Player Profile: Francisco Liriano

Oh how I wish my left-handed father had pushed me to be left-handed as a child. Take the case of Francisco Liriano who was at one time one of the best hurlers in the game (his 2006 season is one of legend as he had a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.71 K/s per nine, a 4.50 K/BB ratio an a 12-3 record before blowing his arm out). Despite his talent, the road has been extremely bumpy the last few years for Mr. Liriano. There have been periods when he has locked things in, but the majority of the last few years has been spent with middling production being par for the course. I mean, what would you think about the following player if you didn’t have a name associated with it and just looked at the numbers?

Career: 53-54, 4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.38 K/BB

I know what I would think, and it’s not kind. Since 2005 when Liriano began his career here are the numbers of the average AL hurler: .500 winning percentage, 4.26 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.15 K/BB. Those numbers paint Liriano as a league average arm. The numbers worsen, substantially, the past two years as Liriano has gone 15-22 with a 5.23 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 1.72 K/BB ratio. Given the dearth of effective production on the hill, especially over the course of the past couple of years, is there any reason to expect Liriano to be worth starting on a consistent basis in 2013?

Long a strikeout arm, Liriano has two issues working somewhat against him. First, his velocity is down two mph from his heyday of 95 mph (on the plus side he did add over a mph to his heater in 2012 when compared to 2011). The second issue is that his velocity on his slider is down two mph. This was the pitch that made him, like Steve Carlton in his salad days, nearly untouchable when he was on. The pitch is still effective but it lacks that extra giddy up that made it such a dominating pitch a few years back. There are still days when it all comes together for Liriano, it happens every year (he struck out 25 batters in back-to-back starts in July), but for the most part he’s just not as effective because, chiefly, his stuff isn’t quite as good.

This loss of stuff is normal for all hurlers as they age. Usually, if a guy is an elite talent, they learn how to work around this. Maybe they add another pitch. Maybe they study game film more closely. Maybe they change up the patterns they use to attack batters. In the case of Liriano maybe he studies more and maybe he changes up his patterns, but he is still a predominantly two pitch hurler who will also throw the change up to keep batters off balance. His 2012 usage (50 percent fastball, 33 percent slider, 17 percent change up) is virtually identical to his career marks (51/31/18). The biggest issue probably isn’t a lack of growth with this lefty, it’s been an inability to consistently locate his pitches.

From 2005-10 Liriano walked an average of 3.18 batters per nine innings, a tenth better the AL average during that time. The last two years he’s nearly added two full batters to that mark walking 5.01 batters per nine innings. I could have honestly started and ended this profile with just this number (the amount of pitches he throws inside the strike zone has dipped from 55 percent in 2006 down to 39 percent last year). There is no way a pitcher can be consistently effective if they have an BB/9 mark over five. It just can’t be done (hell, even Mr. Walk, Nolan Ryan, walked 4.67 batters per nine innings). This lack of control does a couple of things. One, Liriano’s WHIP goes up and obviously that leads to an increase in his ERA. Two, his lack of control emboldens batters to spit on his off-speed stuff. Third, it means he’s often forced to pitch to batters behind in the count which means he has to ‘give in’ to the strike zone more than he should – if he can control the pitches. Given all of that, it’s rather amazing to think that he still struck out over a batter per inning in 2012. Moreover, he’s struck out 8.63 batters the past two seasons, not that far off his career 9.06 mark, so it’s clear that when he’s dialed in and gets ahead in the count he can still put batters away.

So what to do with Liriano? Take a shot. He’s still got a pretty impressive arm, even if he doesn’t spin pitches like he did years ago. He’s still more than capable of dominating any lineup on any day, but there is significant downside here. Don’t forget this guy has had an ERA in the 5′s an a WHIP over 1.45 in three of the past four seasons. It doesn’t matter how many punchouts you get with numbers like that. He’s worth a few bucks in mixed leagues, or a reserve round add in snake drafts, but you cannot make him a foundational block for your pitching staff unless your goal is to allow someone else to win the league.

