weigh him down moving forward. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Blue Jays have him skip a start, or at best to severely limit his pitch totals the next few times out.

Closer Changes?

It’s that time of year for bullpens. There are a handful of teams that just might be making changes to the backend of their bullpens.

Florida Marlins: Leo Nunez has a 2.91 ERA, 49 Ks and a 4.08 K/BB mark in 46.1 innings. Those numbers are all strong. However, he has blown each of his last two chances and is 26-for-33 in converting saves on the year. Moreover, he has allowed six runs in his last three innings and seven in 5.2 innings. The team hasn’t said they will make a move, but it might be closing in changing things up in the ninth inning. “For now, he’s our closer, but if he doesn’t make an adjustment, we may have to explore other options — maybe do a closer by committee,” Marlins’ manager Edwin Rodriguez said.

Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Hoffman is three saves from 600, so the Brewers have an interest in helping him to make history before the year is over. He has pitched really well of late – 1.42 ERA over his last 19 appearances – so well in fact that he is now the co-closer with John Axford. “The thing with Hoffman is he’s earned his way back to saving games,” manager Ken Macha said. “That’s not to eliminate Axford from doing things, too, because he’s done nothing to write his name out.” Hoffman’s value goes up, Axford’s obviously goes down.

Washington Nationals: Drew Storen, the Nats closer of the future, isn’t quite ready to take over the closer reigns right now. “”For me, he is kind of a work in progress,” manager Jim Riggleman said. “He is showing flashes of a really fine guy at the back end of the bullpen — closer potentially.” Look for Storen, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard to share work in the 9th inning until one emerges.

Injury Notes

Andrew Bailey (rib/side) will likely miss at least another week more.

Daric Barton (shoulder) was forced from the game on Sunday. It is unclear if he will require a DL stint.

Gordon Beckham (groin) might end up missing a few days, though the injury isn’t thought to be serious.

A.J. Burnett (back) should be able to make his next start on Tuesday.

Eric Chavez (back/neck) is considering retirement.

Dustin Pedroia (foot) hopes he can return in about 10 days.

Alex Gordon (heel) says he is improving. Will continue to play through it.

Carlos Guillen (calf) has been activated from the DL.

Kyle Lohse (forearm) will make at least one more start in the minors.

Kris Medlen (elbow) will wait one more week before deciding if he needs Tommy John surgery.

Alex Rodriguez (shin) returned to action on Sunday for the Yankees.

Jason Varitek (foot) took BP on Sunday. There is still no timetable for his return.

Vernon Wells (toe) will undergo more tests on Monday after he injured his toe making a wonderful catch on Sunday trying to help Morrow to a no-hitter.

Jack Wilson (hand) had a fall at home and broke the fifth metacarpal bone in his right hand. He’ll be placed on the DL.

Notable Transactions

The Braves purchased the contract of Mike Minor.

The Giants will promote Emmanuel Burriss on Monday.

The Mariners will promote Chris Woodward on Monday.

The Orioles sent Troy Patton to the minors.

The Phillies sent John Mayberry to minors.

The Dodgers designated for assignment Garret Anderson and purchased the contract of Jay Gibbons.

The Tigers sent Will Rhymes to the minors when they activated Carlos Guillen.

The Nationals sent Collin Balester to the minors and recalled Jason Marquis.

Prospect Watch

The Athletics will call up Chris Carter, and Jeff Larish for that matter, on Monday. Carter has 27 bombs and 89 RBI at Triple-A this season, and those numbers go along nicely with his totals of the last two years: 38 HRs, 104 RBI and 28 HRs, 115 RBI last year. The kid can slug it, and with the injury to Daric Barton, Carter just might get the chance to play every day in Oakland.

By Ray Flowers

Commonalities Wanted

There’s no theme whatsoever to my article today. I just threw everything into a hopper and wrote about the names that fell out. Oh don’t worry, it’s really insightful stuff, there just isn’t a common thread to tie everything together.

