Mailbag: July 19, 2011

photo © 2010 Jeremy Bronson | more info (via: Wylio)

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, and your wish is my command.

Give Ubaldo Jimenez, get Jay Bruce – thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

Ah, the case of Jay Bruce strikes again.

Bruce, the talented outfielder for the Reds, runs as hot as Jennifer Aniston in Horrible Bosses and as cold as a snake whose heat lamp has blown a bulb. Bruce was arguably the best batter in baseball in May hitting .342 with 12 homers, 33 RBI and 23 runs scored on the month (28 games). However, over his other 64 games played this year he’s hit only nine homers, knocked in 24 runs, scored 29 times and hit .,227. Yikes is right. Regardless of the nausea inducing ride, Bruce is still on pace to hit 35 homers with 97 RBI, 88 runs and 10 steals and that is some serious production. However, you take the risk of adding the “ugly” Bruce – there’s no guarantee that Jennifer Aniston is going to com and frolic for you, so there’s certain risk in adding the schizophrenic outfielder.

Ubaldo has had a renaissance of late. Over his last nine outings he had gone 5-3, but it’s his ratios that really sparkle. Over his last 59.2 innings Jimenez has a 2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and a superb 4.15 K/BB ratio. He’s completely locked in for the Rockies. As a result of his recent hot streak his numbers this season compare quite nicely to his career numbers.

2011: 8.08 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 1.39 GB/FB, 0.65 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP, 3.59 xFIP
Career: 8.09 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB, 0.57 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP, 3.83 xFIP

With the way that Ubaldo is locked in right now, and the guessing game you have to play with Bruce, I’d side with Ubaldo in this comparison.

Is it time to move on from Justin Smoak?
– @pied1

Simply put if you’re in a 10 or 12 team mixed league, the answer is yes. If you’re in a 15 team mixed league though, the answer is much more open ended because of his current struggles (obviously the homers, 12, and RBI, 43, make him a viable AL-only option even with his batting average in the dumps at .227).

After hitting .284 in April with a .920 OPS, it has been all downhill for Smoak. His run total, RBI total, batting average and OBP have declined each subsequent month since April. Moreover, since the calender flipped to May, Smoak has appeared in 64 games with a slash line of .209/.301/.372. He has hit a home run every 29.25 ABs in that time, but given that the league average slash line this season is .255/.322/.399 you can easily determine that Smoak, as a first base option, has been a huge drag on your team if he’s been in your lineup. Would I move on from Smoak in a mixed league? For certain I would. In fact, I’m so down on the guy right now, relative to the mashers at first base, that I didn’t even list him in my top-20 at first in my Rest of the Way Rankings for Hitters.

In a 13 team league 5 x 5 roto, would you stash Stephen Strasburg as keeper for 25th round pick?
– @Kossdaboss7

Word out of Washington is that Strasburg’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is going so well that he might appear in the big leagues in the month of September. Regardless of whether or not that comes to fruition, there is near 100 percent certainty that he will be back to full strength on Opening Day 2012.

Does that mean you should keep him at the cost of a 25th round selection? The answer to that is an unqualified yes. Reasonable expectations should set the upper bar at 160-innings for Strasburg next year, that’s how many innings the Nats are going to limiting their other young Tommy John survivor – Jordan Zimmerman – to this year. Still, 160 innings is plenty good enough for you to siphon off 25th round value from Strasburg. Though Strasburg only has 68 big league innings under his belt, let’s use his performance in that time as a baseline for expectations. Let’s further postulate that he returns 75 percent of his 2010 performance. What would that net you? How about a 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.14 K/9 and a 4.05 K/BB ratio. If he were to do that over 160 innings he would still more than warrant a 25th round protection.

Who is better to roster assuming they take over the closer role for their team due to trade – Mike Adams or Mike Dunn?
– @slappzilla

The rumor mill suggests that Heath Bell will be dealt out of San Diego with the assumption being that Adams will take over as the closer.

The rumor mill suggests that Leo Nunez will be dealt out of Florida with the assumption being that Dunn could take over as the closer.