NOTE: Liriano agreed to a 2-year deal reportedly worth $14 million to pitch for the. That’s a solid place to pitch, there’s no pressure there, an a move to the NL all signal that the arrow is pointing up with Liriano.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Denard Span

The Nationals got their man, Denard Span, to play centerfield for them for the foreseeable future. The Nats picked up Span in exchange for 6’9” righty Alex Meyer who was taken 23rd overall in 2011. He had an ERA under three and more than a K per inning at a couple of stops at A-Ball last season, and he profiles as the type of pitcher who could one day be a top of the rotation force some day. For now though, it’s the Nats who get the playable big league piece in Span, and the one that has some price certainty locked in as well (he makes $4.75 million in ’13, $6.5 in ’14 and has a team option for $9 million for ’15). This move solidifies the Nationals outfield – Span will be flanked by Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth – while opening up the question of whether or not this move ends the run of Adam LaRoche in D.C. (LaRoche is a free agent whereas the club has Mike Morse under contract, and he can obviously take over at first base full-time with no issue). With that background, let’s get down to breaking down the prospects of Span.

Span has hit .284 during his big league career, though it should be noted that he hasn’t reached that mark the past three seasons (he hit .294 and .311 his first two years). Span slipped to .264 in his third season, and he matched that total again in 2011 as injuries limited him to 70 games. He rebounded last year to hit .283, to it’s pretty safe to assume he’s a .280+ hitter especially when you consider that his career line drive rate (20.4 percent) and BABIP (.320) suggest that is also a reasonable projections. Unfortunately that average comes with no power whatsoever. Span has hit a total of 23 homers in his career, has failed to post a SLG of .400 the past three years, and owns a 2.08 career GB/FB ratio. Given his skill set that is certainly playing to his talents, so while we down his fantasy value for it, that’s the way he will be a successful big league hitter.

Span knows to beat the ball into the ground and run really fast, and he does that well. Once he gets on base, he’s no afraid to use those wheels to steal a bag. A 2-time 20 steal man, he also has seasons of 18 and 17 thefts, and per 150 games he averages 23 steals. He may not be a burner, but you can expect him to push at least 20 thefts in his new home in Washington, especially if he returns to getting on base as he did early in his career. Why do I say that? The first two years that Span played his OBP was .390, an excellent number. The past three years that number has fallen to a barely better than league average .334. What if we split the difference and say that he is a .357 type of guy since that just so happens to be his career average? I’d be OK with that as the target number.

So we have a guy who produces a solid average, gets on base, steals a few bags, an isn’t shy about scoring runs. In two of the three seasons in which he has 500 at-bats he has scored at least 85 runs (71, 85 and 97), and per 150 games his average would lead to 92 runs scored. So let’s play this out. If Span hits .284 with 92 runs scored and 23 steals in 2013, could you live with five homers and 45 RBIs if he was your 5th outfielder, right? I think most people could.

Now I’ve mentioned 150 games played a couple of times, and that may be the key with Span. Only once has he appeared in 150 games, and over the last four years his average season has led to 124 games played, and that’s just not going to cut it. Span missed time last year due to a concussion, right collarbone issues, shoulder issues and hamstring soreness. Give his game, he needs to be in the lineup on a daily basis or his fantasy valued is further curtailed. With an average of just 99 games played the last two years, even if you are a Nationals fan, you should be able to stop yourself from buying too much into the hype with Span once we get closer to draft time.

