Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some key players that have started off the season really hot, but tell you what you can really expect from them the rest of the season.
NBA: Streaming players for the fantasy playoffs?
MLB: Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Coco Crisp, Wilin Rosario, Chris Heisey, Matt Harvey, Dan Straily, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson
Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, I’ll also be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 9th.
To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.
CATCHERS
1. John Buck
2. Wilin Rosario
Not only does Buck have three homers and 12 RBIs in just seven games (the most RBIs in Mets history over the first seven games of the season), but he’s facing Cliff Lee, a pitcher who he has hit .292 with three homers against in 48 at-bats.
The Rockies’ backstop is hitting .350 with three homers on the year, and Rosario also has four hits, including a home run, in nine at-bats against Tim Lincecum.
FIRST BASE
1. Todd Helton
2. Adrian Gonzalez
Helton is broken down, old, and generally ineffective. However, he’s always risen to the occasion against Tim Lincecum who he is hitting .359 with a .479 OBP against across 39 at-bats.
I don’t know how this is possible, but in eight at-bats against Clayton Richard A-Gone has only gone back to the dugout once without reaching base. That’s right, he’s got seven hits in eight at-bats (.875 with all the hits being singles). He’s not playing, but Hanley Ramirez has been even better with nine hits in 10 at-bats against Richard.
SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Donovan Solano
Utley is only 2-for-8 against Dillon Gee, but he’s hit .301 with a .918 OPS at home in his career and he’s also managed a .297 average and .888 OPS against righties in his career.
Solano has six hits in his last five games and is batting .292 on the young season. He’s also produced four hits, including two homers, in seven at-bats against Kris Medlen.
THIRD BASE
1. Juan Uribe
2. Chris Johnson
Uribe flat out kills it against Clayton Richard as he’s hit .385 with a 1.159 OPS, including two homers, against the lefty in 26 at-bats.
Johnson is only 1-for-3 against Wade LeBlanc in his career, but he had three hits Monday and his career numbers against lefties say he would produce about 78 RBIs over 550 at-bats.
SHORTSTOP
1. Jed Lowrie
2. Ruben Tejada
Tejada has a hit in three of his last four games, and on the year he has five walks versus four strikeouts. He’s also had a bunch of success against Cliff Lee with six hits in 13 at-bats (.462).
According to ESPN, Lowrie hasn’t sung and missed the last five games covering a total of 31 swings. He’s also produced nine line drives in the 19 balls he’s put into play.
OUTFIELD
1. Jon Jay
2. Jeff Francoeur
Jay is hitting .242 on the young season, but he’s a career .299 hitter who is about to face Bronson Arroyo, a hurler who he has 10 hits in 25 at-bats against (.400).
Francoeur has hit .316 in 19 at-bats against Mike Pelfrey. Frenchie has also been mildly effective at Kauffman Stadium in his career hitting .271 with 17 homers and 67 RBIs over 569 at-bats.
STARTING PITCHERS
1. Wily Peralta vs. Cubs
2. Kris Medlen vs. Marlins
3. Andy Pettitte vs. Indians
4. Brandon Maurer vs. Astros
Peralta faces the Cubs, and the Cubbies are hitting .186. One-eighty-six, with an OPS of 540 folks. Last season Tim Hudson, he’s a pitcher in case you forgot (though he used to DH in college), hit .218 with a .523 OPS. Just saying.
Medlen isn’t facing the Astros, more on that below, but he is facing an terrible Marlins club that is hitting .228 with a .295 OBP and .298 SLG. They’ve also only gone deep two times while scoring 14 runs in seven games.
Pettitte has a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 13 starts. In his last six starts against the team from Cleveland he’s also posted a 2.86 ERA.
Maurer looked pretty bad in his first outing as he allowed six runs in six innings, but at this point, how do you not consider any hurler against the Astros? The club from Houston is hitting .201 with a .234 OBP and .275 SLG. Honestly, you can’t be a professional club and do any worse.
To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.
By Ray Flowers
Wilin Rosario came out of relative obscurity to lead all major league catchers in home runs last season with 28 big flies (one more than A.J. Pierzynski). I for one was called out for spending $8 on him in the LABR NL-only league last season. Obviously I had the last laugh on that one. Even so, I’m reluctant to suggest Wilin will be able to match or exceed that power effort in 2013, and that means I’m pumping the breaks just a bit with the outlook of the Rockies’ catcher.
Let’s dig right into it and break down those big flies which are the reason that Rosario stood out so much last season. The position many will take will have two parts. (1) This guy plays half his games in Colorado which is a huge boost to a player’s power output. (2) He’s only got 133 games of big league experience under his belt so the best could easily be yet to come. Point by point.
(1) Rosario hit 18 of his 28 taters at home. That a player had success hitting in Colorado is about as obvious as suggesting that Lacey Chabert is mildly attractive (she’s amazing if you ask this scribe). Coors Field was, according to Park Indices, the 3rd best park in the NL for right handed power hitters to bang one out in 2012 (it was 20 percent better than the league average).
