In this edition of Around the Horn (ATH) I’ll discuss the signings of Joel Pineiro (Angels), Doug Davis (Brewers), Octavio Dotel (Pirates), Joe Blanton (Phillies), Vincente Padilla (Dodgers), Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers) as well as situations with Aroldis Chapman and Geovany Soto.
By Ray Flowers
Today, I’ll take a look around MLB. (1) The latest on Carlos Beltran’s knee surgery. (2) Brad Lidge has second surgery this off-season. (3) Adam LaRoche signs with D’backs. (4) Josh Johnson wants 4 years. Will he get it? (5) Johnny Damon to Braves? (6) Joel Zumaya agrees to deal. (7) Jermaine Dye to Cubs? (8) Dodgers need starting pitching.
By Ray Flowers
Thursday is an odd day. It’s the middle of the week and it certainly has a palpable feel to it as the anticipation of the potential fun of the weekend starts to seep into ones consciousness. Maybe that’s why I’m all over the map today.
NL Playoff Thoughts
So sad to see the Dodgers fail to advance to the World Series. Not. I said it all along – there was no way a team that was counting on guys like Randy Wolf and Vincente Padilla could make the World Series. For the sake of Philly fans hopefully my other prediction that they wouldn’t be able to win the World Series with Brad Lidge pitching the ninth won’t come true. We’ll certainly have a chance to find out.
That Shane Victorino kid is a player. Did you see that sweet stroke on that long home run he hit last night? Beautiful.
Thank goodness the offense for the Phillies is so strong, because for all his production, that Jimmy Rollins is an out making machine of epic proportions. I know he produces strong fantasy 5×5 numbers each year, but my goodness does he rack up the outs. He owns a .286 OBP in 120 plate appearances in his playoff career, and this season he posted a simply hideous .296 OBP. Since he was awarded a full-time job in 2001, Rollins leads baseball with 4,496 outs, 219 more than the next guy (Orlando Cabrera). Last time I checked getting on base and avoiding outs was the name of the game for a leadoff hitter. Averaging 109 runs per 162 games in his career, can you imagine how many runs Rollins would have scored if he merely gotten on base at a league average rate?
Random Baseball Thoughts
At least we know that The Sporting News isn’t populated by idiots as they awarded Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke their NL and AL Pitcher of the Year awards. I expressed the same views a while back in my NL Cy Young Race and AL Cy Young Race pieces. Now we’ll have to wait and see if those that vote for the Cy Young award are as smart as TSN and myself.
Steve Phillips of ESPN was recently outed in the press for having an affair. I know we are all about 24 hour news nowadays, but really, is that any of our business? I say we leave the guy and his poor family alone.
The Mets finally got some good news after a dreadful season where seemingly everyone on their roster spent at least a night in the hospital. It’s official, the Mets actually made money off the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, $48 million worth to be exact. Finally, some good news.
If Bobby Valentine ends up returning to the States to manage the Indians, will he bring with him his Super Mario Brothers’ disguise?
Brandon Inge, a tremendous human being who goes out of his way all the time to help pretty much any charity that contacts him, fell flat on his face in the second half this year because of a wonky knee as he hit just .186 after the All-Star game. Turns out things were worse than we thought. Both of his knees were hurt. In fact, Inge will have to undergo surgery on both knees this offseason, though he should be ready by the start of the season. This is one guy who is in your corner Mr. Inge, even if I would be extremely reluctant to place my faith in you in standard mixed leagues.
Football Thoughts
Darrius Heyward-Bey is ninth in receptions — on the Raiders. He has two receptions on the season. Another stellar draft selection by the Raiders.
My over/under on Michael Crabtree this week, his first NFL game, is 27 yards. Any takers?
Am I the only one that found it laughable that during the Patriots annihilation of the Titans over the weekend that they actually put a “countdown to the Super Bowl” clock on the television screen? It was something like 111 days. How dumb is that?
Why is there a rule that NFL teams have to share injuries with the public/press, a rule they openly flaunt? Have the Patriots ever been truthful with their list? If you think they have, guess what, I got this new fangled elixir that helps to attract hot ladies to average looking guys. How many bottles you want?
By Ray Flowers
I know football season is upon us so I’ll touch on a few things at the bottom of the piece about the pigskin, but before I get to that I have a few thoughts to put forward about the game on the diamond.
Kenji Johjima will end his professional baseball playing days back in Japan after he decided to opt out of the final two years of his contract with the Mariners. Like the true gentleman he always conducted himself as while in the States, Johjima simply asked the Mariners to release him from the remaining two years left on his contract as he left $16 million on the table to return to Japan. “He walks completely on his contract here, and we start fresh,” agent Alan Nero said. “He’s made this decision without regard to financial consequence. He’s a free agent in Japan, and I’ll negotiate the best offer I can.” Kudos to a pro athlete actually following his heart and not being all about the money. Clearly, Scott Boras would never take Johjima on as a client.
Kendry Morales had a whopping 34 homers this season, this after hitting a grand total of 12 in his first 377 at-bats with the Angels in a great effort. Shockingly, only four of those homers came against lefties.
I’m still trying to figure out how Vincente Padilla has posted a 0.63 ERA over his two post-season starts. If you know how, drop me a line.
With backup middle infielders making multi-millions of dollars, isn’t it odd that hitting coach extraordinaire Rudy Jaramillo is in line to become the highest paid coach in the game if he signs with the Cubs for a reported $800,000 a year? Doesn’t that seem out of whack to you? Certainly does to me. The hitters have to have the talent, but a hitting coach can make a massive difference in the mindset and approach of hitters, to say little of their ability to help effect physical changes as needed. I draw the parallel of putting a supercharger in a Ford Focus. It would be fast as all hell once it was able to put the power to the pavement, but until a different suspension and setup was in place the extra power would do no good because the tires would simply go up in smoke.
Football Notes: Week 6
Did you catch the Patriots vs. Titans game over the weekend? I love the Patriots old look uni’s, and check out the final score of that game, a bloodbath if there ever was one: 59-0. That score matched the largest margin of victory since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Don’t worry, there were still two highlights in this game for the Titans. (1) Nate Washington had one catch that went for (-22) yards. Yes, (-22) yards. He took a pass, switched directions a couple of times, and basically tried to be like that 10 year old kid who thinks if he keeps running long enough sooner or later a hole will become available and he’ll take it to the house. (2) Before he was relieved by Vince Young, Kerry Collins completed two of 12 passes for (-7) yards. Young attempted two passes in relief and both were incomplete though one did end up in the Patriots arms for an INT. Luckily neither QB was sacked, though a (-7) in the net passing category is still abysmal for any team that isn’t made up of seven year olds.
The Saints are 5-0 and suddenly looking like one of a handful of teams that can legitimately be considered Super Bowl contenders. They have won all of their games by at least 14 points and became just the fourth team since the NFL-AFL merger to have seven different players score a touchdown in a single game in their 48-27 thrashing of the Giants in Week 6.
By Ray Flowers
I hate the Dodgers. Always have, always will. In fact, if I met the woman of my dreams, and I mean she was perfect, yet her one flaw was that she was a Dodgers fan — I don’t know if it would work out. I loathe that team, have since I was old enough to understand baseball, and as a lifetime Giants fan that will never, ever change. Therefore, it pained me to watch the Dodgers/Phillies game.
Pedro Martinez was flat out dealing in Game 2 of the NLCS as he held his former team, the Dodgers, to a mere two hits in seven innings of scoreless work. He may barely be able to hit 90 mph on the radar gun, but that man has a better understanding of how to pitch than about 95 percent of the men out there. Too bad the bullpen blew his effort in the eighth inning when manager Charlie Manuel called on five different arms to record three outs which they did but only after they allowed three hits, two walks and two runs. I know I bag on Manuel all the time, but really, how couldn’t I? Five pitchers in one inning? Talk about over managing.