Denard Span is a terrific baseball player. At the same time, he’s a minor player in mixed leagues because he doesn’t have an outstanding skill that equates to fantasy greatness. I’m not saying that he isn’t a player you can have on a championship team, if he’s your 5th outfielder you are in good shape, but realize that there just isn’t enough to hang your hat on with Span in terms of him being a beacon of greatness for a fantasy club.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Scott Diamond

Doesn’t it seem like every pitcher on the Minnesota Twins gets batters out while never walking anyone? Now it also seems like the majority of them rarely strike batters out either, but the club still must be patted on the back for the fact that they just keep rolling arms out there, year after year, that get outs despite less than intimidating stuff. One of those arms belongs to Scott Diamond who, in his first full season in the big leagues, won 12 games over 174 innings for the Twinkies. Let’s profile the lefty from Guelph, Ontario (you might notice a fair amount of similarity in what follows to the recent Player Profile of Ross Detwiler).

Diamond started out rolling like a baller – he was Marlon Brando – with a 2.27 ERA through his first five starts, and he hit the All-Star Break with a 7-3 record, 2.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Unfortunately things started to even out in the second half as his record fell to 5-6 while his ratios jumped (4.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) when he turned into Danny DeVito. Overall Diamond went 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his 27 starts as he bettered Max Scherzer in ERA (3.74) and Jeremy Hellickson in WHIP (1.25). Despite those overall solid numbers, I’m not sold that this is someone you should be dreaming about drafting in 2013. If I had concerns about Detwiler, and you can read about those in the link above, I have even graver concerns about Diamond. Point by point.

(1) Diamond has no idea what a strikeout is. Last year he was able to convince 4.68 batters per nine innings to strike out. That’s only three batters below the league average.

(2) He walked a mere 31 batters on the year leading to a 1.61 BB/9 mark. He’s always been able to keep the walks down but he never had a single minor league stop with a number that low, and his career number in 600 minor league innings is 2.84. We therefore have to expect that number to rise in 2013.

(3) His line drive rate of 21 percent was higher than the league average (19 percent).

(4) His HR/F ratio of 11.4 was higher than than league average (9 percent).

(5) His BABIP was .292, right on the league average.

Nothing in any of that says ‘this is a guy I have to have on my fantasy squad.’

So how did he have success? Much like Detwiler, Diamond is able to induce a boatload of grounders. Diamond’s 53.4 percent ground ball rate was the 4th best in the AL, and we know how guys that induce grounders with abandon can have long and successful careers (think Derek Lowe). However, it’s the only trait that he possesses that speaks to him being anything other than a borderline league average hurler. When everything goes right, as it did in 2012, then guys like Diamond can have a lot of success. When it goes wrong though, you end up with a Rick Porcello type effort (4.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and just 107 Ks in 176.1 IP). And that’s the obvious rub with Diamond. If he can’t rediscover the two strikeouts per nine innings that he left in the minors when he joined the Twins he’s just not going to be someone who is consistent enough to be a weekly starter in the fantasy game. When ground ballers are on, they can dominate for months at a time. When that balls leaks up over the plate, they get beaten back to the Middle Ages.

Could Diamond repeat his 2012 effort in 2013? Sure he could. Would I bet money that he would? No I would not. Would I draft him in a mixed league? No I would not. Would I target him in an AL-only league? Again, I would not. Diamond is one of those arms that is best left for the real world versus being someone you would be interested in building a staff around in the fantasy game.

NOTE: Former Twins’ right hander Scott Baker is no longer in the fold after signing a 1-year, $5.5 million deal to join the Cubs. Coming back from Tommy John Surgery, the 31 year old isn’t likely to be ready by Opening Day, but he should be healthy enough to take the ball every five days for the Cubs early in the year.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Justin Morneau

Two peas in a pod. That’s how I look at Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales (I reviewed Morales yesterday in this Player Profile). Both are AL first baseman with power and run producing skills who haven’t been able to consistently stay on the field of late. Both stayed relatively healthy in 2012, and both failed to live up to their previous levels of production. What should we be expecting from Justin when the Twins take the field in 2013?

From 2006-2009, Morneau drove in at least 100 runs, while scoring 84 times, in each of the four seasons. He also had an epic 2006 effort that resulted in the AL MVP award ending up on his fireplace mantle (.321-34-130-97). He took his game to an even higher level in 2010 as reached the midpoint of the season, 81 games played, hitting .345 with 18 homers, 56 RBIs, 53 runs scored an a 1.055 OPS. Since then, it’s been mostly a downhill tumble.

Morneau ended up being saddled by a significant concussion and missed the second half of 2010. In 2011 he missed games due to the flu, a wrist issue, a bruised foot, a shoulder injury and had a neck situation that required surgery. As a result he appeared in a total of 69 games in 2011 giving him a total of 150 games played in two seasons (from 2006-09 he appeared in 155 or more games three times), an as a results you could add Morneau for nothing on draft day 2012 (I had him ranked 25th at the first base position in my annual Draft Guide). He started off slowly hitting .230 in April and entered the break batting .246, but he was able to hit .289 over his last 69 games to help to bring up his numbers to a respectable though depressed level from his previous efforts as he had a fantasy line of .267-19-77-63 in 505 at-bats. Let’s break down that level in some detail.

Morneau’s plate discipline has suffered the last two years, largely because he has stopped taking the walk (possibly because pitchers are challenging him more having less fear of his once lethal bat – more on that below). After 3-straight seasons with a BB/K ratio of 0.81 or better, that mark has failed to reach 0.50 the last two seasons.

Morneau has hit a total of 23 homers over his last 203 games and 41 over his last 284. That’s a homer rate of one per 6.93 games the last three years compared to one per 5.64 games over his career. One of the main reasons for this fall has been a relative inability of Justin to effectively lift the ball as he once did. Give all the issues he has dealt with, and they have obviously been considerable, it’s fair to wonder if he still retains all the physical gifts that made him an impressive home run force. For the course of his career Morneau owns a 14.1 percent HR/F ratio. If we add together his marks from the last two seasons we get 16.4 percent. His 12.5 percent rate in 2012 is certainly not that far out of whack that it’s all doom and gloom, but I’ve got a number that causes some serious trepidation. In 2012 Morneau hit fewer fly balls than in any season save his 40 game effort in 2003. From 2009-11 his fly ball mark was 42.9, 44.9 and 46.4 percent. In 2012 that number dipped to 36.8 percent. This number could certianly be a one year outlier for a player that was playing hurt and trying to find his stroke after so much missed time, or it could be a harbinger of things to come.

It should also be noted that teams attacked Morneau differently last season. He faced curveballs on 15 percent of the pitches, a career-high total and 50 percent greater than his 10 percent career mark. Teams also threw him fewer change up than ever before at 9.4 percent of the pitches (12.3 percent for his career). Did they notice something in his swing that wasn’t previously there? It certainly seems like a plausible explanation.

I don’t doubt that Morneau could show improvement upon his 2012 levels of production. However, I have to point out that he hasn’t played 140 games since 2008, that he will be 32 next May, and that all the injuries that he has dealt with the past three years most likely have sapped him of the excellence he once possessed. Given all of that, Morneau isn’t anywhere near a top-10 option for first basemen in 2013. He’s much more likely to fill a corner infield position with aplomb in mixed leagues so draft him accordingly.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Willingham

Were you aware that Josh Willingham led the Athletics in homers (29) and RBI (98) in 2011? Or how about this. Willingham hit more homers than Carlos Gonzalez (26) and had more RBI than Hunter Pence (97) in 2011. Not bad you say? That’s a good way to describe Willingham – he’s not a difference maker, but as a depth bat, ideally he’d be a six place hitter on a championship level team, he’s not bad at all. Well, the Twins decided that Willingham was the bat for them as they agreed to a 3-year deal for $21 million so that he could be their right-handed power behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (Michael Cuddyer, a player you can read about in this Player Profile, was that right-handed bat the last few years but he’s now a Colorado Rockie). Did they make a wise choice?

The issue with Willingham is always the same, it’s his track record of back woes and ill health. In 2006-07 Willingham appeared in 142 and 144 games, but since that time he’s never been back to that level and, moreover, he’s averaged just 121 games the past four years. It’s tough for a guy to be one of the centerpiece weapons of your club if he misses one of every four games. As a result of all the missed games, Josh has hit 20 homers in only two of the last four years. However, since the start of the 2006 season he has averaged 22 homers a year or 25 homers per 500 at-bats. What he did last season, spending half his games in a ballpark in Oakland that doesn’t do hitters any homer favors, was an impressive feat (he hit 15 of his homers at home in 2011). I’ll say this though. He’s unlikely to hit 30 homers in a season unless he does get 500 at-bats because his HR/F ratio for his career is solid at 14.5 percent but far from imposing (it also doesn’t help much to learn that Target Field had mere the 8th best Park Indices for an AL park for homers by right-handed batters).

As for his batting average, that isn’t likely to improve much, especially if he repeats what he did last year. Did he expand his strike zone and start swinging for homers? It seems that way. After posting a BB/K mark of at least 0.50 in 5-straight years that number fell to a career worst 0.37 last year. That’s not a number that speaks to a strong the potential of posting a solid batting average. It’s also unlikely that he will hit much better than his .262 career rate for two main reasons. (1) He strikes out too much with over 20 percent of his at-bats resulting in a walk back to the dugout. (2) Just look at the back of his ball card. He hasn’t hit better than .268 in five years.

Willingham has a nice power bat but there are also plenty of concerns about his inability to remain on the field (again, he’s averaged less than 125 games a season the past four years). Willingham also is a rather average outfielder who is already 33 years old. Adding that up it’s probably not a great bet to lay down that he will repeat his 2011 numbers in 2012. It’s certainly possible, but there are enough concerns here that Willingham makes a much more attractive addition in a single league than in a mixed league setup for 2012. Still, Willingham is one of those guys you can add in mixed leagues as your 4th or 5th outfielder if you are comfortable with assuming the risk. If he reaches expectations you will be fine with what he gives you, but if he fails to deliver you can always go to the waiver-wire and pick up a guy like Ryan Ludwick or Garret Jones to help out your squad in the power department.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 6th, 2011

Things are really heating up at the Winter Meetings, and it appears that the Marlins are plenty serious about being the story to emerge from the festivities. But before I get to that, we had a couple of deals take place in the last 24 hours as pitchers are the target of seemingly every team.

Sergio Santos was an excellent bullpen arm for the White Sox last year. After every other White Sox bullpen arm was seemingly given a shot to handle 9th ining duties, Santos stepped up and solidified the role on his way to 30 saves in 36 chances. He walks too many batters, 4.12 per nine innings last year, but it’s easy to forgive that when you look over at the K/9 column and see 13.07. Santos signed a deal with the White Sox that will pay him only $8.25 million the next three years, though there are three other team options after that for $6 million, $8 million and $8.75 million (basically his team has him under control for 6-years at a cost of about $31 million). That “cheap” cost made him an excellent option to deal for the White Sox, and they did just that Tuesday sending him to the Blue Jays for minor leaguer Nestor Molina (there is no truth to the rumor that he is related to Nestor The Long Eared Christmas Donkey). White Sox fans will be furious at this deal since Molina is likely a couple of years away from being a major player, but after a year at Single and Double-A in which he posted a 12-3 record, 2.21 ERA 10.22 K/9 an a stupendous 9.25 K/BB mark, the future is bright for the  22 year old righty.

Kevin Slowey is someone I’ve long been in the corner of (check out the Player Profile I wrote back on March 28th, 2011). However, two issues have precluded him from reaching the heights that I think he can. (1) The guy just can’t stay healthy. In two of the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 100-innings. (2) He gives up way too many fly balls (48 percent of batted balls in his career), and they leave the yard at a near crippling rate (1.42 homers per nine innings). Therefore, the Rockies move to deal for him makes little sense to me. The Rockies think he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter, but given the enviornment in Colorado Slowey seems like a horrible addition given his long ball woes.