(2) Here’s where the problem comes up. Some history.
In 395 minor league games Rosario went deep 61 times. That breaks down to 21 homers per 135 games. So far in his big league career he has gone deep an average of 32 times per 135 games. I think we’re looking at a small sample size skewing the numbers, don’t you? Maybe you don’t, that’s probably why you think I’m off in suggesting that Rosario isn’t likely to maintain his homer pace from last season. Are you aware that he went deep 28 times in 396 at-bats last season? If he kept up that pace over 500 at-bats we’d be talking about a 35 homer season. There have only been three 35 homer seasons by a catcher in the 21st century by the way (Mike Piazza had two, Javier Lopez had one).
Normally when a guy hits homers at this pace it’s got a lot to do with his ability to convert fly balls into bleacher reachers, and that is the case with Rosario. After posting a 21.4 percent HR/F mark in 16 games in ’11 he backed that up with a 25.5 percent mark in ’12 leaving him with a 25.0 percent career mark. How impressive is that number? Only six other men in baseball were able to post a mark of 25.0 percent in 2012 if they accrued more than 400 plate appearances. Is Rosario this type of elite power hitter? His minor league career track record say it’s possible as he was able to also post a HR/F ratio of 24.1 percent in the minor leagues the past two years. Still, I’m always reluctant to subscribe an elite number to a player with such little experience.
Let’s say that I’m only 80 percent right which would be about 30 percent better than I normally am. Let’s say that Rosario’s HR/F rate regresses to 20 percent in 2013, still an elite number (I should point out that only 22 men in baseball had a 20 percent mark last season in a season of 400 plate appearances). The real issue is that Rosario simply doesn’t lift the ball enough. The big league fly ball rate is about 36 percent. Last year Rosario’s fly ball rate was 36.5 percent (career 36.9). He’s merely a league average fly ball hitter (the last two years his fly ball mark in the minors was about 30 percent). If he doesn’t maintain his elite HR/F ratio then he will struggle to go deep 25 times, even with a season of 450 at-bats (he had 396 last year remember). It’s not that he won’t have a shot to go deep 25+ times in 2013, it’s just that a lot of things will have to break for him to get there.
As for his batting average he hit .270 last year, just ahead of his .267 career minor league mark. That’s pretty standard fair for a catcher, especially one with power, so there’s no reason to be overly concerned. However, there’s also little to go on if you are expecting growth in this category. Wilin, and yes the guy spells his name with on “L,” posted a line drive rate of 17.5 percent in the minors in 2011. He then followed that up with a 17.3 percent mark in 2012 leaving his 133 game big league ledger at 17.6 percent. It’s pretty clear this guy isn’t wrapping out liners like the second coming of Larry Walker. A 17 percent line drive rate is well below the big league average of 19-20 percent, and it’s indicative of a .262 hitter (his career mark). Rosario has also whiffed a lot, 119 times in 450 big league at-bats, and that also doesn’t speak to growth in the batting average category.
Rosario is a solid option at catcher for the 2013 season. Much like Salvador Perez though (see Perez’s Player Profile), I fear he will be over-drafted in 2013 (I ran a poll about the relative value of Wilin on the last day of the 2012 calendar to illustrate my point). Rosario should not be drafted with the expectation that he will substantially improve upon last years numbers. In fact, I’m not even suggesting that it would be wise to expect a full repeat of his 2013 efforts unless he racks up 100 more at-bats to help mask the per at-bat drop off. Like I wrote, Rosario is a solid option behind the dish but his breakout 2012 effort is his ceiling for now.
By Ray Flowers
Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).
Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE
For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.
For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.
2012 CATCHER Top-10
1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia
Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.
Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).
Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.
McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.
Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.
Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).
Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.
Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).
Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.
Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).
Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.
Miss: Alex Avila
By Ray Flowers
The worst team of all-time.
The worst ever drafted.
How could I possibly be considered an expert drafting this team?
I heard some variance of the above in emails, in tweets, on my show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I heard it from everyone. E V E R Y O N E. I left money on the table (a mistake I owned up to in my review of the draft). I had a corner infielder – Derrek Lee – who didn’t take an at-bat all season. I had Placido Polanco have the worst season of his career. So how did the worst team ever drafted turn out? With three days left in the season the team was tied for first place…
Wilin Rosario, who drew a ton of heat for my $8 bid, blasted 28 long balls with 71 RBIs in a dominating season.
Garrett Jones socked 27 long balls with 86 RBIs – both career bests (the runs batted in tied his total from 2010).
Daniel Murphy did exactly what I expected him to do (.291-6-65-62-10) while qualifying at multiple spots.
Rafael Furcal had 477 at-bats, a three year high. He wasn’t great, but he was pretty solid (.264-5-49-69-12).