Coco Crisp has been activated by the A’s. He hit .590 with five RBI during his rehab work in the minors signaling that his body might finally be right, finally. Still, there are about seven outfielders with the A’s club, so it remains to be seen if he will have a spot in the daily lineup, especially since his skills are so similar to those of Rajai Davis.

Mark DeRosa’s season is over as he will need surgery to repair his injured wrist. In the first year of a $12 million two year contract, DeRosa gave the Giants all of one homer, 10 RBI and 93 at-bats. That’s almost as bad an investment as The Bachelor’s Jake Pavelka made in his lady friend, Vienna Girardi. Oh stop acting like you don’t watch the show – we all know you do.

Josh Hamilton is back, and it appears that he is better than ever before. Josh is hitting .337, has a 16 game hitting streak, and is sporting a .981 OPS. Back in his “breakout” 2008 effort he hit .304 with a .901 OPS. He’s frighteningly talented.

Trevor Hoffman has been awful for most of the year, everyone knows that. However, he has improved tremendously of late and appears on the cusp of reclaiming his 9th inning role. “We kind of talked about that several times today,” manager Ken Macha said. “We’ll see how some things go. That is two good outings in a row, so I’ll talk to him [Thursday] and see how he’s feeling about himself.” If you are a John Axford owner you’ll want to hold on, but make sure Hoffman isn’t on waivers if you play in a deep league.

Jamie Moyer is almost old enough to join AARP as he is 47 years old. Amazingly, he has stuck around long enough to pile up 265 victories. That total places him 10th all-time in victories by a lefty, an it’s also one behind the immortal Bob Feller and three behind Jim Palmer. Need some more info about just how amazing Moyer’s career has been? Since turning 30 he has won 231 games, the sixth most ever from that age to the end of a player’s career. To put that win total in perspective, Roy Oswalt has 142 victories, Tim Hudson 155 and Roy Halladay 156 — in their entire careers.

Buster Posey, everyone’s darling when he was called up, has hit the skids of late with a mere .186 average and a .524 OPS over his last 43 at-bats. His average is still shade over .300 at .303, but his .421 SLG is a pretty pathetic number for a first sacker (the NL average for the position is .458). I know it borders on heresy in some corners, but Posey really needs to pick it up or he could start to lose playing time (he isn’t in the lineup on Tuesday night as Pablo Sandoval is at first with Juan Uribe at third).

Mike Stanton, who I spoke of yesterday in my Around the Horn, June 21st video, deserves to be mentioned again. Here is, in written word, what I spoke of yesterday; you simply cannot have success in the big leagues if you strikeout more than 40 percent of the time. I know it’s a miniscule sample size we’re breaking down with the talented Fish, but 19 whiffs in 43 at-bats gives him a K-rate of 44.2 percent. Chris Davis, basically demoted to the minor because he whiffs too often, owns a K-rate of 34.7 percent in his career. Other noted purveyors of the strikeout follow with their career K-rates in parenthesis: Ryan Howard (32.3), Adam Dunn (32.4), Mark Reynolds (38.2) and Jack Cust (39.1). As you can tell from that list you can be mighty successful in the bigs even if you pile up copious amounts of strikeouts, but if Stanton wants to make his mark this season he’s gonna have to knock like 10 percentage points off his current rate.

By Ray Flowers

Wacky Wednesday

Wednesday is a weird day. It’s the middle of the five day work week for most, but for me its just another day (I can’t remember the last time I actually worked only five days in a week). In fact, I can’t remember the last time that I took a real vacation – it’s been years. That signals a couple of things. (1) I’m the best employee of all-time. (2) I need to get a life. (3) I really need to get a girlfriend so I have a reason to take some time off. With that off my chest – I wonder if that was some Freudian comment related to #3? – let me get to some comments about what is going on across the field of baseball on this day.

* Milton Bradley ahs been activated from the restricted list and is back in the lineup on Wednesday for the Mariners. Hopefully he won’t fall asleep in the dugout between innings with Ken Griffey Jr. I put the over/under at a Bradley outburst or injury at nine days.