Aaron Harang had a decent season with the Padres going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, the San Diego born righty, who also went to San Diego State, wasn’t able to work out a deal with the Padres. No matter, He’ll end up merely needing to rent a U-Haul truck to move his stuff to Los Angeles after he agreed to a 2-year deal with the Dodgers ($12 million).

Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and the Marlins and the Cardinals are the two teams bidding most heavily for his services. Reports are circulating, including one by Bob Nightingale, that the Marlins have extended an offer to Pujols worth more than $200 million. The Cardinals are still in the mix, but it’s growing more likely by the minute that Pujols’ decision won’t have to be about one team outspending the other, it will be about where he wants to play for the next decade.

Andrew Bailey is on the market, though the Athletics asking price is apparently so high that Bailey may as well not be available. So far it seems like one of those situation where the A’s are saying ‘if you overpay we’ll give him to you’ but few teams seems willing to meet the exorbinant price the A’s are asking for in return for their often dominating closer who is under their control through 2014.

Jimmy Rollins was thought to be almost as good as gone from the Phillies 36 hours ago. There is now some growing optimism that he could return, though it still seems like the club is unwilling to go 5-years on a deal like Rollins wants. If the Phils are unable to come to an agreement they will look to add Aramis Ramirez while at the same time moving Placido Polanco to free up some cash. If Rollins returns, look for the Phils to go with Polanco as their third baseman and pass on Ramirez.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Doumit

On Friday last week Ryan Doumit picked his home for the 2012 season, and it will be in Minnesota with the Twins. While the deal seems to be a solid signing for the Twins, one year and $3 million (it also includes performance bonus’), what does this mean for the future of Joe Mauer behind the plate? Moreover, is this a signal that the team isn’t sold on Justin Morneau ever returning to All-Star levels? Does this signing signal the end of Jason Kubel’s tenure with the club (he was offered arbitration)? Those are all questions to ponder for another day as today I’m going to focus on Mr. Doumit.

A passable defensive catcher, Doumit is more prized for his bat. In fact, his best position certainly isn’t behind the dish, it’s probably as a hitter at it. Doumit appeared in 60 games as a catcher in 2011, and he’ll certainly see some time there in 2012. He’ll also likely play some first base, a spot he covered three times last year, and potentially the outfield (he appeared in right field in 18 games in 2010). Doumit will also have the advantage of being able to fill the DH role, and perhaps that will enable him to reach a career best in games played (currently 124 games). And that brings up major sticking point with Doumit – he’s always seemingly hurt. Just look at his games played totals the past seven years: 75, 61, 83, 116, 75, 124 and 77. That’s an average of 87 games a season. Given his constant battles to stay on the field, a move to the AL where he can DH seems like an ideal fit.

Doumit has had so many starts and stops from year to year that it’s often forgotten that he’s a darn good hitter, especially so for a player who qualifies at catcher. I’m gonna lay out the average, OBP and SLG of a handful of players. See if you can guess which one belongs to Doumit.

.273/.374/.474
.271/.334/.442
.271/.338/.451
.262/.328/.415

I know you’ll never guess, so I’ll just let you know who the lines belong to: Jorge Posada, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters.

That’s right, Doumit’s career slash line numbers fit right in with that mix of catchers. Shocked? How about this. Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2. Those aren’t great numbers, but how many catchers reached all five numbers in 2011? The answer is two: Alex Avila and Mike Napoli. If we remove the steals and just ask how many went .271-15-61-54 the group only grows by one more (Miguel Montero).

Remember, the 5×5 numbers I just mentioned are for Doumit’s entire career based on a 450 at-bat season. Will he reach that at-bat total in 2012? A lot of that certainly depends on his health, and we are talking about a guy who has only two 100 games seasons in his career. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Doumit has never, not one time, had 450 at-bats in a season (his career high is 431). Therefore, it’s clear that there is a lot of guesswork going on here. Still, when others reach for a catcher early in your draft it might be wise to sit back, wait a while, and take a chance on the newest Twins’ backstop as he could end up being quite the draft day pickup if he can stay in the lineup.

By Ray Flowers

Nathan to Close for Rangers

The Rangers made a move that will help to shape their ballclub in 2012 on Monday. The club from Texas signed Joe Nathan to a 2-year deal worth $15 million (with a club option for a third year). What does this deal mean for Nathan, and more importantly, the young arm that has filled the role of closer for the Rangers the past couple of seasons?

Nathan was brought into Texas to close. The 37 year old reliever, coming back off Tommy John surgery last season, pitched just 44.2 innings with a 4.84 ERA in 2011 which might cause many to wonder what the Rangers were thinking here. What they realized was that Nathan looked just like his old self in the second half of the season – a very common occurrence for pitchers coming back from TJ surgery who often need some time to round back into shape. Nathan posted the following numbers over his last 24 outings last year: 8.61 K/9, 4.40 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP with a .207 batting average against. That was good enough for the Rangers to believe Nathan will be in 2012 what he was every year from 2004-09, and that was an elite relief pitcher (in those six seasons Nathan’s lowest save total was 36). Nathan was brought in to close for the Rangers in 2012, and he should be very successful in that role.

Now we have to deal with the aftermath of that signing, and that is what happens to Neftali Feliz, who racked up 72 saves the past two years? Teams realize that it’s much easier to find someone to pitch one inning out of the bullpen than it is to find a hurler who can dominate out of the rotation every five days. As such, the plan has always been for Feliz to start for the Rangers. Given the success that the Rangers had in converting C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters the past two years, they clearly have a nice blueprint in place to help aid their hurlers in that transition. The move of Feliz into the rotation might also be an admission that the Rangers do not feel confident that they will be able to retain Wilson who is the top free agent arm on the market.

So what should you expect from Feliz in 2012? Good question. While the move to the rotation will likely reap major rewards at some point, it’s tough to see how he could become a dominant starter this coming season. There are a couple of reasons for that.

(1) A youngster at 23 years old, Feliz has thrown a total of 132.2 innings the past two years for the Rangers. Given that smallish workload, there are serious questions about how far the Rangers will let Feliz go in 2012. Ogando transitioned to the starting rotation and threw 169 innings in 2011 (Wilson was allowed to go 204 innings, but he was much older and had five years of big league experience under his belt). If Feliz was allowed to reach that rather modest total of 170 innings that would be 100 innings more than he has thrown in either of the last two seasons. That’s a huge increase. Given the importance of pitching in the game, and repeated instances of young hurlers having arm issues with major innings pitched increases, Feliz could be looking at a late season shut down, or periodic skipping of starts throughout the year to keep the innings under control.

(2) Feliz effortlessly tosses 96 mph cheese at hitters and that has led to an impressive 164 Ks in 162.2 innings in his career. However, his K-rate fell from 11.32 as a rookie down to 9.22 in 2010 and then 7.80 last season. If he could only strike out 7.80 batters per nine as a reliever last season, how many will he punch out when he is stretched out as a starter?

(3) After posting a BB/9 mark under 2.35 his first two years, Feliz saw that number explode in 2011 up to 4.33. If he can’t bring his walk rate back down, success will be elusive, especially if he repeats his awful 1.80 K/BB ratio from last season.

Let’s add everything up. Granted we’re talking only three years here, and with no season of even 70-innings it’s not a huge sample size, but in the following categories Feliz has seen his performance regress each of the past two years: ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BAA, BABIP, LOB%, xFIP. Is that a trend you wanted to see?

Nathan will be fine as the Rangers’ closer, and barring a physical setback, he should be good to go with his normal 35 saves. As for Feliz, his outlook is less clear. There is no disputing that he has an elite arm, and that one day he could easily vie for the Cy Young award. Still, given his almost across the board struggles last year, and the fact that he’s never thrown 70-innings in a big league season, I’m not going to be one of those folks out there paying for a hurler that I expect to pitch 200 innings with 180 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid 3′s.

 By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Michael Cuddyer

Michael Cuddyer is a solid major league player, both on the offensive side of things as well as with the glove. What will the team that signs him to a contract be getting, and what should you expect from him if you roster him in 2012 in the fantasy game?

One of the biggest strengths of Cuddyer is his ability to play, and thereby qualify, at multiple positions on the diamond. In 2012, given a 20 games played minimum in 2011, Cuddyer will qualify at first base (46 games) and the oufield (77 games). Unfortuantely, those are the two worst positions to qualify for considering that’s where so many offensive weapons patrol the landscape. If only he had appeared in a few more games at second base (17). He’ll still qualify at two spots in ’12, but with second and third base out of the mix in most leagues, Cuddyer’s value is diminshed somewhat heading into next season.

In terms of his offensive production, I feel like people often overestimate his impact.

Cuddyer has no real speed. Sure he stole 11 bases in 2011, but it was a career-high. Given that he had never before stolen more than seven bases, it’s a fair bet that we’ll see some regression in 2012, particularly since it’s not often that we see 33 year olds set a career best in the steals category.

Cuddyer is also barely better than your league average type in the batting average category. We are talking about a guy coming off a career best effort of .284, the same mark he also posted in 2006, and .012 points clear of his career batting average of .272. Could he repeat that mark in 2012? Certianly he could. But it bares repeating that he has never hit .285 in a season. He’s also coming off a season with a 0.51 BB/K mark, a direct match for his career rate. He also posted a slightly low 17.8 percent line drive rate. Not only is that line drive rate below the big league average of 19-20 percent, it’s also below Cuddyer’s personal mark of 18.5 percent and it is the third straight season he has failed to post a mark of even 18 percent. Add in a BABIP of .312, a 4-year high and slightly above his career .306 mark, and you can hopefully begin to understand why my picture of Cuddyer doesn’t include an impressive batting average in 2012.

Cuddyer also doesn’t have the power that some might think. There is no dispiuting that that Target Field hasn’t helped as the Park Indices mark for homers at Target Field is 10th in the American League the last two years. Still, Cuddyer has only hit more than 25 homers once in his career, 32 in 2009, and per 550 at-bats in his career we’re talking about a man with a 19 homer rate. It should also be pointed out that three times in the last five years his HR/F ratio has been in the single digits, and that his 12.3 percent career mark is barely better than average.

Adding everything up, Cuddyer is what he is, and that is a very solid, across the board contributor that can help any team. However, just because he has value doesn’t mean he should be someone you should target at the draft table in fantasy baseball. Cuddyer isn’t going to provide much of a boost to your team’s batting average, and he also isn’t likely to steal more than a handful of bases. As I’ve also touched on, his power is solid but far from the elite levels that one hopes for when you’re looking to add a player to handle first base or outfield duties. Obviously if he ends up in a better offensive ball yard surrounded by talented players that will not hurt his fantasy value, but the only way he would have truly been someone to target on draft day 2012 is if he had played three more lousy games at second base.

NOTE: Cuddyer signed a 3-year deal for more than $31 million to join the Rockies. While this might be a best possible scenario for Cuddyer, it doesn’t change the main thrust of this report, especially now that the humidor has sapped some of the offensive potential of hitters. Cuddyer is likely to hit a handful more home runs than initially expected, and his average could push .290 given his new home, but don’t let the ball yard lead you to think that Cuddyer is something that he isn’t.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September17, 2011

(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?

(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.

(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?

(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?

By Ray Flowers