Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7, 2010

With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.

Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.

Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?

Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.

Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.

Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.

Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.

Why is No One Paying Attention?

Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.

By Ray Flowers

Top-20 OFs for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for us to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-20 Outfielders for 2011, focusing on two players that I was called out on in the article (I jest of course because Ted and I, more than anyone else on staff, seem to agree on a whole lot of this baseball stuff).

ALEX RIOS

Rios was ranked 5th, 8th twice, and 10th by the other four voters whereas I had him at 15th. Why was I lower on him than everyone else? My thoughts.

(1) I’m a big believer in consistency, and Rios has never been associated with that term in his life. In 2009 he hit .199 over his last 41 games to finish the year on an extreme down note. He wasn’t anywhere near that bad in 2010 but he did bat a puny .258 in the second half. In fact, he always seems to tire in the second half as his batting average dips .021 points after the All-Star break.

(2) His power isn’t anywhere near elite. Only twice has Rios hit 20-homers – he hit 21 in 2010 and 24 in 2007. With his build, and swing, more has always been expected in this category. However, Rios is about league average in his fly ball rate (career: 37.5 percent) and his HR/F mark (career: 8.9 percent), so he’ll likely be nothing more than a 20 homer threat, not that there is anything wrong with residing at that level. Speaking of a lack of consistency, he hit 11 homers in his first 47 games only to go deep a mere 10 more times in his last 100 games in 2010.

(3) He’s never been more than a solid producer of runs and RBI. Don’t get me wrong, there aren’t many guys out there who you can legitimately book for 80 and 80, but it should be pointed out that Rios has been under 80-RBI twice in the past three years, and he has averaged 81 runs scored the past three years.

(4) While he doesn’t strikeout too frequently (18.2 percent), he also doesn’t walk much (6.5 percent). As a result his career BB/K mark is 0.39, well below the big league average of about 0.50.

(5) Rios just doesn’t hit that many balls on a line. For the past two years he has failed to post a LD-rate of even 17 percent (the big league average is 19-20 percent). His career mark is also an ordinary 19.3 percent. Rios also owns a 1.15 GB/FB ratio, which again, is within hailing distance of the big league average.

(6) And finally, there is this. Here are his 3-year averages compared to Bobby Abreu

A.Rios: .275-18-79-81-30
Abreu: .281-18-94-95-25

I’m not saying I’d take the aging Abreu over Rios straight up, I wouldn’t, I’m just pointing out that while people reach on Rios in 2011 I’ll just wait five rounds and grab Bobby Abreu thank you.

JOSE BAUTISTA

Ted was totally right when he wrote “It was likely with great reluctance that Ray ranked him [20th].” Just how right was Ted with that line of thought? I won’t say he was as accurate as Copernicus who correctly postulated that the Sun, and not the Earth, was at the center of the universe, but he was pretty darn close. In fact, can I have a re-vote? There is very little chance that I will ever rank Bautista this high again, chalk it up to World Series insanity (my Giants, as you know, were playing in it) so enjoy it while it lasts Jays’ fans. I won’t rehash my thoughts on why Bautista will be a bust in 2010 here, I’ll instead just point you to my Breaking Down: Jose Bautista piece which elucidates my position very concisely including this rather memorable line. “Will Bautista be as productive in 2011 as he was in 2010? If he is, I’ll pose for Playgirl.”

I should have read my own article before I submitted my vote.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.

Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town

Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS

Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.

Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well

Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.

On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).

Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.

2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB

If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.

Who Am I?

I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.

I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.

I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.

I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.

Any idea who I might be?

No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?

I pitch for the Dodgers.

I’ve been in the United States for three years.

My name is Hiroki Kuroda.

Will someone please show me some respect?

Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 18, 2010

(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.

(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.

(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.

(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.

(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).

(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play

(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May26, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury might be headed back to the DL.

(2) Bobby Jenks continues to struggle in 9th. Is it time for Matt Thornton?

(3) Brian Roberts to report to work on Friday.

(4) Carlos Ruiz dealing with some shoulder pain.

(5) J.A. Happ still a ways away from return.

(6) Max Scherzer finding his groove in minors.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May24, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano tosses 73 pitches in simulated game. Hopes to return to rotation next week.

(2) Erik Bedard suffered a setback this weekend. Shocking.

(3) Homer Bailey, John Maine placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.

(4) Mat Latos 0.93 ERA, 0.55 WHIP in his last four starts.

(5) Alfredo Simon hurts hamstring. Orioles may not have to turn to Cla Meredith and Will Ohman in 9th.

(6) Gordon Beckham to remain in the bigs.

(7) Mike Cameron will return to the Red Sox on Tuesday.

(8) With Clint Barmes struggling to hit, Rockies are interested in bring back Kaz Matsui.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April22, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano moved to bullpen for Cubs.

(2) Jacoby Ellsbury has four fractured ribs. What does that mean for is recovery?

(3) Dallas Braden continues great early season work against the Yankees.

(4) Prince Fielder goes deep for first time in 54^th at-bats.

(5) Brewers destroy Pirates 20-0.

(6) Scott Baker has rough outing, or did he?

(7) Carlos Quentin demoted to 6^th in order. Andruw Jones takes his spot in third hole.

(8) Brian Fuentes still closer in Anaheim.

(9) Mike Lowell gaining on David Ortiz?

(10) Ryan Zimmerman dealing with another hammy issue.

Opening Day – 2010

With Opening Day 2010 finally upon us, I’ll hit nine quick stories that caught my fancy.

(1) Albert Pujols makes MVP statement.

(2) Jason Heyward hits HR, makes history.

(3) Johan Santana cruises in first start.

(4) Carlos Gonzalez four hits for Rockies.

(5) Carlos Gomez four hits (incl. HR) and a steal.

(6) Garrett Jones blasts two homers.

(7) Shaun Marcum takes no-hitter into 7^th inning.

(8) Jason Frasor blows first save for Blue Jays.

(9) Mark Buehrle tosses 7 scoreless against Indians.

By Ray Flowers

Finding Sanity in the Madness

It’s been a long week. I’ve been busy as hell with work trying to get all my ducks in a row so I can head off to Las Vegas next week for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, and I seem to have pulled a muscle in my chest while I was maxing out my bench press (I think I had two 10 lbs plates on both sides). I know, it’s a tough life I lead isn’t it? If the biggest worries I have are about whether or not I can do 10 reps or 12 on the bench, or whether or not I can finish that massive margarita from Paris Las Vegas (that thing is like two feet tall in the shape of the Eiffel Tower), then life isn’t all bad. I know that drink doesn’t sound too masculine by the way, but who wouldn’t want to get bombed on $20 – am I right?

Some sports related thoughts after that random opening stanza.

* So much for Lance Berkman’s knee being OK. Turns out he will need minor knee surgery which could keep him out of action for 2-4 weeks, though Berkman still insists he can make opening day. “I don’t anticipate having any lingering effects from it. They said it’s about a three-to-four-week recovery period, so I’m hoping it’s closer to three weeks and I will be ready for Opening Day.” By the way, one of my expert league teams that was drafted last week has Berkman, Brian Roberts and Russell Martin – all injured – on it. Gotta love those early preseason drafts don’t you?

** I have nothing to say about Jesse Carlson. I just loved the picture so much that I had to find a way to bring up his name. What is that, My Little Pony?

* The hype machine continues to motor along in overdrive with Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban fireballer of the Reds. He struck out two in two scoreless innings again the Dodgers on Friday, and his fastball was once again recorded at 100 mph. As they say you can’t teach heat, and with each solid outing the temptation grows for the club to open the year with him on the roster. I think it would make sense for him to start in the minors if for no other reason than to allow him time to acclimatize himself to the American way of life, but here is a very important comparison that I haven’t seen listed anywhere – Chapman is actually 19 days older than the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.

* Bobby Jenks gave up five runs while recording two outs on Friday running his spring performance to seven runs in 1.2 innings. He’s lost weight and changed his outlook to improve his life, but let’s hope he didn’t leave his focus somewhere in the offseason.

* The Mets are a disaster. Contradictory news on the health of Carlos Beltran in the offseason followed up by the latest setback with Jose Reyes are but two of the biggest issues the club is dealing with. I’m no doctor and I know they often rule things out 1-by-1 cause they themselves don’t really know what’s going on sometimes, but the club from New York certainly seems to be having an inordinate number of issues with the diagnosis of injuries and the dissemination of the results.

* Mike Napoli hit his fourth homer on Friday. The guy can rake. Problem is his defense is only so-so which has limited his ability to be in the lineup every day (Jeff Mathis has the exact opposite issue, he can field but he ain’t so good with a bat in his hands). It’s probably sheer folly, but if Napoli were to garner 400 at-bats this season, while maintaining his career levels, he would produce a season of about .256-24-66. You know how many catchers reached all three of those levels last season? The answer is one – Joe Mauer.

Here are links to some of the recent stories that I have penned for those of you who need a little something to read over the weekend.

Breaking Down: Jhonny Peralta.

Breaking Down: Cody Ross.

Breaking Down: Alfonso Soriano.

Is there anything to the belief that 27 year old players blow up merely because of their age? I give my thoughts in two pieces.

27-Year-Olds: Hitters.
27-Year-Olds: Pitchers.

These two articles give my thoughts on why you should pass on some of the guys being taken early in draft since you can likely find similar production much later on.

Taking Sides: First Base.

Taking Sides: Second Base.

By Ray Flowers