Player Profile: Bryce Harper

What Bryce Harper did last season was amazing. Anytime a player hits 22 homers with 18 steals and 98 runs scored that is one heck of a season. When a player does that as a rookie it’s a rather remarkable season. When a player does that as a 19 year old it’s a season for the record books. Will the next great one build on a special rookie season in year two, and if so, how far up the mountain can he climb in 2013?

A look at some facts from 2012.

Bryce Harper hit 22 homers. Only one player 19 or younger ever hit more – Tony Conigliaro had 24 in 1964.

Bryce Harper had 59 RBIs. That is the 8th highest total ever for a player 19 years of age or younger (Phil Cavarretta had 82 in 1935).

Bryce Harper scored 98 runs. Only one player 19 or younger scored more (Buddy Lewis had 100 in 1936).

Bryce Harper had 18 steals. Only one player in the Modern Era (since 1901), 19 or younger, has ever stolen more bags (Ty Cobb stole 23 in 1906).

Bryce Harper had a .817 OPS as a 19 year old. No one 19 or younger ever had a better mark in a season of 502 plate appearances.

Given those facts, Harper must be looked at as an elite talent capable of immense things, the same point of view every person that has ever watched him play a game on the baseball field agrees with. This 19 year old kid was two steals and two runs from a 20/20, 100 season. Hell, Alex Rios and Carl Crawford have never done that. The question with Harper is how good will he be?

If we remove his name and age and just focus on the numbers, here is what we find.

He struggled against lefties hitting .240 with a .300 OBP and mere .415 SLG. He also struck out 51 times in just 183 at-bats against lefties.

He posted a BB/K mark of 0.47 which is basically league average. When he swung at a pitch that was thrown inside the strike zone he made contact 87 percent of the time, a solid number for a player who also owns a 20.1 percent K-rate.

His GB/FB ratio was 1.35, a bit higher than the league average. Moreover, his 33 percent fly ball rate was two percentage points below the league average making his homer total pretty impressive. The reason he was able to go deep 22 times was due to a solid 16.2 percent HR/F ratio. Anyone who has ever watched him hit knows that is a number he is more than capable of repeating and/or improving upon moving forward.

But we cannot remove the name on the back of the jersey from this discussion, can we? Much like the case with Mike Trout, these two players are once in a generation talents who just so happen to be starting their careers at the same time. Is it fair to either, particularly Harper since that’s who this piece is about, to treat him like every other youngster who has ever played the game? If I was to do that I would say that we should expect some moderate growth in year two. The average may not improve much, not until he cuts down the walks a bit and learns to be a bit more patient, but a repeat is well within the realm of the possible. I would also say that looking at the totality of the evidence that another run to 20/20 would be possible, though I would be a bit concerned about there being any homer growth since the fella didn’t hit as many fly balls as I would like to see.

Again though, is it fair to do this? Can we simply remove our beliefs/eyes when it comes to a generational talent like Harper? Do we change the way we evaluate players because of who Harper is and the fact that he accomplished so many amazing things as a mere 19 year old? That’s the exact point that analysis breaks down and the data might not be sufficient to explain what we are witnessing.

Is Harper capable of hitting .300?
NO. At this stage of his development he can be pitched to. If pitchers hit their spots they can not only get him out, but make him look bad in the process.

Is Harper capable of hitting 30 homers?
YES. Will he? Not without hitting more fly balls.

Is Harper capable of 20 steals?
YES. He nearly got there last year as a player with no big league experience an as one who got base at a .340 clip.

Is Harper capable of 80+ RBIs?
YES. The Nationals would seem to have a pretty stacked order, but it will still be tough for him to knock in 80+ runs if he hits out of the #2 hole (his spot for 117 of his 139 games last season).

Is Harper capable of 100 runs scored?
Duh. He had 98 last season. Hitting second obviously helps him in this category.

