Around the Horn: May 12, 2011

(1) The walking wounded – Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Kendrys Morales.

(2) Poor Hong-Chih Kuo.

(3) Eduardo Sanchez the Cardinals’ closer?

(4) Russell Martin slumping.

(5) Dallas Braden, Chris Young out with shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 4, 2011

(1) Orlando Hudson (hamstring) to the DL. Logan Forsythe to replace him.

(2) Brandon Lyon imploding for Astros. Time to add Mark Melancon?

(3) Andre Ethier (elbow) on shelf. Hitting streak intact.

(4) Jonathan Broxton (elbow) shut down. Who will Dodgers turn to – Hong-Chih Kuo, Vicente Padilla or someone else?

(5) Scott Sizemore starting at 2B for Tigers.

(6) Francisco Liriano’s no-hitter.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 27, 2011

(1) Andre Ethier has record 24-game hitting streak.

(2) Dodgers have no clue in 9th inning.

(3) Carlos Santana really struggling

(4) Reliever closing in on returns – Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

The Curious Case of Vicente Padilla

Baseball is a wonderful game. It can make you cry sending you into the depths of despair when your team lets you down. On the flip side, the smile that emerges when your team emerges victorious — there’s not much that compares to that. Another wonderful aspect of the game is that it continues to bring forth intriguing stories. One of those story-lines as we get ready to kick off the second half of the 2010 season is The Curious Case of Vicente Padilla.

Padilla is an enigma. On his best days he is nearly impossible to hit with an assortment of hard, darting stuff, that is complimented by a 65 mph curveball. On his worst days he fails to throw strikes, looks lost on the hill, loses his focus, and can get battered by the opposition. This season for the Dodgers we’ve mostly seen the “good” Padilla. The question before us is this: which Padilla is gonna show up in the second half?

Since returning from the DL has had made five appearances. If we remove his first outing in which he gave up four runs in 5.1 innings, Padilla has pitched well enough to shame Clayton Kershaw. In those four starts, besides going 3-1, Vicente has lasted at least 6.2 innings each time, has allowed two or fewer runs each time (1.57 ERA), and has been electric with 27 strikeouts compared to a mere three walks. That’s pretty damn impressive.

Let’s take a look at Padilla’s work in 2010 compared to his career level of achievement.

2010: 8.73 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 5.40 K/BB
Career: 6.30 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 1.99 K/BB
Are you kidding with this? Pitchers don’t add two strikeouts to their career average in their 12th season at 33 years of age. The also don’t cut their walk rate in half. Furthermore, Padilla has never had K/9 rate above 7.70, has only one season above 7.0 the past eight years, and hasn’t seen a BB/9 mark below 3.15 since 2004. This data clearly points to his first half success being a fluke.

2010: 17/47/46 (Line drive, ground ball, fly ball rates)
Career: 20/46/34
This one is almost as crazy as the strikeout and walk rates. Padilla, who owns a 1.37 GB/FB ratio is his career, is all the way down at 0.80 this season. He’s also got a career low line drive mark (it’s never been below 18.4 percent), while his fly ball rate is astronomical (more than 12 percentage points above his career level). This clearly isn’t a change for the better. When that line drive rate increases, and his BABIP (.264) rises (it’s .301 for his career and has been over that mark each of the past four seasons), the ratios will adjust.

2010: 4.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Career: 4.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Padilla hasn’t posted an ERA below his career average since 2003. Think about that. For each of the past six years he hasn’t even been Padilla average which, by the way, is pretty poor. In fact, the past six years his ERA has been 4.74 which is worse than the league average of 4.40. As for his WHIP, he has been league average there for his entire career. He’s also failed to post a mark better than his career average since 2004 while each of the last three seasons he has been at 1.64, 1.46 and 1.43. He just isn’t going to be able to keep up his current pace, no way, no how.

Hopefully you’ve been paying attention. Vicente Padilla is on a wonderful hot streak right now that means he could easily be a valuable member of your starting rotation – for the moment. Sooner or later, and I’m betting sooner, his production will revert to his previous established level of mediocrity, so take my advice and play up his recent hot spell to deal him to an unsuspecting league mate who is unacquainted with the analysis we’ve just been through.

By Ray Flowers