Who is #3?

Photo by Benjamin Kabek

There is pretty much a consensus this year that Albert Pujols should go off the board first overall, and Hanley Ramirez seems to be locked in as the #2 selection in most peoples minds. After that, let the games begin.

Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.

Some think it should be Troy Tulowitzki because of his massive production from a scarce position (shortstop). I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years.

Some say Carlos Gonzalez. The guy hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.

Some say Evan Longoria. I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think (not if guys like Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are still on the board after 125 names have been called out).

What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.

Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me.

I think the clear option at #3 overall is Ryan Braun, a guy who has an ADP of about nine. Here is my argument for why Braun should be #3 (in fact, I’ll go you one further and say that I think Carl Crawford should be taken  4th overall – see the Top-300 for 2011).

THE CASE FOR BRAUN

(1) Consistency
In four big league seasons, Braun has never hit less than .285.
He has never hit fewer than 25 homers.
He has never had fewer than 97 RBI.
He has never scored less than 91 runs.
He has never stolen less than 14 bases.

That means in four seasons in the majors Braun has never produced a batting line of less than .285-25-97-91-14. Last year there were only four men in all of baseball who hit all of the marks (Braun, Pujols, Votto and CarGo), and those are the four year lows for Braun.

(2) Across the Board production
I went through the numbers above but just so it registers like it should…

Over the past four years there have been only 16 seasons of .285-25-97-91-14. Braun has fully a quarter of them meaning every other player in baseball has a grand total of 12 such seasons, or on average just three a year. Moreover, only three other men in the game have had two such seasons the past four years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.

(3) Health
Braun played only 113 games as a rookie, but that was because he was called up during the season from the minors. The past three years he has dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises, but each of those years he has appeared in at least 151 games. The last three years only 12 players have appeared in at least 151 games each campaign. It doesn’t matter how great you are, if you aren’t on the field your overall production just won’t stack up the elites of the game.

(4) Upside
Braun has just under four full seasons in the big leagues and he is only 27 years old. I don’t buy into the “27 year old breakout” hype, but the fact is that Braun could easily still have more to give at the dish. That is particularly intriguing given that his best 5×5 numbers thus far would result in a 5×5 effort of .324-37-114-113-20. Do you know how many such seasons have been produced in the 20th century? The answer is none. Moreover, over the last twenty years those five marks have only been reached in one season on three occasions: Ellis Burks (1996), Larry Walker (1997) and Barry Bonds (1993).

You could raise arguments such as position scarcity and the fact that Braun has seen his ground ball rate rise substantially the past two years as reasons to pass on Braun at the number three overall spot, but to me it’s pretty clear that he would seem to have the least risk of any of the players who are consistently going in the top-10 after Pujols and Hanley are off the board. In my mind that is a huge factor that should be taken into consideration when you think about who you are going to take if you have the #3 spot on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo

I’m still hearing some snickers about my decision to roster Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki with the 7th overall selection in the FSTA Draft that was just held in Las Vegas (for a review of my squad click on the link to Vegas Baby, and the FSTA). I still think it was the right decision, so I thought I would lay out my thoughts on the matter to show why I shouldn’t be castigated by the masses for taken the speedster over the shortstop.

(1) Crawford is as consistent as any performer in the game. Not only is he consistent from year to year, his performance is elite. At Fanball there is a tool called the Player Rater which we use to rank players fantasy value in any given season. Here is a review of where Crawford ranked amongst hitters over the past seven years using the following parameters: a 12-team mixed league using standard 5×5 scoring with 14 hitters, nine pitchers and a $260 salary cap (based on a 67/33 split of spending on hitters and pitchers).

2004: 13th overall, $25.17
2005: 10th overall, $29.44
2006: 6th overall, $31.31
2007: 11th overall, $29.03
2008: 104th overall, $8.77 (he was limited to just 109 games played)
2009: 4th overall, $33.58
2010: 3rd overall, $37.86

You can click on the following link to find the actual Player Rater Tool.

Honestly, I almost feel like I can end the debate on who I should have taken 7th overall with just those numbers. It’s alright if you admit that you are shocked by those totals by the way. Since 2004, I defy you to find a more consistently excellent player than Crawford (other than Albert Pujols of course). In his last six healthy seasons, Crawford has been no worse than the 13th best offensive performer in the fantasy game. Moreover, if we remove his injury shortened 2008 effort we find that his average “finish” in his last six healthy seasons is 7.8. What pick did I take Crawford again? Oh yeah, #7.

(2) Crawford will be a part of an excellent offense in Boston. It’s not like Crawford’s teammates in Florida were terrible by any means, but the Red Sox work pitchers about as hard as any offense in baseball. Plus, Crawford should love slapping balls off the Green Monster which means we should set the floor at .300 for his average. After all, Fenway was the best park in the American League last year in terms of hitting doubles according to Bill James’ Park Indices (it was 22% above “average” in the category).

(3) Speed kills. Crawford is pretty much a mortal lock for 45 steals having hit that mark in each of the seven seasons in his career in which he played at least 140 games. If he can stay healthy you can book the steals. Unlike others who slap the ball around the field and run like the dickens (guys like Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis and Michael Bourn - the only men in the game who exceeded or matched Crawford’s steal total of 47 in 2010), Crawford also has some pop. He’s never hit 20 homers but he has averaged 15 homers a season his last five healthy years. Last year Pierre, Gardner, Davis and Bourn hit a combined 13 homers.

(4) I know Tulowitzki plays shortstop, and there is something to be said for position scarcity, but his track record isn’t enough to prove to me that he deserves to be a top-10 option – despite the generally prevailing wisdom that says he not only should be a top-10 guy but that he could even be a top-5 overall option. Consider the following points.

(A) Twice in the last three seasons Tulowitzki has failed to play even 125 games. Remember, only once in eight years has Crawford failed to appear in 140 games.

(B) As talented as Tulowitzki is, I worry a bit about his performance. The last two seasons Tulo has produced line drive rates of 18.4 and 15.0 percent. The big league average is about 19-20 percent. I’m not saying Tulowitzki won’t continue to hit around .300, but there aren’t many guys in the game that hit .300 with line drive rates that low.

(C) Tulo doesn’t strike out too much, his career K-rate is 19.1 percent, but he also doesn’t walk too much either (9.5 percent BB-rate). Again, this isn’t a condemnation of Tulo, but a 0.56 BB/K mark for his career isn’t terrific. A little more patience at the dish would serve him well.

(D) As great as Tulo was last year to end the season when he hit .323 with 18 homers and 61 RBI over his last 60 games, he was merely really good over his first 62 games (.306-9-34). Are you certain he isn’t the first half guy? There is nothing wrong with a .300-20-80 season from a shortstop, but you don’t draft a guy in the top-10 is those are the numbers you expect.

To me, the decision to take Crawford over Tulowitzki was a no brainer. You can talk position scarcity all you want with Tulo, and it is certainly a valid point, but I would counter that with Crawford’s consistently excellent stolen base marks. I’d also fall back on the main point I made at the start of this piece – Carl Crawford has been an elite performer in six of the past seven seasons, and when I say elite there is no hyperbole involved. Tulo may one day get to that level, but for now this battle royale between Crawford and Tulowitzki ends with CC scoring a knockout in the 7th round.

By Ray Flowers

Biding My Time

I’m sitting here staring out the window. We’re all kind of in no-man’s land right now. Playoff football is ongoing, but fantasy football is basically over for most people (those playoff leagues just don’t do it for me). I’m one of the few people who actually plays fantasy hockey, and likewise there is a small but dedicated group that plays fantasy basketball, but we are in the minority. So where does that leave most fantasy sports addicts? It leaves you begging for the fantasy baseball season to begin. It’s about a month until pitchers and catchers report, and February is usually when the heavy lifting really starts with fantasy baseball, though to be honest, I’ve literally been writing about the 2011 fantasy baseball season since October. I know, I have a disease don’t I?

I’ll also be attending the FSTA Trade Association meeting in Las Vegas this weekend, so if you’re gonna be there let me know and we’ll grab a beer (or a fruity drink with an umbrella in it).

PLAYER RATINGS

Over at ESPN they have a whole section devoted to different player rating systems: Inside Edge, The Baseball Encyclopedia, ESPN Rating and Elias. Here are a few things that jumped out at me from those rankings.

Miguel Cabrera was the top player in 2010 according to two of the systems (ESPN and Elias). The man widely regarded as the best player in baseball – Albert Pujols – was second on the ESPN scale and came in at 6th in the Elias Rankings.

According to Inside Edge, the best player in baseball last year was Josh Johnson. I don’t know what the formula is for this measure, but when your top-5 includes Johnson, Cliff Lee and Paul Konerko, consider me dubious as to it’s value.

The top-3 performers according to the Baseball Encyclopedia were Troy Tulowitzki, Pujols and Robinson Cano. How could a guy who appeared in only 122 games last season be the best player in baseball?

You can check out the rankings for yourself at the link above, but here is their top-10 based on the average ranking of the four systems:

1- Albert Pujols
2- Miguel Cabrera
3- Roy Halladay
4- Joey Votto
5- Felix Hernandez
6- Jose Bautista (seriously)
7- Paul Konerko (gulp)
8- Ubaldo Jimenez
9- Adam Wainwright
10- Josh Hamilton

PLAYER PROFILE – LANCE BERKMAN

I wrote about the new Cardinals outfielder in Breaking Down: Lance Berkman. Here is a brief synopsis of what I said there.

“Currently sporting an ADP in the 300′s, it would seem that Berkman is in a good position to far surpass the value he is currently being assigned. It would be wise to avoid expecting a return to the salad days for Berkman, but if he slips far enough in drafts he is well worth taking a shot on as a mutli-position guy who will hit behind, arguably, the two best right-handed hitters in the National League.”

PAVANO STAYS WITH TWINS
After flirting with signing a big money, 1-year deal with the Yankees (how desperate are the Bronx Bombers when you realize they contemplated bringing back a guy who won nine games over four years with the club back in 2005-08?), Pavano decided he liked where he was signing a 2-year, $16.5 million deal to remain with the Twins. I predicted back on December 6th, 2010 that Pavano would hit it big as the second best starting pitcher on the market in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010. I missed on that one. I’m surprised that in this market, where middle relievers were getting 3-year deals at more than $4 million a season, that Pavano was only able to lock down a two year deal.

JUST BECAUSE…

One of the greatest set of lines in movie history thanks to Ron Burgundy.

By Ray Flowers

Decisions Contemplated and Made

Why can’t one of the leagues all-time great sluggers find a job, and have the Rockies pulled the string on a series of moves that will preclude the club from being a contender for the next decade?

The Plight of Jim Thome

Jim Thome is a masher of historic proportions. He has 589 homers, the 8th most in big league history, and though he hit “only” 25 homers last season that was in a mere 276 at-bats. Given that pace, if he had come to the plate for 500 at-bats he would have hit 45 homers. Clearly the old man, he’s 39, can still mash it. Thome was exceptionally effective against righties last season hitting .302 with 19 homers and a 1.154 OPS in just 189 at-bats, a pace of 50 homers per 500 at-bats. Honestly, he was every bit the equal of Albert Pujols and last season when facing righties.

So where does all that leave him for 2011? It leaves him unemployed. The Twins remain interested in bringing back the slugger, but Thome is looking for one last substantial paycheck after playing last season for $1.7 million. He won’t be giving the Twins a hometown discount to return. This has left the door open for someone to capitalize, and it looks like the Rangers have come out guns a blazin’. I have a hard time figuring out where the at-bats would come from though. Here is what I see.

The addition of Adrian Beltre to play third base moves Michael Young to DH. Young could find at-bats literally at every position on the infield (including first base), but for now Young is slotted as the primary DH. That leaves first base in the hands of Mitch Moreland, and with rumors floating around that the Rangers wouldn’t include him in a deal to get Matt Garza, I would be hard pressed to think they really want to platoon Moreland in 2011 even if he did struggle in limited work against lefties last year (.200 in 20 ABs). And you can forget about David Murphy getting 400 at-bats unless someone is hurt. The Rangers seemingly don’t have a spot in the every day lineup for Thome – though that doesn’t mean he couldn’t match last years total with the Twins of 276 at-bats. What I do know is that if he is added to the club, the Rangers would be forced to move people around a lot, and that isn’t an ideal situation for a team with championship aspirations. Having that flexibility with positions is wonderful, but players like to find their comfort zones and really don’t want to be in and out of the lineup, using a different glove, every day.

Have the Rockies Been Financially Wise?

I don’t often spend time talking about baseball and money, though I did last month in The End of Baseball? I’m not going to bash the Yankees and the Red Sox today (for a change). Instead, I want to touch on the business model that the Rockies are currently operating under.

The Rockies have signed the two cornerstone’s of their franchise to deals worth more than $214 million as Troy Tulowitzki signed a 7-year, $134.5 million contract extension while Carlos Gonzalez re-upped for 7-years and $80 million. That is a whopping amount of cash which raises the very real possibility that the Rockies may not be able to put forth a contender for the next decade.

Last year the Rockies spent $84 million on their payroll. Though it will take a few years for the massive dollars of Tulo and CarGo to really kick in, the duo will be paid about $30 million a year over the life of their contracts. That number rises even further as the deals reach the later years as they will make $36 million in 2015, $37 million in 2016 and $40 million in 2017. Even if the club raises the payroll to $100 million in three to five years as expected, their duo will be sucking up nearly 40 percent of the payroll. To draw a parallel, the Yankees would have had to of spent $83 million on Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia to have devoted 40 percent of their team salary to two guys in 2010 (they actually made about $57 million). The bottom line is that you simply cannot have 40 percent of your payroll invested in just two players – it just doesn’t work. If either player is injured, or fails to perform like they did in 2010, the Rockies will be sunk. The reason is that so much of their resources are tied up in two players that they will be unable to substantially increase their payroll if they have other holes to fill on the roster. Will they be able to sign that veteran backup for $4 million, or will they have to go with the $500,000 youngster with only 112 big league at-bats? Will they be able to bring in a setup man of note if they have only $900,000 to spend on a bullpen arm? Of course they wont.

I wish the Rockies all the luck in the world. Denver is a magnificent town, that ballpark is a jewel, and it seems like Tulo and Gonzalez both have a shot to be All-Star’s for the duration of their deals. Still, for a team that will never be able to financially compete with the big boys I think this was a move that they may end up regretting. Take it from a San Francisco Giants’ fan that watched his team, for years, be hamstring by the contract of superstar Barry Bonds – one major contract can be tough to overcome when you don’t have endless resources, let alone two.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

First Round, 2011

It’s months away, and you’re likely either (a) intensely watching the playoffs, (b) knee deep in fantasy football or (C) all excited about fantasy hockey or basketball, but it’s never too early to look ahead. So, and I’m sure this list will change innumerable times before the actual 2011 drafting season is upon us, in honor of my Review: First Round, 2010 article in which I looked back at the top-15 choices in a National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft from the just completed season, here is my early projection of what the first round of a 2011 draft might look like.

15- Alex Rodriguez
He’s hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI in each of the past 13 seasons, and that is the longest streak in MLB history. He’s the Yankee I think will go in the first round over Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira.

14- Evan Longoria
Entering his fourth season, his career bests in the 5×5 categories would result in a .294-33-113-100-15 line.

13- David Wright
Rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to go .283-29-103-87-19. Wright has hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals in five of the last six years.

12- Josh Hamilton
I wouldn’t take him this early, he’s still a big health risk in my eyes, but he did lead baseball with a .359 average, and he has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI in two of the past three seasons.

11- Chase Utley
An injury limited him to 115 games, but there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to go .285-25-90-100-15 yet again in 2011.

10- Adam Wainwright
Over the past two years Wainwright has 39 victories (2nd in baseball), a 2.53 ERA (2nd), 425 Ks (7th), 3.48 K/BB (10th) and 463.1 IP (6th).

9- Roy Halladay
Lets look at Halladay’s numbers the past two years – 38 wins (3rd), 2.61 ERA (3rd), 427 Ks (6th), 6.57 K/BB (1st) and 489.2 IP (1st). Barely a difference between him and Wainwright.

8- Troy Tulowitzki
He appeared in only 60 games in the second half but still hit .323 with 18 homers, 61 RBI an a 1.020 OPS. Dude is a star.

7- Joey Votto
The likely NL MVP was second in the NL in batting average (.324), third in homers (37), third in RBI (113) and first in OPS (1.024).

6- Miguel Cabrera
His numbers are a near carbon copy of Votto’s (.328-38-126 with a 1.042 OPS) though Miggy gets the nod as the higher selection because he has done it for longer. Amazingly, Cabrera is only five months older.

5- Carlos Gonzalez
He was flipping amazing in ’10 (.336-34-117-111-26), but he must learn how to hit on the road (.289-8-41 with a .775 OPS).

4- Carl Crawford
If we remove the 2008 season, CC has gone at least .301-11-68-89-46 in each of the past five seasons.

3- Hanley Ramirez
He disappointed some after a monstrous 2009 (.342-24-106-101-27) as he produced a 5×5 line of “only” .300-21-76-92-32.

2- Ryan Braun
I’ve got the sneaking suspicion that we haven’t seen the best from him yet, and that is saying something when you consider that his 162 game average is .307-36-118-111-18.

1- Albert Pujols
Until someone dethrones the king, he remains my choice as the top selection. There isn’t a more consistently excellent option in the game – period.

By Ray Flowers

Who is the NL MVP?

I don’t care if a guys team went 90-72 or 75-87. To me, a teams’ record has no bearing on whether or not a player should, or shouldn’t, win the MVP award. The best player in the league should win the ward. In addition, no pitcher should ever win the award. Pitchers have the Cy Young Award, players have the MVP.

In what follows I will begin to run through of the awards and who I think should win them in the NL and AL. Will we agree all the way through? No doubt we won’t, but that doesn’t lesson the fun that the debate engenders.

These are the top-5 options, in my mind, for the NL award. Let me briefly run through the candidacy of each.

Ryan Braun: The modern day Hebrew Hammer, Braun had a bit of a down season with a career worst 25 homers (he’d never been under 32 before). His RBI mark of 103 was also a 3-year low, and though he stole 14 bags, that tied for his career worst mark. Oh, and his OPS of .866 was well below the .918 career mark. It’s pretty tough to think that a guy who failed to live up to his previous level of production would be rewarded by MVP voters in ’10, but that doesn’t change the fact that Braun was again great.

Carlos Gonzalez: The best combo of power and speed on the list, CarGo is the only man who went 20/20, and he actually went 25/25. He actually socked 34 homers and stole 26 bases, while leading the NL in batting average at .336. He was also one RBI off the NL lead in RBI (117) and he and Pujols were the only two players to have 110 RBI and 110 runs (CarGo had 111 runs). However, Gonzalez has one massive negative on his ledger – he was merely a major league average hitter on the road (.289-8-41-41-16 in 71 games). As great as his numbers were, and they were spectacular, it appeared to have been solely a function of hitting in Colorado half the time (.380-26-76-70-10).

Albert Pujols: For the first time Pujols led the league in RBI (118) while he repeated as the homer champ (42). Pujols also paced the senior circuit with 115 runs scored, hit .312 (12th), and had a 1.011 OPS that was fourth. The numbers were once again stupendous, but will Pujols lose some votes this season because of the fact that, despite his otherworldly studliness, his production this season (.312-42-118-115-14) was really no different than his career pace per campaign (.331-41-123-119-8)?

Troy Tulowitzki: You often win MVP’s because of your late season work, and no one was more impressive in that regard than Troy Tulowitzki who had a historic finish to a great season (.315-27-95-89-11). Tulo hit .323 with 18 homers and 61 RBI over his last 60 games, but even those numbers pale in comparison to what he offered over his last 30 games during which time he hit .303 with 15 homers and 40 RBI. He ended the year leading all big league shortstops in homers, RBI and batting average, and his total of 89 runs was fourth. He only appeared in 122 games though, and he also will lose some votes to CarGo who was a great foil.

Joey Votto: He led the group of players in OPS (1.024 – the best in the NL), and he also led the group with a .424 OBP (another league best) and a .600 SLG. Votto also blasted 37 homers leading to 113 RBI and 106 runs, while hitting a robust .324 with 16 thefts. Votto’s team also made the playoffs, and some will undoubtedly view that fact as the deciding factor when placing their vote.

Some more numbers.

Braun: .866 OPS, 112 RC, 31 RCAA
CarGo: .974 OPS, 132 RC, 44 RCAA
Pujols: 1.011 OPS, 142 RC, 66 RCAA
T. Tulo: .949 OPS, 98 RC, 25 RCAA
J. Votto: 1.024 OPS, 144 RC, 74 RCAA

Braun and Tulowitzki clearly fall behind the other three, and they can be removed from the discussion.

Gonzalez has the worst OPS, lowest RC and RCAA of the final three, and again, he just didn’t do anything on the road.

That leaves Votto and Pujols. Given that Votto slightly edged Pujols in AVG/OBP/SLG and RCAA, I’m gonna give he award to Votto by the slightest of margins.

5- Troy Tulowitzki
4- Ryan Braun
3- Carlos Gonzalez
2- Albert Pujols
1- Joey Votto

By Ray Flowers

Early Award Returns

I’ll certainly go into much greater depth on all of the major baseball awards between now and the time that the season is completed, but I just wanted to give a few thoughts on the races at this point as the season marches, inexorably, toward the conclusion of the regular season (go Giants).

AL MVP

Main Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko
Hamilton will lead baseball in batting average (.361), and he is hopeful of a return to action from his rib issue on Friday. Still, the guy has appeared in only two games in September and just 130 on the season. Is that really an MVP worthy campaign? There has only been one MVP who appeared in fewer than 15 September games in a non-strike season, and that was Dick Groat of the Pirates in 1960. I know it would make a great story, but I can’t give a thumbs up to a guy who didn’t do a damn thing in the seasons most important month.

NL MVP

Main Candidates: Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto
CarGo and Tulo will likely cancel each other out. The anti-Hamilton, look at their numbers in September: Gonzalez (.412-5-26-24 with a 1.131 OPS), Tulowitzki (.299-15-40 with a 1.148 OPS). If that means the decision is left to Pujols and Votto you have to think the fact that Votto’s Reds are playoff bound will tip the scales in his favor in the eyes of most voters since Votto and Pujols have had nearly identical numbers this season: Votto (.325-37-111-104-16 with a 1.029 OPS), Pujols (.313-42-117-113-13 with a 1.015 OPS). Will Pujols’ history win out over Votto’s winning record?

AL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price, CC Sabathia
The best pitcher in the AL has been Felix Hernandez, though he is a mere 13-12 because of brutal run support (the Mariners scored seven runs while he was in the game in his 12 loses). Hernandez leads the league in ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), innings pitched (249.2), quality starts (30) and he is second in WHIP at 1.06 (Cliff Lee has a 1.02 mark). Still, no starting pitcher, in a non-strike season, has ever won the award with fewer than the 15 victories that Tim Lincecum posted last season.

NL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright
Hudson ha lost four of five decisions as his ERA has gone from 2.24 to 2.76. Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break but only 4-7 since. Johnson leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA but he pitched only 183.2 innings and won just 11 games. That leaves Halladay and Wainwright to finish 1-2, with Halladay likely to win the award despite nearly identical totals: Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP), Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson
Feliz was left in the bullpen when the club realized it had a hole there (he was slated to spend at least some time in the rotation), and all Feliz has done is have the best closing season by a rookie in league history with a record 38 saves in just 41 chances. He’s also posted a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings.
Jackson has played strong defense in center field while at the same time scoring a ton of runs (102). He’s also hit nearly .300 at .299, while adding 26 steals. Do you favor pitching or hitting?

NL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Jamie Garcia, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez
One of the strongest rookie classes in recent memory. As much as people seem to want to hand the award to Heyward, there are a couple of salient points that Heyward apologists have to deal with. (1) Sanchez has one more homer with 19, while he has knocked in 12 more runs (83) then Heyward. Heck, Sanchez is only batting .003 points lower at .276. How many people think Sanchez should win the award? That’s exactly why Heyward’s candidacy isn’t as strong as some profess. (2) Buster Posey has only two fewer homers and seven less RBI than Heyward despite appearing in 35 fewer games. Posey also has a .020 point lead in OPS, and he is a catcher. I’m admittedly biased as a Giants fan, but I just don’t get all this Heyward talk.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

Three’s are nice. There is the Holy Trinity, the outs in a half inning, or the fact that three is a pleasing number for the eye to see in a painting. Building on that theme, I will break down three of the best hitters in baseball in what follows.

Troy Tulowitzki has been on fire, an if you weren’t aware of that you must be wearing your football jersey around each day paying no attention to the diamond. Tulo is hitting .351 over his lst 43 games, and over his last 48 games he has a 1.108 OPS. Those numbers are massive (duh). He also has 14 homers and 34 RBI, not to mention 24 runs scored in 18 September games. On the year he is up to .325-26-89-83-10, a fantastic top-20 effort that you can read about in this week’s MLB Player Rater piece. If he were to keep that level of production up over 550 at-bats – he had 543 last season but has just 422 this season – his effort would lead to a .325-34-116-108-13 season. Do you know how many shorstops seasons have ever been produced of .320-30-115-105-10? Try two. Once by Nomar Garciaparra (.323-35-122-111-12 in 1998) and once by Alex Rodriguez (.358-36-123-141-15 in 1996). Yes, Tulo has been balling.

Jack Bauer, I mean Joe Mauer (sorry my love of 24 shone through there), is currently on the shelf with a sore left knee. An MRI showed that there was only inflammation going on with his wheel, but he still might miss a few days. On the year he is hitting a superb .331. If he keeps his average up over .325 he will have his fourth season of .325+ (minimum 502 plate appearances), and that would tie Mickey Cochrane‘s all-time record for backstops. Mauer’s .408 career OBP is also second all-time (minimum 3,000 plate appearances), for a catcher behind Cochrane’s .419 mark. As for Mauer’s power, its been MIA just like I said it would about a million times this year (you can read about it in my MLB Predictions – Hitters piece). I said Mauer would never hit 30 homers, and in fact, “…it strains credulity to think that Mauer will once again be able to double his previously established level.” Mauer has nine homers, which if you remove his 28 homer outburst last season, would fit in quite nicely with his other seasons of six, nine, thirteen, seven and nine.

Joey Votto was scratched from the Reds lineup on Tuesday because of a sinus infection (he’s day-to-day like the rest of us). He is third in the NL in average (.323), third in homers (35), second in RBI (106), first in OBP (.423), second in SLG (.597) and first in OPS (1.020) in the NL.Toss in 100 runs and 15 steals, and Votto has been an absolute fantasy revalation. He has also been a beast in terms of his consistency with virutally identical production in each of the seasons two parts.

Pre All-Star break: .314/.422/.589
Post All-Star break: .336/.424/.608

He may or may not win the NL MVP award, but if he doesn’t finishin the top-3 you can conisder the election of the winner a total farce.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 27, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg scratched from start.

(2) Dan Haren (forearm) checks out OK.

(3) Huston Street injured in BP – scary situation.

(4) Adam Dunn and Nationals at standstill in contract talks?

(5) Gil Meche has shoulder surgery, done for year.

(6) Jason Bay suffering from concussion.

(7) Troy Tulowitzki returns to action.

(8) Nate McLouth sent to minors.

By Ray Flowers