So what would you pay on draft day for a guy who could go .280-25-75-100-20. An awful lot right? I’m not saying that Harper will hit all five of those numbers. I’m also not saying he’ll fall short in all five categories. I merely use those numbers as a way to illustrate how most people will be viewing him on draft day which means if you want to roster Harper this year you will have to be willing to spend a top-25 selection. I don’t think I will be able to join that party. I know that he is an immense talent who we might one day look back on and be able to tell our children that we saw him play from the first day of his career, but I also know that he is only 20 years old and has a total of 139 games played at the big league level. I’d rather spend a top-25 selection on a player that I felt more secure about producing across the board than on Harper, even if there is a good chance that he ends up fulfilling those lofty expectations in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 16, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I get questions every day with people asking me to give my sage advice. Here are my answers to some of those queries.

I’m losing ground in saves. I have Brett Lawrie and Martin Prado for my last Util. spot. Would you trade either for Kevin Gregg?
– @we3kings00

One word – no.

Brett Lawrie is killing it. The uber prospect has hit .343 with three homers, eight RBI and a 1.121 OPS. Given the hype that he entered the league with after similarly crushing Triple-A pitchers (.353-18-61-64-13 in 69 games), his value has to be sky-high right now. He won’t keep up the average, that .375 BABIP is pretty darn high, and he’s hitting too many fly balls (50 percent) while converting to large a percentage of them for homers (23.1 percent). Still, this amazing start hints at the talent that Lawrie does possess and explains why everyone was falling all over themselves look to add him to their squad this year.

Martin Prado qualifies at third base in outfield in all leagues, and though he hasn’t played second this season, he appeared in 98 games there last year so he should be good to go there as well. As we get deeper into the season injuries are always an issue, as is potential playing time loss for some veterans to youngsters. That gives a guy like Prado, who qualifies at three spots, even more value because he can fill in all over the field. A career .300 hitter, Prado is at .274. I would expect that number to rise a bit. The reason is three fold. First, his BB.K rate of 0.70 is better than his career 0.58 rate thanks to a career low K-rate. Second, though his GB/FB ratio is 1.48, right on his 1.38 career mark, he’s managed a line drive rate of 14.7 percent. A career 19.3 producer in that category, he’s posted at least an 18.9 percent mark the last four years. Third, his BABIP is just .278. Now that isn’t surprising given his line drive rate, but again it is out of the norm for a guy who owns a .322 mark in his career. Like I said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit .300 from here on out because those numbers will eventually normalize (hopefully it will happen before the season ends).

Let’s break down the save. A 30 save performer averages five saves a month (the season is six months long). Therefore, it should be relatively easy to determine your chances of moving up, or moving down by using that as a baseline. Gregg has 17 saves likely meaning he will fall short of that 30 level. Not just that, he might be the worst full time closer in the American League. That’s not hyperbole either. Amongst AL hurlers with at least 15 saves he is last in WHIP (1.57) and second to the bottom in ERA at 4.11 (Matt Capps is last at 4.38). Gregg also leads the group with 30 walks leading to a simply putrid K/BB ratio of 1.30. That’s just pathetic. He’s also pitching poorly of late with a 6.17 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 1.22 K/BB ratio over his last 13 outings. I want nothing to do with him.

If you’re dealing either of your two hitters you should be aiming much higher than the bespectacled one from Baltimore.

Jason Kipnis, Mike Carp, or Delmon Young for power ROTW?
– @KenCaeti

Kipnis has certainly started off his career with the proverbial bang. He’s gone deep six times in 68 at-bats, a pace that would net him 44 homers over 500 at-bats. Considering that he hit all of 32 homers over his first 1,050 professional at-bats… do I need to even finish that sentence? It’s early so it’s tough to draw any conclusions, but Kipnis is going to have to cut his 29 percent K-rate quickly or that average (.279) could head south. With little hope of being a base stealing asset, Kipnis is likely to settle in as a moderate mixed play option the rest of the way at second base unless he can somehow sustain his unsustainable homer pace (look no further than his 38 percent HR/F ratio for a reason that he has no chance to keep this up).

