Player Profile: Bryce Harper

What Bryce Harper did last season was amazing. Anytime a player hits 22 homers with 18 steals and 98 runs scored that is one heck of a season. When a player does that as a rookie it’s a rather remarkable season. When a player does that as a 19 year old it’s a season for the record books. Will the next great one build on a special rookie season in year two, and if so, how far up the mountain can he climb in 2013?

A look at some facts from 2012.

Bryce Harper hit 22 homers. Only one player 19 or younger ever hit more – Tony Conigliaro had 24 in 1964.

Bryce Harper had 59 RBIs. That is the 8th highest total ever for a player 19 years of age or younger (Phil Cavarretta had 82 in 1935).

Bryce Harper scored 98 runs. Only one player 19 or younger scored more (Buddy Lewis had 100 in 1936).

Bryce Harper had 18 steals. Only one player in the Modern Era (since 1901), 19 or younger, has ever stolen more bags (Ty Cobb stole 23 in 1906).

Bryce Harper had a .817 OPS as a 19 year old. No one 19 or younger ever had a better mark in a season of 502 plate appearances.

Given those facts, Harper must be looked at as an elite talent capable of immense things, the same point of view every person that has ever watched him play a game on the baseball field agrees with. This 19 year old kid was two steals and two runs from a 20/20, 100 season. Hell, Alex Rios and Carl Crawford have never done that. The question with Harper is how good will he be?

If we remove his name and age and just focus on the numbers, here is what we find.

He struggled against lefties hitting .240 with a .300 OBP and mere .415 SLG. He also struck out 51 times in just 183 at-bats against lefties.

He posted a BB/K mark of 0.47 which is basically league average. When he swung at a pitch that was thrown inside the strike zone he made contact 87 percent of the time, a solid number for a player who also owns a 20.1 percent K-rate.

His GB/FB ratio was 1.35, a bit higher than the league average. Moreover, his 33 percent fly ball rate was two percentage points below the league average making his homer total pretty impressive. The reason he was able to go deep 22 times was due to a solid 16.2 percent HR/F ratio. Anyone who has ever watched him hit knows that is a number he is more than capable of repeating and/or improving upon moving forward.

But we cannot remove the name on the back of the jersey from this discussion, can we? Much like the case with Mike Trout, these two players are once in a generation talents who just so happen to be starting their careers at the same time. Is it fair to either, particularly Harper since that’s who this piece is about, to treat him like every other youngster who has ever played the game? If I was to do that I would say that we should expect some moderate growth in year two. The average may not improve much, not until he cuts down the walks a bit and learns to be a bit more patient, but a repeat is well within the realm of the possible. I would also say that looking at the totality of the evidence that another run to 20/20 would be possible, though I would be a bit concerned about there being any homer growth since the fella didn’t hit as many fly balls as I would like to see.

Again though, is it fair to do this? Can we simply remove our beliefs/eyes when it comes to a generational talent like Harper? Do we change the way we evaluate players because of who Harper is and the fact that he accomplished so many amazing things as a mere 19 year old? That’s the exact point that analysis breaks down and the data might not be sufficient to explain what we are witnessing.

Is Harper capable of hitting .300?
NO. At this stage of his development he can be pitched to. If pitchers hit their spots they can not only get him out, but make him look bad in the process.

Is Harper capable of hitting 30 homers?
YES. Will he? Not without hitting more fly balls.

Is Harper capable of 20 steals?
YES. He nearly got there last year as a player with no big league experience an as one who got base at a .340 clip.

Is Harper capable of 80+ RBIs?
YES. The Nationals would seem to have a pretty stacked order, but it will still be tough for him to knock in 80+ runs if he hits out of the #2 hole (his spot for 117 of his 139 games last season).

Is Harper capable of 100 runs scored?
Duh. He had 98 last season. Hitting second obviously helps him in this category.

So what would you pay on draft day for a guy who could go .280-25-75-100-20. An awful lot right? I’m not saying that Harper will hit all five of those numbers. I’m also not saying he’ll fall short in all five categories. I merely use those numbers as a way to illustrate how most people will be viewing him on draft day which means if you want to roster Harper this year you will have to be willing to spend a top-25 selection. I don’t think I will be able to join that party. I know that he is an immense talent who we might one day look back on and be able to tell our children that we saw him play from the first day of his career, but I also know that he is only 20 years old and has a total of 139 games played at the big league level. I’d rather spend a top-25 selection on a player that I felt more secure about producing across the board than on Harper, even if there is a good chance that he ends up fulfilling those lofty expectations in 2013.

 

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ross Detwiler

If you have a young son the first thing you need to make sure of, besides that he has all his fingers and toes, is that he does things left-handed. Why? You know why. In sports it seems like the keys to success are often controlled by port siders, and nowhere is that more apparent than in baseball where lefty hurlers seem to last forever despite less than ideal skills. Ross Detwiler may be 28 years old and in his athletic prime, but he also pitches like an old lefty with his dizzying array of sinkers inducing contact away from the fat part of the bat. Looked at as somewhat of a spare part type/swingman for the Nationals in 2012, Ross ended up making 27 starts (33 appearances) during which time he displayed a penchant for getting batters out. So let’s take a look at the lefty and see what’s what.

In six appearances out of the pen Ross pitched 13.1 innings with a 1.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, better numbers than he posted while working as a starter (3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 151 IP). Still, it’s not like his numbers as a starting hurler are anything to turn your nose up at – they’re pretty darn solid numbers actually. In fact, if you add it all together you end up with a 3.40 ERA, better than Mat Latos (3.48), an a 1.22 WHIP which was better than Ryan Vogelsong (1.23). Ross also wasn’t that easy to hit as his .240 BAA was 14th in the NL among pitchers who threw at least 162 innings. That ain’t bad at all. In addition, he generated a 50.8 percent ground ball rate that was 9th in the NL. Detwiler also walked 2.85 batters per nine innings, and while that isn’t a mark that is going to cause anyone to buy stock it’s a solid mark nonetheless (the NL average was 3.08 in 2012). All in all, that’s a pretty darn good season for a guy who was most certainly not drafted in mixed leagues.

So what’s the problem? Well, from a fantasy perspective there is one big time issue – Detwiler doesn’t strike anyone out. He had 105 Ks as a starting pitcher which was just 21 more strikeouts than teammate Tyler Clippard who threw 91.2 fewer innings as Detwiler posted a 5.75 K/9 mark which was nearly two full batters below the league average of 7.69. Moreover, despite the complete lack of excitement for his K-rate, it should be noted that it’s actually a four year best. Yeah, not good. The result was a 2.02 K/BB mark, again well below the league average of 2.50. Put simply, he doesn’t miss enough bats and therefore he’s really only going to be able to help anyone in three of the five fantasy pitching categories at best (ERA, WHIP, Wins).

Let’s hit on those ratios for a moment. Put bluntly, his ERA should have been a run higher if you ask xFIP (4.34). That’s not hard to understand given his less than league average K/9 and K/BB. He also had a league average left on base percentage of 70.8 percent which doesn’t excite, and the same can be said of his league average 9.0 percent HR/F ratio. Add to that party a somewhat advantageous .263 BABIP, .019 points below his career level and a career best, and the picture starts to come into focus. The cherry on top is that a guy who owns a 20.2 percent career line drive rate somehow held batters to a 16.4 percent mark in 2012. I’m not in the habit of calling anyone lucky, but let’s just say that Ross was rather fortunate in 2012.

A lefty who is capable of eating up innings out of the bullpen or taking the bump every five days as a starter, one who can induce a crap ton of grounders, is going to have a job in the big leagues for a long time. However, Detwiler is likely best served as a league only option in 2013. He doesn’t have the stuff to rack up even league average strikeout total, and with that being the case wins become a huge part of his fantasy outlook, and we know how random wins and loses can be. It’s also fair to posit a regression in the ratios categories, and if that happens he’s nothing other than a league average arm making him, well, pretty darn average in the fantasy game.

By Ray Flowers