History is Happening

Usually I mention players in alphabetical order in my BaseballGuys.com article, but today I’m breaking that mold as I felt that the historic work of one Phillies hurler deserved to lead off the show.

Am I talking about Roy Halladay? Nope, but I did write about him yesterday in Is It Safe? Today I’m going to discuss the history making run that Cliff Lee has provided, and if you think I’m using hyperbole, which I have to admit I do fall into on occasion, your wrong. Lee threw 8.2 scoreless innings against the Reds Wednesday night, and with the victory in that outing he moved to 5-0 on the month. That’s not historic you say? You’d be right there. However, he also posted a 0.45 ERA for the month. I’ve got your attention now don’t I? When you combine that effort with his work in June (5-0 with a 0.21 ERA) – now we’re cooking you might be thinking. In fact, Lee’s two months of near perfection have enabled him to become just the third pitcher in the history of baseball to have two separate months in one season in which a pitcher has won at least five games (without a loss) while producing an ERA under 1.00. How amazing is that? Oh, in case you were wondering who the other two men were, here you go.

Bob Gibson (1968): 6-0 with a 0.50 ERA in June and July. Yeah, he went 12-0 with a 0.50 during that stretch. Talk about amazing.

Walter Johnson (1913): 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA (April) and 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA (July).

Now you see why I led off the piece with this news.

Since the All-Star Break Ryan Braun is hitting .357 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and 12 steals in 42 games. Yeah, he’s good.

For those of you in NL-only leagues, Chris Heisey was activated from the DL today (he had been out with an oblique issue). I’m not sold that the Reds will play him every day, but with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 36 runs in 217 at-bats he is on a pace that would net him 28 homers, 88 RBI and 83 runs scored over 500 at-bats.

How unlucky has Felix Hernandez been this year? Last year he went 13-12, and this season he is currently 13-11 with the month of September to go. Still, in his 11 losses he permitted three or fewer earned runs six times. However, that likely wouldn’t faze Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum of the Giants who have been criminally supported by their offense. I hope you’re sitting down before you read this – it’s pretty amazing

Zero ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 3 outings
M. Cain 4-0 in 5 outings
Lincecum 5-1 in 7 outings

How do you lose games when you don’t give up an earned run. Giants’ hitters should be especially proud of themselves.

One ER Allowed
MadBum 4-3 in 10 outings
M. Cain 3-1 in 6 outings
Lincecum 6-0 in 9 outings

Two ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 4 outings
M. Cain 1-2 in 6 outings
Lincecum 0-2 in two outings

What are the trio’s records in those games in which they’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs? How about 27-11. What that means though is that if they allow more than two runs the trio is just 4-21 on the year.

Jesus Montero is finally up with the Yankees. A prodigious hitter with a luminous future, scouts predict that Montero will be a middle of the order bat for years to come. The 21 year old catcher likely won’t see much time behind the plate, his defense lags well behind his bat, but he should see a fair amount of work in the DH spot, at least against left-handed pitching. He’s a must start at this point in AL-only leagues, and if you are desperate from some offense at your second catcher spot in mixed leagues you can take a flier on Montero and probably not end up looking too stupid.

By Ray Flowers

Pitching on Trial

The mighty has fallen. It may not be as depressing as the fact that the house you bought for $300,000 dollars two years ago might sell for $225,000 today, but in fantasy circles the loss was just as severe. Stephen Strasburg suffered a substantially torn ulnar collateral ligament, and what that means is that there is an exceedingly high probability that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. I already wrote about the ramifications of this situation in Five Questions: Is Strasburg Finished?, but I wanted to expand on something I only briefly mentioned in that piece – and that is the way that organizations baby their pitchers. Is there any benefit to this recent practice?

It has become a comical situation really. Teams are so worried about protecting their investments that they treat them as if they were made out of paper mache. In fact, the level of injury in today’s pitcher seems to be much higher than it was in years past despite the advent of advanced physical training and medical proficiency. How is it that guys who are bigger, stronger, more reliably trained, and more closely watched than ever before break down more quickly than at any point in the past? I just don’t get it.

In the case of the Nationals, the team counted everything Strasburg did with the attention of an auditor from the government who is trying to extract every penny from your wallet. They never let him toss more than 99 pitches in a big league game, and only twice was he allowed to log even seven innings in an outing. A lot of good that all that monitoring did for Mr. Strasburg.

At the other end of the spectrum we have his teammate, Livan Hernandez, who has never missed a buffet in his life – yet he continues to roll on basically injury free. Listed as 35 years old, he might actually be 40 for all we know, Livan continues to rack up innings year after year, and he’s now 11 innings from 13th straight season of at least 180-innings. Is Livan simply gifted with a “rubber” arm? Was he genetically predisposed to never have a serious arm problem? Has he avoided injury because his career average for a fastball is a mere 85 mph? I mean after all, Strasburg’s average change-up this season was 89.7 mph.