Vincente Padilla looked great today holding the Phillies to four hits and one run over his 7.1 innings to help the Dodgers even up the series with the Phillies. Still, I can’t be the only one who found it odd that the TBS announcers kept talking about him like he was the second coming of Don Drysdale. His stuff can certainly allow him to dominate, but come on now.
Anyone else looking forward to the weekend? For some reason it just seemed like this week would never end. Kind of reminds me of a horror movie with Michael Myers of Halloween fame. Come to think of it, it’s time to pull out the Original Halloween, the one from the late 70′s done by John Carpenter, and give it my yearly viewing. If you haven’t see it you must – for my money it’s the best horror film ever made, right up there with Psycho and the original Texas Chainsaw Massacre.
The day after my Stephen Jackson piece, I’m still 100 percent what I wrote in Captain Jack? I Think Not.
I’m already missing daily baseball (I love the playoffs, but only one or two games a day just doesn’t cut it for me). Something about the rhythm of the game just gets to me. The worst part is opening up the paper each day, yes I still walk outside in my slippers into the cold morning air to pick up an actual paper, and not seeing box scores. As a true fan of baseball, is there another way to more closely connect with the game than to pour through copious amounts of box scores? Not only does it take me back to my youth and discussions with my father about who was better than who, it just gives me something to do when I’m eating Wheaties for breakfast. I have to pause while I wipe a tear away.
Playoff Bullpens
I want to thank John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle for pointing out the following facts. Mr. Shea noted that in the playoffs, at least this season, teams have only been as strong as their closers. Through the first round of the playoffs, the stark contrast between the have’s and the have not’s is pretty astounding.
During the regular season, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street and Ryan Franklin had a save conversion rate of 90 percent as each man recorded at least 35 saves. How did they do in the playoffs? They were dreadful: 0-4, 10.13 ERA, 3.25 WHIP with four blown saves in just eight innings of work. Putrid isn’t a strong enough word. Do in no small part to each man’s failures, they are all sitting at home eating Doritos and drinking Red Bull right now.
How did the four closers on the winning teams do? How about a 100 percent conversion rate on saves with a 0.87 ERA in 10.1 innings.
Pretty easy to say which “position” was the most valuable one in the first round of the playoffs. Makes me long for the days when men were men and they actually pitched a full nine innings.
By Ray Flowers
With Game 163 on the docket tonight, playoff fever is in the air. But before we totally succumb to that level of trepidation and elation, I thought I would hit on a few of the storylines from the regular season that popped into my noggin’ today.
Andrew Bailey isn’t getting a lot of pub when it comes to the AL Rookie of the Year award, and you can thank the fact that he played half his games in front of about 11,000 people a night out in Oakland. If he pitched for the Yankees or the Red Sox he would be a household name. Bailey saved 26 games for an A’s team that won only 75 contests, and along the way he posted a 1.84 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and a strong 9.83 K/9 mark. How many hurlers posted an ERA below 1.90 with a WHIP below 0.90 and racked up at least 25 saves this past season? The answer is one – one. Mariano Rivera had a 0.90 WHIP and Trevor Hoffman had a 0.91 WHIP. They were close, but no cigar.
Homer Bailey may have finally established himself at the major league level. Over his last seven starts he went 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 42 Ks over 43.3 innings pitched. He still hasn’t really solved those control issues (3.95 BB/9 in that time), but he may just have picked up enough about the art of pitching to get by with his above average stuff.
Chris Coghlan finished sixth in the NL batting race hitting .321 as a rookie for the Marlins. Not only was he a tremendous option for his overall work – he was actually flat out amazing over the second half of the season as he hit a Joe Mauer-like .372 over his final 72 games covering 304 ABs. Moreover, if we remove May when he was finding his legs in the bigs, Coghlan hit .338 over his 438 ABs. Not a bad rookie season Mr. CC.
Pablo Sandoval has got to be 30 pounds overweight, and I swear to my maker that he is off balance on literally about 50 percent of his swings, not to mention that he obviously went to the Vladimir Guerrero school of ‘if it’s in the air I’m going to swing at it.’ Despite all that, and the fact that he entered 2009 with only 145 big league at-bats, the Kung Fu Panda was second in the NL in the batting race (.330) while socking 25 homers, knocking in 90 runs and finishing seventh with a .943 OPS. I know it’s hard to believe, but I’m telling you this kid has a lot to learn about hitting. I don’t know if that means he will improve upon his current level of production, but he can certainly improve his technique and approach, and that has to be one scary thought for hurlers.
Vincente Padilla came over to the Dodgers after going 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with the Rangers. I, for one, though this was a desperate move. I still think it was, but the fact of the matter is that it has certainly paid dividends for the Dodgers who got some terrific work from the righty in his eight appearances (4-0, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). In his last start he lasted seven innings against the Rockies striking out a season best 10 batters, and as a result he will apparently start Game 3 of the first round of the playoffs for the Dodgers. It certainly would help the Dodgers outlook immensely if they were able to get the “real” Chad Billingsley in the playoffs after he struggled pretty heavily down the stretch with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over his last 14 appearances (he did last 12 innings in his last two starts, but he went 0-1 with a 3.75 while walking nine batters). Don’t know about you, but I simply cannot count the Dodgers as a legitimate World Series contender if they are counting on Padilla to be their third starter in the playoffs.
Lastly, if you want some info about Game 163 pitting the Twins against the Tigers, give Around the Horn a read.
By Ray Flowers
Besides me, who else is counting on Oliver Perez to have a big second half? From time to time I write about my National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) team, and that league consists of 15-teams with 30 players per roster. Given the depth of the penetration into the player pool, there are always a handful of players on each roster that might cause someone to pause if they are used to traditional 10-12 team leagues. So before you think – Ray is a doofus – realize we are talking about some pretty deep rosters here. Back to Oliver Perez.
Perez is one of the names that I picked up off waivers this season. A risky play? For sure as the man walks more batters per nine than just about any starter in the game, but oh does he look dominating when he is on. Problem is, that rarely occurs. Here’s to hoping it occurs, more often than not, the rest of way. That might be a fairly large wish though — perhaps I’ll leave that wish for the tooth fairy.
Why did I grab Perez? Well, after Andy Sonnanstine seemed to forget that the name of the game wasn’t to allow a run per inning (he has a 6.61 ERA), and Ian Snell thought he would try to pitch his way out of Pittsburgh with some awful work (5.36 ERA, 1.62 WHIP), I realized I needed something other than a staff consisting of names like Jamie Moyer. So I took a shot an picked up Perez, weeks ago, in the hope that he would come through. What other waiver-wire guy in a 15 team league has k-per-inning potential?
Another hurler with a similar skill set down to the potentially prolific K-rate as well as the atrocious walk rate is Brandon Morrow of the Mariners who we also picked up on the cheap off the waiver-wire (by the way, isn’t the picture above one of the best you have ever seen? For those of you that don’t know – a form of rookie hazing in baseball is having the youngsters carry the veterans gear, often in things like little girls backpacks). Possibly the only pitcher in baseball who has a more difficult time throwing strikes than Perez, Morrow has thrown 174 innings in his career while waling 115 batters leading to an embarrassing average of 5.95 walks per nine innings pitched in his brief career. Of course, his stuff is untouchable as his K/9 mark of 9.62 is superb. Obviously the kid has talent to burn, but until he starts throwing strikes more consistently he will be maddening to own (he should return from the minors to make a start of July 25th if everything goes according to plan).
The third arm in our Trifecta of Terror is Joba Chamberlain (and yes I’m still not sure if the terror will be most acutely directed toward opposing batters or my blood pressure). Joba clearly hasn’t performed as hoped for in his transition to the starting rotation as he has only four victories, a 4.25 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP through 17 starts this year. Still, his K/9 rate is 7.89 which is a strong mark, and if you add in his work out of the bullpen he has a 9.70 K/9 mark over 213.1 career innings. However, like the other two mentioned above, he is walking far too many batters, though by comparison his 4.25 BB/9 mark actually isn’t that awful.
So is rostering these three guys a risk worth taking? My club need wins and strikeouts, and these three could bring that. In fact, I can pretty easily dream up a scenario with the trio striking out nearly a batter per inning the rest of the way, but the key is will they be able to locate their pitches better, because without that, there ratios could be outright destructive. I know it’s a risk, but sometimes you have to take that leap of faith when the alternatives are guys like Vincente Padilla, Jeff Suppan and Micah Owings. I’m going to close my eyes, pray really hard, and hope these three potentially dominating arms are in fact dominating and not destructive to my fantasy squad. One can hope can’t he?
By Ray Flowers
I wanted to talk just about baseball today, but I just couldn’t limit myself to the diamond in my comments so you will see a couple of shouts out to the NHL and the NFL. Hope you don’t mind.
Vincente Padilla allowed a single hit over eight innings on Tuesday afternoon though, shockingly, he didn’t emerge with a victory as the potent Rangers’ offense waited until the 10th inning to start hitting in a 7-2 victory over the Mariners. In the outing Padilla walked three batters while striking out four in his eight inning shutout effort as he needed just 102 pitches (“only” 66 of those pitches went for strikes). In the end, Padilla lowered his ERA to 5.71 while his WHIP dropped to 1.50 with the scintillating outing. Should you be rushing to the waiver-wire to add Padilla to your squad? The short answer to that question is a resounding no. His K/9 rate of 5.97 is below the magic six, his BB/9 rate of 3.38 is right on the major league average and the result is a poor 1.77 K/BB mark. In addition, after an average fastball speed of 92.7 mph in 2005, his gas has decreased, subtly, in each of the past four seasons down to its current level of 90.8 mph. In addition, since joining the Rangers in 2006, Padilla has a 6.48 K/9, a 1.91 K/BB, a 5.02 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. If you want a guy with numbers like that anywhere near your roster, you got bigger cahones than me.
Chris Young, the potentially dynamic outfielder for the D’backs and not the 6’10″ hurler for the Padres, is mired in a terrible slump that has seen him produce just one hit in 25 at-bats to drop his average down to a pitcher-like .177. The guy has got oodles of talent, but once again he is proving that it’s darn near impossible to have consistent success at the plate if you cannot control the strike zone. In 1,360 career at-bats Young has struck out more than a quarter of the time (25.7%) which has resulted in a terrible 0.34 BB/K mark at the dish (the marks are much worse this season at 32.3% and 0.19). Obviously an approach like that isn’t going to lead to a strong average, a fact clearly seen in his career mark of .238. In addition, after swiping 27 bags in his rookie season, he regressed to just 14 last year and has been successful on just three of five attempts this season. To review. (1) There is no upside in batting average here. (2) Young needs to cut down the strike outs and up the walks. (3) His stolen base numbers are dwindling (you can’t steal first so it doesn’t help that he owns a pathetic .301 OBP). He should still be a Mike Cameron clone, a guy who routinely goes 20/20 with a suspect average, so if you are in a keeper league now might be the perfect time to acquire his services, though if you do you would be wise to leave him on your bench until he straightens his approach at the plate out.
Are the Ducks really going to plow through the Sharks and the Red Wings? If they do, not only will that be a complete and utter shock, it will also show just how grossly undervalued the team was by pundits heading into the playoffs.
Jonas Hiller has been so good for the Ducks that I’m coining a new phrase. No longer when a goalie plays a great game did he “stand on his head,” now it’s he “pulled a Hiller.” The netminder owns a 1.74 GAA and a .955 save percentage in nine playoff games.
Who hates Brett Favre as much as me? Goodness gracious just retire and shut up. He is almost as high on my “hate list” as the Dodgers and the Yankees, and that my friends is saying something.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
