Top-10 C for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll explain my rankings for the Top-10 Catchers for 2011.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

Top-10 3B for 2011.

Top-10 2B for 2011.

Top-10 1B for 2011.

My Top-10

Joe Mauer – The best hitting catcher in the game, period. Mauer hit .327 with 75 RBI and 88 runs scored, not to mention a .402 OBP, in 2010. Not worth the top-15 overall selection he was taken as last season, Mauer hit just nine homers, and if we remove his anomalous 28 homers season of 2009 we find that Mauer has averaged 9.4 homers in his other five seasons (I’m not counting his six homer effort in 107 at-bats in his first season).

Victor Martinez – The last six seasons that he has accrued at least 450 at-bats he has never failed to hit at least 16 homers or to produce at least 79 RBI. Toss in that he owns a career .300 batting average and you have yourself the second best fantasy catcher in baseball.

Brian McCann – Since 2006 McCann has hit at least 18 homers with 77 RBI each season. Moreover, since 2006, McCann leads the position in homers (107), extra base hits (283) and RBI (443). A rock solid option.

Buster Posey – If you watched the Giants all year, you’re sold on Posey. If you paid close attention in the playoffs, you should be sold as well. I worried about Posey’s ability to go deep heading into the year, but 18 homers in 406 at-bats would seem to waylay that fear. The young man can hit, and it’s not a stretch to think that he could match the production of V-Mart or McCann in 2011.

Geovany Soto – The Cubs’ catcher rebounded from a down 2009 to produce some solid totals. He nearly doubled Mauer with 17 homers, knocked in 53 runs, and hit a solid .280. Soto also was third at the position in OBP (.393) while he actually led catchers with a .890 OPS (Mauer was second at .871).

Carlos Santana – His season ended when he needed knee surgery, but he should be 100 percent by opening day. If he maintained his pace from last season and had 450 at-bats in 2011 he would hit .260 with 18 homers, 66 RBI and 69 runs scored. Given that his OBP was .401 last year, you have to think that his batting average could easily climb.

Kurt Suzuki – He didn’t match his breakout 2009 effort (.274-15-88-74) hitting .242-13-71-55, but he played more than 130-games for a third straight year and was still pretty darn effective for a catcher. He’s not an elite option, but he should still, easily, be a top-10 selection.

Matt Wieters – From the penthouse to the outhouse. After hitting .288 with nine homers in 354 at-bats as a rookie, Wieters slumped to .249 with 11 homers in 446 at-bats leading everyone to bail from the bandwagon as quick as they can. I’m not – I’m holding on for dear life. Wieters walked more frequently in year two while striking out less boosting his BB/K from 0.33 to 0.50. I like that. I also think his 15.4 line drive rate should improve in 2011, and with it his .287 BABIP, allowing that average to climb as well. Buy low on this guy.

Miguel Montero – Montero was a fantasy star in 2009 (.294-16-59-61) who failed to match his production in 2010 (.266-9-43-36). However, he had to come back from knee surgery and received 128 fewer at-bats, so his production actually wasn’t substantially different. At the same time he has only one season with more than 300 at-bats, one season of an average of .270 and just one season with more than 36 runs scored. I’d like to see another strong effort from him in 2011, but he is clearly still a top-10 option.

Mike Napoli – I’d rank him higher if I knew he would get the at-bats that he deserved. However, I just feel like that won’t ever happen unless he leaves the Angels. Napoli owns a strong .831 OPS in his career, and he has gone deep at least 20-times each of the past three years despite averaging a mere 353 at-bats a season. He may only have a .251 career average, but he has hit in the .270′s two of the past three years.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 12, 2010

(1) The Fanball Fantasy Drive – XM 147, Sirius 211. For more on the show make sure you give I’m a Star a read.

(2) The Home Run Derby – my thoughts.

(3) The All-Star Game.

(4) Jose Reyes potentially to DL with oblique injury.

(5) No timetable on a return for Victor Martinez (thumb).

(6) Red Sox trying to make nice with Jacoby Ellsbury.

(7) Brian Roberts headed out on minor league rehab assignment.

(8) Blue Jays might be offering their entire bullpen in trade.

By Ray Flowers

For the Record Books

Ubaldo Jimenez finally had a hiccup last night, and whether it was because of the flu or just the regression gods coming to the fore, the bottom line is that for the first time this season he allowed more than three runs in a game (six earned runs in 5.2 innings) to cause his ERA to skyrocket from 1.15 to 1.60. Ubaldo deserves all the accolades he is receiving this year, but I thought I would bring up a comparison that I’m fairly certain no one has ever made anywhere, so consider yourself pretty special if you are reading this (I think of myself as “special” all the time, though I might be the only one who shares that sentiment other than my mommy). Let me compare Ubaldo’s work this season with a mystery pitcher to show you just how good Pitcher X has been.

Ubaldo: 1.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.64 K/BB, .202 BAA in 107 IP
Pitcher X: 2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11.25 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, .191 BAA in 112 IP

Who is this marvelous Pitcher X? It’s Luke Gregerson of the Padres. We are obviously talking about Gregerson’s totals since the start of the 2009 season, but isn’t it pretty amazing that he has been so dominating in his time in the Pads pen? Not to continue to belittle Ubaldo in any way by comparing him to hurlers who have actually been at least his equal, but here is Ubaldo in another comparison.

Ubaldo: 1.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.64 K/BB, .202 BAA in 107 IP
Pitcher Y: 1.80 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.82 K/9, 3.77 K/BB, .201 BAA in 100 IP

Pitcher Y is the Marlins’ Josh Johnson. In case you missed it, and many have with all the press floated to Ubaldo this year, Johnson has done something that only two other men in the history of the game in the modern ERA have accomplished – he has tossed 8-straight games of at least six innings pitched with one or zero earned run allowed. The others to accomplish the feat are J.R. Richard who did it eight times in 1979 and Bob Gibson did it 11 times in his magical 1968 season. Take that Ubaldo.

It has nothing to do with baseball, but did you get a load of that match at Wimbledon that finally ended with John Isner defeating Nicloas Mahut 70 games to 68 in the fifth set? The match took 11 hours and five minutes, and the fifth set alone broke the all-time record for the longest match ever played. I haven’t had that much fun watching or playing tennis since I used to play home run derby at my local court with my friends. I was quite the power hitter by the way pounding balls into the pool. I never understood why that the court wasn’t a foot longer since every groundstroke I put any pace on always seems to go eight inches long.

How good is Stephen Strasburg? I spoke to his dominance yesterday in Around the Horn, June 23rd, but here is something I didn’t mention in that video – his total of 41 Ks in his first four starts breaks the previous four start record to start a career of Herb Score who struck out 40 batters in his first four starts back in 1955.

I’m going to central park tonight where I live to listen to some live salsa music. Think I should bust out my dance moves. You’re right, I’ll probably just drink some Sangria instead.

Entering play on Thursday, do you know who was first at the catcher’s position in homers (12) and RBI (38)? If you guessed this one you spend way too much time staring at box scores (don’t worry, I doubt you do it more than I do which tells you all you need to know about my exciting life). No, it’s not Victor Martinez (9 HR, 37 RBI) or Brian McCann (8 HR, 30 RBI), and you certainly know its not Joe Mauer since he has only gone deep three times in 236 at-bats. Nope, the answer is none other than John Buck of the Blue Jays. Don’t forget to pick up your jaw off the floor.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May27, 2010

(1) No new injury with Jacoby Ellsbury. A DL trip is still possible though. Victor Martinez also out with his toe issue.

(2) Carlos Zambrano has appendicitis? A report says he was taken to the hospital.

(3) Carlos Marmol on amazing K pace – a historic one.

(4) John Ely is the real deal for the Dodgers.

(5) Matt Lindstrom blows 1st save chance in 23 tries.

(6) B.J. Upton struggling terribly in May.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April26, 2010

(1) Ryan Howard backs up the money truck, and it’s fully loaded.

(2) Ian Kinsler to hit 5th upon return.

(3) Red Sox lineup in flux.

(4) Miguel Olivo gaining more looks at expense of Chris Iannetta.
*NOTE: After video was made, the club demoted Iannetta to Triple-A in the hopes that he will relax and rediscover his stroke.

(5) Jeff Suppan out of rotation, replaced by Chris Narveson.

(6) D’backs offense looks good with Johnson-Young-Reynolds.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Failures

Today was a good day. I accomplished all the writing I had hoped to get to, answered a ton of emails, had a strong podcast this morning with Kyle Elfrink, and closed down the day with a nice two hour shift of Live Advice. Before I drift off into the mist of Friday night, and a potential date (keep your fingers crossed), I thought I would wrap up the day with some notes from what is going on around the diamond, so here goes nothing.

Giants fans, here is your catcher update for the week. Bengie Molina is second on the Giants with eight RBI and he is batting .317 through 12 games. Amazingly, he also has two walks already, a breakneck pace for a guy who walked 13 times last year in 132 games (how pathetic is that and the corresponding .285 OBP?). Down on the farm the heir apparent, Buster Posey, is batting .373 through 15 games. Buster also has eight walks against nine strikeouts helping him to post a .457 OBP and a .949 OPS. There is no doubt that Posey already has a better approach at the dish than Molina, but Molina has enough power at the plate, and works very well with the staff on defense, so don’t be at all surprised to see Posey continue to toil away in the minors for a while unless there is an injury with the Giants.

The A’s Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .215 with .308 SLG and a .572 OPS in his first 17 games with his new club. Some other disturbing numbers with KK follow. (1) He is hitting .056 with RISP (1-for-18). (2) He is batting .156 with runners on base. (3) Fifty-eight of his 66 ABs this season have come out of the cleanup spot. The A’s finally dropped him to sixth in the order the other night.

Manny Ramirez has been placed on the DL with a calf injury. It’s being called a strain so let’s hope that 15 days on the sidelines will be enough to cure him. Xavier Paul has been recalled from the minors to take his roster spot, though it looks like Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson will likely take Manny’s place in the everyday lineup. None of those three have close to the presence of Manny, and none figure to be able to match his early season work at the dish either (.415 with a 1.159 OPS through 13 games). I really went out on a limb with that statement didn’t I?

The Red Sox have been about as successful throwing out attempted base thieves this season as I have been trying to convince beautiful ladies to go out with me. Let’s just say neither of us has had a high success rate, but I would have to think my mark is better than the what the Red Sox have been getting from Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek (the Sox have thrown out just one of 38 steal attempts). The rumor is that the Sox have an interest in bringing Chris Snyder out east to join their club. Of course, this won’t happen for a while as the D’backs can’t afford to move Snyder at least until Miguel Montero returns from his knee injury. Snyder has thrown out just 25.9 percent of base stealers in his career, and is only 2-for-12 this year (16.7 percent), but the Sox are fairly desperate at this point because of their inept duo.

Ryan Zimmerman is out of the lineup on Friday after injuring his other hamstring. He also figures to miss Saturday’s game, but the belief is still that he should be good enough to go come next week. Cristian Guzman will continue to fill in with Adam Kennedy at second and Ian Desmond playing short.

Ben Zobrist was given a 5-year deal that could be worth up to $32.5 million dollars after last year’s breakout season. Apparently he’ll get about $18 million guaranteed with a couple of option years that could take the deal up to that original total. The Rays aren’t usually wrong with their talent evaluation, and they certainly have to be proactive given their financial situation, but that seems like a fair bit of loot to lavish on a guy who has only one full big league season under his belt.

Finally, here are a couple of links to stories I wrote on Friday.

What are the Cubs thinking with their move of Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen? Impact Report: Gorzelanny/Silva/Zambrano.

For those of you who have a special place in your heart for hockey, here is a quick jaunt around the frozen pond where I discuss all the first round playoff matchups. Frozen Pucks.

By Ray Flowers

April 8: Baseball Notes

I’m all over the place today, but what better way is there to be when you want to read about everything that is fantasy related in the first week of the baseball season?

The average price for a major league ticket went up 1.5 percent this year to $26.74. That number pales to what is happening in Minnesota where the new stadium, and Joe Mauer’s $184 million deal, have helped lead to a 45 percent jump in ticket prices over last year to $31.47. The cheapest average ticket in baseball belongs to the D’backs, In addition if you are a fan of the NL West you’re in good shape – two of the six teams in baseball that saw their ticket prices go down for 2010 are the Padres (15.4 percent) and Giants (1.8 percent).

Bronson Arroyo allowed one run over eight innings against the Cardinals on Thursday. You may want to sit down before you read this, but according to Stats Inc., since July 10th of last year Arroyo has the best ERA in baseball for any pitcher who has tossed at least 100-innings at 2.01.

Frank Francisco blew the Rangers game on Thursday as he picked up a blown save and the loss as he allowed the Jays to score three times. Earlier in the game Neftali Feliz needed 13 pitches to strike out the side in his lone inning of work. It’s way too early to be talking about a changing of the guard in the 9th inning, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind.

The Yankees have been estimated to be worth $1.6 billion. You’ll only need to sell the Pirates ($295 million) five times to get close to that number.

Jonny Gomes had a walk-off homer on Thursday. Reds, please give this guy 500 at-bats. If you do, I can almost guarantee that he’ll sock 30 dingers.

Ian Kinsler is starting to make me nervous. He had a second cortisone shot today, meaning his goal of getting back on the field by mid week next week may or may not happen.

Victor Martinez likes hitting early in the year before his body gets beaten up from the rigors of catching. In April, his career batting average is .321 with 19 homers and 77 RBI in 126 games.

Don’t look now, but Magglio Ordonez has a 16-game hitting streak dating back to last season, and he has produced at least two hits in 6-straight outings. Adding his 7-for-14 start this season to his work from his last 28 games from last season nets you a .446 average. I don’t care if he hits as many homers as Juan Pierre if he can stay within 25 percent of that mark. Hell, over his last 63 games he is batting .383. Astounding.

Speaking of Mags, care to see my thoughts on the Tigers for 2010? You can also see a really serious picture of me if you click on the link to Tigers’ 2010 Season Prediction Roundup.

Vernon Wells hit his fourth homer of the year on Thursday to become the first Blue Jay in history to hit four homers in the first three games of the season. Wells hit only five homers in his final 64 games last season.

Dontrelle Willis allowed two runs over six innings on Thursday and hit 93 mph on a couple of fastballs. There is a caveat, it was against the Royals, but he walked only two batters – a very positive sign. I highly doubt he will be fantasy relevant in ’10, but it would certainly be a great story for baseball if he was.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan. 15, 2010

In my look around baseball today I’ll discuss a myriad of topics that are in the news. (1) Who will Johnny Damon signs with? (2) Matt Kemp/Chad Billingsley agree to deals with Dodgers. (3) Adam LaRoche officially signs with D’backs at the expense of Eric Byrnes. (4) Orlando Hudson still teamless. (5) Ben Sheets and Derrick Turnbow try to convince teams they are worth signing. (6) Does Carlos Delgado have anything left? (7) Indians catching situation.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Catchers

To be truthful, and everyone knows I’m nothing if not honest, I went to the bathroom today and grabbed the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide for a quick read. As I perused the magazine I started looking at my top-10 selections at each position and thought – I bet their would be some value to reviewing how accurate my predictions were last season. With that, I thought I would plow through each position on the diamond over the next while doing just that. Today, I’ll start with the catchers, and look for the other reviews soon as I move through each position.

* Note: These projections were rendered in January of 2009, so keep that in mind if some of them seem a bit off in retrospect.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Russell Martin
4. Geovany Soto
5. Victor Martinez
6. Bengie Molina
7. Ryan Doumit
8. Kelly Shoppach
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Mike Napoli

Now you know why I suggest skipping on taking catchers early in a draft.

Of that group, I was dead on with the top-2, of course that wasn’t too hard to predict. After that, it got spotty in a hurry.

Martin really wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be even though he had full season lows in homers (seven), RBI (53), runs (63) and average (.250). Honestly he wasn’t, he was just really unlucky. I’m looking for a nice rebound effort in 2010 – he should come cheaper than he should.

Soto was a total flop, due to injury and the fact that he simply wasn’t as good as he appeared to be in 2008. Simple really.

V-Mart was a remarkable comeback story after an abysmal 2008 effort (.278-2-35 in 266 ABs). All he did was rebound to his established levels hitting .303-23-108, but it was still a wonderful season thanks to full health.

Molina continues to do his thing, and do it well despite being the slowest man on Earth. He was basically the Giants second best hitter behind Pablo Sandoval as he hit a career best 20 homers while knocking in at least 80-runs for the third time in three years in a Giants uniform.

Doumit was injured and never really able to get going last season. He isn’t the .318-15-69 hitter he was in ’08, but he also isn’t the bum that hit only .250-10-38 last year.

Shoppach was supposed to flourish behind the dish when the Tribe eventually traded V-Mart. Well they traded Martinez all right, but Shoppach wasn’t able to take advantage of anything as he fell to 12 homers and 40 RBI a year after hitting 21 long balls with 55 ribbies. He did lose 81 at-bats in 2009, and that certainly didn’t help. Neither did his .214 average.

Iannetta hit only .228, this after hitting .264 in 2008, and he also lost two homers and 13 RBI from his 2008 effort (18 HR, 65 RBI). Chris was given 44 fewer at-bats thanks to a late season surge at the dish by Yorvit Torrealba so the power numbers would have likely been right there if he had been given the same opportunity.

Napoli wasn’t at his best either. First off, Jeff Mathis continued to eat into his playing time. Secondly, was limited a but by injury, though he still was able to post 155 more at-bats than in 2008. As a result there was little difference in his homers (20 and 20) or RBI (49 and 56), but obviously the rate at which he produced them dipped a ton.

So there is my list at the catcher position. I know it doesn’t look great in retrospect, but then again, I always preface my rankings at this position saying that there is no accounting for the injuries and wear and tear on the body for the men who pull on the tools of ignorance.

By Ray Flowers

Around They Go

The merry-go-round continues to spin as we approach MLB’s trade deadline on Friday. In today’s column we’ll simply run through some of the names that are in the news. I can’t be the only one who finds this alternative invigorating and frustrating as hell can I? I mean we hear rumor after rumor but often fail to come to any type of resolution with a boatload of these players who end up staying right where they are. Let’s hope this year sees a lot of movement (I’ll be writing about these things all day on Friday in my running Trade Deadline Diary).

The Indians have already moved Ryan Garko to the Giants, you can read about the deal in Around the Horn. The question now becomes do they try and also unload Cliff Lee and/or Victor Martinez? Depending on which source you read, chances of both being moved may be as high as 50/50. The bidding should be pretty strong considering that Lee is probably one of the 10 best lefties in the game while V-Mart is one of those rare catchers who can be a difference maker at the dish. The Red Sox are said to be heavily involved in talks for Lee as they are apparently unlikely to get Roy Halladay given that they would likely have to overpay to get a pitcher from a divisional foe.

Why would the Blue Jays announce to the world that they would explore potentially dealing Roy Halladay if they were just going to ask for half of every team’s young hurlers in any potential deal? Couldn’t they have just done that behind the scenes and spared us all the palace intrigue since it appears no better than a 50/50 shot that he will be moved.

Brett Favre won’t play, at least according to offseason rumor #312. Let’s hope that he won’t call a press conference to state that his last retirement press conference was real and that all the media should just refer to it if they need a quote for their columns.

Nick Johnson is still on the market, but with Adam LaRoche and Ryan Garko already with new clubs, who is still in the market for a first baseman? The team was hopeful of acquiring two potentially strong prospects for Johnson, but the impending free agent will likely have to be sold at a discount unless the Nats want to lose him for nothing at the end of the year. Someone should be interested, after all the man is hitting .295 with a .407 OBP this season. Don’t let his .405 SLG concern you – at least that’s what the Nationals will be telling other clubs.

Ian Snell continues to be on the Yankees radar. In six minor league starts the man has a 0.97 ERA and 47 Ks in 37.1 innings. Given all the money they have at their disposal, why don’t they just offer to pay everything left on Snell’s salary for this year and next and just float some mid-level prospects the Pirates way? In other Pirates news, they seem to be willing to sit pat with Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson. Apparently they only trade fantasy all-stars and not merely solid major leaguers. If they do move Sanchez, the Giants would love to be the recipient of the .300 hitting second basemen given that their second basemen have combined to post a .585 OPS this year. That’s just embarrassing.

The Mariners have “officially” announced that Jarrod Washburn is available on the trade market. Did I miss something? Since when do teams “officially” put someone on the market? Is there a website I can visit? Given the proliferation of the news media, virtually no major move occurs without the story leading so that we are made aware of it well before an actual deal happens. Take Washburn for example. We knew this guy was on the trade market about two months ago, but it’s good to know that the Mariners are going to do what everyone expected them to do all along.

By Ray Flowers