* Ike Davis will be the Mets’ cleanup hitter for the foreseeable future according to Adam Rubin of ESPN. Makes total sense doesn’t it? I mean Davis is hitting .241 over his last 16 games, has one homer in his last 11 games and has 17 Ks in his last 54 at-bats. Do the Mets ever do anything that makes sense?

* Am I the only person in America who thinks that Chris Berman of ESPN has an expiration date that we are about eight years past?

* Trevor Hoffman will spend the next few days working on his mechanics to see if he can fix whatever in the hell is causing him to look like the best batting practice pitcher in baseball. Quickly, here is what I see. He has allowed 69 percent of batted balls to go in the air, 20 percent above his career rate. Combine that fact with a 20.0 percent HR/F mark, almost triple his career rate (6.7 percent), and it’s easy to see why he has struggled, that and the fact that he has almost doubled his walk rate. He’s actually throwing his fastball at 85.4 mph, a mere tenth of a mile below his career 85.5 percent mark. While people continue to deride the location of his pitches, it is odd to see that the percentage of pitches he has thrown outside the strike zone that have been hit is 66.7 percent, a massive increase over his career rate of 51.6 percent. You could probably get him for nothing at this point, and that’s something I would do since I don’t think he is done being an effective big league hurler. It wouldn’t hurt to pick up Carlos Villanueva though since he should at least get a shot a few saves in the short-term thanks to his 11.76 K/9 rate and 1.06 WHIP over 19 appearances this season.

* What the hell are the Rockies doing with Chris Iannetta? The Rockies claim they have a plan to get the young bopper back in action with the big club, but at this point I’m wondering if that outfit is being led by Elmer Fudd. I mean really. Iannetta is hitting .375 with five homers, 21 RBI and a 1.205 OPS in 14 games in Triple-A. You think he should be in the majors given those numbers? Morons (and yes I’m upset because I have Iannetta wasting away on one of my rosters).

* Freddy Sanchez has been activated from the DL for the Giants. He’ll likely end up being eased back into action. There is no truth to the rumor that the average age of the Giants’ infield will be high enough to get them a senior citizen discount on the Grand Slam breakfast at Denny’s.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April28, 2010

(1) Kurt Suzuki continues to miss time with sore side. Jake Fox nearing catcher eligibility.

(2) Brett Anderson’s elbow flexor strain is really a muscle strain.

(3) Blown saves everywhere – Octavio Dotel, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Madson.

(4) Frank Francisco closing gap on Neftali Feliz?

(5) Matt Capps first to 10 saves.

(6) Justin Morneau could miss rest of the week with back issue.

(7) The world of numbers and hitting broken down at By The Numbers – Hitters including the lack of power from Joe Mauer.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: PART III

In my last two posts, I discussed the team I rostered in the K-BAD experts league. In Part III of my review, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft played out after quickly running through my final few selections.

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD: Part I.

If you want to read my review of picks 11-28, click on the link to K-BAD: Part II.

ROUND 21: Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I may not have saves in abundance, but Thornton and my last pick, Ryan Madson, give me arguably two most talented setup men in the game.

ROUND 22: Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Once upon a time he went 30/25. Hell, it was just the other day really (2007). If he comes through in ’09 he could be a cheap, vastly underrated, 20/20 option.

ROUND 23: Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Seems refocused knowing his career might be on the line. Too bad the Nationals didn’t buy it as they let him go. This is what happens when you do a draft far in advance of any meaningful games.

ROUND 24: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
My third straight young outfielder. All three have a ton of potential, and each could be a terrific fifth outfield option this year.

ROUND 25: Rod Barajas, C, Mets
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
This late you can throw a dart. Hopefully Rod will hit 15 long balls and bat .250. If he does, I’ll be ecstatic. If not, I’ll hit the waiver-wire.

ROUND 26: Brandon Lyon, RP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
There were certainly better relievers still available, but being that I’m weak in saves I had to take a chance on this inferior relief option.

ROUND 27: Casey Blake
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
He has no upside, but I had him as 15th best third basemen so no harm in taking him this late. See Breaking Down: Casey Blake.

ROUND 28: Brett Myers, SP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Not a bad last pick. Seriously. If he can control the homers, in tough park for pitchers, he could return 15th round value.

Here is my team (number is round selected).

C Russell Martin 11
C Rod Barajas 25
1B Miguel Cabrera 1
2B Brian Roberts 3
3B Casey Blake 27
SS Miguel Tejada 9
MI Dan Uggla 6
CI Lance Berkman 5
OF Carl Crawford 2
OF Ichiro Suzuki 4
OF Andrew McCutchen 7
OF Ryan Ludwick 15
OF Chris Young 22
UT David Ortiz 18

P Yovani Gallardo 8
P Scott Baker 10
P James Shields 12
P Trevor Hoffman 13
P Ryan Dempster 14
P Brad Lidge 17
P Aaron Harang 19
P Ryan Madson 20
P Matt Thornton 21

Bench Rafael Furcal 16
Bench Elijah Dukes 23
Bench Delmon Young 24
Bench Brandon Lyon 26
Bench Brett Myers 28

Team Review:

* I already have my fingers crossed. When the draft took place Roberts, Berkman and Martin where totally healthy, and Dukes still had a big league job. So are the breaks of the game.

* Blake in the 27th round was a nice grab, and I’ll have Tejada as an option at the hot corner as well once season gets underway.

* Crawford and Ichiro are a dynamic duo in the OF. If McCutchen does what many expect, that is one potentially fantastic threesome. The group is light on power though, so I added Ludwick who should be a fine 5th hitter for the Cardinals. My final outfield spot will go to one of two men who could be a terrific 5th option – D. Young, C. Young (Dukes hosed me).

* My offense might be a bit light on pop but you can’t have everything when picking against astute owners in an experts league.

* My staff has as good a 5-some of hurlers as any in the league: Gallardo, Baker, Shields, Dempster and Harang. Not a “superstar” amongst them, but that is a fantastic group of arms.

* My bullpen is thin. Every time I went to grab a closer someone else did. In fact, I had only one closer heading into the 17th round. At the end of the round I had two (gulp with Lidge), but another team had three and one grabbed a 4th in 18th. Closers went way too early in this league if you ask me. I didn’t want to roster a flunky just cause they were going, so I ended up passing and grabbed two of the best set up men in the game in Madson and Thornton. In the 26th round I then grabbed Lyon who could be the full-time closer in Houston, a part time option, or a total failure. Still, in the 26th, it was a risk worth taking.

* My staff is really strong top to bottom. I’ll need some help in the saves category, hopefully I’ll be able to snag one of those guys off waivers since there are always at least a handful of guys who emerge, but I should be sitting pretty in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

Random Thoughts:
* Surprised to see these power arms not drafted: Luke Gregerson, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, C.J. Wilson and George Sherrill.

* No one took the steady Andy Pettitte, or last year’s ground ball star Joel Pineiro.

* Three Cubs outfielders were left on waivers: Xavier Nady, Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd.

* Youngsters Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin also went teamless. Each offers some upside and should have been rostered in my opinion.

* At second, Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis are free agents. I would be shocked if both don’t end up as top-20 options at second, and both have a chance to sneak into the top-15.

* No one bought into Russell Branyan repeating his effort from last season now that he is with the Indians, so he was left undrafted. Across the diamond, here are a few of the third basemen that went undrafted as well: Mark Teahen, Mike Lowell, Brandon Inge, Juan Uribe and Adam Kennedy.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year as to how my team stacks up. Let’s just hope there aren’t more injuries prior to the season starting – there is nothing more frustrating that losing because your guys are on the shelf.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Part II

For the second straight year, I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL. Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be me). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the ninth pick in the draft which was completed near the start of March).

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD – Part I.

ROUND 11: Russell Martin, C, Dodgers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Maybe the extra 20 lbs will allow him to drive the ball deep again. He wasn’t as bad as it looked last year, and is still a top-7 option in my mind – or at least he was until he was injured (this pick was made before his ill health hit). Martin is progressing well and may not miss more than a handful of games to start the year.