Carp is totally out of control, an I mean totally. A .200 hitter his first 15 games in the majors this season, Carp has morphed into Adrian Gonzalez since the All-Star break. In 24 games he is batting .371, has six homers, has knocked in 26 runners and has posted a 1.041 OPS.  The question is, how long will it be before he realizes that he isn’t Adrian Gonzalez? His 19 percent HR/F ratio is a bit elevated, and with less than 34 percent of his batted balls ending up in the air, it would be a stretch to expect the power to continue at this rate, especially given his home park (still, he has flashed 30 homer power in the minors, so there is a reasonable expectation that the power will continue). More concerning is the 30 percent line drive rate and .411 BABIP mark. Ty Cobb couldn’t match that.

All of a sudden everyone wants to know about Young with his surprising deal to the Tigers. He should see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, and the move out of Minnesota should help as well since that’s a tough park to hit in. Still, he’s been a huge disappointment this season. Oddly though, he’s exactly matched his .312 BABIP from last season though he’s lost .029 points in batting average (.269), and his 0.32 BB/K mark is only 0.03 off of last year. Also, his 18.4 percent line drive rate is two tenths off his career norm, and his 1.31 GB/FB ratio is pretty close to his 1.44 career mark. What I’m saying is that he would appear to have a decent shot to improve his batting average the rest of the way.

So who to add? Young is the most accomplished hitter, but he’s no power threat – at all. Kipnis has been the best power bat of the trio of late, but there is simply no way he can sustain his pace. Therefore, if your goal is to add power to your lineup, I’d suggest adding Carp. Heaven help us.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Ivan Nova for rest of season?
– @tonyistheone

Sanchez has had a fine season and produced a great return on your investment. However, he’s performed poorly of late allowing at least four earned runs in four of five games. He’s also gone 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last six starts. Is he simply wearing down? It’s tough to be too hard on the guy as he has still exceeded his career K/9 rate by two batters (9.41) while dropping a full batter off his walk rate (2.58). He deserves better than his 6-6 record, and his ERA according to xFIP should be closer to three (3.05) than his actual ERA of 4.00.

Nova may or may not remain in the rotation for the Yankees. The good news fore Nova is that A.J. Burnett has a 6.17 ERA and 1.83 over his last six starts, Freddy Garcia doesn’t know how to use a kitchen knife (he cut his finger and had to miss a start) and Phil Hughes is all over the map looking good one outing then getting bombed (it looks like Hughes will likely be sent to the bullpen leaving Nova in the rotation). Nova has a win in seven of his last eight outings, and five times in that stretch he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs. Though he’s pitching better than Sanchez right now he’s giving away four strikeouts per nine (5.37) and is walking more batters (3.28 per nine). He makes up for it with an impressive 55 percent ground ball rate, and pitching for the Yanks obviously affords him a better chance to pick up a “W”.

If your goal is to target wins, something that is always a risk, then go with Nova. If you’re trying to move up, or maintain, your spot in the strikeout column, then Sanchez is the choice. How is that for an  answer?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

The Greatest CF Ever?

The Kid always had that swagger. He had the smile, wore his hat backwards, and had one of the smoothest swings in the history of the game. He defined a generation of ballplayers, often being the yin to Barry Bonds yang, and the end result will be his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame in five years. Of course, I’m talking about Ken Griffey Jr.

My first recollection of Griffey isn’t a homer or a catch to rob one, but going to the local ball card shop with my brother and friend in 1989. My brother and I each bought two Upper Deck Griffey cards, while our buddy bought 20 of them at $2 a piece (no joke). I’ve since lost touch with that friend, but hopefully he hung on to all those cards because he’d have made a pretty penny (at the lower end I think they go for $40-50). Why did my friend grab so many rookies of Griffey? He clearly knew what he was doing – slightly ahead of me and my cheapskate ways at the time (I think I bought two boxes of Score cards instead – and that wasn’t a great choice in retrospect).

However, my greatest memories of Griffey obviously emanate not from losing a small fortune, but from his work on the diamond. You’ll see the numbers listed everywhere you read about Griffey the next few days, so I’ll just list them quickly.

630 homers, 5th all-time
1,836 RBI, 14th all-time
1,662 runs, 31st all-time
1,192 extra base hits, 6th all-time
5,271 total bases, 12th all-time

* He was named to 13 All-Star teams including every year from 1990-2000 – the entire decade.

* He won the MVP award in 1997, unanimously. He was awarded 3.20 Career MVP Shares, 27th best of all-time.

* Here might be the most amazing part of the whole deal; Griffey wasn’t just a hitter, he was a sublime fielder who 10-straight Gold Gloves, one for each year of the decade of the 1990′s. Think about that. He won a Gold Glove ever year of the 90′s. Only Roberto Clemente (12) and Willie Mays (12) won more amongst outfielders.

Injuries curtailed Griffey’s career prematurely, and people who only remember the broken down player of the past few years are doing this man a disservice. Just how great was he during his prime? From 1996-1999, there wasn’t a finer player in the game. In that four year period of time he was the MVP once, finished fourth twice, and was 10th on the other occasion. As for the numbers, he never hit fewer than 48 homers, knocked in fewer than 134 runs, scored fewer than 120 or stole fewer than 15 bases in any of those four years. Griffey is therefore the only man in the history of the game to go 48-134-120-15 in 4-straight seasons – and he also won a Gold Glove every season to boot.

But beyond the greatness of his two-way play, beyond the childlike enthusiasm and beyond the fact that he was never embroiled in any off-field issues of any kind until the recent ludicrous story that he was sleeping during a game, there is one salient fact that sets him apart from everyone else he played against – not once has his name ever been linked to performance enhancing drugs.

Now I have no inside knowledge, I wasn’t in the locker room with any of these guys and I don’t share beers with them on a Friday night, so like the rest of you it’s all rumor and supposition about what went on behind closed doors. But as stated, what we do know is that Griffey’s name was never linked to PED’s. Therefore, he just might be the only slugger of his era whose exploits aren’t thought to have been chemically enhanced. Given that, there is nothing to stop Griffey from entering the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

So, was Griffey the best center fielder in the history of the game? It’s pretty difficult to think that Griffey was as good an all-around player as Willie Mays, and he clearly lacked the outward passion of Ty Cobb, and it’s not like there aren’t two all-time greats who roamed centerfield for the Yankees in Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle. In the end the question will continue to be debated, but I feel completely comfortable in stating that Ken Griffey Jr. was the greatest all-around center fielder this scribe ever had the privilege of watching play the game of baseball, and while that might not mean a thing to Mr. Griffey, it means the world to me.

By Ray Flowers

How About That: Hitters

I’m busy as hell today running all over the place making sure everything for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is in place for the event to officially begin late tonight (all the players in the database on the correct teams, etc.). Still, I didn’t want to leave you hanging without an update, so here is a quick listing of a few interesting facts that might pique your attention.

* If we remove all 135 hits that Barry Bonds produced in 2004, give him an 0-for-135, his OBP for that season still would have been .391 – a mark that would have been good enough for 12th in the NL in 2009 (Bonds produced a .609 OBP in ’04, the best mark in history).

* There are only three men who have ever had a season of 20 homers and 60 steals. They are Eric Davis in 1986 (27 HR, 80 SB), Joe Morgan in 1973 (26 HR, 67 SB) and 1976 (27 HR, 60 SB) and Rickey Henderson in 1985 (24 HR, 72 SB) 1986 (28 HR, 87 SB) and 1990 (28 HR, 65 SB).

* In 1982 Rickey Henderson set a major league record with 130 SB. He also set the ML record with 42 caught stealing that year as well.

* Jim Rice could really hit, but the hard shots he hit, combined with his cement feet, led to a ton of double plays in his career. Rice is the all-time single season leader with 36 GIDP in 1984. He is also second on the list with 35 in 1985.

* The all-time record for hit-by-pitch in a single season is 51, held by Hughie Jennings in 1896 (the “modern” record is held by Ron Hunt with 50 in 1971). Jennings owns three of the top-4 seasons ever, and is #1 all-time with 287 HBP in his career, two more than Craig Biggio.

* Ty Cobb had seven months with 50+ hits, with a high of 67 twice (July 1912, July 1922).

* Ichiro hit .372 in 2004 on his way to a single season record 262 hits. Even more amazing was the fact that he hit .429 after the All-Star break (143 for 333).

* Nap Lajoie is officially credited with the highest single season batting average of the modern era at .426 in 1901. However the all-time leader is actually Hugh Duffy who hit .440 in 1894.

* Poor Randy Tate. In 1975 he went the entire season without a hit, 41 at-bats in total (with 22 Ks). He never played again making him the all-time leader for most career ABs without ever earning a hit.

* In 1894 the Baltimore Orioles team hit .343…and finished 2nd to the Philadelphia A’s who hit .349 (the league hit .309).

* Ever heard of Bill Bergen? From 1901-1911 he was a major league catcher who couldn’t hit at all. Of all hitters who have ever had at least 3,000 plate appearances, Bergen’s .170 batting average is the worst. How the hell did he earn 3,028 ABs with that average? He must have been one hell of a game manager.

* Ken Boyer hit 24 homers in each of four straight seasons (1961-64). If you think that is impressive, give Adam Dunn’s line a look as he hit 40 homers for 4-straight years (2005-08). In 204 he hit 46, and in 2009 he hit 38, so for that six year span of 2004-2009 Dunn averaged 41 homers a year.

By Ray Flowers

Who am I?

I often play this game of seeing if I can lead you down a path to eventually come up with the name of the player before I reveal who I’ve been writing about. I thought today would be a good time to go another round, for reasons that will become obvious as we move forward.

* I finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .266 with 84 runs scored and 24 steals.

* In my third season, at 22 years of age, I had my first All-Star season as I hit .287 with 60 RBI, 80 runs and 24 steals. In fact, this was the first of 12-straight seasons that I made the All-Star team.

* In my heyday, I was a good enough all-round option to place pretty well in MVP voting even though I never won the award. At one point I had a run of 3-straight years that I finished sixth, another time I came in fourth, and once I came in third.

* My best season? It was a doozy. That year I finished third in the MVP voting all I did was hit .323 with 24 homers, 120 RBI, 138 runs scored and 37 steals. Oh, I also posted a rather impressive .422 OBP helping me to produce a .955 OPS. The homers, RBI and runs scored were career bests, but I also scored 132 runs in another season, had two more years where I went deep 20 times, and had four other seasons in which I drove in more than 88 runs.

* In my career I managed to hit an even .300 (thanks to 2,724 hits) while hitting 210 homers as I knocked in 1,134 runs, scored 1,508 (40th all-time), and swiped 474 bags.

* I wasn’t just some offensive minded moron either, I could pick it to. Actually, I was more than just pretty good with the glove, some even called me poetic with the leather, as I won 6-straight Gold Gloves at one point and 10 overall.

Who am I? I’m Roberto Alomar.

Why do I bring up this retired great? Because he is eligible for the Hall of Fame for first time this year, and though I don’t know whether he will be elected on his first go ground, I would like to wholeheartedly through my hat in the ring of his supporters. Sure he has had some off-field incidents and that time where he spat in an umpires face obviously was a low point, but it’s not like every man already enshrined in the Hall of Fame was a good guy (take my word for it). And honestly, I don’t really care if he was a jerk face or not, the Hall of Fame is for great players and it is undeniable that he was just that. You can look at the raw numbers, and they are certainly impressive for any player especially one who played second base (he is one of just five men in history, and the only second baseman, to hit at least .300 with 1,100 RBI, 1,500 runs, 500 doubles and 450 steals. The others are Paul Molitor, Ed Delahantry, Honus Wagner and Ty Cobb). But it’s how he was viewed when he played that really speaks to his greatness, and when you make 12 All-Star teams and walk away from the game with 10 Gold Gloves, you were clearly thought of as the best at what you did during your career.

