(1) Interleague play messes with players.
(2) Dan Uggla still can’t get her going.
(3) Jake Peavy to the bullpen?
(4) Daric Barton headed to minors?
(5) Ryan Vogelsong continues to amaze.
(6) Tommy Hanson dealing with shoulder woes.
(NOTE: After this video was posted the Braves put Hanson on the 15 DL after an MRI revealed shoulder inflammation).
By Ray Flowers
In what follows you will read the tale of the best agent in baseball, a solid third basemen who is being paid as if he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, and how a team with no chance of winning their division in 2011 is willing to dump $14 million into three moderately effective relievers.
Beltre to AL Champs
Now I’ve seen it all.
Middle relievers are getting multi year deals for more than $5 million a year, which is bad enough, but this whole Adrian Beltre situation has me totally befuddled until I read two words – Scott Boras. Somehow Beltre’s agent, Mr. Boras, has convinced the Rangers that they just had to have Beltre. Not only that, he’s convinced them to pay more than the $80-85 million Beltre was seeking as current reports put the deal he is on the verge of signing with the Rangers at 6-years and $96 million (see Postcards from Elysian Fields). Oh the deal isn’t done, and it does appear to have some language in it that could void the sixth year, but it seems like a near lock that it will get worked out. So here are my questions.
(1) Is Beltre worth that much money? I certainly don’t think so and I’ve written just that multiple times including an in depth look at the player in The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre. Give it a read before you think that the Rangers are spending their money wisely.
(2) How in the world did Mr. Boras get the Rangers to go six years and nearly $100 million on Beltre given that there seemed to be only one other team even remotely interested in Beltre? The Angels were the other team, but they reportedly pulled their 5-year, $70 million offer off the table when Beltre dragged his feat on accepting it. The Athletics long ago pulled out of the sweepstakes, and their offer was 5-years and $64 million according to reports. So again, I ask, how was Boras able to get six and 96 from the Rangers when no one else was reportedly within $25 million of that offer? There may be no person on the planet better at their job than Mr. Boras – not one.
(3) I can grant you that Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Michael Young, but really, why the Rangers need to add Beltre to take over third and push Young to DH? Wouldn’t it have been more fiscally prudent just to leave Young at third and to bring free agent Vladimir Guerrero back to DH? Not only would they have saved something like $75 million compared to what they had to lay out for Beltre, their offense would likely have been just as good in 2011. Are the few runs a year that Beltre will save at third base worth the untold millions extra they are paying him?
(4) And finally, for the gazillionth time:
Beltre has one 30 homer season.
Beltre has two 100 RBI seasons.
Beltre has hit better than .290 just twice.
To compare – Aramis Ramirez has four 30-HR seasons, five 100 RBI efforts, and he has hit better than .290 six times, and few have ever considered him to be an elite option despite the fact that his offensive highs have dwarfed the efforts of Beltre.
Seriously, I just don’t get it.
Orioles Finally Sign Gregg
The Orioles finally got their man as they signed Kevin Gregg to a 2-year deal worth $10 million. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, there is also a vesting option for a third year. For more on Gregg and his recent solid work on the hill spend a few moments looking over Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy.
How does the end of the game look for the Orioles? They already have power lefty Michael Gonzalez in the pen, and he clearly can handle 9th inning work. I know he was injured last season and limited to just 24.2 innings last season because of injury, so the Orioles do need to make sure they have an alternative to Gonzalez. But still, they are paying him $6 million in 2011, and that is quite the cost for a setup man (and obviously, more than Gregg will be making). The Orioles did the smart thing and locked up control artist Koji Uehara for a mere $3 million on a one year deal (I say mere because of the aforementioned spending spree that GM’s went on this year with middle relievers). However, Uehara also had arm issues last season, and it’s unclear if he will be able to pitch every other day out of the bullpen. Uehara and Gonzalez are scheduled to make $9 million this year. Toss in another $5 million for Gregg and you are talking $14 million for those three arms in 2011. I guess in today’s age that isn’t too much to pay for a moderately successful closer, an injury prone lefty, and a guy who has thrown a total of 110.2 innings at the big league level.
Are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.
By Ray Flowers
Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.
Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.
DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).
Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.
vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs
Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.
As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?
Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.
Doing it Right: The White Sox
The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:
The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.
By Ray Flowers
Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 Third Basemen for 2011 an explain my thoughts on Pablo Sandoval.
For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.
Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?
The internet is full of rumors about the fate of Pablo Sandoval in 2011. There is the report about him eating Cheetos and Mountain Dew for breakfast. There is also this photo of him indulging in a rather large dessert. All of this brings up the point that this dude, at just 24 years old, needs a drastic change of focus before he eats himself out of the league. Listed at 246 lbs, there are many reports that he is at least 20 lbs north of that total — and remember, he stands 5’11 and is just 24 years old. We can all see where this is heading, and GM Brian Sabean wasn’t afriad to lend the words to what everyone was thinking. “Worst case, if he doesn’t pull off what he needs to do in the offseason, he could end up in the minor leagues to start the year to get his act ready,” Sabean said.
So, why in the world would I have Pablo ranked 9th amonst third basemen heading into 2011? There are many reasons.
(1) People seem to have totally forgotten that Pablo hit .330 with 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .943 OPS just a year ago (it was 2009 folks). Since 2000, there have been only 22 players in all of baseball with a season in which they matched all four of those totals. Unless you think he is the next Norm Cash, you have to be impressed by those numbers.
(2) In 346 games, that’s just about two seasons worth, he has hit 41 homers with 177 RBI, 164 runs an a .305 average. Do you know how many third basemen hit .305 with 20 homers, 85 RBI and 80 runs scored in 2010? Try two – Adrian Beltre (.321-28-102-84) and Ryan Zimmerman (.307-25-85-85). That’s it.
I’ll freely admit that Pablo was a mess in 2010, and instead of going through the numbers that prove what everyone already knows, I’ll do something I rarely do, and that is to offer a personal scouting report on the player.
Sandoval’s approach has always been in question. He may possess an uncommon ability to put the barrel on the ball, a skill akin to what Vladimir Guerrero can do, but that approach leads to all kind of trouble when the hits aren’t falling. Instead of being patient, waiting for his pitch and talking a walk if it’s appropriate, free swingers like Sandoval start to swing at “pitcher’s pitches,” those that are two, three, four inches out of the zone – because after all he can put the bat on those pitches. Pitchers aren’t stupid, and when word gets out that a batter will chase pitches, why on earth would they throw strikes? Clearly, Sandoval needs to work on his mental approach as he is in desperate need of some patience.
As concering as his free swinging approach was, I’m almost as concerned with his hitting mechanics. For virtually the entire season, Sandoval was leaking out over his front foot. What that means is that when he took his stride he was unable to keep his weight back. As a result, his weight would move forward over his front foot leaving him with zero power because at that point all he had left to hit with was his hands (think what it’s like when a guy is expecting a fastball and gets a changeup. You know, when it appears that he is really off balance and all he does is flip his bat at the ball in a desperate attempt to make contact). I’m sure the coaches mentioned this to Sandoval repeatedly, I’m certainly not the only person who noticed it, but it is a situation that simply must be rectified for him to be able to once again drive the ball into the gaps and over the fence.
Pablo is too talented to disappear unless he eats his way out of the league. I for one believe that he has gotten the message loud and clear (he’ll skip winter ball and train in San Diego this offseason). I won’t be reaching on Sandoval at the draft table, but I’d be more than happy to take him in the middle rounds if he were to fall – you just can’t teach the talents that he does possess.
By Ray Flowers
With the 2010 World Series set to start today I will go through the lineups of the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers to see which club has the advantage.
Oh, and if you are in search of that link for the NL Rookie of the Year, well, there you go.
By Ray Flowers
No one could have predicted this back in April. The San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers will face one another in the World Series for the first time. Not only that, this will mark the first time that two teams with World Series droughts of at least 49 years since their last championship will square off (in the case of the Rangers, they have never won a title). Here are some other interesting facts as we get ready for the final battle of the 2010 season.
* Two Rangers have hitting streaks of 11 games (every game the team has played this postseason). Nelson Cruz is batting .375 with five homers, eight RBI an a 1.294 OPS while Elvis Andrus is hitting .333 with six runs scored and seven steals for the team from the Lone Star State.
* Eleven is the number of consecutive games in this postseason that the Rangers have homered in, one short of the record of 12 set by the 2004 Astros.
* The Giants have tied the playoff record with six victories in one postseason by a single run (the 1972 Athletics pulled off the same trick). The Giants won 28 of the 52 one-run games they had during the regular season.
* Vladimir Guerrero had 115 RBI during the regular season while batting .300, but his body is no longer capable of playing everyday, especially if he is taxed by playing in the field (he played 18 games in the field this season). Therefore, the Rangers are planning on using Vlad in only one game in San Francisco in Games 1 and 2 since the DH will not be in effect.
* Josh Hamilton was the ALCS MVP after hitting .350 with four homers, but more impressive was the fact that he reached base in 15 of his 28 plate appearances (.536 OBP).
* The Rangers have never reached the World Series before while the Giants are 5-12 over the history of the franchise. However, the Giants have never won the Series while playing on the left coast as they lost in 1962 in seven games to the Yankees, in 2002 they fell in seven games to the Angels, and in 1989 they lost to the Athletics in the Series that was delayed because of the Loma Prieta earthquake.
* Cliff Lee will start Game 1 for the Rangers. He is 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts earning himself the moniker of “the” big game pitcher going (with all due respect to guys like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Andy Pettitte to name just a few).
* Bengie Molina will get a World Series ring no matter who wins. He played 61 games with the Giants before he was traded to the Rangers where he suited up for 57 games.
* Cody Ross was the NLCS MVP for the Giants after hitting three homers with five RBI an a .350 batting average in the six game victory over the Phillies. He is also working on a 7-game postseason hitting streak, the second longest in franchise history in the playoffs.
* Only two teams have won a best of seven series with each of their four victories coming by at least four runs – the 2007 Red Sox and the 2010 Rangers.
* Brian Wilson became the fourth pitcher in history to pick up a win or save in each of his teams four victories in one playoff round (he had one win and three saves). The others are Dennis Eckersley (1988 ALCS), Mitch Williams (1993 NLCS) and John Wetteland (1996 World Series).
By Ray Flowers
Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman likely done for the year. You can read more about those tow in MLB Player Rater.
(2) Justin Upton likely done with shoulder issue.
(3) Joe Mauer still out (knee). Likely back on Thursday.
(4) Josh Hamilton still out but he hit on Tuesday.
(5) Miguel Cabrera out with ankle issue.
(6) Daniel Hudson done for the year.
(7) Jimmy Rollins returns for Phillies.
(8) Giants juggle rotation to set up Tim Lincecum.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Rangers pick up Jorge Cantu.
(2) Padres bring in Miguel Tejada.
(3) Phillies officially get Roy Oswalt.
(4) Brett Wallace on the move – yet again.
(5) Kerry Wood likely back on Friday. Sorry Chris Perez owners.
(6) Andrew Bailey likely to DL. Michael Wuertz and Craig Breslow to fore?
By Ray Flowers
Today is Memorial Day, our national holiday for those men and women who gave their lives fighting to protect their country. So spend a moment of time today and say thanks as you give deference to the people that paid the ultimate price so that we could have the freedoms we have today.
So what else am I thankful for on this National Holiday? Here are some thoughts.
* I’m thankful for Tim Lincecum. I’m telling you, if you have never seen that man pitch do yourself a favor and get out to the ballpark. You ain’t seen nothing like it and you’ll always regret it if you aren’t able to one day tell your grandkids “I saw The Freak one day…”
* I’m thankful for what might turn out to be one of the best matchups of the entire season today. Lincecum faces Ubaldo Jimenez today in San Francisco. It should be sunny and about 65 degrees at first pitch. If you love pitching there is nowhere on earth you would be better off being today.
* I’m thankful for guys like Jose Bautista coming out of flipping nowhere to impress – it gives me something to write about. Think of it Bautista, who leads baseball with 16 homers, has already tied his career-high even though the Jays still have 110 games left to play. Over the last four years he’s only averaged 125 games played.
* I’m thankful for red wine. I seem to do my best “work” when I’ve had a bottle or two of Pinot Noir. Note I said bottle not glass.
* I’m thankful for the Tampa Bay Rays leading baseball with a 34-17 record. Well, it’s not so much I’m really in their corner as it is that I just hate the Yankees and want someone to put a beating on them (the Yanks are 3.5 games). Why do I hate the Evil Empire? This one fact should illustrate. The Ray’s starting pitching staff is making just over $8 million this season. The Yankees have four pitchers on their staff who make more than that by themselves.
* I’m thankful that I’m not a fan of the Orioles. I mean 15-36 guys? They are on pace for about 48 victories and 114 loses. Atrocious.
* I’m thankful for my friends and family always being there for me. OK, got a little nostalgic with this one.
* I’m thankful for Livan Hernandez who is proving, once again, that scientific analysis can sometimes fail us when analyzing players. I mean a 2.15 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 10 starts? After all, when I guy is “reportedly” 35 years old, hasn’t posted an ERA under 4.83 or a WHIP below 1.50 in four years of course its makes sense that he would he would emerge as one of the top-10 hurlers in the NL through a third of the season.
* I’m thankful for Joe Mauer. I love the guy. The splendid swing, the calm demeanor, the unassuming superstar everyone can cheer for. I’m also hopeful that you all listened to me when I said there was zero chance he would hit 30 homers this year. Did you listen or did you buy the unfair hype?
* I’m thankful for Vladimir Guerrero proving, once again, that he is one of the better hitters of our generation. Vlad the Impaler is hitting .332 with 12 homers a 44 RBI on the year, and he has been stupendous in May hitting .330 with 10 homers and 31 RBI in just 27 games. Yeah, guess he isn’t washed up now is he? Oh, and speaking of washed up, you did notice that David Ortiz is hitting .363 with 10 homers, 27 RBI and a 1.211 OPS in 23 games in May right?
* I’m thankful for the Internet. Can you imagine what it would be like if you had at your disposal the newspaper and 20 stations on television – how did people do it in the past?
Fanball GM Ryan Houston posted this quote today, and I thought it would be a perfect way to end this piece.
“It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the campus organizer, who has given us the freedom to demonstrate. It is the soldier, who salutes the flag, who serves beneath the flag, and whose coffin is draped by the flag, who allows the protester to burn the flag.”
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