I have no idea what the answers are to these questions. All I know is that time after time we are smacked in the face by the fact that even though we think we have it figured out, we actually have no clue.

Strasburg had his innings pitched totals limited – almost obnoxiously so. Strasburg had hid pitch total managed fastidiously as well. Yet here we are with a torn tendon and the inevitable surgery.

Perhaps the truth is that human beings simply aren’t meant to throw a baseball over an over again at such speeds. There were hurlers in the past who could rush it up there in the high 90′s, guys like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard obviously come to mind, but there is no disputing the fact that today there are more pitchers than ever capable of tossing the old ball at speeds in excess of 95 mph. As training methods have improved, pitchers are able to get more out of their body than ever before, but perhaps we’ve gotten to the point that we have taxed the human body so excessively that sooner or later, like a taught rubber band, there will be an inevitable snap back.

If you ask me here is the simply truth – each man has a certain amount of bullets in his gun. It doesn’t matter if he stands 5’11″ or 6’6″, it doesn’t matter if he weighs 165 or 250 lbs, and it doesn’t matter if he throws 87 or 97 mph. Sooner or later everyone’s arm goes, and for every Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine we have a Francisco Liriano, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Carpenter, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria etcetera, etcetera. The real issue here isn’t training methods or velocity as much as it should be a realization that sooner or later all pitchers have to pay the price for the fame and fortune they attain.

By Ray Flowers

In the Presence of Greatness

The numbers are stupendous, astounding, mind boggling. Every five games this season Ubaldo Jimenez has taken the hill, and in his wake he’s left broken bats, dejected hitters an amazed fans. Here is the list of major categories that he leads baseball in right now.

Wins – 11
ERA – 0.93
WHIP – 0.93
BAA – .176
Fastball velocity – 96.7 mph

And that’s pretty much the whole kit and caboodle folks. Everything he is throwing up there right now is working – everything. Consider the following data points.

* He has made 12 starts and 10 times he has gone at least seven innings. The other two times he went six innings allowing a total of one earned run. That means he has tossed a quality start in every one of his 12 appearances.

* Jimenez has made 12 starts and 10 times he has walked three or fewer batters (eight times two or fewer). For a pitcher who has a career BB/9 mark of 3.90 that’s pretty darn good (his mark this season is 2.99).

The above factoids describe how good he has been this season, but if we place his performance in historical context we truly begin to understand the magnitude of what is going on here.

* Jimenez is the first pitcher in the history of baseball to have an ERA under 1.00 while at the same time emerging with the “W” 11 times in his first 12 starts. That’s ever folks.

* His 0.93 ERA after 12 starts is the lowest mark for a starter this deep into a season in 65 years. In fact, only two pitchers in baseball history emerged from their first 12 starts with an ERA lower than that – Dutch Leonard at 0.83 in 1914 and Al Benton at 0.89 in 1945. Walter Johnson matched the 0.93 mark in 1918.

* Jimenez has two stretches this season of at least 25-straight scoreless innings. He is the first pitcher to accomplish that since Jack Morris in 1986.

Could Jimenez truly have a shot at the first 30-win season since 1968 (Denny McLain) and a chance to establish the modern day ERA mark that is currently held by Bob Gibson (1.12 in 1968)? Not on your life. The average #1 starter makes about 34 starts with the five man rotation currently used. Back when McLain won 30 teams used four starters, and in his magical ’68 campaign he took the hill 41 times – a total he matched the next season as well when he won a mere 24 games. Simply put, Jimenez will not be given enough starts to reach that hallowed number. As for the ERA, I think this one is even easier to make a call on than the win mark, and as I just stated he has no shot whatsoever of reaching the win plateau. I could throw out all kinds of logic, not the least of which being that what Ubaldo is doing right now strains credulity or the fact that his career ERA mark is 3.38, but the truth is obvious. He has no shot at maintaining his current ERA. The real question is how far will he fall off as we move forward?

Clearly, Jimenez has mastered pitching at Coors Field (1.29 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), hardly surprising given his boring, sinking 97 mph heat. That stuff will play anywhere. However, it should be noted that eight of his 12 starts have come on the road, so it will be interesting to see how his numbers are affected once he starts toeing the rubber in Colorado more frequently though, surprisingly, he owns better ratios at home in (3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP) than on the road (3.55 and 1.29).

Can he continue to hold hitters to a 12.6 percent line drive rate (career 17.5), with a BABIP that is .054 points below his career mark? Can he maintain his current LOB percentage of 92.4 percent which is nearly 20 percentage points better than his career rate (73.7 percent)? Can he keep the ball in the yard with such aplomb moving forward given that his current 2.9 percent HR/F rate is light years below his 7.5 percent career mark?

I wish Jimenez all the luck in the world, and it would be utterly amazing to see him keep up this level of performance over the course of the season. Alas, he has virtually no shot at maintaining the historic pace that he has set so far, but I gotta tell ya, I’ll be watching with an extreme level of interest as he gives it his best shot.

By Ray Flowers