Draft Day Challenge, April 23

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter: @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Salvador Perez
2. Russell Martin

Perez is hitting a poor .188 the past three weeks to drop his season long mark down to .258. He faces Max Scherzer, a tough matchup, though one that he has had ample success with as he’s gone deep twice and has five hits in seven at-bats.

Martin was awful at the start of the season and people were freaking out. He’s turned that all around of late. Martin is hitting .526 the past week with a couple of homers. Things tend to even out eventually.

FIRST BASE
1. Mark Trumbo
2. Adam LaRoche

Trumbo is hitting .350 with a homer the last week, and he’s been solid all year long with a .311 average. He’s also gone 4-for-10 against Alexi Ogando whom he faces on this day.

LaRoche is a slow starter, so maybe it’s tough to trust him, but he has had some success versus Adam Wainwright in his career (.280-1-9 in 25 at-bats).

SECOND BASE
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Jose Altuve

Kinsler is expensive, but he’s worth it given the success he has had against Jason Vargas (.343-1-3 with two steals over 35 at-bats).

Altuve is white hot right now with a .455 batting average over the past two weeks. Will he be able to keep that going against Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 1.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over four starts?

THIRD BASE
1. Mark Reynolds
2. Kyle Seager

Reynolds leads baseball with 10 RBIs against left-handed pitching and he faces Jose Quintana, a lefty, from the White Sox. Reynolds has gone deep three times against lefties though he has hit, a Reynolds-like, .231.

Seager is hitting .276 thanks to hits in 11-straight games. He’s also rapped out seven hits the past three games and has two homers and four RBIs in his past two contests.

SHORTSTOP
1.Yunel Escobar
2. Jean Segura

Escobar has seven hits in 16 at-bats (.438) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Escobar also hit his second homer of the year and had two RBIs Monday night.

Segura is 0-for-3 against Clayton Richard in his career but he also leads baseball on this young season with a .563 batting average in 16 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

OUTFIELD
1. Alex Gordon
2. Matt Joyce

The matchup for Gordon looks sloppy on paper as he faces Max Scherzer. Results though say that Gordon should have a lot of success as he’s hit .389 with a homer in 18 at-bats against the righty. Gordon also enters the game hitting. .342 in April.

Joyce has gone deep twice with five hits in 11 at-bats (.455) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Wait, have I already written that?

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Wade Davis
3. Patrick Corbin
4. Carlos Villanueva

Quintana has 14 strikeouts over 13.2 shutout innings in his last two starts. He’s facing an Indians club that has hit .094 with a .172 SLG against him over 64 at-bats. Ownage perhaps?

Davis hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts and he has struck out 13 batters over those 23 innings. He faces a tough Tigers lineup but he’s rolling so far in the young season and he does have a 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven career outings against the Tigers.

Corbin has allowed a total of three runs in two outings on the road this season. He faces off against the Giants in San Francisco. In three starts this season the young lefty has allowed a total of three earned runs though his 1.86 K/BB ratio isn’t exactly fantastic though in 23 innings against the Giants that number is a remarkable 15.00 (15 Ks, 1 BB).

Villanueva has allowed three runs in three starts this season leading to a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for the Cubs. He faces the Reds in Cincinnati, a club that he has performed passably against in his career (3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 40 Ks in 49.2 IP).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May15, 2012

(1) Matt Kemp to DL.

(2) Christian Friedrich dominating.

(3) Troy Tulowitzki hurt.

(4) Nationals, Yankees, Mets having 9th inning issues.

(5) Dan Haren – buy low candidate?

(6) Jeff Neimann out with a broken leg.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

Second Year Players

Never one to turn away from my loyal followers, I was posed a question by Eric in the Comments section of the site: could I review some of the 2011 players who are heading into their second season and give my thoughts on their 2011 outlooks? You got it Eric. Here goes.

Brennan Boesch (current ADP from MockDraftCentral – outside the top-400): Check out his 2010 splits from the first half (.342-12-49 with a .990 OPS) and the second (.163-2-18 with a .458 OPS). He’s obviously neither hitter, and in fact his season long numbers are about what you would expect given his skill set (.256-14-67 with a .736 OPS). A repeat of last seasons numbers is certainly possibly, perhaps with some incremental growth, but that will only occur if he sees as much playing time as he did last season and at this point that is far from certain to occur. And don’t forget that he hit a mere .233 against righties while scorching lefties to the tun of a .337 mark with a .951 OPS. Those numbers make it seem like a platoon situation is possible, especially if he struggles early.

Starlin Castro (164): He had a tremendous season for the 20 year old as he hit .300 in 2010 for the Cubbies. However, he also hit only three homers and stole just 10 bases, so there wasn’t huge fantasy value produced by the Cubs’ shortstop. His value at this point of his development is basically what he can offer in the batting average and steals categories. Castro is fast, but expecting the leap to even 20 steals this season might be a bit much. As for the average, it should remain stable given his speed and the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (1.76 GB/FB rate). At the same time, how much would you pay for a .300-5-50-75-15 season which would seem to be his upside in 2011. I’d rather take Jason Bartlett at pick #367 overall, some 200 selections later.

Ike Davis(268): Everyone in New York thinks Davis will become the next Mark Teixeira. Me? Not so much. Davis still has that hand hitch in his swing to worry about, he struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats in ’10, and he plays in a park that isn’t exactly a homer haven. Davis also had a poor line drive rate of under 17 percent (the big league average is about 19-20 percent) which doesn’t at all support his .321 BABIP from last season. Add that up and I think he has just as good a chance to hit .250 as he does to hit .280. Given that fact, and his rather middling power for a first baseman, I really don’t see the urge to roster him in mixed leagues unless you are talking about him as a corner infield option.

Wade Davis (395): Drafters aren’t giving Davis much love. Maybe it’s because of all the young arms in Tampa that cause Davis to get lost in the shuffle? A sturdy 6’5″ and about 225 lbs., Davis seems physically capable of handling whatever innings the Rays want to throw his way. He was solid last season with a big league average walk rate (3.32 per nine), his ERA was just a hair over four at 4.07 (a pretty good mark in the AL East), while his WHIP of 1.35 was passable. He will need to curtail his homer rate a bit, it was 1.29 per nine last season, but that could easily be accomplished if he split the difference between his fly ball rate in six starts in 2009 (36 percent) and 29 last year (44 percent). The biggest concern here is where did the Ks go? After posting an 8.74 K/9 mark in the minors he was at 8.92 per nine in ’09 with the Rays. If he can add a strikeout to his mark of just 6.05 from last year, that will go a long way to making him relevant in mixed leagues.

David Freese (396): Freese has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats after hitting .308 in the minors. Clearly, the average is legit. However, he has only five homers in the bigs and has hit a rather pedestrian 17 homers over his last 500 at-bats including his minor league work. The biggest concern with him though is his health. Freese had both of his ankles operated on, and though everyone is hoping he will be ready for opening day, there is certainly some concern (the team has already announced that Allen Craig will see more time at third in spring in case he is needed in season). At this point I’m only taking Freese as an NL-only option at the corner infield spot, but there is some upside if he’s healthy.

Austin Jackson (319): Jackson led baseball with a .396 BABIP in 2010. There is no chance he repeats that number in 2011. Yes, players establish their own baseline in BABIP, and yes, fast players often surpass the major league average in BABIP (which is about .300 by the way). Still, there is no way that he will be able to push .400 again. Honestly, I think he has a hard time pushing .350. That said, his average could dip quite a bit from his .293 mark of last season. He could steal 30 bases and hit a few more homers, but that average is gonna come down. I mean for goodness sakes, the guy struck out 170 times last year and hit four homers. That’s plain awful.

Gaby Sanchez (234): A fourth round selection in 2005, Sanchez went to college meaning that he is already 27 years old which should temper somewhat the thought that he could take a major step forward in his second full season in the bigs. We all look for power at the corner infield spot, and with Sanchez it’s much more Lyle Overbay than Prince Fielder. Sanchez had a nine percent HR/F ratio, right on the big league average in 2010. The only reason he hit 19 homers was the fact that he produced a high 46 percent fly ball rate. If that number regresses even slightly in 2011, 25 homers will be a pipe dream. Draft Sanchez expecting a repeat or slight improvement from last season, but don’t draft him expecting a breakout season.

Four in One

There are four main story lines I want to hit on today. Two involve players that were recently sent to new teams, while two others deal with the first awards to be handed out this season.

Rookie of the Year Results

I went on record making Buster Posey as my choice for NL Rookie of the Year and Austin Jackson as my AL choice (you can read my full arguments for both at the links to NL Rookie of the Year and AL Rookie of the Year). How accurate were my predictions?

In the NL my top-3 were Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia – the exact same order as the official voting. The only oddity in the voting was that a voter left Posey and Heyward off their ballot meaning they didn’t put either in their top-3. That’s disgraceful. They should have their voting privilege revoked.

In the AL, I wasn’t a soothsayer. I predicted Austin Jackson, Neftali Feliz and John Jaso as the top-3. The actual vote went Feliz-Jackson-Danny Valencia (Jaso came in fifth, Wade Davis also finished ahead of him in 4th place). Again, I always favor the everyday player over the pitcher if there is any doubt, kind of like a tie on the bases goes to the runner.

Cameron Maybin a Padre

The Padres traded for ultra talented Cameron Maybin giving up two strong relievers in Edwin Mujica and Ryan Webb who will now call Florida home.

Mujica struck out more than a batter per inning this season with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings. He also didn’t walk anyone with only six walks on the year meaning his K/BB ratio was 12.00, a historic number (it was the 4th best number in the history of baseball for a guy who tossed at least 65 innings). He needs to cut down the homers though – he owns a 1.43 per nine mark. Webb allowed only one homer in 59 innings as he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP for the Padres in 2010. He is an extreme groundball hurler with an ultra impressive 3.68 GB/FB ratio in ’10, an if he keeps that up he is going to have a job for an awfully long time.

Maybin is an all-around athlete who scouts will tell you owns every physical skill needed to have success at the big league level. At the same time, the sports world is a results driven business, and to this point Maybin has been a disappointment. Through 168 major league games Maybin is hitting .246 with 13 homers, 45 RBI, 93 runs scored and 19 thefts . While that isn’t good, it’s not all far removed from the type of effort that new teammate Chase Headley offered in 2009 (.264-11-58-77-17). In addition, the 23 year old Maybin has hit .284 with 62 RBI, 65 runs and 13 steals in just 115 games at Triple-A. The question is, can he translate his talent into production at the big league level? I think that, despite going to the worst offensive park in baseball in San Diego, that Maybin has a legitimate shot to be the next Mike Cameron. He’ll post a decent average, with a good amount of pop, and enough speed to be interesting. I think he could go 20/20 in 2011, and honestly, if he plays every day and doesn’t go 15/15, I would be disappointed.

David DeJesus an Athletic

The Athletics picked up outfielder David DeJesus by sending pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks to the Royals. Mazarro will be in the Royals rotation next season after going 6-8 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 122.1 innings with the A’s in 2010. Marks is a 22 year old who was taken in the third round of the 2009 Entry Draft. He had more than a K per inning at Single-A ball last season with 136 in 129.1 innings. His future is still a few years away from hitting.

DeJesus is a solid major league player who has more value in the real world than he does in fantasy. He is a good citizen, plays defense well, runs the bases well, and does a solid job of getting on base. In terms of numbers he owns a career slash line of .289/.360/.427, and per 162 games in his career he has posted an average fantasy line of .289-11-72-93-9. That isn’t over the top production by any means, but it marks him as a solid #5 outfielder in mixed leagues, and a solid #3 option in AL-only scenarios. I really like the guy, and it stands to reason that his production won’t change too much in Oakland. Just do yourself a favor and make sure you don’t draft him expecting him to match last years .318 average – it almost certainly will not be repeated.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 1, 2010

(1) Josh Hamilton out of lineup with knee injury.

(2) Alex Rodriguez likely to return on Sunday.

(3) Ray’s call up Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings.

(4) Ian Kinsler (groin), Lance Berkman (knee) back off DL.

(5) Yovani Gallardo says he is OK despite awful results.

(6) Jason Kendall needs shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 20, 2010

(1) Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann to return next week.

(2) Rich Harden to start on Monday for Rangers.

(3) Conor Jackson back on DL.

(4) Is Jason Bay (concussion) done for the year?

(5) Cody Ross claimed off waivers.

(6) Ronny Paulino reportedly suspended 50 games.

(7) Carlos Gonzalez (knee) hopes to avoid DL.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 16, 2010

(1) Francisco Rodriguez out with torn ligament.

(2) Jeremy Hellickson likely to make only one more start.

(3) Carlos Pena back in action.

(4) Nelson Cruz back on DL – hammy injury.

(5) Eric Young Jr. to get shot at PT with Rockies.

(6) Ryan Howard (ankle) a bit longer on shelf. Chase Utley back on Tuesday.

(7) Jason Bay and Justin Morneau reports (both out with concussions).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 23, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg suffers first loss, being outpitched by Brian Bannister.

(2) Edwin Encarnacion stays with Blue Jays after passing through waivers.

(3) Josh Beckett (back) improving, but unlikely to return before All-Star Break.

(4) Gil Meche (shoulder) and Luke Hochevar (elbow) hope to rejoin Royals around the All-Star break.

(5) Johnny Cueto rebounds after rough start to June.

(6) Joey Devine (elbow) shut down again.

(7) Rays to stick with Wade Davis over Jeremy Hellickson.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Spring Training Begins

(1) Eric Gagne to sign with Rockies?
*After this video was made, Gagne signed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal.

(2) Ted Lilly having knee issues.

(3) Brad Lidge struggles due to tipping pitches?

(4) Blue Jays arms on the mend – Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum.

(5) Brian Roberts dealing with back spasms.

(6) Wade Davis – no IP limit with Rays?

(7) Cliff Lee’s foot progressing well. Should throw next week.

(8) Joel Hanrahan having elbow issues. May need surgery.

By Ray Flowers