Mailbag: April 12, 2011

Photo by Ted Kerwin

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What are your thoughts on an Aubrey Huff for Kendrys Morales trade?
– @jamesprussell

All preseason I said to be wary of Justin Morneau and Morales, though I don’t think most listened. Morneau has been healthy and on the field which is great news, but he has looked bad at the dish (.258/.303/.355). However, at least he is playing. Morales still is on the sidelines, and the exciting news here is that he will try to run on Tuesday or Wednesday. Think about that. He isn’t running without pain from an injury that occurred last May. I know Morales was really good in 2009, but let’s compare his numbers from that season to what Huff did last year for the Giants.

Morales: .306-34-108-86-3 with a .924 OPS
A. Huff: .290-26-86-100-7 with a .891 OPS

Huff is healthy, off to a a solid start (seven RBI in 10 games), and qualifies at first base and outfield. I see no reason why everyone wouldn’t prefer to roster Huff over the still working his way back into game shape Morales.

What do you think of this trade… I give up Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Howard for Adrian Gonzalez? I’d be left with David Aardsma as my top RP.
– @The_Real-Hart

I know everyone is ga-ga over A-Gone with his move to the Red Sox, and he has been productive so far hitting .297 with seven RBI in 10 games, but I’m a bit confuse by this proposal. Howard has averaged 46 homers, 136 RBI and 99 runs the past five years. I know he is coming off his worst full season (31 homers, 108 RBI, 87 runs) and that he will almost certainly fail to match Adrian in terms of batting average (more on that below), but do you know how many times A-Gone has been able to match the worst effort of Howard’s career (31-108-87)? Try three times. You can talk to me all you want about Petco Park, but the fact is that Howard’s run production isn’t likely to fall too far behind the Sox new slugger. Oh, and I bet it would shock most of you to learn that there is only a four point advantage for Gonzalez in career batting average over the Phillies’ slugger (.284 to .280).

If that paragraph didn’t convince you to turn down the deal, this one should. You simply cannot leave your bullpen in the hands of only Aardsma – that would be a huge mistake. Aardsma is working his way back from injury and looking good in doing it, but it’s far from certain he will immediately start saving games for the Mariners. Even if we posit that he will, you’ll still need a second closer to have any shot at a respectable finish in the saves category. The Braves have settled on Kimbrel as their man in the 9th, sorry Johnny Venters owners, and through 24.2 big league innings Kimbrel has a K/9 mark of 17.15 – the best mark in the history of baseball (min 20 innings).

Turn this offer down.

Sam Fuld or Angel Pagan?
– @dekampanilya

I can’t believe the love fast starters get (I tried, even though no one seems to be listening, to tell people to slow their roll when it comes to the fast start of Willie Bloomquist in 2011 Player Profile: Willie Bloomquist). Fuld could be an even dicier option than Bloomquist who has at least had some success in the big leagues. Due to the retirement of Manny Ramirez there has been an opening for Fuld to pick up playing time, an that makes him someone of interest in an AL-only league. But in a mixed league there is no chance I would roster him, and there is about as much chance I would do so if I had to drop Pagan as there is of me being asked to marry Jessica Biel to help her to get over the loss of Justin Timberlake. If we remove Fuld’s game on April 7th we are left with an outfielder who has four steals in 105 career games. Toss in a total of one homer and a .263 average and, well, blah. To compare, last season Pagan was a huge disappointment in the second half and he hit .263 with five homers and 18 steals. Remember people, the amount of the 2011 baseball season that is over is akin to one game during the NFL’s 16 game season. I implore you to exercise some patience.

I was offered Josh Beckett for Phil Hughes. Take it?
– @walterchase

Why in the world wouldn’t you take the deal? Hughes is struggling with velocity right now, and though the word is that it’s a mechanical thing, tell me you aren’t concerned when you look at his pitching line and see that over his last 18 starts his ERA is 5.76, his hit per nine mark is 9.54, his WHIP is 1.43, his K/9 has dropped to 6.2 and his HR/9 mark is 1.89? Folks, that is awful work, and 18 starts and 20 appearances (100 innings) is a pretty good chunk of work to start drawing some conclusions. Think of it this way. As bad as Beckett was in 2010 his ERA was only 0.02 higher and his WHIP only 0.11 worse. On the flip side Beckett’s K/9 rate was a vast improvement over Hughes’ mark at 8.18 and his HR/9 mark was lower at 1.41. That’s right. As awful as Beckett was last year Hughes has actually been even worse over his last 20 appearances. Toss in the mph/mechanical concern, and the fact that Beckett wasn’t nearly as bad last season as some would lead you to believe (see Is Josh Beckett Finished?) and this is clearly a deal you have to accept.

Zack Britton or Chris Narveson in deep H2H league?
– @ronscrafano

Everyone loves the hot young stud don’t they? Britton is a lefty who has burst on to the scene because of the injury to Brian Matusz. In two starts Britton has allowed just one run going 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA. Britton has been groomed to be a top of the rotation starter, and his greatest asset is his ability to keep the ball on the ground. His control can be hit or miss at times, but for the most part he is a polished youngster who appears ready to take the ball every day. Of course, there are a couple of caveats. (1) He pitches in a park that favors hitters. (2) He pitches in the tough AL East. (3) He could lose his starting rotation spot when Matusz/Justin Duchscherer return to action. (4) He’s yet to throw 160-innings as a professional.

Narveson certainly doesn’t have the pedigree of Britton, an it would be shocking if ended up with the better career. That doesn’t necessarily mean he is the better fantasy option right now however. Over Narveson’s last 16 starts he has posted a strong set of ratios (3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) which have been reflective of his successful work on the hill as Narveson has also struck out an average of 7.7 batters per nine innings leading to a 2.86 K/BB mark. If Britton has a wildly successful rookie season he’s not likely to be able to match the ERA, WHIP or K/9 rate that Narveson has flashed over his last 16 appearances. I’m not saying Narveson is going to be an elite option in 2011, but for my money he’d be the hurler I would roster out of this duo.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Mailbag: April 7, 2011

Photo by Stefanie Seskin

You asked on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, so here are my answers.

Ricky Romero – look to sell high or does he have the stuff to pitch like this all year? Not a keeper league – @brianmck558

I’m always one for selling high as it’s one of the best ways going to come out ahead in the long run. Question though – how can you sell high on a guy after one start? I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out this year. It seems like everyone playing fantasy baseball is ready to change their thoughts on every player on the diamond after a weeks worth of games. Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that we were all happy with our teams? Please give Around the Horn – Slow Starts a listen to help bring you down from the ledge.

As for Romero, like I said, I don’t know how one start will change his outlook in anyone’s eyes. He is what we thought he was. That is a stable, young hurler with a whole lot to like. In his second full season last year Romero upped his K/9 mark to 7.46, dropped his BB/9 mark to 3.51 and upped his GB/FB rate to 2.08. Add all of that together and you have a pitcher, who if anything, may have been slightly undervalued on draft day 2011.

Matt Thornton still safe for CWS? If not, whose the next in line? Chris Sale? – @atlnagel

Here we go again. Unfortunately some people will worry about their relievers now that we’ve seen the Angels totally panic with their 9th inning role (see Diamond Musings). Matt Thornton will be fine and he will hold on to the 9th inning role all year long in my opinion. For those of you who have forgotten, here is how Thornton ranks amongst all big league pitchers who have thrown 200-innings the past three years.

2nd in base runners per nine innings (9.58)
Fourth in K/9 (10.91)
Sixth in ERA (2.70)
Ninth K/BB (4.03)

I’ve said it before, but I truly think he is the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and the numbers certainly seem to support that position.

AL-only league. Should I drop Mark Buehrle for Jake Arrieta? – @canebluedevil

One of the most consist hurlers in the game, Buehrle had a rough spring and has followed that up with two less than exciting outings to start the year. Still, you know what you are going to get with him. (1) You’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s done that for 10-straight year. (2) You’ll get lots of innings as he has thrown at least 200-innings in each of the last 10 years. Moreover, Buehrle is the only pitcher in baseball who has hit both of those marks each of the past 10 years. (3) You’ll get a pitcher who is fairly certain not to hurt you in ERA (his mark has been 4.00 three of the past four years). There is no upside, but there would appear to be little downside.

Arrieta is a wild card. What happens when/if Justin Duchscherer and Brain Matusz return to action – will Arrieta hold on to his starting spot? Arrieta throws hard but his control isn’t terrific (his BB/9 rate if we combine his work at Triple-A and the majors last year was 4.26), and that doesn’t help when your off-speed stuff grades out as nothing more than average. He’s young and would seem to have the brighter future than Buehrle, but for 2011 I think the easy call is to go with the veteran lefty from Chicago.

