Around the Horn: April 2, 2013

(1) Talk about the 2013 fantasy baseball season, LABR, Tout, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.

(2) Carlos Gomez overdrafted in 2013?

(3) Players who very well could exceed their draft day cost:

C Jason Castro, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Manny Machado, SS Stephen Drew, OF Michael Brantley, OF Chris Young, OF Justin Maxwell, OF Franklin Gutierrez

SP James McDonald, SP Edinson Volquez, SP Vance Worley, RP Jake McGee, RP Mike Adams, RP Rhiner Cruz.

By Ray Flowers

 

Winter Meetings Wrap Up

There were plenty of big names thrown around town, chief among them Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke, but in the end there were no earth shattering moves at the Baseball Winter Meetings. There were a handful of moves involving useful players however, so let’s take a moment to wrap up the meetings, and the week, by looking at some of that movement.

Joe Blanton, who I’ll have a write up on in the coming days, signed a two year, $15 million deal with the Angels. He’s no Zack Greinke but he’s a solid hurler, durable, and the terms of the deal certainly aren’t prohibitive by any means. Many think this is a bad deal based on his 4.71 ERA last season but I’m telling you his ERA should have been a run lower last season than it was. Solid.

Sean Burnett received a two year deal for $8 million from the Angels who are amassing one hell of a bullpen. Not just that, but I don’t know how the Angels convinced him to take so little after Jeremy Affeldt received 3/$18 million from the Giants. Burnett struck out 57 batters in 56.2 innings with an impressive 4.75 K/BB ratio, not to mention a superb 2.51 GB/FB ratio, for the Nationals last season.

Andrew Cashner failed to be the breakout candidate many hoped for last season as injuries limited him to a mere 46.1 innings. Still, he punched out 52 batters in 46.1 innings, and there is a lot of excitement about him starting for the Padres in 2013. Unfortunately, he’s unlikely to be ready for spring after a hunting accident. Apparently a friend slipped on the trip, fell, and sliced the thumb of Cashner with his knife necessitating surgery that will likely keep Andrew out of action for about three months. I’m not going to say it serves him right, but honestly, I just don’t get hunting, at all. If you need to eat that’s one thing, but what is the sport in shooting an animal that is just standing there? Sorry, just don’t get it.

Ben Revere was dealt from the Twins to the Phillies in exchange for Vance Worley and minor leaguer Trevor May. It seems very odd to me that the Twins would deal Denard Span and Revere within a week of one another (for more on Span see his Player Profile). Clearly, the Twins have no intention of competing in 2013 and are desperate for starting pitching. Revere, looking pretty much like a direct Juan Pierre clone, hit .294 with 40 steals in 124 games last season. He’ll never hit for power and may never get on base at a rate much better than the league average, but his speed makes him a superb play in the fantasy game. As for the Twins, their outfield is in shambles. It’s looking like Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe and… Brandon Hicks? GM Terry Ryan also stated that Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson will battle for a starting spot with Hicks, but that doesn’t really help matters much now does it. Can feel the excitement? The Twins, they receive May who has struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings in the minors, and if everything breaks right could be a #3 starter in the bigs. The Twins are hoping that Vance Worley is the real deal. Worley is coming back from elbow surgery in September as he had some loose bodies and a bone spur removed. Everyone is confident he will be healthy by spring. Worley owns some solid numbers – 7.71 K/9, 2.45 K/BB, 1.28 GB/FB ratio – even if nothing really stands out. Best case he’ll be a weak SP2, but more than likely the Twins would be happy if he emerged as solid third starter for them.

Nate Schierholtz signed a one year deal with the Cubs for a reported $2.25 million ($500,000 in incentives). Having watched him play for years that’s a strong signing by the Cubs. Nate is an elite defender who is a solid hitter with a bit of speed. He’s not an exciting fantasy option, but he’s an ideal 4th outfielder in the real world who could be quite effective if given consistent work. Speaking of the Cubs. Brett Jackson, another outfielder, has revamped his swing this offseason in an attempt to cut down his massive K-rate. He’s a 20/20 talent, especially if he puts the ball in play more effectively. Finally, the Cubs gave a 1-year, $2 million deal to former power hitter Ian Stewart (it looks like he will battle Luis Valbuena for the starting job). Only in America could a guy hit .183 withfive homers an a .561 OPS over 301 at-bats the last two years and get two million dollars.

Koji Uehara received a little over $4 million to ink a one year deal with the Red Sox. Born on the same day as my brother (04-03-1975), Koji is coming off a season in which he was limited to 36 innings because of injury. However, he was as good as ever when on the bump with a 10.75 K/9 mark and just three walks on the season leading to a 14.33 K/BB ratio. That 14.33 mark was the third best mark since 1885 in a season of 35 innings pitched (only Dennis Eckersley bettered it at 18.33 and 18.25 in 1989-90). Uehara also owns the all-time big league record with a 7.70 K/BB ratio (minimum 200 innings pitched). A strong signing if he can stay healthy.

Also… some links to my recent Player Profiles of a handful of players who have switched teams in the past week (those who deserve a bit more than the passing glance most of the players in this article received).

Dan Haren

Mike Napoli

B.J. Upton

Shane Victorino

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May16, 2012

(1) Why you should be looking to add Tim Lincecum.

(2) Why you should be looking to add Josh Johnson.

(3) Chris Young (shoulder) less than a week away from a return to action?

(4) Vance Worley to DL with elbow issues.

(5) Two hot catchers – A.J. Ellis and Jonathan Lucroy.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 4: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

R.A. Dickey (+72 to $258K in the DailyJoust salary)
Dickey had a rough start on April 18th (8 ER in 4.1 IP), but in his other three starts he’s posted a quality start each time out allowing a total of four runs. Overall his ratios aren’t that bad consider that one abysmal start (4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but it should be pointed out that he’s allowed at least one homer in each of his four starts and his total of six longs balls allowed is already a third of the way to his total of 18 allowed last year.

Alex Gonzalez (+24, $89K)
He is what he is. That means Alex is a middling average producer with no stolen base speed and decent pop in his bat. Hitting .254, seven points above his career mark, Gonzalez has also not stolen a base (shocker since he has only six the past five years. Alas, there is that power. With four homers and 12 RBI through 19 games for the Brewers he’s well on pace to better his totals of 15 and 56 from last season with a shot at numbers akin to his 2010 effort (23 HR, 88 RBI).

Carlos Gonzalez (+17, $120K)
Come on, were you really worried? I know that some of you were, you know who you are, so hopefully his huge effort last week will put those concerns to bed. Over his last six games CarGo has four homers, 11 RBI, seven runs scored and two steals. All of a sudden he is hitting .288 with four homers/steals, 16 RBI/runs in just 18 games of action. Elite thy name is Gonzalez.

Ramon Hernandez (+26, $105K)
A big couple of games for the aging catcher leave him with two homers, six RBI and three runs scored in his last three games. Alas, he’s still hitting a measly .241 on the year and he hasn’t walked once in 15 games. Really Ramon, not one walk? He can still be a productive bat when he plays, but the last three years he hasn’t played 100 games once. If not for Willin Rosario struggling so much (.194 with 12 Ks in 31 at-bats) Ramon might already be losing playing time.

Mike Minor (+76 to $293K)
In three games since giving up six runs in his first outing, Minor has gone 2-0 while allowing four runs on his way to three quality starts. Minor also has a 15:1 K/BB ratio in those three starts showing everyone why he was taken 7th overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves. He’s not quite on par with Brandon Beachy, but Minor’s star is certainly on the upswing.

Vance Worley (+68, $287K)
Worley has gone at least six innings in all four of his starts, an only one time has he allowed more than a run (he gave up four runs to the Mets in six innings). Stung by the long ball, he’s allowed four in four starts after giving up just 10 last season, Worley also has 27 punch outs in just 25 innings of work.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Chase Headley (-30, $80K)
Come on, you knew he wasn’t going to be able to keep up the pace. Over his last 10 games he has no homers and just two RBI, but on the year he has still produced 14 RBI and an .875 OPS. He has his issues, not the least of which being a ballpark that is going to keep his power numbers down, but overall this has been a pretty impressive start for Headley (see that .394 OBP).

Jason Heyward (-47, $67K)
With eight steals in 22 starts Heyward looks like a big time base stealing thief. Unfortunately, no one has ever thought of him in that light. Maybe 20-25 steals, but not 40+ like his early season base certainly suggests. Heyward has also gone deep just twice in 22 games, and his performance over his last 10 outings, other than the four steals, has left a lot to be desired (only seven hits, three RBI and four runs scored). Still, a heartening start.

Bud Norris (-53, $168K)
Eleven runs allowed in two outings will get everyone up in arms about your outlook. At the same time, Norris still had 12 Ks in those 11.2 innings, and four walks in that time isn’t an obnoxious number (seems like people over at Fleaflicker are plenty nervous though, just look at that ownership rate). The fact is, he just got pounded with his pitches in the strike zone leading to 19 hits. On the year he still has 22 Ks and just eight walks in 24.2 innings, solid numbers the both of them, and there is no way he’s going to allow four homers every two times he takes the hill.

Jose Tabata (-30, $55K)
Through 65 at-bats he has no homers and two runs scored. He’s also been caught on half of his six steal attempts. At the same time there has been some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel as he has raised his average from .111 to .231 over the last seven games as he has produced 11 hits. He still has an awful long way to go to get back to being the player who hit .299 with 19 steals in just 102 games in 2010.

Randy Wolf (-33, $165K)
Wolf was beat around for 11 runs in his first two outings, so allowing a mere six runs in his last two forays onto the bump is clearly progress. At best a 7.17 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 1.44 K/BB ratio says that Wolf should not be in your starting lineup. At worst it might be time to cut Wolf loose and replace him with someone else that at least won’t kill your ratios while he tries to figure out what ails him.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

 

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers