Player Profile: Francisco Liriano

Oh how I wish my left-handed father had pushed me to be left-handed as a child. Take the case of Francisco Liriano who was at one time one of the best hurlers in the game (his 2006 season is one of legend as he had a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.71 K/s per nine, a 4.50 K/BB ratio an a 12-3 record before blowing his arm out). Despite his talent, the road has been extremely bumpy the last few years for Mr. Liriano. There have been periods when he has locked things in, but the majority of the last few years has been spent with middling production being par for the course. I mean, what would you think about the following player if you didn’t have a name associated with it and just looked at the numbers?

Career: 53-54, 4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.38 K/BB

I know what I would think, and it’s not kind. Since 2005 when Liriano began his career here are the numbers of the average AL hurler: .500 winning percentage, 4.26 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 2.15 K/BB. Those numbers paint Liriano as a league average arm. The numbers worsen, substantially, the past two years as Liriano has gone 15-22 with a 5.23 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 1.72 K/BB ratio. Given the dearth of effective production on the hill, especially over the course of the past couple of years, is there any reason to expect Liriano to be worth starting on a consistent basis in 2013?

Long a strikeout arm, Liriano has two issues working somewhat against him. First, his velocity is down two mph from his heyday of 95 mph (on the plus side he did add over a mph to his heater in 2012 when compared to 2011). The second issue is that his velocity on his slider is down two mph. This was the pitch that made him, like Steve Carlton in his salad days, nearly untouchable when he was on. The pitch is still effective but it lacks that extra giddy up that made it such a dominating pitch a few years back. There are still days when it all comes together for Liriano, it happens every year (he struck out 25 batters in back-to-back starts in July), but for the most part he’s just not as effective because, chiefly, his stuff isn’t quite as good.

This loss of stuff is normal for all hurlers as they age. Usually, if a guy is an elite talent, they learn how to work around this. Maybe they add another pitch. Maybe they study game film more closely. Maybe they change up the patterns they use to attack batters. In the case of Liriano maybe he studies more and maybe he changes up his patterns, but he is still a predominantly two pitch hurler who will also throw the change up to keep batters off balance. His 2012 usage (50 percent fastball, 33 percent slider, 17 percent change up) is virtually identical to his career marks (51/31/18). The biggest issue probably isn’t a lack of growth with this lefty, it’s been an inability to consistently locate his pitches.

From 2005-10 Liriano walked an average of 3.18 batters per nine innings, a tenth better the AL average during that time. The last two years he’s nearly added two full batters to that mark walking 5.01 batters per nine innings. I could have honestly started and ended this profile with just this number (the amount of pitches he throws inside the strike zone has dipped from 55 percent in 2006 down to 39 percent last year). There is no way a pitcher can be consistently effective if they have an BB/9 mark over five. It just can’t be done (hell, even Mr. Walk, Nolan Ryan, walked 4.67 batters per nine innings). This lack of control does a couple of things. One, Liriano’s WHIP goes up and obviously that leads to an increase in his ERA. Two, his lack of control emboldens batters to spit on his off-speed stuff. Third, it means he’s often forced to pitch to batters behind in the count which means he has to ‘give in’ to the strike zone more than he should – if he can control the pitches. Given all of that, it’s rather amazing to think that he still struck out over a batter per inning in 2012. Moreover, he’s struck out 8.63 batters the past two seasons, not that far off his career 9.06 mark, so it’s clear that when he’s dialed in and gets ahead in the count he can still put batters away.

So what to do with Liriano? Take a shot. He’s still got a pretty impressive arm, even if he doesn’t spin pitches like he did years ago. He’s still more than capable of dominating any lineup on any day, but there is significant downside here. Don’t forget this guy has had an ERA in the 5′s an a WHIP over 1.45 in three of the past four seasons. It doesn’t matter how many punchouts you get with numbers like that. He’s worth a few bucks in mixed leagues, or a reserve round add in snake drafts, but you cannot make him a foundational block for your pitching staff unless your goal is to allow someone else to win the league.

NOTE: Liriano agreed to a 2-year deal reportedly worth $14 million to pitch for the. That’s a solid place to pitch, there’s no pressure there, an a move to the NL all signal that the arrow is pointing up with Liriano.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kevin Youkilis

Kevin Youkilis played for both the Red Sox and the White Sox in 2012, and neither team, the player, or the fantasy owner were happy with how the oft injured 33 year old performed (Youkilis will be 34 in March). Was all the hoopla with Booby, I mean Bobby, Valentine in Boston a mere blip on the road for Youkilis (he did perform better in Chicago)? Can Youkilis resurrect his once bright career, with the Evil Empire no less (he signed a 1-year, $12 million deal to go from the Sox to the Yankees in the most stick it to your face for treating me badly Beantown move he could make), or have injuries and the advance of Father Time relegated Youkilis to the realm of mid round draft picks that you are just hoping will pay off in the fantasy game?

The most obvious issue with Youkilis is his inability to stay on the field. After appearing in 145 games each year from 2006-08, Youkilis dipped to 136 games played in 2009. He then fell to 102 games played in 2010, 120 in 2011 and 122 last season. That means his average the past three years is 115 games a season. You can’t count on a player who is going to miss that much time because even if his rate of production is solid – more on that in a moment – a month an a half of missed games each season is unexceptable even if that player qualifies at multiple spots (Youkilis will be first base and third base eligible next season after appearing in more than 20 gamas at each spot).

A .283 career hitter, Youkilis hit .235 last season which is a dreadful mark by any measure (.233 with the Red S. and .236 with the White S.). A one year fall off? Perhaps. However, considering that he also hit a mere .258 in 2011 we need to investigate further. The first thing I notice is that the Greek God of Walks posted a 10.0 percent BB-rate, the lowest of his career in 2012 (the previous three years that mark was in the 13′s). Youkilis also struck out at the second highest rate of his career, his K-rate was 21.2, and the resulting 0.47 K/BB ratio was a career worst (career 0.67). He will need to rectify that situation immediately if that average is going to get back into the “normal” range for him. Second, his .268 BABIP was also a career worst, and the second straight year under .300 since he posted a mark of .296 in 2011. When you own a career mark of .322 this is a red flag. Oddly, his line drive rate has held steady the past two years at 20 and 20.7 percent (career 21.2) giving him an inkling of hope that perhaps he will be able to return to the world of the living in the batting average category.

As for his power, we’re talking 3-straight year with less than 20 homers. Of course, as I noted above, he’s just not playing enough games to really rack up totals in the counting categories. Given his rate last season – 19 homers in 122 games – if he had appeared in 140 games he would have gone deep 22 times. An issue with the long ball power though is a declining fly ball rate. From 2006-2010 Kevin was uber-consistent with a fly ball rate between 44.3 and 46.7 percent. The last two years that number has dipped to 38 and 36 percent. A one year fall of can be written off to some extent, but when you do it two years in a row, there is concern. At least he is still converting fly balls into homers at a solid rate as evidenced by his last five years of HR/F ratios: 14.9, 16.5, 13.6, 13.3 and 15.7 percent.

On the plus side we also have his rate of production with the White Sox. In 80 games with the Pale Hoes Youkilis went deep 15 times, knocked in 46 runs and scored 47 times. Given a baseline of 140 games that would lead to 26 homers, 81 RBIs and 82 runs scored, levels of production that aren’t at all different than what he was producing in his “salad days.”

I’m a big fan of Youkilis’ game, even if I detest his hideous setup position in the batters box (why in the world didn’t some batting coach at some point simply forbid him from his ludicrous hand position?). However, I’m not blind to what the numbers and what my eyes are telling me. Youkilis has drastically underperformed for two years now, and he’s basically been injured three years running. Is it fair to think that a 34 year old with a wounded ego will be able to turn back the clock? Maybe, but the arrow certainly isn’t tilting to ‘it’s a lock.’ Youkilis will need to regain his approach at the dish in order for the success to return, an I see no reason while he couldn’t do that with health. However, his production must be called into question given declining BABIPs mark and fly ball rates the past two years. Youkilis should be one of those middle round draft selections that you make with little expectation. Take him early enough that you don’t miss out on the dual position threat, but also make sure you roster him at a point where if he repeats his efforts from last season that he doesn’t kill your team. Youkilis is a corner infield option in mixed leagues on the hope that he hasn’t lost his game, that a move to New York and it’s strong hitter’s park will help, and that he is just mad enough to do his best to stick it to the Red Sox while in pinstripes.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: John Danks

John Danks went 8-12 last year with a 4.33 ERA which is apparently causing a lot of people to be wary about rostering him in 2012 (how else can you explain the fact that guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Trevor Cahill are being taken ahead of him according to ADP numbers?). Hopefully I will be able to lay out a convincing case that Danks is not someone you should be fearful of rostering in 2012.

First off, win-loss records are terrible ways to look at a pitcher and try an decide how he performed. Trust me on that one. Even with eight victories last year Danks has still averaged 12 wins the past four years. That’s a solid total even with last years single digit mark.

Danks has a durable arm. Even last season when he struggled with performance an injury he still tossed 170-innings for the fourth straight year. The previous three seasons he threw at least 195 innings each season.

Danks had averaged 157 strikeouts from 2008-10. Last year he dipped to just 135 punchouts so the natural inclination is to think his K-rate slumped so you should be concerned. That’s not the case, an I’m sure that BaseballGuys.com readers already know that. In fact, Danks produced a 3-year high in his K/9 rate in 2012 at 7.13 (his mark the previous two years was 6.69 and 6.85). There’s no concern here.

Danks walk rate last season was 2.43 per nine innings. Guess what? That’s a career best number, half a batter below his 2.94 career rate. Danks’ 2.93 K/BB ratio in 2011 was also a career best mark by the way.

Danks had a 43.8 percent ground ball rate in 2011, his third straight year over 43 percent and slightly above his 4.26 percent career rate. The result was a 1.20 GB/FB ratio just one hundredth off the best mark he had ever posted (1.21 in 2008). Danks actually allowed the second fewest fly balls of his career, percentage wise at 36.4 percent, and his HR/F ratio for the year was 9.9 percent, a direct match for his career mark.

So let’s see if I have this straight when it comes to Danks’ performance in 2011.

A 3-year high in K/9.
A career best BB/9.
A career best K/BB.
A better than career number in GB/FB.
An average HR/F rate.

So why/how were Danks. ERA (4.33) and WHIP (1.34) at four year worsts?

Some thoughts.

(1) Danks’ left on base percentage was 70.1 percent. That’s a career worst (career 73.3 percent).

(2) His batting average on balls in play was .313, a career worst (career .290).

(3) He was unlucky. I know that’s a simplistic way to look at any scenario, but it certainly seems that bad luck may have played a part in Danks’ fall last season in the ratio categories. Take a look at the xFIP of Danks last year (xFIP is normalized to the league level of homers and tracks those outcomes that a pitcher directly has in his control). Danks posted an xFIP of 3.79 which actually is a career best number (career 4.12).

So what do we have in Danks? I believe we have a hurler who is being somewhat overlooked in some respects because people perceive that his performance last year was poor when in truth that simply isn’t the case. If people in your league make the mistake of overlooking Danks consider yourself lucky because you’ll have a shot to roster a pretty darn good hurler on the cheap.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Adam Dunn

“Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10 [Alex Rios]…” That was my opening to my Alex Rios Player Profile from back in November of 2011. Today I’ll complete that thought by discussing the most pathetic performer of 2011 – Mr. Adam Dunn.

Some history.

From 2004-2010 Dunn hit at least 38 homers each year. Only one man in history has a run of more than 7-straight years of hitting 38 or more homers each season. It’s not Babe Ruth who tied with Dunn at seven (1926-32), or Barry Bonds who never did it more than five years in a row (2000-04). The answer to this riddle is actually Rafael Palmeiro (1995-2003).

From 2004-10 Dunn had at least 92 RBI each year. That’s well short of the record of 13-straight such seasons held by Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Alex Rodriguez. Still, only five men were able to hit that total each year from 2004-10: Albert Pujols, Arod, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera and Dunn.

From 2004-10 Dunn scored at least 79 runs each season. Only six others joined Dunn in that group: Bobby Abreu, Teixeira, Pujols, Cabrera, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon.

All told, how many big leaguer posted a line of 38 homers, 92 RBI and 79 runs scored each year from 2004-10? The answer is one – Adam Dunn.

So what the hell happened in 2011 to the then 32 year old slugger? Some thoughts.

Maybe he wasn’t totally comfortable in his new home in Chicago?

Maybe the pressure of a big money deal got to him (4-years, $56 million)?

Maybe he lost confidence when he struggled?

Maybe health woes, like his appendicitis, ruined his timing?

Maybe he didn’t like being the DH? He hit mere .176 with a. 621 OPS in 81 such games (to be honest though, those numbers were better than his overall totals of .159 and .569).

Let’s get past the maybe’s and look at the raw data.

As I’ve laid out, there wasn’t a more consistent power hitter in the game than Dunn. At 32 years of age, in a ballpark that benefits hitters, there was zero reason to expect a collapse in 2011. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to roll the calendar back 12 months and find anyone who had a bad thing to say about Dunn as most expected the move to Chicago to lead to at least, at the very worst, a replication, of his 2010 effort (.260-38-103-85). What happened then?

Did he walk less than normal? Nope. His 15.1 percent walk rate was pretty much a match for his 16.2 percent career rate.

Did he strike out more than normal? Heck yes he did. A career 27.6 K rate is terrible, but last season that number grew to epic proportions as it ended up at 35.7 percent. That was only the second time in his career that the mark was over 29 percent.

Did his hit type change? Not if you judge him by his GB/FB rate which was 0.68, a near identical match to his career rate of 0.71 percent. As for his line drive rate it was 20.0 percent. Not only was that mark his third best since 2003, it was also above his 19.6 career rate. So he hit as many grounders, liners and fly balls as normal. Wait, what? I know, it makes no sense does it? Dunn was pretty much the same hitter as always in terms of these three categories. The real issue though was two-fold. (1) His BABIP shrunk to a career worst .240 (career .292). 2011 was only the second time since 2004 that his BABIP mark was under .276. Given a career norm in the line drive category, that dip in BABIP really isn’t explainable, at least not simply (a loss of bat speed, bad luck, etc.). (2) For each season from 2003-10, Dunn had produced a HR/F ratio of 20.8 percent. In 2011 that number dropped to 9.6 percent. To state is another way, Dunn went from being elite to league average overnight. That just doesn’t happen.

Given the totality of his career, his age, and his home ballpark, I find it nearly impossible to predict another outage in 2012. The question is, how much will Dunn bounce back? Admittedly I’m a big fan of the Big Donkey, but I think the data leads to that point of view. If I had to put a floor on his production I’d think 2002 (.249-26-71-84). However, I’m not ruling out a return to 35-90-90 levels because I really cannot explain what the hell went wrong in 2011. Maybe he ticked off a practitioner of the dark arts who put a whammy on him. I’m not going to draft Dunn as my starter at first base, but if falls out of the top-20 at first base, like he’s currently ranked at Fleaflicker, then sign up Mr. Dunn for my squad.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin is a bit of an enigma. He possesses a nice power bat (4-straight 20 homer seasons), strikes out less than other top level sluggers (just a 15.9 percent K-rate), but never seems to be able to put it together because of one injury after another. Tired of the ups and downs, and looking to go with youth, the White Sox dealt Quentin to the Padres for pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez (neither arm is an elite level prospect). Can the California born Quentin, who was a 3-sport performer at University of San Diego High, be the middle of the order bat that the Padres need?

Quentin’s main bugaboo is ill health. He’s been a “full-time” player for four years, but he’s never appeared in more than 131 games (don’t forget that includes the ability to function as a DH). As a result, he’s averaged a mere 426 at-bats over those four seasons. Obviously the fact that Quentin has been unable to stay on the field consistently is a major concern if you are planning on Quentin being a centerpiece of your fantasy squad in 2012.

The second major issue with Quentin is the fact that, despite having ample power, that he’s going from one of the best homer hitting havens in the game to one of the worst. “He’s got huge power, so he has hit a good number of homers to right, right-center,” GM Josh Byrnes said. “It’s a tall order for any player in Petco, but from center to the left-field foul pole, they’re gone in any park.” That might be so, but let’s not gloss over the facts here Josh. According to Park Indices, Petco comes in at 8th in the NL for right-handed hitters during the 2011 season, an over the past three years that ranking is also 8th. While that might be better than you thought given Petco’s reputation, it was still two percent below the league average the last three years while U.S. Cellular Field, Quentin’s old home, was 38 percent better than the American League average. That’s a massive difference and is should give you pause with Quentin.

The third issue with Quentin is that, honestly, he’s just not that good of a hitter. Quentin has a career batting average of .252. Moreover, he’s hit better than .254 in just one of his six big league seasons. That number doesn’t figure to improve in the NL playing half his games at Petco.

The fourth issue for Quentin is that he has no base stealing speed. Only once has he stolen as many as four bags, and he’s swiped just 16 bags in his career (616 games).

So what do we have with Quentin? Let’s review.

He has shown a propensity to be injured.
He’ll play half his games in a pitcher’s park.
He’s a below average big league hitter in terms of batting average.
He has no stolen base speed.

I’m not suggesting that Quentin has no value. Quentin has hit at least 20 homers in 4-straight seasons with a career best of 36 in 2008, and per 500 at-bats in his career he’s averaged 29 homers and 91 RBI. Remember though Quentin has never, not once, had 500 at-bats in a season. He’s also produced those numbers in the offensive environments of the the desert (the Diamondbacks) and the Windy City (the White Sox). Given his limitations, his home ball yard, and his record of ending up on the trainers table, you would be wise to view Quentin as nothing more than a mid round outfield gamble in mixed leagues. There’s always a chance that some home cooking will inspire him (for example I know I type much better when I’ve had a nice home cooked meal of SPAM and cheese), but in my mind he simply cannot be trusted to be an elite power bat given the particulars of his situation in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mark Buehrle

It seemed like every team in baseball wanted to sign Mark Buehrle this offseason. Why was the bidding so intense for a pitcher who has never been an ace? The most obvious answer is that every team needs pitching, and there were few available options on the market this offseason. The second reason was that, despite never being that ace, Buehrle has long been one hell of an innings eating beast.

WINS
From 2001-11 Buehrle won at least 10 games each season. Only two other men are in that group – CC Sabathia and Javier Vazquez.

From 2001-11 Buehrle won a total of 157 games. Only three men have more victories – Sabathia (176), Roy Halladay (175) and Roy Oswalt (159).

INNINGS
From 2001-11 Buehrle hurled at least 200-innings each season. No other pitcher in baseball had a streak of longer than 7-straight 200 inning efforts the last 11 years (Livan Hernandez and Dan Haren each had a seven year run).

From 2001-11 Buehrle tossed 2,425.1 innings. No man in the game threw more innings (Sabathia was second at 2,364.1 innings).

Those numbers clearly point to the most obvious statement I’ll make in this piece – Buehrle is as stable an option on the hill as there is in the game.

RATIOS
Buehrle owns a career ERA of 3.83, an in the last 11 seasons he’s posted an ERA over 4.28 just one time (4.99 in 2006). He’s also had a mark in the 3′s in eight of the 11 seasons, and for his career his ERA is well below the American League average of 4.43. That’s pretty impressive.

Buehrle has a career WHIP of 1.28. Though he’s been above that mark in three of the last four seasons, he’s also posted a mark over 1.35 in only two of the past 11 seasons. The American League WHIP since 2001 is 1.38 by the way.

STRIKEOUTS
This is where things take a turn for the worse. Buehrle is a solid arm who gets outs and limits runs, but he does that by pitching to contact. Buehrle owns a 5.07 K/9 mark, a full two batters below the big league average. He also has failed to reach his career mark in any of the last three seasons. That’s just awful. As a result his raw strikeout total average for the last three seasons is 104 Ks per season. His former teammate, closer Sergio Santos, had 92 strikeouts last year.

OUTLOOK
Things don’t appear to be any different than they have been over the past decade. Buehrle will take the ball every five days and provide quality innings for the Marlins after signing that four year, $58 million deal. At the same time he is completely deficient in the strikeout department leaving his fantasy value lacking compared to his real world value. The only real concern with Buehrle would be if his arm fell off, and given all the miles on it, that’s always a possibility. But given his decade plus run of health, I’m willing to assume that he is just one of those rare hurlers, like Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine, that just never have arm problems. Maybe it’s because  he throws only throws 85 mph.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 6th, 2011

Things are really heating up at the Winter Meetings, and it appears that the Marlins are plenty serious about being the story to emerge from the festivities. But before I get to that, we had a couple of deals take place in the last 24 hours as pitchers are the target of seemingly every team.

Sergio Santos was an excellent bullpen arm for the White Sox last year. After every other White Sox bullpen arm was seemingly given a shot to handle 9th ining duties, Santos stepped up and solidified the role on his way to 30 saves in 36 chances. He walks too many batters, 4.12 per nine innings last year, but it’s easy to forgive that when you look over at the K/9 column and see 13.07. Santos signed a deal with the White Sox that will pay him only $8.25 million the next three years, though there are three other team options after that for $6 million, $8 million and $8.75 million (basically his team has him under control for 6-years at a cost of about $31 million). That “cheap” cost made him an excellent option to deal for the White Sox, and they did just that Tuesday sending him to the Blue Jays for minor leaguer Nestor Molina (there is no truth to the rumor that he is related to Nestor The Long Eared Christmas Donkey). White Sox fans will be furious at this deal since Molina is likely a couple of years away from being a major player, but after a year at Single and Double-A in which he posted a 12-3 record, 2.21 ERA 10.22 K/9 an a stupendous 9.25 K/BB mark, the future is bright for the  22 year old righty.

Kevin Slowey is someone I’ve long been in the corner of (check out the Player Profile I wrote back on March 28th, 2011). However, two issues have precluded him from reaching the heights that I think he can. (1) The guy just can’t stay healthy. In two of the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 100-innings. (2) He gives up way too many fly balls (48 percent of batted balls in his career), and they leave the yard at a near crippling rate (1.42 homers per nine innings). Therefore, the Rockies move to deal for him makes little sense to me. The Rockies think he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter, but given the enviornment in Colorado Slowey seems like a horrible addition given his long ball woes.

Aaron Harang had a decent season with the Padres going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, the San Diego born righty, who also went to San Diego State, wasn’t able to work out a deal with the Padres. No matter, He’ll end up merely needing to rent a U-Haul truck to move his stuff to Los Angeles after he agreed to a 2-year deal with the Dodgers ($12 million).

Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and the Marlins and the Cardinals are the two teams bidding most heavily for his services. Reports are circulating, including one by Bob Nightingale, that the Marlins have extended an offer to Pujols worth more than $200 million. The Cardinals are still in the mix, but it’s growing more likely by the minute that Pujols’ decision won’t have to be about one team outspending the other, it will be about where he wants to play for the next decade.

Andrew Bailey is on the market, though the Athletics asking price is apparently so high that Bailey may as well not be available. So far it seems like one of those situation where the A’s are saying ‘if you overpay we’ll give him to you’ but few teams seems willing to meet the exorbinant price the A’s are asking for in return for their often dominating closer who is under their control through 2014.

Jimmy Rollins was thought to be almost as good as gone from the Phillies 36 hours ago. There is now some growing optimism that he could return, though it still seems like the club is unwilling to go 5-years on a deal like Rollins wants. If the Phils are unable to come to an agreement they will look to add Aramis Ramirez while at the same time moving Placido Polanco to free up some cash. If Rollins returns, look for the Phils to go with Polanco as their third baseman and pass on Ramirez.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alex Rios

Any list of the biggest failures in 2011 has to start with Adam Dunn (.159-11-42 in 496 at-bats. I still can’t believe he was that atrocious). However, a teammate of Dunn’s also has to be in the top-10, and he is the topic of my piece today.

Alex Rios was an elite performer in 2010 in his first full season with the White Sox. Rios hit a solid .284, socked 21 homers and knocked in 88 runs. He also managed to record 89 runs scored, and for good measure he tossed in 34 steals. Those numbers left him as the only man in baseball to go .280-20-85-85-30 in 2010. So how in the world did he go from being an elite option in 2010 to an embarrassment in 2011 as he produced a line of .227-13-44-64-11? The knee jerk reaction is that he played over his head in 2011 and that he simply sucks. However, that’s far too simplistic a look for me.

BATTING AVERAGE
Rios has hit .275 for his career. From 2006-08 he hit at least .291 each season, and four times in five years from 2006-10 he hit at least .284. So how in the world did he fall to .227 in ’11? Did he fail to square up the ball? In fact, he did a decent job in that category. Rios posted a 18.4 percent line drive mark that is just 0.8 below his career rate. It was also a 3-year high. Did he have problems with pitch recognition? Well, he did walk at his worst rate (4.7 percent), but since he also struck out less than ever before (2.5 percent better than ever before actually) his 0.40 BB/K mark was right on his career average of 0.39. Was his ground ball to fly ball ratio jacked up? No it wasn’t. Rios posted a 1.08 GB/FB mark, right in line with expectations given his 1.14 career mark. So why the hell did his average dip .050 points in 2011? Can you say bad luck? Rios produced a .237 BABIP despite pretty much everything else looking “normal.” That BABIP was a career worst, it had never been below .273, and was light years removed from his .306 career mark. What I’m saying is that, honestly, Rios didn’t deserve the batting average he produced in 2011.

HOME RUNS
I mentioned Rios’ GB/FB rate above and how it was stable when compared to his career rate. The same could be said about his fly ball rate. Rios owns a mark of 37.7 percent in his career an in 2011 he posted a 39.3 rate. So if he hit as many fly balls as normal, why the dip in his homer rate? Well, he undershot his HR/F rate of 8.7 percent with a mark of 7.0, a seven year low. That certainly had a large part to do with it.

RBI/RUNS SCORED
It’s pretty easy here. When you don’t get hits, it’s hard to knock in runs. When you don’t get hits or take walks to get on base, you just don’t score runs. Just think of it this way. Rios posted a .265 OBP in 2011. His career batting average is .275. Makes no sense right? For the record, his career OBP is still a poor .323, but it’s vastly superior to the embarrassing number he posted in ’11. For the record Part II: from 2006-10 Rios averaged 81 RBI and 85 runs scored a season.

STEALS
Rios swiped a career best 34 bags in 2010 and he also stole 32 bases in 2008. Moreover, from 2008-10 he averaged 30 steals a year so he’d clearly established himself as a fantasy force in that category. So what happened in 2011? You do remember that his OBP was .265 right? He just wasn’t ever on base to steal a bag, and even when he tried to run his success rate was awful at 64.7 percent (his success rate the three previous years were 80.0, 82.8 and 70.8 percent).

Alex Rios will be 31 years old in February, so he’s certainly not at an age when skills erosion seems the likely culprit for his 2011 failures. Rios though has always run hot and cold, it’s just how it is with him, and it’s something you have to be prepared to live with if you roster him. Unfortunately, his cold streak last year lasted almost the entire season. Still, there seems to be little reason to doubt that 2012 should produce better numbers because, if truth be told, he really wasn’t that far “off” in 2011 despite the horrible numbers he ended the year with. Buy him on the cheap, cause he will be cheap, and you’ll likely reap the benefits of a player who will enjoy a nice bounce back season.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 19, 2011

Photo by Scott Ableman

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I have one roster spot to speculate saves. In order please rank Mitchell Boggs, Sergio Santos and Drew Storen?
– @5wallace

Ever get the feeling that you’re Bill Murray in Groundhog Day? You remember the movie where Murray is forced to live the same day over and over again, right? I ask because I’ve literally answered questions about Boggs and Santos for days now, and no matter how many times I do, someone always asks again 30 minutes later. I’m tempted to say this is to be the definitive answer and never address it again… we’ll see.

A review of the White Sox bullpen

Matt Thornton: 0-2, 4 BS, 7.94 ERA, 2.82 WHIP
Chris Sale: 2-0, 1 BS, 7.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
Jesse Crain: 0-1, 0 BS, 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
Sergio Santos: 0-0, 0 BS, 0.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP

Thornton still has an elite arm, but he’s been awful this year. When a guy starts out this bad it’s nearly impossible for his manager to turn back to him in the 9th unless everyone else fails.

Sale has a terrific 9:1 K/BB ratio right now, but he’s given up 11 hits in 7.1 innings and has a scant 30.2 innings in his big league career. Don’t forget, the future for this guy long-term is in the rotation.

Crain is a solid big league hurler who owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 390.1 innings, but he also has only three saves in 382 appearances.

Santos is pitching the best of any arm in the bullpen. Batters are hitting only .167 off him, and he has 11 Ks in just 8.2 innings.