Will Alomar join other first ballot Hall of Famers when the results are announced on January 6th? I certainly hope so, because whether or not he was a good guy matters not, the man was a fantastic player and arguably one of the five greatest all-around second basemen in the history of the game.

By Ray Flowers

Henderson to the Hall

This coming weekend one of the most anticipated Hall of Fame acceptance speeches in recent memory is expected to be given by the always entertaining Rickey Henderson, the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball since Ty Cobb decided to hang up his spikes (Jim Rice will also be officially inducted). Before I delve into the numbers, I thought I would share a few anecdotal tidbits about Henderson, one of the great “characters” in the game.

* Henderson almost always, and I mean always, referred to himself in the third person with statements like ‘Rickey was really good tonight’ or “Rickey is going to take tomorrow off, his body is sore.’ Think I’m making it up? Hardly. Former A’s trainer Barry Weinberg said this. “Sometimes he’d say I think I might be sore tomorrow.” Mike Gallego would say, “How do you know you’re going to be sore tomorrow?” Rickey would reply – “Because Rickey knows Rickey.”

* He once fell asleep while icing his foot, got frostbite, and had to miss three games. True story.

* “Do your stretching before you sleep. That way you wake up loose.”

* When he broke the career stolen base record of Lou Brock, who was in attendance, Henderson exclaimed, loudly, that he was “the greatest of all-time!” Of course he was wearing his stylish Oakley Blades while doing it.

* “You have to keep running. I always believed I was going to be safe.”

* Henderson received a check for a million dollars from the A’s. He was so excited about the bonus that he took the check and had it framed and hung it on his wall. It was only later that he realized he needed to take the check to the bank if he wanted to get his money.

* “Ricky don’t like it when Rickey can’t find Rickey’s limo.”

* Noted Sabermatrician Bill James had this to say about Henderson. “Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I’ve replied “if you could somehow split him in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers.”

THE NUMBERS

Beyond all the fun the man could flat out play, and play he did all the way to the most steals in big league history (1,406) as well as the most runs ever scored (2,295). Henderson also racked up 3,055 hits, socked 297 long balls, and posted a .401 career ob base percentage. Think of things this way.

* Henderson scored at least 100 runs in a season 13 times, second to Hank Aaron’s total of 15 in baseball history. In addition, per 162 games in his career, Henderson averaged 121 runs (think about that for a moment).

* Henderson stole at least 50 bases 13 times, the most in big league history. Per 162 games in his career Henderson averaged 74 steals a season. Since 2000 only one man, Jose Reyes in 2007, has stolen 74 bases in a season (he had 78).

* Henderson’s total of 1,406 steals is 468 more steals than the #2 man on the all-time list, Lou Brock. Amongst active players I believe the leader in steals is Juan Pierre with 452 (Henderson was caught stealing 335 times). Think about that, the active leader doesn’t even have as many steals as Henderson’s lead is over the #2 man all-time. To put it another way, Henderson has roughly a 35% advantage over the second place man on the steals list. If we switch over to home runs that would mean that someone would have to hit over 1,100 home runs in their career to be ahead of the current leader, Barry Bonds (762) by the same percentage.

And finally….

* Henderson is one of only two men in baseball history to hit 275 home runs while scoring 1,500 times and stealing 500 bases. The other is Barry Bonds.

So sit back and enjoy Henderson’s victory speech this weekend. It should be one heck of an event marking the entrance into the Hall of one of the 10 greatest all-around players ever to lace up the spikes.

By Ray Flowers