Albert Pujols and Brett Anderson for J.P. Arencibia, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter. Who gains? – @faizalkhamisa

Arencebia is a wild card. Early reports suggest that he will start three of five games. Will that be enough to generate anything other than bottom level 2nd catcher value? Probably not. Carpenter is a stud, but is his outlook that much better than that of Anderson for 2011? Check out the numbers for the last two years.

Anderson: 7.04 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 3.36 K/BB, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Carpenter: 6.80 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

A lot closer than you thought, isn’t it?

Pujols is so good and so phenomenally consistent that I’d prefer the Pujols/Anderson side of the deal, and you know that pains me to say since I’m such a big supporter of Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: April 5, 2011

Photo by Keith Allison

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What are your thoughts on an Aubrey Huff for Kendrys Morales trade?
– @jamesprussell

Everyone is still in love with Morales, and I’m just not sure I understand why that is. I know Morales has posted a 5×5 line of .284-28-94 per 162 games in his career, and that in his last full season that he hit .306-34-108 (2009). Still, the guy hasn’t played in a big league game since last May, and he still isn’t 100 percent with his leg. Don’t get me wrong, I think he has a solid chance to be effective once he returns to full health and shakes off the rust, but I have no faith that will occur at any point in April.

Huff gets no love despite finishing 2010 in 7th place in the NL MVP vote. Did anyone notice that he hit one more homer than Adam LaRoche (26 to 25), had three more RBI than Prince Fielder (86 to 83), scored 13 more runs than Ryan Howard (100 to 87) or that he posted a better OPS than Mark Teixeira (.891 to .846)? Or how about the fact that Huff has hit at least 20 homers in seven of the last nine years and had at least 85 RBI in six of the last eight years? Or how about the fact that Huff qualifies at first base and in the outfield?

Add that all up and I want Huff over the uncertainty of Morales.

Who do you prefer – Adam Jones or Jose Tabata?
– @oomyjosh

Adam Jones has produced nearly identical totals the past two years.

2009: .277-19-70-83-10
2010: .284-19-69-76-7

While that seems like a good thing, it really isn’t. The reason for that is that Jones posted nearly identical totals in 2010 despite 102 extra plate appearances, so his rate of production fell precipitously. Also in the negative column is that his walk rate was cut in half leading to the third BB/K mark below 0.25 over the last four years for Jones. It’s pretty darn difficult to have consistent, long term success when you have such poor control of the strike zone.

Tabata’s game is his wheels, and unlike other players with similar skill sets – I’m talking about you Carlos Gomez – Tabata gets it. Jose posted a 2.42 GB/FB ratio last season beating the ball into the turf and using his wheels to chug out the hits. Obviously that means he will fall well short of the power production of Jones, but the corollary is that Tabata should at least double, if not triple, the steal total of Jones. Another plus derived from his speed and ground ball tendencies is that his batting average could continue to push .300 as it did last year when he hit .299.

If you need speed Tabata would be a nice fit. However, I’m still going to say you go with Jones. His ability to be a five category contributor still exists, and if he just gains a modicum of patience at the dish he could conceivably be a top-25 performer at the outfield position. After all, he is just 27 years old.

Brian Duensing or Brandon Beachy?
– @saleemthedream

Duensing gets it done. Over 214.2 innings in his career the lefty has posted strong ratios (3.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) despite a less than scintillating 5.49 K/9 mark. Duensing is able to generate a lot of ground balls, 50 percent of batted balls in his career, which helps to offset his poor K-rate and less than big league average 1.98 K/BB mark. However, Duensing is much more Jake Westbrook than he is Francisco Liriano, and though he might have a long and successful big league career he simply doesn’t profile as a hurler who has much chance or replicating his ratios from last year (2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) or one who is destined to be a fantasy ace.

People love rookies don’t they? After Beachy allowed just one run while racking up seven Ks in six innings in his first start, the love for Beachy is at an all time high. Still, let’s be fair to Beachy here. First, the kid has all of 174.2 innings above Single-A ball. Normally that wouldn’t be too much of a concern, but up until 2008 Beachy was primarily a hitter so it is an issue. That’s not a lot of experience on the hill. Second, while his stuff is good, it’s not at the elite level. He does possess three solid big league pitches (fastball, curve, change up), and he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters which should serve him well. Once the Braves rotation is back to full strength – i.e. Jair Jurrjens returns – Beachy will likely be looking over his shoulder ever time he struggles with Mike Minor looming.