ROUND 12: James Shields, SP, Rays
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Shields was the last, reliable, top shelf option left on my draft board amongst starting pitchers, so I’m very comfortable with him as my third starter.

ROUND 13: Trevor Hoffman, RP, Brewers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Safe, old and boring, all Hoffman does is rack up 30-saves year after year. In each of his last 14 healthy seasons he has hit that level, so there is no reason to think he will produce anything less this season.

ROUND 14: Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The most skilled starting pitcher left on my board or a middling OF? I decided to roster a fourth solid starter since no one stood out in the outfield.

ROUND 15: Ryan Ludwick
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Immediately after making the pick, I slightly regretted it. Not because Ludwick will fail in 2010, he’ll hit behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the center of a powerful Cardinals’ lineup, but because Mike Gonzalez was taken with the next pick and I need save help.

ROUND 16: Rafael Furcal
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
A risk since he stopped running last season. Still he is a decent starting option at short, and he will allow me to use Tejada at third base once the season gets underway.

ROUND 17: Brad Lidge, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
What, you think he won’t rebound in 2010? I’m not sure either, but I had only one reliever at this point so I had to take a chance that his elbow and knee will be healthy enough for him to return to a high level of effectiveness if his BABIP returns to normal.

ROUND 18: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I agonized a bit here, but at this point a 25+HR, 90+RBI guy isn’t all that bad, and I needed the pop based on the rest of my lineup.

ROUND 19: Aaron Harang, SP, Reds
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The results weren’t there last season for Harang, but he isn’t that far off his 2006-07 form that he should be getting this little respect. He’s a great 5th starter for my club.

ROUND 20: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
As talented as any reliever left on the board, he is my handcuff in case Lidge isn’t ready to go because I only had two closers at this point of the draft in Lidge and Hoffman.

By Ray Flowers

The Week that Was

With the Academy Awards due to be handed out this weekend, I thought I would take a break from all the face time I give myself with my video segments in Around the Horn. I wouldn’t want to make the “professionals” look bad. So today all you’ll get is my razor sharp wit through the written word.

* How great is it to have baseball games, and therefore box scores, to watch/read each day? I’m fortunate as hell to have my job, who wouldn’t want to immerse themselves in sports all day, and that point is squarely driven home when I can turn on the MLB Network at 10 AM and get the chance to watch a spring training ballgame. Priceless.

* Did you catch my recent review of the Dodgers’ third baseman Casey Blake? In case you missed it, here is a morsel to get you to click on over. “Did you know that over the past three years that Blake has hit at least .270-18-78-7… only he and Alex Rodriguez can make that claim at third base.”

* Peter Gammons came out and said that Delmon Young looked great and that he thinks he has finally figured it out. I give my thoughts on the young outfielder in Breaking Down: Delmon Young. “He is also one of just 21 guys who have had at least 400 plate appearances in each of the past three years who has hit at least .284 in each of those seasons.”

* Are you as confused as I am with all the uncapped NFL stuff? Sorry I slipped there and mentioned the pigskin. I guess it’s just a left over reflex from the recently completed season.

* Can Bobby Jenks hold down the White Sox closers spot in 2010? He’s in better physical shape and is ready to attack hitters again. Read about him in Breaking Down: Bobby Jenks? “Jenks has posted at least 29 saves in each of the past four seasons. There are only seven men in the group that have accomplished that: Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero and of course Jenks.”

* Since I slipped and mentioned football above, I thought I might as well reference my NHL Trade Diary piece as well. I tell you, I literally sat at my computer for eight straight hours the day of the trade deadline writing that piece. That isn’t hyperbole either. I literally was at the ready for about seven hours and 55 minutes as I only took about five minutes out of that time to get a few drinks (juice, not booze), go to the bathroom a couple of times, and to stock up on granola bars that I ate throughout the day. What I do for my craft. You should have seen more poor back at the end of the day. Cue the violins.