A review of the Cardinals’ bullpen

Ryan Franklin: 0-2, 4 BS, 11.57 ERA, 2.14 WHIP
Jason Motte: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Trevor Miller: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Miguel Batista: 1-0, 0 BS, 1.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Eduardo Sanchez: 8 Ks in 3 IP
Mitchell Boggs: 0-0, 0 BS, 2.00 ERA, 0.67

Unlike Thornton, Franklin doesn’t own the considerable skills normally associated with locking down the 9th inning (despite his success the last two years). I had no faith in Franklin three weeks ago, and even less in him now.

Motte, thought of as the closer of the future, has struggled with locating his pitches. He’s also been unable to put away batters with only three punchouts in seven innings. He just isn’t “right” at the moment.

Miller has looked solid, but he is a lefty matchup pitcher, not a 9th inning option.

Batista is old, no good and has all of four saves the past five years. If the Cards turn to him, boy are they desperate.

Sanchez has looked phenomenal in his three innings. Still, Tony La Russa rarely relies on rookies late in games.

Boggs has looked terrific thus far with an impressive 12.00 K/9 mark and a 4.00 K/BB ratio through six appearances.

A review of the Nationals’ bullpen

Sean Burnett: 0-0, 1 BS, 2.35 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Tyler Clippard: 0-0, 2 BS, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
Drew Storen: 1-1, 0 BS, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP

Burnett has done nothing to lose work in the ninth inning, and he has three of the teams four saves. However he’s a lefty, and teams usually try to avoid portsiders in the 9th.

Clippard has an impressive 13 Ks in 11 innings over nine appearances. He can go more than an inning at at time which likely means he’ll continue to function in a setup role.

Storen is the closer of the future for the Nats, and he has looked really good since the bright lights of the regular season turned on. I’m still fully confident that he will end the year as the team leader in saves.

If I was choosing between the three arms I’d align them Storen, Boggs and Santos.

Do you think Howie Kendrick will continue to hit for the power he has shown so far this year?
– @cliffbeach21

It ain’t gonna happen. The past two years Kendrick has hit 10 homers each campaign making his five homers in 16 at-bats this season a shocking development. All you need to know about what is going on here is to look at his HR/F category. In his career he is a slightly below big league average producer with a 7.9 percent mark. This year that mark is up over 35 percent. There’s no chance that will continue – zilch (to compare, Ryan Howard’s career mark is 29.5 percent). With his hot start 20 homers is possible, but thinking 15 is still a safer bet.

Mike Leake still rosterable in leagues that penalize caught stealing?
– @jeffonsports

How could I not post this question in my article? I’d suggest that you check to see if your league counts caught stealing on the same level as dollars. If so, his theft of nearly $60 dollars worth of clothes could create a hole he would be unable to recovery from.

Dan Haren for Jay Bruce- who is the better fantasy player for the rest of the year?
– @jabisamra

When you go to the store to buy a TV do you spend $1000 on that 50 inch plasma television you know will deliver solid quality since you’ve had a plasma for a decade, or do you go for the new technology and spend $1700 on a similarly equipped LCD television? That’s kind of like what is going on here.

Dan Haren is an ace – period. He’s off to a tremendous start yet again this year with a 4-0 record, 1.16 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 13.50 K/BB ratio through five appearances. Far from an April surger who doesn’t have a track record, this guy has been a star for years. From 2005-10 Haren is first in baseball with 203 starts, second in innings pitched (1,343, eight behind CC Sabathia), third in strikeouts (1,176) and tied for sixth in wins (85). There may not be a more stable arm in the game.

Bruce was a superstar at the end of last year hitting .306 with 15 homers over his last 58 games causing many to go all-in at the draft table this year. So far that bet hasn’t been rewarded with performance on the field as Bruce has managed to hit a .268 with two homers and six RBI in 14 games. He’s also continued a troubling trend in his young career – a propensity to rack up strikeouts quickly. Owner of a career strikeout rate of 25.6 percent, Bruce has performed even worse this year with a 32.1 percent mark. He’s also hit far too many balls into the air with a scary 59 percent fly ball are. Most seem to have also forgotten that coming into the year that Bruce had 12 steals and 13 caught stealing, and in more than 1,300 big league at-bats he has hit just .257 so there are plenty of warts with this youngster.

Bruce still has plenty of time to post that 30-100 season many thought was coming this year, but I’m much less certain about his 2011 outlook than I’m with the ultra consistent Haren who just keeps on doing it year after year. Take Haren.

By Ray Flowers

Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers