Slippers, Spirits & Success

No real preamble today, I’m just going to get to giving some of my thoughts on the world o’ baseball.

Jason Bay was finally hitting with a .317 mark, a .969 OPS and 13 RBI through 18 games in September. Of course, he’s now missed three games in a row with the flu. He’s no Justin Morneau, but it looks like Bay’s skills just disappeared, despite his nice three week run.

Lance Berkman has hit only seven homers with 28 RBI over his last 56 games, but on the year he is batting .300 with 31 homers, 91 RBI a .412 OBP and a .967 OPS, a rather phenomenal campaign from a guy who pretty much everyone thought was washed up. It’s being reported that he’s agreed to a one year deal worth $12 million to play with the Cardinals next season. I think it’s a fair deal for both sides, the Cardinals can’t risk losing Albert Pujols next year and not having someone who can hit in the middle of the lineup, but I think they’d be fooling themselves if their expectations were for Berkman to repeat this years effort next season.

Am I the only one that thinks that working a job that you can wear slippers to is about as good as it gets?

Vladimir Guerrero has long been on of my favorite players (perhaps it goes back to the days that he was on my minor league taxi squad). I even have a Vlad G. Montreal Expos jersey in my closet (you’re jealous aren’t you?). This season hasn’t gone as planned for Vlad, but that doesn’t mean that he is ready to hang up his cleats. In fact, he wants to play a couple of more seasons. “I feel I can play two or three more years,” he said. “And I just need to work a little harder this offseason when I go to the Dominican and see what happens.” Guerrero is three hits behind Julio Franco for the most hits every by a Dominican born player, he has 2,583. He’s also on quite a tear right now hitting .400 over his last 16 games to push his average up to .292. If he can get it to .300 it would be the 14th time in 15 seasons he hit that mark. However, with only 13 homers, this will be the first time in his career that he’s had 400 at-bats and failed to go deep 27 times.

The Marlins have placed closer Leo Nunez on the restricted list for “undisclosed reasons” (he has already  headed back to the Dominican Republic, so his 2011 season is over). Nunez will finish the year with middling ratios (4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), but he did produce 36 saves in 42 chances. Edward Mujica might get a look in the ninth, after all he’s been great this year with a 0.97 WHIP and 4.69 K/BB ratio, but I would pick up Steve Cishek if I was looking for a few cheap saves.

I was watching Supernatural the other night and I noticed that Genevieve Courtese had a recurring role (OK, I’m a bit behind with the series – I’m only working on season IV right now). I admit it, I’m such a sucker for brunettes.

Ben Revere is hitting .263, has no homer,s sports a terrible .310 OBP and has a sickly .297 SLG (how awful is that?). So why am I wasting any time writing about him? His recent play of course. Over the last eight games Ben has produced 15 hits, including one in each outing, while he’s also swiped seven bags. That’s the type of a waiver-wire pickup that can win you your league. Reverse certainly has a lot of limitations on offense, but his late season push will certainly have him in the mix for a substantial role with the Twins next season.

Iwasn’t a big believer when the Rangers decided to move C.J. Wilson from the pen to the rotation. Consider my opinion to be in error. Wilson went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA last year, and he’s been slightly better this year going 16-7 with a 2.97 ERA. He’s also upped his K mark this season to 8.38 per nine which has resulted in 206 punchouts. That dude is gonna get straight paid in the free agent market this offseason.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 5, 2011

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you trade away Alexi Ogando for Carlos Beltran?
– @ToddScreamer

Back on May 16th I wrote the following about Ogando. “…there is no way he can perform this well all season… Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.” I have to admit he’s held on much longer than I thought he would, but at the same time there are some troublesome signs. First, he’s failed to last more than five innings in three of four starts. Second, over his last four starts he’s 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Now you might say small sample size to brush off that recent run of poor work, but the mitigating factor here is that Ogando has already reached a career-high in innings pitched. In this day and age of pitch and inning counts, just how hard are the Rangers going to push Ogando? For that matter, how will his arm hold up under the increasingly heavy workload? Finally, Ogando owns a middling K/9 rate (6.73), a poor GB/FB (0.88) and there is still no way to explain his .247 BABIP given his over 22 percent line drive rate.

Beltran has been as good as ever at the plate. It’s pretty shocking actually given the physical issues that limited him to 145 games played the last two years. Let’s compare his work this season to his career averages.

Career: .282/.360/.494
2011: .281/.371/.492

It’s pretty amazing how close those numbers are. How about the counting stats you ask? He only has 350 plate appearances right now, so I’ll give you those numbers and his career averages per 350 PAs.

Career: 14 homers, 52 RBI, 54 runs, 14 steals
2011: 12 homers, 55 RBI, 46 runs, three steals

Pretty much everything suggests that Beltran is “back,” though the pink elephant in the room is the lack of steals. Given his knee issues the past few years they may never come back, but that doesn’t mean Beltran won’t continue to be a force with a bat in his hands.

I find it hard to believe I’m typing this, but I’m going to say Beltran is the better bet to replicate his first half work in the second half. Beltran could be traded to a team with a better offense and get a chance to ply his trade in a better home park, and that intrigues me. Plus, I’m just not sold that Ogando is (a) going to keep up his current level of performance and (b) that his arm isn’t going to fall off if he more than doubles his previous career-high in innings.

As a Matt Capps owner I picked up Joe Nathan. How much longer till I’m dropping Capps?
– @j_peterson730

Capps blew a save chance July 2nd, and then on July 3rd he was removed after allowing two hits (it was Glen Perkins and not Nathan who was called in to clean up the mess). Capps was not pleased, and he even got the kiss of death after the game when manager Ron Gardenhire said he was still the closer for the Twins. Capps has been as good as ever with a mere 1.03 BB/9 mark, he just doesn’t beat himself, but oddly his K/9 mark is way down to 5.40 per nine, a terrible mark (career 6.83). That’s danger territory. At the same time virtually all the other major indicators with him point to this being a “normal” Capps effort which equates to solid without being overly interesting or dominating.

Is that enough to hold off Nathan? There are two things at work here. (1) Nathan is still working his way back to full strength (Nathan’s thrown the ball very well since returning from the DL but we’re only talking about four innings). It is heartening though that over his last six outings that he’s picked up six Ks without a single walk. He’s getting closer, and the mph is creeping up, but he’s still not back to 2009 form quite yet. (2) The Twins continue to be beat down by injuries as much as any club in baseball, and as a result they are in fourth place in the AL Central. They’re only eight games out, but there is a chance that we reach the end of the month and the Twins make the decision to move Capps to another contender. If that occurs then the 9th would be wide open in Minnesota.

For now you have to keep Capps because you won’t get much for him on the trade market. There’s also the fact that he is still the Twins’ closer. However, know that he isn’t at all likely to be picking up saves in August unless it’s with another club.

I have Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. Nick Swisher just became a free agent. Drop one for him?
– @ZacharyReid

Swisher killed it in June hitting .326 with seven homers and 23 RBI. As a result he is on pace to go .248-19-92-77 over 533 ABs this season. In his career, per 533 at-bats, Swisher has produced a line of .252-27-84-88. Obviously he’s right back where he should be, and it’s clear he shouldn’t be on waiver-wires.

Guerrero has 442 homers, 1,461 RBI, owns a .318 career average and has more than 2,500 hits in his career. He’s also never failed to hit .295 in a season, and every time he has had 500 ABs he has gone deep at least times 27 with 83 RBI. He’s aging (36 years old), and his body has been oft injured the past few years, but it’s pretty shocking to find him on pace to go .276 with 11 homers and 53 RBI. Abreu is another aging vet who has one big advantage over Vlad – he still steals bases. Abreu has 13 thefts putting him on pace for a 13th straight season of at least 20 steals. He’s also seen his average come up to .285 on the year, and the dude can still get on base with a .395 OBP. His power seems pretty much gone, even 12 homers will be a surprise this season (he currently has three), but he’s still pretty stable at the dish and on the base paths.

Add Swisher at the expense of Bad Vlad.

Which Jays’ OF to go with: Travis Snider, Eric Thames or Rajai Davis?
– @nylivincamind

A first round selection in 2006, Snider has been up and down more than the super hero genre in movie theaters this year. When he’s in the majors he has struggled hitting .249 with a .743 OPS in his career, but he kills it in the minors. Snider hit .333 this year at Triple-A as the Jays left him down there a long while to make sure he found his stroke after hitting .184 in 87 at-bats with the Jays earlier in the year. Snider had three hits in his first game back, is just 23 years old, and scouts will tell you this is a 30 homer bat.

Thames hit 27 homers with 104 RBI last season at Double-A to gain everyone’s attention. With the Jays recent dump of Juan Rivera, Thames should get ample chance to prove himself in the bigs. He likes to swing at the first pitch, and sometimes struggles with secondary stuff, but there is no disputing that he has talent. However, he will likely have to contend with Corey Patterson and Davis for playing time which is why I’d prefer Snider over Thames.

What about Davis? It seems like he got the message that his playing time was about to be curtailed. Davis has five hits and four thefts in his last two outings. Despite all his struggles he is still looking at a third straight 40-steal season. It also deserves to be pointed out that Davis loved to hit in the second half as his average is .302, .046 points better than his first half mark, while his OPS goes up to .758, .119 points better than his first half mark.

Davis would be my choice here. His average should come up from his current .237 mark, and his wheels are elite giving him a chance to be a second half difference maker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Around the Horn: April7, 2011

(1) Lastings Milledge released by the White Sox. Will he ever reach his potential?

(2) Edinson Volquez struggling to find the strike zone – again.

(3) Logan Morrison has a bright future, but what is his value this season?

(4) Michael Bourn tweaks groin. Does that mean he’ll stop running?

(5) Yunel Escobar has head injury. Hopefully it’s minor after his hot start.

(6) Vlad Guerrero – he can still hit despite his slow start.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.21, 2011

(1) The FSTA Convention in Las Vegas.

(2) Where will Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon end up?

(3) The Athletics team wide makeover is impressive. Here is an additionl report on their arms in A’s Astounding Bullpen.

(4) The Yankees signed Andruw Jones to a 1-year deal.

(5) Nate McLouth to be given shot to return to starting in CF.

You can read more about the Jones and McLouth news in MLB News and Notes.

By Ray Flowers

Signings and Strategy

I had a nice weekend. I went out on a wonderful date on Friday night, amazingly the second time that the beautiful woman agreed to see me, had my first Tom Collins on Saturday (not bad at all), and I got to lounge around on Sunday in my pajamas while watching inane movies off my recently purchased subscription to Netflix. I also spent my usual amount of time running through all the happenings in the sports world as I found out that even while slightly intoxicated I could still remember the majority of facts and figures I came across (to be honest I already knew this having spent a good portion of the past three years drunk – my mom would be so proud). Hopefully your weekend went as well as mine.

Enough with that. You didn’t come here to read about my fledgling life as a social butterfly, so let’s get down to some hardcore analysis shall we?

A Signing and a Free Agent

Jason Bartlett signed a 2-year, $11 million deal to take over at shortstop for the Padres. The deal buys out his last season of arbitration and first year of free agency in 2012. The dollars might seem somewhat pricey given that he hit .254 with 47 RBI and 11 steals last year, but he was a fantasy superstar in 2009 (.320-14-66-90-30). The “real” Bartlett is somewhere between those two extremes. I’d draft Bartlett for his average (.281 career) and for the speed that led to 20-steals each year from 2007-09. If he returns to that level he will have an awful lot of value in NL-only leagues.

Brian Fuentes is still a free agent, and I’m having a hard time understanding why that is. Maybe he wants big dollars, but plenty of middle relievers this offseason have gotten loaded (see Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy). Perhaps it is because he wants to serve as a closer and teams don’t have an opening for him there? What I can say for certain is that he still owns the skills to be a highly effective reliever. He only lasted 48 innings last season because of injury, but when he was on the hill he was vintage Fuentes with a 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and an 8.81 K/9 mark. The K-rate was down a full batter from his career rate, and that certainly is a concern, but after posting a career worst 7.53 mark in ’09 adding a batter plus to that rate in ’10 is certainly encouraging. It should also be noted that his fly ball rate last season was over 58 percent, a massive number. If/when that number recedes closer to his career rate of 45.0 percent, one would think he would have little trouble continuing to get batters out. With all of that, and the fact that he is one of just four men with at least 20 saves each of the past six years (Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez), isn’t it odd that Brian is still twisting in the wind?

Strategy Corner

A brief thought as we slowly start to move away from fantasy football into fantasy baseball.

Don’t believe the hype.

Sometimes the hype is warranted, but at least as often the hype ends up amounting to little. How does that apply to the early 2011 mock draft winds?

Adrian Gonzalez is being taken as a first round selection. I’ve already given my thoughts as to why I think that is a bad idea in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. Also, put this in your pipe and smoke it – do you know how many seasons A-Gone has had with a .300 average and 30 homers? The answer is zero. There are a lot of reasons to think A-Gone will be extremely productive this season, and if healthy a .300-30 season seems a strong bet, but that doesn’t mean he’ll improve to the level of being a top-10 selection. I would only suggest that you do your own analysis and take into account your own thoughts on the matter and don’t blindly jump in because it’s what everyone else is doing. Sometimes doing the old zig while everyone is zagging is beneficial. Don’t be a sheep following the others, be your own person and lead based on what you think is right, even if it is counter to the commonly accepted position of the “experts.”

The World of Numbers

I love numbers – you might have gathered that if you have read anything I have ever written. If you have a few more minutes to kill reading my work, click on the link to By the Numbers where I talk about the historical greatness of Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome to name but a few of the players I tackle in the piece.

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 1, 2010

(1) Josh Hamilton out of lineup with knee injury.

(2) Alex Rodriguez likely to return on Sunday.

(3) Ray’s call up Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings.

(4) Ian Kinsler (groin), Lance Berkman (knee) back off DL.

(5) Yovani Gallardo says he is OK despite awful results.

(6) Jason Kendall needs shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 4, 2010

(1) Grady Sizemore done for the year – microfracture knee surgery.

(2) Carlos Beltran has success in extended spring game.

(3) No surgery for Brett Anderson?

(4) Vladimir Guerrero returns from injured eye.

(5) Alex Gordon hitting well, but won’t be back soon with Royals.

(6) Gary Matthews Jr. was designated. Still owned nearly $20 million on current deal.

(7) Pat Burrell with Giants, John Bowker demoted. For more make sure you read my most recent Five Questions article which also talks about Gordon Beckham losing playing time, and Matt Wieters struggles.

By Ray Flowers

The Wacky World of Baseball

The Rockies made a stupid decision, more star players have ended up on the DL, the Orioles bullpen continues to be a mess and Roy Oswalt has a story that will make you love him.

I don’t get it. The Rockies gave Chris Iannetta a 3-year deal worth $8.3 million. The club then brought in Miguel Olivo in on a 1-year, $2.5 million deal to serve as his the backup. Three weeks into the season, the situation has been reversed. In fact, it’s worse than that as Iannetta has actually been sent down to Triple-A. Does this make any sense? I know that Iannetta is hitting .133 with 11 Ks in 30 at-bats, Olivo is hot as he is hitting .311 with five bombs, but how can the team possibly send out their “starting” catcher after 30 at-bats? Just what in the heck is Chris going to prove at Triple-A? After all, this is a man who has 293 games of big league experience. I know it’s not the best way to compare players, but here is what each man would do based on a 162 game season.

Iannetta: .239-23-86-70 with a .357 OBP and a .799 OPS
Olivo: .244-21-72-63 with a .279 OBP and a .707 OPS

Clearly Iannetta is the more complete hitter, and three weeks doesn’t change that at all. I preach patience all the time in the fantasy game. Clearly, I have to start preaching the same thing to real world teams as the Rockies pulled the classic, knee jerk move of making a move that they will regret when the summer hits.

Jason Bay hit his first homer of the year on Tuesday ending a drought that had reached 108 at-bats dating back to last year. Look for him to relax and possibly take off shortly.

Vladimir Guerrero is playing right field on Tuesday as the Rangers were forced to put Nelson Cruz on the DL with a hamstring issue. I don’t think that is a plan the club should follow. Leave Vlad at DH where he has been ripping it up to the tune of a .371 average, and put David Murphy in the field. Not only does this make the most sense because of the health concerns with Vlad, it also would help my Jed Wars team where I have Murphy as one of my outfielders. Speaking of Jed Wars, here is a link to one of the videos I did for the league. It explains my love of fantasy baseball in The Illustrated Ray Flowers. Do you love my art or what? I know, Picasso has nothing on me.

The Orioles will no longer simply give the ball to Jim Johnson in the ninth Inning. “Whoever can get outs is going to get a chance,” manager Jim Trembley said. “I don’t think there are any roles. There is no closer right now for me.” Seems like Mike Gonzalez will have a good shot at reclaiming the role once he returns. Too bad we have no idea when that might be (a report suggested that he won’t been cleared to throw until Monday).

If you didn’t love Roy Oswalt already, these two stories should clinch it. (1) Oswalt’s parents live in the same town, in the same house, that they have since Roy was a child. Oswalt bought a home that is about ½ a mile from his parents house. The family owns a restaurant there. Oh, and Roy married a gal who is from the same town. Gotta love that. (2) Oswalt’s career was saved by, and I’m not making this up, an electric shock. In 1999 his shoulder was jacked up (it took six Advil for him just to get to sleep). How did he get past it? No, not surgery, but a spark plug. While working on his truck a bolt of electricity ran through his body and fixed his shoulder. If you don’t love all that, I don’t know what to tell you.

Ryan Zimmerman (hamstring) continues to be out of the starting lineup. I’m not ready to call this a Red Sox-like situation with how they handled Jacoby Ellsbury, but if all Z. can do is pinch hit, why not just put him on the DL to make sure both his hamstrings are healthy? He hasn’t played a full game since April 21st.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers