Draft Day Challenge, May 16

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s every week, I’ll share some insight into a few of the better plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Tyler Flowers
2. Kurt Suzuki

Flowers is hitting .333 the past week and he faces the middling Jerome Williams who has allowed seven runs over his last 11 innings despite being solid this year with a 3.06 ERA.

Wilson Ramos is hurt again, and it looks like a DL stint could be coming. Suzuki should get lots of work behind the dish, and he’s got a hit in nine of his last 10 games.

FIRST BASE
1. Lyle Overbay
2. Adam LaRoche

A surprising contributor for the Yankees this season, Overbay should keep the good times rolling against Aaron Harang whom he has 11 hits in 24 at-bats against (.458 average).

LaRoche has gone 5-for-14 (.357) against Mr. Volquez with two walks leading to a .438 OBP. LaRoche has also been hot of late (.321 with a homer and four RBIs the past week) making him a strong play.

SECOND BASE
1. Marco Scutaro
2. Dustin Pedroia

Scutaro is hitting .480 the past week with six runs scored. When you are producing like that it doesn’t matter who you are facing (it’s Jhoulys Chacin in Colorado where Scutaro has hit .378 for his career).

Can Mr. Cobb of the Rays stop Pedroia who has 12 hits in his last 24 at-bats (.500)?

THIRD BASE
1. Pablo Sandoval
2. Adrian Beltre

I’ve never been a huge fan of Jhoulys Chacin, not when pitching in Colorado, and that’s where he takes the hill against Pablo Sandoval who is hitting .412 with two homers against him in 17 at-bats.

It’s tough to go with anyone when they face Justin Verlander, but Beltre has long held his own. He’s hit .314 with a homer in 35 at-bats, though his OPS has only been .771.

SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Yunel Escobar

Tulo is the best hitting shortstop in the game right now (Tulo is hitting .322, has a 1.013 OPS and 32 RBIs in 36 games). He’s also murdered Matt Cain hitting .340 with four homers in 53 games. The matchup will also take place in Colorado. Nuff said.

Escobar has four hits in 10 at-bats against the struggling Felix Doubront (he’s allowed a whopping 12 runs over his last nine innings pitched). Escobar might finally be pulling out of his season long slump as well as he’s hit in four straight and seven of eight games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jason Bay
2. Dayan Viciedo

Want a cheap outfield option who has had a great amount of success against the hurler he’s facing? Bay has hit .400 in 35 at-bats against Andy Pettitte who has a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP the past three weeks.

Viciedo has looked good since he returned to action (Viciedo has hits in nine of 10 games, and he’s gone deep twice with four RBIs in his last three outings). Can’t get any better than he has been against Jerome Williams though as he is a perfect 5-for-5. He even has a walk which might be more shocking.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Alex Cobb
4. Matt Cain

Quintana has a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 ERA on the season, and he faces the Angels in Anaheim Thursday. In his last outing he allowed six base runners and two earned runs over six innings against this same Angels club. Does the hitters familiarity, having seen him less than a week ago, scare you off?

Volquez has a 3-0 record and 2.49 ERA the past three weeks as he’s all of a sudden locked in. He’s facing a Nats team that is down Jayson Werth and potentially Bryce Harper, but that’s still a solid club and the game is on the road where Volquez often struggles.

Cobb had an astounding 13 Ks in his last outing, astrounding because he only recorded 14 outs (that’s the first time that has ever happened in big league history). Cobb faces the Red Sox, a team he allowed three earned runs, while striking out six batters, in a 6.2 inning loss on April 14th. He has a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over four starts agianst the Sox.

Cain pitches in Colorado, and that’s always a difficult thing for any hurler, but Cain has pitched very well against the Rockies in his career with a 15-7 record an a 3.11 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in Colorado. Cain is also 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA the past three weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball: Early Returns

The 2013 baseball season is finally underway. The story of the first few days of the season is the success of starting pitchers, highlighted by the near run to perfection from Yu Darvish (more on that below). However, that doesn’t mean it’s only been about pitching, there are still some offensive moments of note, so I’ll basically be doing what I often do – rambling without rhythm or reason around the diamond.

The Padres sound like a team that plans on pulling a Medlen with Andrew Cashner. By that I mean it sounds like the Padres will use Cashner out of the bullpen early before slowly transitioning him into the starting rotation. By doing just that they will help to ensure that Cashner is healthy and not overworked in the early going while also helping to limit the total number of innings on his arm (Cashner was limited to 15.1 innings and 2011 and 69.2 last season so it might be a wise decision to try to keep the innings down). For now the Padres will go with Tyson Ross but Cashner could be a starter for half the year if he proves himself to be healthy an effective.