However, both situations are hairy. Not only are we making decisions based upon supposition, there are issues with both replacement arms. While Adams would certainly be the first choice to take over in San Diego, the same reports that suggest that Bell will be moved are also saying that Adams is available for the right price. If Adams is dealt it seems quite possible that he could remain in a setup role. As for Dunn, there has been no official mention of who the favorite would be to take over in the 9th inning with names like Edward Mujica and Randy Choate also in the mix (and don’t forget about Steve Cishek).

So who would I suggest adding? I’m gonna say you go with the pitcher with the best skills (remember the motto, go for skills vs. role). Dunn has a nice arm with a 10.64 K/9 rate in his career, but that 6.52 BB/9 mark might even make Carlos Marmol blush. It’s damn near impossible to count on a guy who can’t throw strikes. As for Adams, here are his rankings amongst all pitchers who have thrown at least 125 innings since the start of the 2009 season:

1st in ERA (1.35)
1st in base runners per nine (7.67)
1st in hits per nine (5.22)
14th in K/BB (4.00).

Give me Mr. Adams who is, flat out, one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball when healthy.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

MLB Mailbag: March 2, 2011

I’m in a 12 man keeper league, head-to-head points. My options are Ubaldo Jimenez in the 8th or Mat Latos in the 16th. I know Jimenez is a pretty good deal in the eighth, but does the value of Latos eight rounds later make him the guy to protect even though he’s not as proven as Jimenez?
– Travis, Austin, Texas

The old keeper conundrum facing so many people at this time of year. Do you go with the more valuable fantasy performer or the better value? First off, let’s attack the idea of which pitcher is more valuable.

Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 8.37 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, .209 BAA in 221.2 IP
M. Latos: 14-10, 2.92 ERA, 9.21 K/9, 3.78 K/BB, 1.08 WHIP, .217 BAAA in 184.2 IP

If we look solely at last seasons numbers, I’d be hard pressed to say that Jimenez was clearly the better pitcher. In fact, if we remove the W-L record from the discussion, it certainly appears that Latos pitched slightly better than Jimenez. Therefore, if that was all the data we had at our disposal it would seem to be a no brainer to keep Latos since his draft day cost would be eight rounds cheaper.

What about the place each hurler pitches? While Coors Field is no longer the launching pad it once was since the introduction of the humidor, it’s still a park that heavily favors offense. According to Bill James’ Park Indices, Coors was the best park in the NL in 2010 to score a run or hit a home run. Flip the situation over to Petco Park in San Diego where Latos pitches, and it’s almost like we are talking another language. Petco was the second worst park in the NL in terms of runs and it was 12th in homers in the NL. Given that, the advantage clearly goes to Latos – despite the fact that Jimenez and his “heavy” fastball has always performed well at home (in 2010 he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 96 Ks in 101.2 innings in Coors).

What about their health, a massive concern with hurlers (consider the case of Adam Wainwright)? We all know that any pitch can send a hurler to the doctor’s office, but if we are to simply consider the data with these two hurlers we’d have to conclude that Jimenez is the “safer” hurler. Ubaldo has thrown at least 198.2 innings each of the past three years, something only four other NL hurlers have been able to do (Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, Ryan Dempster and Tim Lincecum). As for Latos, as I related in The Verducci Effect, he has put forth two major innings pitched increases the past two years which is a  legitimate concern. He also tanked miserably at the end of last season (1-5, 5.84 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over his last seven starts), perhaps a sign he was worn out. Early reports this year are very positive however, and for what it’s worth, Latos is a pretty big kid (6’6, 225 lbs.) so maybe he’ll be just fine.

If I was sitting down at a draft table looking to roster hurlers in a re-draft league, I’d have Jimenez ranked ahead of Latos. At the same time, it would be as tough a decision as it would be deciding between whether I wanted Brooklyn Decker or Irina Shayk to be in my dreams tonight. Given the massive eight round advantage you pick up in your keeper format Travis with holding on to Latos, I think it’s a no brainer that you roster the hurler from the Padres.

What are your thoughts on Yunel Escobar at shortstop for the Blue Jays. Is he going to return to being productive with Toronto?
– Joseph, Sierra Vista, Arizona

Escobar was awful last season, kind of like that rancid peach you think you can still eat if you work your way around the bad parts, only to find out you were dead wrong. In 497 at-bats Yunel hit .256 with four homers, 35 RBI and a .655 OPS. It wouldn’t take much for him to improve on that effort, but I think there is much more to be mined here than slight improvement. Let me drop some knowledge on you as people seem to have forgotten just how good Yunel already has been.

In 2008, Escobar hit .288 with 10 homers, 60 RBI, 71 runs and two steals. In standard 5×5 scoring that left him as the 143rd best overall hitter and the 12th most productive shortstop.

In 2009 Escobar hit .299 with 14 homers, 76 RBI, 89 runs scored and five steals. That 5×5 fantasy effort left him as the 75th best fantasy hitter in the game, and the 7th best shortstop.

It’s not like Escobar has to do anything other than return to “normal” to return a massive amount of value given that last years down effort has relegated him to a current ADP mark of about 375.

Is there reason, other than his previously strong performances, to think he will return to relevance this season? Of course.

(1) Escobar is only 29 years old, hardly an age when people lose “it.”

(2) Toronto’s park is a solid one for offense as it was above average in 2011 in batting average, runs and hits, while it was the third best park to go deep in according to Park Indices in the AL.

(3) Escobar really wasn’t that bad last year – honest. Take a look.

2010: 9.9 BB-rate, 11.5 K-rate, 0.98 BB/K
Career: 9.4 BB-rate, 12.1 K-rate, 0.88 BB/K
Huh is right. He was actually better than normal in these three categories.

2010: 1.89 GB/FB, 18.0 LD-rate
Career: 2.02 GB/FB, 18.8 LD-rate
Huh again. His ground ball, fly ball and line drive rates were almost a dead on match for his career levels. So why was he so bad last year?

2010: 3.3 HR/F, .282 BABIP, .251 average vs. righties
Career: 7.6 HR/F, .314 BABIP, .293 average vs. righties
Escobar isn’t ever going to be a power hitter, he hits too many balls on the ground, but he should be able to  reach double-digit homers when his HR/F normalizes. You also have to think that he was a bit unlucky last year with a .032 point dip in his BABIP given that his G/F/L rates were the same as “normal.” It’s also odd to see his batting average drop by more than .040 points against righties. You have to figure that number will rebound.

Escobar will come cheap on draft day, and the numbers seem to indicate that a return to at least his 2008 level is immanently possible.

I’m in an auction draft for the first time, and I’m getting pretty nervous. Any advice for a newbie to the format?
– Eric, Los Angeles

Eric, welcome to the world of auctions. Once you get the fever for doing them it’s often hard to go back to traditional snake drafts because of the slower pace and the inability to have the same level of control over the players you can choose for your roster. Here are some general tips.

1 – Make sure you have a plan, understand the rules, and have a working knowledge of the player pool. You will not have time to check a magazine to find out if David DeJesus can help you in the steals department, you will have to know that information.

2- In terms of what strategy to employ, I wrote a simple introduction to the auction format in How to Do an Auction Draft. You’ll find a basic review of the simplest ways to attack an auction there.

3- Do some mock auctions if you can. I get made fun of all the time for doing mock drafts by my friends, but they are an invaluable tool if you ask me.

4- I’d also suggest listening in on how the “experts” do it. This Saturday and Sunday, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, the LABR auction drafts for the AL and NL will be carried live (for programming information see SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio). It can’t hurt to hear how the experts work their way through an auction.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s  minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest

I’ve got it all for you today.

First, a mailbag question.
Second, a brief discussion off my fantasy top-25.
Third, a reason to throw up on yourself.

Who wouldn’t want to read about all of that?

I posted my top-25 fantasy players for 2011 just about a month ago. I still like the list, though I might move a couple of guys up and down a few spots. Two main notes at this point after checking out the fantasy landscape. First, I’m shocked at the wide variance with Ryan Braun this draft season. I listed him at #3 overall, but I’ve seen him go as low as #8, the spot I took him in the K-BAD fantasy league over at KFFL. Obviously I was overjoyed to get him that late. Second, I still don’t think Adrian Gonzalez, who I had at #20 on my initial list, should be going in the top-10 overall, but his current ADP is 9th, and in the K-BAD league he went 6th. He’s going to have a hard time justifying that selection since he brings no speed on the base paths.

In my keeper league I can hold on to four players. I’ve settled on Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward and Ubaldo Jimenez. For my fourth spot I’m having trouble. Would you keep David Price, Adrian Beltre or Jayson Werth?

- Todd, Downey, California

I love the young talent in Braun and Heyward, and while I’m not sold on Jimenez duplicating his work from last season, he has to be considered one of the top-15 starters in 2011 so I’m fine with protection him as well. As for the other three that you have to choose from for the last spot, some thoughts follow.

Price: Previously I gave my sentiments on Price in Hot Stove: Still Simmering. You can read the article for the details, but I’ll boil my thoughts on the young lefty down to this – he was slightly fortunate last season, and despite some undeniable growth, I’d be surprised if he repeated his overall pitching line from last season.

Beltre: One of my favorite whipping boys, I’ve written about the new Rangers’ third sacker many times this offseason. In Insanity Reigns Supreme, I broke down how amazing it was that Scott Boras was able to coax so much dough out of the Rangers. I also broke down Beltre on the field and believe, for the 17th time, that the data says he is a good, but not great, option at third base. Don’t get me wrong, I have no issue at all with him being my third basemen in standard leagues, but I certainly would not draft him expecting a repeat of last years .321-28-102-84 effort.

Werth: Everyone loved Werth as a Phillie, but now everyone seems rather down on him as a National (I discussed the signing in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010). While h is current ADP is 52 according to MockDraftCentral, I’ve seen him fall below that in some drafts that I have participated in. Werth is leaving a good home yard, as well as a stacked lineup in Philly, so his counting numbers could suffer in Washington. Still, the past three seasons he has been pretty darn good with an average 5×5 line of .279-29-84-92-18. There’s little wrong with that.

So who would I keep? I don’t think there is any reason to keep two pitchers out of the four guys, so I automatically removed Price (plus I’m not high on him anyway). As much as I like Werth, I also don’t think it makes sense to keep three outfielders out of four players. That leaves me with suggesting you roster Beltre given your setup, even if I would prefer to roster Werth if it was an either/or decision.

Do you need another reason to hate Alex Rodriguez? In case you missed it because you spent all of last Sunday making out with your significant other and didn’t watch the Super Bowl, we were served up yet another reason to despise A-Rod. In his best “I’m a Roman Centurion home from battle’ moment, the cameras caught girlfriend Cameron Diaz feeding him popcorn. I threw up in my mouth a little bit. A-Rod found out that the cameras captured it and went “ballistic” demanding that no more shots of him were to be run on television. He got his way, but for this scribe, it didn’t come nearly in time as the vision of Diaz feeding A-Rod popcorn has been seared into my brain, and if you haven’t picked up on it yet, it’s a painful image that will haunt me for many moons. For more on the story you can click the link to A-Rod Furious at Super Bowl Candid Shot (it even has a picture so that you can make yourself nauseous as well).

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Who is the NL Cy Young?

Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.

To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:

Who is the NL MVP?

Who is the AL MVP?

NL Cy Young

Tim Hudson: The Braves’ ace was 15-5 with a 2.24 ERA on August 28th and he was steamrolling his way through batters on the way to the best season of his career. You can still make the argument that this was his finest season, but his last seven starts will leave a bitter taste in his, and the voters, mouths (2-4 with a 5.32 ERA an a 1.39 WHIP). Hudson finished the year with a career best 2.83 ERA that was 6th in the NL, and his 1.15 WHIP was his best mark since 2003 when he had a career best 1.08 mark. Hudson also struck out 139 batters, a 4-year high, though it was a total that was one less than Cubs’ closer Carlos Marmol (138).

Ubaldo Jimenez: At the break he looked like a shoo-in for the award with his 15-1 record and 2.20 ERA. In the second half though he reverted from the all-world ace he was early in the year to being the solid pitcher he has been for a couple of seasons as he had a 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 101 Ks in 94.2 innings. However, he was able to win only four games against seven loses, and I bet that “failure” to win games will doom him in the eyes of most voters even though it really shouldn’t. Ubaldo was still third in the league with 19 victories and 214 Ks, while his 2.88 ERA was 8th and his 1.15 WHIP tied for 8th. He also permitted a mere .209 BAA, the second best mark in the league to Jonathan Sanchez (.204).

Josh Johnson: Some might have forgotten this fact, but Josh Johnson led the NL in ERA with a 2.30 mark. As late as August 12th his ERA was 1.97, though the final five starts of his season saw that number rise to it’s resting point. Johnson’s season ended prematurely because of a back/shoulder issue, an as a result he threw just 183.2 innings. You had better be pretty damn special if you think you deserve the Cy Young Award with less than 185 innings pitched, and that task becomes impossible when you put up only 11 victories as Johnson did. Still, the guy led the league in ERA, had more than a K per inning (186) and finished the campaign with a WHIP of 1.11, 7th in the NL.

Mat Latos: The Padres youngster would have had a shot at finishing much higher in the final vote if he hadn’t hit the skids in the month of September when over five starts his ERA went from 2.21 to 2.92. Still, for a pitcher in his first complete big league season, Latos was tremendous. He was 10th in ERA, and 11th in strikeouts (189), while he was sixth in WHIP (1.08) and 5th in BAA. He also had the most consistently excellent 15 game run a pitcher ever had which you can read about in my By The Numbers piece.

As great as those four were, this is a two-horse race between Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay. It’s amazing how close the two were this season.

R.Halladay: 21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP

That’s pretty amazing, the closeness of the numbers, is it not? Here are some more.

R.Halladay: 7.86 K/9, 1.08 BB/9, 7.30 K/BB, 0.86 HR/9, 1.72 GB/FB
Wainwright: 8.32 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 3.80 K/BB, 0.59 HR/9, 1.68 GB/FB

Halladay is inching ahead herem but its still insanely close. I bet the caper will be the final three numbers listed next.

R.Halladay: 250.2 IP, nine complete games, four shutouts
Wainwright: 230.1 IP, five complete games, two shutouts

As great as Wainwright was, Halladay was just a little bit better, so no one should complain when he takes home the hardware.

6- Tim Hudson
5- Josh Johnson
4- Mat Latos
3- Ubaldo Jimenez
2- Adam Wainwright
1- Roy Halladay

By Ray Flowers

Early Award Returns

I’ll certainly go into much greater depth on all of the major baseball awards between now and the time that the season is completed, but I just wanted to give a few thoughts on the races at this point as the season marches, inexorably, toward the conclusion of the regular season (go Giants).

AL MVP

Main Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko
Hamilton will lead baseball in batting average (.361), and he is hopeful of a return to action from his rib issue on Friday. Still, the guy has appeared in only two games in September and just 130 on the season. Is that really an MVP worthy campaign? There has only been one MVP who appeared in fewer than 15 September games in a non-strike season, and that was Dick Groat of the Pirates in 1960. I know it would make a great story, but I can’t give a thumbs up to a guy who didn’t do a damn thing in the seasons most important month.

NL MVP

Main Candidates: Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto
CarGo and Tulo will likely cancel each other out. The anti-Hamilton, look at their numbers in September: Gonzalez (.412-5-26-24 with a 1.131 OPS), Tulowitzki (.299-15-40 with a 1.148 OPS). If that means the decision is left to Pujols and Votto you have to think the fact that Votto’s Reds are playoff bound will tip the scales in his favor in the eyes of most voters since Votto and Pujols have had nearly identical numbers this season: Votto (.325-37-111-104-16 with a 1.029 OPS), Pujols (.313-42-117-113-13 with a 1.015 OPS). Will Pujols’ history win out over Votto’s winning record?

AL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price, CC Sabathia
The best pitcher in the AL has been Felix Hernandez, though he is a mere 13-12 because of brutal run support (the Mariners scored seven runs while he was in the game in his 12 loses). Hernandez leads the league in ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), innings pitched (249.2), quality starts (30) and he is second in WHIP at 1.06 (Cliff Lee has a 1.02 mark). Still, no starting pitcher, in a non-strike season, has ever won the award with fewer than the 15 victories that Tim Lincecum posted last season.

NL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright
Hudson ha lost four of five decisions as his ERA has gone from 2.24 to 2.76. Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break but only 4-7 since. Johnson leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA but he pitched only 183.2 innings and won just 11 games. That leaves Halladay and Wainwright to finish 1-2, with Halladay likely to win the award despite nearly identical totals: Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP), Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson
Feliz was left in the bullpen when the club realized it had a hole there (he was slated to spend at least some time in the rotation), and all Feliz has done is have the best closing season by a rookie in league history with a record 38 saves in just 41 chances. He’s also posted a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings.
Jackson has played strong defense in center field while at the same time scoring a ton of runs (102). He’s also hit nearly .300 at .299, while adding 26 steals. Do you favor pitching or hitting?

NL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Jamie Garcia, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez
One of the strongest rookie classes in recent memory. As much as people seem to want to hand the award to Heyward, there are a couple of salient points that Heyward apologists have to deal with. (1) Sanchez has one more homer with 19, while he has knocked in 12 more runs (83) then Heyward. Heck, Sanchez is only batting .003 points lower at .276. How many people think Sanchez should win the award? That’s exactly why Heyward’s candidacy isn’t as strong as some profess. (2) Buster Posey has only two fewer homers and seven less RBI than Heyward despite appearing in 35 fewer games. Posey also has a .020 point lead in OPS, and he is a catcher. I’m admittedly biased as a Giants fan, but I just don’t get all this Heyward talk.

By Ray Flowers

History is at Hand

Jose Bautista is nearing a nice round number that will place him in elite historical company, while Yankees’ hurler CC Sabathia has already reached his magic number on the hill.

Jose Bautista has hit 49 homers, the most in baseball in 2010. I’m sure I will revisit this completely nonsensical season he is having at some point when it’s all wrapped up, but here are a few things to gnaw on until then.

First, he leads baseball in homers by a total of 10 (Albert Pujols is second with 39).

Second, Bautista hit 43 homers the past three seasons – combined.

Third, by my count, there have been 41 seasons in baseball history of 50 homers. There are only a few names that really stand out on that list, and they are Greg Vaughn (50 in 1998) and Brady Anderson (50 in 1996). Vaughn was a power hitter of some repute, he did blast 355 homers in his career including two other seasons of at least 40-homers, but his name still doesn’t fit in very well on the list. As for Anderson, he is likely the guy everyone will compare Bautista to in their end of the year write ups of the Blue Jays’ outfielder/third basemen. Anderson’s season was the most improbable homer season in history – until Bautista’s this year. Anderson had a career-high of 21 homers entering his 50 homer campaign (Bautista had never hit more than 16), but Brady never even remotely approached that level of effectiveness again with a secondary career best of 24. Makes you wonder about what Bautista will do for a follow up doesn’t it?

CC Sabathia is one of the stars of the game on the hill. He has won 156 games in his career – against only 87 loses (.642 winning percentage) – including at least 11 victories each season since 2001. By the way, he is the only pitcher in baseball who has won that many each of the past 10 seasons. CC has also struck out as many as 251 batters in a season, has been named to four All-Star teams, and he won the Cy Young Award in 2007 (he also finished in the top-5 two other times – 2009 in the NL with the Brewers and 2009 in the AL with the Yankees). Yet he had never accomplished what he did in his last start, and that is winning 20 games in a season.

With the advent of the 5-man rotation, pitch and innings counts, and teams just being flat out cautious because they have so much money invested in their arms, it’s fairly difficult, even if one pitches very well, to get to 20 wins. Figure this way. If you a guy makes 33 starts he has to win nearly 61 percent of his starts to get to 20 wins. In the case of CC, even with all his innings and that great winning percentage, it took him until his 10th season to pull off the trick. In fact, since the calendar flipped to the 21st century there have been a mere 35 twenty win seasons in baseball or an average of 3.5 a year. In the AL Jon Lester has 18 victories, while over in the NL a trio of hurlers are sitting at 19 – Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright – so one or more may still yet join Sabathia in the 20-win club.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Did you know that I’m tall (6’3″)? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don’t get up before the sun? I know that isn’t the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane “Ray facts” let’s get to the meat of this piece.

Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.

Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third – Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He’s also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know… Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he’s having a down season?

There isn’t a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.

Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey’s total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you’ve got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it’s Juan Uribe (66). Let’s keep building on the craziness. I haven’t even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI – Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.

Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.

The Giants’ Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs – one more than Justin Upton – and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).

Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.

Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn’t cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn’t count – at least in this scribes book.

By Ray Flowers

The HOF and Ubaldo Jimenez

On Sunday Andre Dawson was officially inducted into the Hall of Fame. An eight time All-Star who is one of only three men in big league history to hit 400 homers while also stealing at least 300 bases (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays are the others), Dawson also has one of the worst OBP (.323) of any player in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it’s the worst mark of any outfielder enshrined at Cooperstown, .020 points below the .343 mark of Lou Brock. Should Dawson have been elected to the HOF? I tackled that very question in The Case of Andre Dawson. If that piece doesn’t cause you some pause about whether or not the athletic outfielder should have been enshrined, perhaps Dawson vs. Alomar will prove to you, once an for all, that not only does Roberto Alomar deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but that Dawson’s credentials might be a little thin.

I actually wrote up a series of piece on players who were eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, and here are those links:

Edgar Martinez – Is there Room for a DH?
HOF: Tim Raines.
Is McGriff Hall Worthy?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?
HOF: Who Am I?

Any here are my final thoughts where I discussed the 2010 voting results.

HOF: What Should Have Been.

Has anyone pointed you toward one of the best sites on the internet? No, I’m not talking about something that has porn in it, you certainly already have your favorites bookmarked for your adult entertainment, or BaseballGuys.com (since you’ve already found it), I’m referring to Rumorzone.com. It’s a collaborative effort from Fanball.com, and we’re tracking all the latest rumors in the world of sports for the four major sports at that location (MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL). Don’t forget to bookmark it.

Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. There, I said it, and don’t for a second try and tell me you weren’t thinking the same thing. On June 7th, a mere eight starts ago, Ubaldo had a 0.93 ERA. Heck, on June 18th it was still 1.15. However, the past six outings haven’t looked anything like his first 14 trips to the hill. Here are the numbers:

7.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.73 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.68 K/BB

The ERA is horrific, the WHIP is terrible, and that walk rate is godawful leading to a decidedly sub par K/BB mark that is well below the big league average of 2.10.

So what happened? It’s called regression people, ever heard of it? Did you really drink so much of that Ubaldo Cool Aid that you actually thought he was going to challenge Bob Gibson’s NL ERA mark of 1.12? Come on now. Did you think he was gonna keep his ERA under 2.00 all year long? I got news for you, that’s only happened twice in baseball since the 21st century began (Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 mark in 2000 and Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 mark in 2005). Again, you kid right?

The truth is that Ubaldo is simply returning to the level of “dominance” instead of the “historic” pace that he flashed early on. He still has a 2.75 ERA, his WHIP is just 1.12, he has nearly a K per inning (120 in 134.1) and he is still 15-2. How rare is that combination? If he maintains that pace for 34 starts this season we’d be looking at something like 25 wins, 200 Ks and a 2.75 ERA. How many pitchers have reached all three of those levels since 2000? It’s a small group of — zero. If we go back to 1990 there still isn’t one member of the group. How about 1980? Still none. You have to go all the way back to to Ron Guidry in 1978 to find a pitcher who reach all three milestones (25-3, 1.74 ERA, 248 Ks).

The bottom line with Ubaldo is that you should cut the guy some slack. Still, I hope you listened when I suggested you sell high on the flamethrower from Colorado because that window for peak value in a trade has been closed completely.

By Ray Flowers

First Half Pitching Stars

We have a great tool called the Player Rater at Fanball. I write a weekly article where I breakdown the top-50 fantasy performers in the game, and you can find the actual Player Rater Tool by clicking on the link. This week I did things a bit different. Since we are at the half way point of the season I broke down the top-10 guys at each position, versus the top-50 overall, and you can read that breakdown at MLB Player Rater: Midseason Stars. In the current piece here at BaseballGuys I’ll break down the top-20 hurlers in the fantasy game as major league baseball gears up for the All-Star Game.

1- Adam Wainwright
He is second in the NL with a 2.11 ERA and a total of 13 victories, while he is second in innings pitched (136.1) and third in WHIP (1.00). The dude is a flat out ace.

2- Josh Johnson
All the early season talk of the #3 man on the list has obscured the fact that JJ leads baseball with a 1.70 ERA and the NL with a 0.96 WHIP. Also, he’s allowed more than one earned run just once in his last 11 starts (he gave up two runs on June 26th).

3- Ubaldo Jimenez
The numbers are spectacular highlighted by by his big league leading 15-1 record and his 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Clearly he’s not affected by the altitude in Colorado.

4- Roy Halladay
Halladay leads baseball with 148 IP, the third highest total in the NL in 15 years at the All-Star break, and his ratios are phenomenal (2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). So how is he only 10-7? Come on Phillies offense, get to it.

5- Billy Wagner
What’s up with that retirement talk Billy? There is no need to contemplate hanging them up given his outstanding work that includes 20 saves, a 1.21 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP an a .156 BAA in 37.1 innings.

6- Mat Latos
Did you know that he is third in baseball with a 0.97 WHIP? Latos also has a 2.45 ERA for the Padres, but the team will likely be cautious with him in the second half because of innings pitched concerns.

7- Mariano Rivera
Amazingly, the guy just never seems to slow down. Is he getting even better with age? His numbers suggest it might be possible: 1.05 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .137 BAA and 20 saves.

8- Rafael Soriano
His K-rate is well off the pace at 7.75 (career 9.68), but otherwise the rest of his performance has been pretty special including a 1.60 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and a stupendous 23-for-24 save conversion mark.

9- Jon Lester
The first lefty starter on the list, Lester overcame a slow start to produce a line that any starter in baseball would be proud of. Lester is 11-3 for the Sox, and ratios like a 2.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are rarely seen in the AL East.

10- Cliff Lee
The newest prize in the Rangers’ corral, Lee leads baseball with a 0.95 WHIP. He’s also posting an unfathomable 15.17 K/BB rate. The best mark in the history of the game for a hurler who qualified for the ERA title is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

11- Jose Valverde
He is 19-for-20 on saves and is sporting sparkling ratios of a 0.92 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. Also, how in the world is it possible to hold batters to a .125 average through 39 innings?

12- Heath Bell
The NL leader with 24 saves has a fine 1.88 ERA, though his 1.33 WHIP would be his worst mark since moving to San Diego (it was 1.21 in 2008).

13- David Price
The AL starter in the All-Star game, Price leads the junior circuit with 12 victories. It would be a shock if he were able to hold on to that 2.42 ERA, he just hasn’t pitched well enough to really deserve that mark.

14- Jonathan Broxton
Despite an irregular usage pattern – long periods of nothing followed by intensive work – Broxton has emerged with a continuation of his 2009 season, and that is a great thing. He has 19 saves, a 2.11 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and an impressive 12.91 K/9 mark leading to a striking 7.86 K/BB rate.

15- Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 and 38 saves the past two years, and just past the halfway point this season he has converted 23 of 25 chances. He also has an impressive 50 Ks in 37.2 innings, a total that goes along swimmingly with his 1.91 ERA.

16- Joakim Soria
No one pays any attention since he pitches for the Royals, but Joakim has 25 saves, the best total in baseball. He also has a 2.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, numbers that are slightly worse than his career averages (2.13 and 0.99).

17- Andy Pettitte
He always wins games so his 11-2 record isn’t a total shock, but his 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are since over the last four seasons he hasn’t produced an ERA better than 4.05 or a WHIP below 1.38.

18- CC Sabathia
With 12 victories he has already posted a 10th straight season of at least 11 wins. He’s also near the top of the AL in ERA (3.09) and WHIP (1.14) which is a yearly occurrence at this point.

19- Leo Nunez
He entered the year with question marks but he has answered them. His 1.55 GB/FB ratio is a career best (career 0.94) and his K-rate is way up to 9.08 (career 6.78). It’s almost as if he is a new pitcher (potential alien abduction?). The work has led to a 1.04 WHIP and 20 saves.

20- Jered Weaver
Don’t even try lying and say that Weaver was your choice to be leading baseball in strikeouts at the All-Star Break (he has 137, six more than Tim Lincecum). That 1.08 WHIP of his is also fourth in the AL. Only his 8-5 record has held him back from being more of a national story.

By Ray Flowers