I’d take a shot on Beachy who has the old upside tag going for him, though Duensing wouldn’t be a horrible fall back option.

What are your thoughts on Chris Narveson? Worthy of 10 team mixed consideration?
– @patrickmccurry

I’ve been touting Narveson as a great late round add for months now (Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought). Narveson isn’t overpowering, but that didn’t stop him from having a wonderful run to the finish last year posting strong totals over his last 14 starts – 5-3, 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.33 K/9 an a 2.75 K/BB mark. All of that means that Narveson profiles as a solid depth add in deeper mixed leagues or NL-only setups. However, he’s likely stretched as starter in a 10-team league, so in that setup you should be able to do a bit better.

Jhonny Venters or Jordan Walden? I already have Mariano Rivera and Chris Perez, so I’m looking for depth.
– @bambam12093

It looks like the Braves have settled on Craig Kimbrel in the 9th inning leaving Venters to handle 8th inning work which would seem to cap his fantasy upside in the short term. Still, Venters has been an absolutely dominating force during his brief big league career of 85.2 innings – 2.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.77 K/9 and an amazing 4.35 GB/FB ratio (the big league average is usually about 1.10). You’ve heard me say it before if you paid any attention to my work – the ideal combo with a pitcher is one who misses bats and one who generates tons of grounders. That’s Venters in a nutshell.

Walden has a slight advantage in the fantasy game in that the closer on his team – Fernando Rodney – is terrible. That would seem to move Walden much closer to working the ninth inning. The Angels do have other options to handle the 9th – don’t forget about Scott Downs who is nearing a return from a foot issue – but Walden’s early season work this year is drawing rave reviews (five of his seven outs have come via the strikeout and he owns a 14.26 K/9 mark over 17.2 big league innings). When your average fastball is 98 mph, people tend to notice.

At this point the better pitcher is likely Venters. However, with the uncertain 9th inning of the Angels,  the better short term fantasy pick up is Walden.

MLB Mailbag: March 31, 2011

I’m gonna switch it up a bit today in honor of the start of the 2011 season. Instead of going in depth on a couple of questions, I’m going to answer some quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

12 team 5×5 mixed league. Kila Ka’aihue or Mark Trumbo?
– @truesportsfan

No team scares the bejesus out of me more than the Royals who never, and I mean never, seem to have a consistent plan. Take the case of Alex Gordon. He’s been demoted to the minors, asked to switch positions, and basically marginalized by the team. He goes to spring training this year, tears it up at the dish, and now seems likely to open the year in the third hole in the batting order. That makes total sense to me.

Ka’aihue should have been playing full-time in Kansas City last year. With Eric Hosmer coming quickly, the Royals need to determine if they truly have something in Kila since both guys play first base (and don’t forget about Billy Butler who really should be a DH). Kila has 25-30 homer pop, and the young man knows the strike zone (last year he had 88 walks and 69 Ks at Triple-A). He has the exact kind of patient/power approach that teams crave at first base. His future appears to be pretty bright after a strong spring and the Royals finally deciding to commit to him as a full-time player.

Trumbo was a monster at Triple-A last year (.299-36-122), and has looked capable of providing a ton of power this season if we look at his spring training numbers (.297-6-20 with a .978 OPS in 25 games). At the same time, I worry about where he will play once Kendrys Morales returns to action (potentially by mid to late April). The issue is this – the Angels have one to many players for 1B/OF/DH. For those five spots they have six guys: Trumbo, Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos. The key to Trumbo’s playing time is likely Bourjos. If he hits enough to get on base and use his 40+ stolen base wheels he’ll be in the lineup everyday (I didn’t even mention his defense which some consider to be as good as any outfielder in baseball) leaving Trumbo without a consistent spot in the lineup.

If choosing between these two first basemen I’d take Kila.

People seem down on Ryan Franklin. Would you swap him for Joel Hanrahan or Drew Storen?
– @Cwhitney1

Far too many people seem reluctant to tab Hanrahan this year, and I just don’t get it. Just compare his numbers versus Franklin last season.

Hanrahan: 12.92 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 1.05 GB/FB
Franklin: 5.82 K/9, 4.20 K/BB, 1.15 GB/FB

Everything being equal, I’ll take the guy who strikes out twice as many guys and doesn’t rely on smoke and mirrors to get outs.

Storen has looked completely lost at times this spring, and the plan in Washington right now is to go with some sort of committee approach which could be led by Sean Burnett. Do yourself a favor and grab Hanrahan. It might now work out, but he is the hurler I’d take without question (for more on why that is see How to Evaluate Relievers).

With Brad Lidge out for a couple months who’s the safer pick – Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras?
– @tjaden_buster

Madson is by far the “safer” selection (see Radiant Relievers). However, apparently no one in the Phillies organization realizes that fact as he has constantly taken a backseat to Brad Lidge for 9th inning work in recent years. With the news about the shoulder injury with Lidge, one that could keep him out of action well into June,  that means Madson will finally be given the chance to close, right? Actually, no. It appears almost certain that the Phillies will call on Jose Contreras to take over closing duties. Contreras was dominant last year with more than a K per inning and an impressive 3.56 K/BB mark, but he is also “reportedly” 39 years old, had never posted a K/BB mark above 2.44 (albeit as a starter), and has four career saves. Contreras appears likely to have more early season value, but Madson is still the “safer” play based on his skill set.

Should I keep Justin Morneau at $18 in a 6×5 mixed. $260 budget? OPS is our 6th batting category.
– @frankdepino

I don’t have much faith in Morneau. He might go out and hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, but it’s a huge risk as he is still working his way back from a concussion. People seem to be thinking he is going to pick right up from last years level of production (.345-18-56 in 81 games), but I’m just not sold. First, he has a career .286 average and has only three seasons in his career over .275 if you include last season. Second, though his OPS was tremendous last year at 1.055, he’s only posted a mark over .880 one time in a full season (.934 in 2006). Third, and most obvious, is his health – will he be able to play everyday? Personally I wouldn’t have spent that much on Morneau, there’s just too much risk for me, but if he plays 145 games he’ll surely produce $18 worth of production.

Ryan Raburn is a better pick up than Logan Morrison?
– @mattextreme

Raburn is a player everyone seems really hot on right now. Do to popular demand, I wrote a piece about him entitled 2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn. Here’s a quick recap. He’s a great power option if he qualifies at second base, but as an outfielder he is merely a depth option. Regardless of where he qualifies, Raburn is still the choice between these two guys in my mind. Morrison could easily have the more productive big league career, but in terms of his fantasy value he is somewhat limited. He won’t steal many bases, he’s only swiped 23 over the past five years, and though he hit 24 homers at Single-A in 2007, he’s managed a mere 29 homers over his last 1,264 at-bats. His stroke is much more doubles oriented at the moment that one that will lift balls into the seats. His plate discipline is a strong suit, he could walk as many times as he strikes out which should allow him to produce an effective batting average, but without power or speed Morrison’s 5×5 value is somewhat limited.

What do you think of Tim Stauffer?
– @johndasher

Stauffer is one of those pitchers who somehow has moved up 35 spots on some people’s draft boards despite never having thrown a pitch in a regular season game. Hell, some people probably didn’t even know who he was two months ago. I’m not one of those guys as I was trumpeting him back in January in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer. Bottom line, there’s a lot to like with this Padres’ hurler.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Just Keeping Afloat

As you might have gathered, I’ve been really busy the past few days. Why? I’ve been tasked to produce the Fanball Fantasy Hockey Draft Guide in less time than it takes the average fella to grow a beard. As a result, my time has been very limited in terms of writing anything other than information that is hockey related. With that, here are some links to some relevant information you might benefit from viewing.

I haven’t had a lot of time to write about baseball, but I’m still twittering like a madman. You can see my most recent Twitter posts at the right of this article, or you can just sign up at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page.

For those of you that enjoy the frozen pond, make sure give Owner’s Edge: NHL a read. I’m biased, but it’s a great source that will be greatly enhanced when the Draft Guide debuts.

The Marlins shut down Josh Johnson because of concerns about his back/shoulder. You can read about his 2010 exploits in Daily Dose: Johnson Shut Down.

For those of you with four minutes to kill, you simply must take a look at the following video of the Fanball crew doing a fantasy football draft. Its simply tremendous.

By Ray Flowers