Yu Darvish almost made history last night coming within one out of the 24th perfect game in big league history. The highlights. (1) His first walk free outing in the big leagues. (2) A career-high 14 Ks including strikeouts 14 of the 16 times he reached two strikes on a batter. No pitcher has ever tossed a perfect game in his first outing of the season. One other note. Going back nine starts to last season Darvish has a 2.05 ERA. A fantasy ace is being born folks.

R.A. Dickey walked four batters in his first start with the Blue Jays, something he did only two times in 33 starts in 2012. Dickey allowed four runs, three earned, as he picked up a loss to the Indians. After the game he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and I hate to tell you that I think he might finish the year with numbers closer to that than the 2.73 and 1.05 marks he posted last season.

Jaime Garcia actually looked pretty good in his first outing holding the D’backs to just two hits and one run in 5.2 innings. I still don’t trust him, and neither should you.

Through two games the Rockies have two fellas who have gone deep twice – Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. As always, as long as they stay healthy they will be huge performers. Just for the fun of it here are each fellas 162 game averages.

Tulo: .292-29-103-103-12
CarGo: .300-28-98-106-24

Matt Kemp doesn’t have a hit in 5-straight games. I don’t think that streak will last much longer.

Lynn Collins in the movie John Carter… absolutely stunning.

Leonys Martin is starting in center field for the Rangers Wednesday. Martin is sharing time in center with Craig Gentry, but Martin figures to be the lead dog in the race for at-bats. Martin has hit only .193 in 57 big league at-bats, but he’s got skills and killed it last year in Triple-A (.359-12-42-48-10 in just 55 games). There’s a very talented fantasy performer lurking here despite the fact that he is owned in only 49 percent of Fleaflicker leagues.

Happy Birthday Jeff (my brother). We’re two years and two days apart, and even though he is my younger brother I’ve never given him much crap cause he is such a cool dude.

Michael Morse hit two home runs Tuesday night continuing the onslaught of fireworks that occurred in Spring Training. Morse hit .303 with 31 homers in 2011 so we know that he can ball, but let me note a few things you should remember. Morse has had a K-rate over 21 percent each of the past five seasons. He relies on a high BABIP to help him in the batting average category (.344 for his career). Morse also owns a career fly ball rate of 32 percent, about three percent below the league average meaning he just doesn’t hit that many fly balls. He’s always been able to convert a high percentage of those fly balls into homers, his HR/F ratio is 18.6 percent but if that number were to dip even a bit he would have a very tough time pushing 30 homers.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Rutledge

When is 277 at-bats enough to determine the value of a player? If you have followed my work for any appreciable amount of time you will know that I’m a big fan of sample sizes. By that I mean we need to have enough data at our fingertips to be able to adequately assess a player’s outlook. For me, 277 at-bats, a half season of work, isn’t nearly enough to paint a fully developed picture of what is going on with a player. For others though it seems like 277 at-bats is plenty. Take the Curious Case of Josh Rutledge…

A third round selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft, Rutledge played his college ball at the University of Alabama. He appeared in 11 games at Low-A ball in 2010, then 113 at High-A in 2011 before appearing in 87 games at Double-A before he received his call up last season due to the injury to Troy Tulowitzki. That means Rutledge has 211 games and 855 at-bats of minor league experience on his resume, and just 87 games worth above A-ball. Normally I would be telling people they are crazy if they think that’s enough work for a guy in the minor leagues cause it ain’t much. In those less than 950 plate appearances Rutledge hit .320 with a .374 OBP and .496 SLG. Those numbers play in any league of course. He also had 22 homers, 110 RBIs, 154 runs scored and 31 steals. To say he was a dynamic performer is an understatement. Remember though, only 356 at-bats above A-Ball.

When he was called up last year by the Rockies Rutledge hit .274 with a .306 OBP and .469 SLG. The fact that his numbers regressed from the minor leagues is totally normal. While the SLG was impressive for a middle infielder, there are some concerns with the other two numbers. Admitting that 277 at-bats is nowhere near enough to make a definitive call on anyone, I’m going to be even more obnoxious and shrink things down even further by looking at his season by month.

July: .381/.394/683 (63 ABs)
August: .317/.333/.598 (82 ABs)
September: .209/.266/.304 (115 ABs)
October: .118/.118/.176 (17 ABs)

I know the same size is extremely small but each month his AVG, OBP and SLG went down.

There is also this; Rutledge hit .247 with a .279 OBP in 81 at-bats against lefties.

Piling on.

Rutledge only took nine walks in 291 plate appearances. Nine. That’s atrocious. He also struck out 54 times leaving him with a simply pathetic 0.17 BB/K mark, well under 60 percent off the big league average. Ugh is right.

Though he went deep eight time in those 277 at-bats, Rutledge hit a total of one home run over his last 37 games. He also had a 31 percent fly ball rate, some four percent below the big league average, and that doesn’t exactly paint him as a big time home run threat despite the suggestion that his hot start last year has put into folks minds.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

To review.

Rutledge has one season of experience above Single-A ball.

His performance at the big league level tailed off dramatically as the season wore on.

He’s not likely to be a 20 homer threat even with a full season of at-bats.

It’s unclear if he can improve upon his .274 batting average from last season given his terrible plate discipline and struggles versus lefties.

Now you know the negative. Now a few big positives.

(1) He will play half his games in Coors Field.

(2) He will enter the year qualified at shortstop after appearing in 57 games there last season. With Tulowitzki back Rutledge will be the Rockies’ second baseman giving him strong positional flexibility.

(3) Though he may not be a 20 homer threat, 15 big flies seems doable. Also, he possesses speed. Josh was 7-for-7 last year in steal attempts with the Rockies, and he swiped 14 bases in Double-A before he was called up. The end result being that Rutledge has a shot at a 15/15 season from either the shortstop or second base position in fantasy.

It seems to me that there are more concerns than outright pluses here, but I appear to be in the minority. I’m a fan of Rutledge, don’t get me wrong, but I think his current ADP of 10th at the shortstop position is totally bonkers. People love youngster and the possibility they bring, but I just can’t understand why anyone would take Rutledge ahead of a guy like Alexei Ramirez who has been a solid big league hitter for five years (their ADP has them being take about 35 spots apart). Maybe Rutledge lives up to expectations this year and has that 15/15 season with a ton of runs scored with the Rockies, but I’d prefer a guy with 2,800 big league at-bats like Ramirez over a guy who doesn’t even have 280 at the big league level, especially when that youngster failed miserably for half the time he was in the big leagues (don’t forget that over his final 32 games last season that Rutledge hit .197 with one home run, 10 RBIs and two steals). It’s amazing to me, always has been, at how people are so willing to take a shot on something new and flashy while totally discounting something that is a bit worn in.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Shortstop

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2012 SHORTSTOP Top-10

1 Troy Tulowitzki
2 Jose Reyes
3 Hanley Ramirez
4 Elvis Andrus
5 Starlin Castro
6 Jimmy Rollins
7 Derek Jeter
8 Alexei Ramirez
9 Asdrubal Cabrera
10 Yunel Escobar

Tulowitzki appeared in 47 games, his first season of less than 101 in six years. Over the previous five seasons he average 134 games a campaign, meaning he has averaged missing a month a season before 2012. The production is amazing, but the risk simply too high to overlook.

Reyes came on in the second half and as a result his first season in Miami was right where it should have been as he posted a fantasy line of .287-11-57-86-40. Note the last time he stole 50 bases was 2008.

Ramirez hit 24 homers with 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 runs. Given that he also qualified at third base he was a strong play in 2012. Still, what happened to the perennial .300 hitter? Over his last 942 at-bats he has hit .252 with a poor .326 OBP (he batted .319 from 2007-10).

Andrus scored 85 runs for the third straight year while reaching career bests in doubles (31), triples (nine), RBIs (62), batting average (.286), OBP (.349) and SLG (.378). The only downer was a four year low of 21 steals, this after 3-straight seasons of at least 32 thefts.

Castro is just 22 years old, and he’s has been an impressive performer in his young career hitting .297. He’s also stolen 22 and 25 bases the past two years while scoring an average of 85 runs the past two campaigns. He also saw his homers (14) and RBIs (78) reach career bests in his third season. The guy’s attitude still makes me all kind of nervous though.

Rollins went 20/20 this year… from June 1st to the end of the season. That might be the most amazing number you will read in any of the position reviews. On the season he had 23 homers, 30 steals, 102 runs scored and 68 RBIs in yet another “Rollins-like” effort.

Jeter was just about used up according to most. At least I didn’t think that. Jeter went out and had 216 hits, the most in baseball, as he scored 99 times, hit 15 homers and knocked in 58 runners. He stole only nine bases, his first season of single digits ever, but he was once again an elite at the position.

Ramirez is as steady as pretty much any player in the game. He’s not elite at anything unfortunately, but always productive. He stole a career best 20 bases while driving in 73 runners, the second best mark of his career. However, he also hit only .265 with nine homers and 59 runs scored. At least he didn’t kill you.

From Cabrera’s Player Profile before the season. “Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average… but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.” Cabrera hit .270, just three points off 2011, and he fell one bag short of my prediction with nine thefts. However, his HR total fell from 25 to 16, his RBI total from 92 to 68 and his SLG mark from .460 to .423.

Escobar hit .288-10-60-71 in 2008. In 2009 he went .299-14-76-89. In 2010 he dipped to .256-4-35-60. In 2011 he rebounded and hit .290-11-48-77. What did he do in 2012? Totally unexpected he reverted to his 2010 form with an awful season (.253-9-51-58).

Hit: Derek Jeter

Miss: Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond (#16)
I knew Diamond could be something, but I had no idea he would be an absolute monster as one of the elites at the position (.292-25-73-72-21).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 4, 2012

(1) Kris Medlen, best pitcher in baseball?

(2) Jacoby Ellsbury struggling to produce.

(3) Chase Headley – out of control. Just killing it.

(4) Marco Scutaro strong pickup for Giants.

(5) Chris Iannetta surging at the dish.

(6) Wil Myers Minor League Player of the Year. Not getting called up Royals?

(7) Troy Tulowitzki nearing a return from groin injury?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August21, 2012

(1) Athletics deal to add Stephen Drew. Can he prove his skills are intact?

(2) Sean Rodriguez sent to minors for Rays as Luke Scott is activated from DL.

(3) Alejandro De Aza sent to DL. Dewayne Wise to fill in.

(4) Brewers rotation about ready to get jumbled due to IP concerns and returning Shaun Marcum.

(5) Juan Pierre better than expected.

(6) Troy Tulowitzki still improving. Hopes to return in September.

(7) Eric Young Jr. to avoid the DL. Has been white hot at dish.
*** NOTE: The Rockies changed their minds and did end up placing Young on the DL after this video was recorded.

(8) Carl Crawford to have Tommy John surgery – season is over.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August15, 2012

(1) Lucas Harrell on terrific run for slumping Astros. Has anyone noticed? Check out his ownership rate over at Fleaflicker. Let’s jsut say it’s low.

(2) Nick Swisher performing like, Nick Swisher.

(3) Hiroki Kuroda getting it done for Yankees, big time.

(4) Josh Johnson sharp as ever of late.

(5) Troy Tulowitzki progressing.

(6) Michael Cuddyer (oblique) could return this week.

(7) Michael Young will continue to start over Mike Olt.

(8) Sample size and splits.

By Ray Flowers

2012 BaseballGuys.com Mid-Season Rankings

Back in late January the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide was offered to facilitate your quest to dominate the fantasy competition. A lot has changed since then though, an awful lot.

Carlos Santana has been a massive disappointment behind the dish.

Albert Pujols struggled mightily out of the gate.

Evan Longoria had multiple setbacks with a lower body injury.

Dustin Pedroia has been largely ineffective due to injury.

Troy Tulowitzki is on the shelf yet again.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp suffered significant injuries.

Roy Halladay was hurt.

Two-thirds of the bullpens in baseball have switched closers.

Obviously, a lot has changed since the 2012 season began.

Given those facts, I thought now would be a great time update my Player Rankings. Here’s what I’ve done.

I’ve ranked the top-40 players at the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.
I’ve ranked the top-100 outfielders.
I’ve ranked the top-150 starting pitchers.
I’ve ranked the top-75 relievers.

That’s 525 players ranked for the second half of the 2012 baseball season.

How do you get your copy of the5x5, mixed league rankings?

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $1.00 through Paypal, and The Mid-Season Rankings will be on their way to you within hours.

$1 folks – that’s it. That’s like going to iTunes and downloading a song.

It’s just that simple.

Donate to the BaseballGuys.com cause and I’ll send you an email with the PDF file containing the rankings.

There’s still time to win your fantasy baseball league this season, so let BaseballGuys.com help to guide you to that championship.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June20, 2012

(1) Troy Tulowitzki having more tests run. Is his season in doubt?

(2) Mark Trumbo mashing with the big boys. Can’t keep it up, can he?

(3) Barry Zito caving – what a shock.

(4) Should you be worried about Ryan Cook? Maybe?

(5) Aramis Ramirez, predictably, is heating up.

(6) Shaun Marcum says elbow is alright.

(7) Bullpen updates: Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz and John Axford struggling while Carlos Marmol’s arrow is going up.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May15, 2012

(1) Matt Kemp to DL.

(2) Christian Friedrich dominating.

(3) Troy Tulowitzki hurt.

(4) Nationals, Yankees, Mets having 9th inning issues.

(5) Dan Haren – buy low candidate?

(6) Jeff Neimann out with a broken leg.

By Ray Flowers