* It’s not the be all end all of pitching analysis, but did you catch my creation to measure pitchers effectiveness called Average Bases Allowed? I think it should replace WHIP in fantasy leagues, even if few agree with me.

* Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes as the Yankees fifth starter? I’m already tired of the debate. Face it everyone – ALMOST EVERY HURLER WOULD BE MORE DOMINATING OUT OF THE BULLPEN. I mean seriously, how many times have you heard “…Joba loses about five mph when he starts, he just loses his willingness to attack hitters.” Um, sorry morons, he’s throwing five mph slower because he has to last for 100 pitches, not 20 like he did when he worked out of the pen. Memo to the Yankees – leave Joba in the rotation, remove the stupid Joba Rules, or just move the guy to the bullpen forever. It’s not that complicated is it?

I’m out.

By Ray Flowers

Some Regular Season Thoughts

With Game 163 on the docket tonight, playoff fever is in the air. But before we totally succumb to that level of trepidation and elation, I thought I would hit on a few of the storylines from the regular season that popped into my noggin’ today.

Andrew Bailey isn’t getting a lot of pub when it comes to the AL Rookie of the Year award, and you can thank the fact that he played half his games in front of about 11,000 people a night out in Oakland. If he pitched for the Yankees or the Red Sox he would be a household name. Bailey saved 26 games for an A’s team that won only 75 contests, and along the way he posted a 1.84 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a strong 9.83 K/9 mark. How many hurlers posted an ERA below 1.90 with a WHIP below 0.90 and racked up at least 25 saves this past season? The answer is one – one. Mariano Rivera had a 0.90 WHIP and Trevor Hoffman had a 0.91 WHIP. They were close, but no cigar.

Homer Bailey may have finally established himself at the major league level. Over his last seven starts he went 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 42 Ks over 43.3 innings pitched. He still hasn’t really solved those control issues (3.95 BB/9 in that time), but he may just have picked up enough about the art of pitching to get by with his above average stuff.

Chris Coghlan finished sixth in the NL batting race hitting .321 as a rookie for the Marlins. Not only was he a tremendous option for his overall work – he was actually flat out amazing over the second half of the season as he hit a Joe Mauer-like .372 over his final 72 games covering 304 ABs. Moreover, if we remove May when he was finding his legs in the bigs, Coghlan hit .338 over his 438 ABs. Not a bad rookie season Mr. CC.

Pablo Sandoval has got to be 30 pounds overweight, and I swear to my maker that he is off balance on literally about 50 percent of his swings, not to mention that he obviously went to the Vladimir Guerrero school of ‘if it’s in the air I’m going to swing at it.’ Despite all that, and the fact that he entered 2009 with only 145 big league at-bats, the Kung Fu Panda was second in the NL in the batting race (.330) while socking 25 homers, knocking in 90 runs and finishing seventh with a .943 OPS. I know it’s hard to believe, but I’m telling you this kid has a lot to learn about hitting. I don’t know if that means he will improve upon his current level of production, but he can certainly improve his technique and approach, and that has to be one scary thought for hurlers.

Vincente Padilla came over to the Dodgers after going 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with the Rangers. I, for one, though this was a desperate move. I still think it was, but the fact of the matter is that it has certainly paid dividends for the Dodgers who got some terrific work from the righty in his eight appearances (4-0, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). In his last start he lasted seven innings against the Rockies striking out a season best 10 batters, and as a result he will apparently start Game 3 of the first round of the playoffs for the Dodgers. It certainly would help the Dodgers outlook immensely if they were able to get the “real” Chad Billingsley in the playoffs after he struggled pretty heavily down the stretch with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over his last 14 appearances (he did last 12 innings in his last two starts, but he went 0-1 with a 3.75 while walking nine batters). Don’t know about you, but I simply cannot count the Dodgers as a legitimate World Series contender if they are counting on Padilla to be their third starter in the playoffs.

Lastly, if you want some info about Game 163 pitting the Twins against the Tigers, give Around the Horn a read.

By Ray Flowers