Chris Nelson, who I was made fun of mercilessly for drafting, hit .301 with nine homers and 53 RBIs.
So much for my infield being “pathetic” as most thought.
As I said after the draft, the strength of my team was always going to be my outfield. And it was.
Andrew McCutchen: Should finish near the top of the NL MVP voting thanks to his out of sight effort that included a .327 batting average, 31 homers, 96 RBIs, 107 runs scored and 20 steals.
Dexter Fowler: Hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals, 53 RBIs and 72 runs scored.
Alfonso Soriano: 32 HRs, 108 RBIs. I was laughed at for drafting him.
Carlos Quentin: 16 HRs, 46 RBIs. Knew he would be hurt, but 86 games was a 5-year low. If only he had gotten to 115…
Chris Young: Worst season of his career hitting .231-14-41-36-8 from a player who averaged 24 HRs, 81 RBIs, 92 runs and 25 steals in 2010-11. He was literally half the player in 2012 that he had been the previous two years.
Nate McLouth: Even though it’s an NL-only league, you can hold on to players who are dealt to the other league. I held on to him all year and that really paid off in the end as he took off with the Orioles (.268-7-18-35-12 in a mere 55 games).
How was the club on the hill?
Madison Bumgarner: 16 wins, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 191 Ks
Tommy Hanson: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 161 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez: 12-13, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 Ks
Gio Gonzalez: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 207 Ks
Jeff Samardzija: 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 180 Ks
Rafael Betancourt: 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31 saves
Sergio Romo: 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14 saves
Luke Gregerson: 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9 saves
Reserve picks – Two played out.
Ross Detwiler: 10 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 105 Ks
Logan Forsythe: .283, 6 HRs, 8 SBs, 45 runs
So how did it all turn out?
CONGRATS: Steve Moyer of Baseball Info Solutions who won the league.
FINAL RESULT: 2/13. I couldn’t catch Steve but turns out the worst team in the history of fantasy baseball, the team I dubbed the Little Engine That Could, almost brought it home. So there everyone.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Chase Headley now a top-5 3B?
(2) Torii Hunter finds the fountain of youth?
(3) Daniel Murphy finishing strong.
(4) Jeff Keppinger finishing strong.
(5) Pedro Alvarez reaches 30 homers.
(6) Wilin Rosario having remarkable season. Will it continue in 2013?
(7) Paul Goldschmidt and Billy Butler massive weapons facing Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Jose Bautista (wrist) done for the year.
(2) Matt Kemp escapes serious injury.
(3) Todd Frazier will not lose playing time when Joey Votto returns.
(4) Wade Miley starring for D’backs. Should you be wary?
(5) Wilin Rosario having special year.
(6) Greg Holland locking it down for Royals.
(7) Yovani Gallardo on patented hot streak.
By Ray Flowers
Each week on Thursday’s I’ll be answering fantasy baseball questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Drop Carlos Santana for Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, or Jonathan Lucroy?
– @Krisr0ck27
First off, everyone needs to make sure they do a two catcher league next season. This is especially so in the the myriad of 10 team leagues that I receive questions about every day. If you can literally go to the waiver-wire an add any of those last four names, you should be ashamed at the lack of depth in your league. Lucroy is hitting .324 on the year. Rosario is tied with Buster Posey for the NL lead in homers (19) for catcher. Doumit has been a top-10 catcher this year (.294-14-59). Perez has hit .298 with eight bombs in a mere 39 games.
When the season started I would have said to go with Santana. Over the past four weeks only one catcher on this list has outperformed him (Doumit who has hit .311-7-17) as Santana has hit .270 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Santana has also hit seven bombs with 23 RBIs, a .410 OBP, a .542 SLG and .953 OPS since the All-Star break. You can move to Doumit if you need a bit of an average boost, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to, and riding, Santana.
First in all offensive categories, close to last in pitching categories. Is it worth giving Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Cain for the home stretch?
– @stealyurbase
It’s certainly the time of year in rotisserie that you have to play the categories. That means making deals that sometimes may not make total sense off the top. Would I ever draft Matt Cain ahead of Carlos Gonzalez? Are you on dope? Would never happen. But we’re 4.5 months into a six month season, so if your team needs pitching help this is certainly something to consider.
Cain continues to marvel with his consistency. Last year he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This year he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Moreover, since the start of the 2009 season, a span of 122 starts, Cain has a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All he does is take the ball every five games and give the Giants a chance to win. Period. My only hesitation here is that Cain has been a bit below his normal standards over his last seven starts as he’s been saddled with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, not awful numbers, but he’s not exactly trending in the right direction.
The deal isn’t a world beater by any means but it’s also solid given your needs.
I’ve been offered Hunter Pence for my Alex Gordon in a 12 team, H2H league. Seems like a good buy low but a lil worried.
– @NotoriousBox
I understand the concern, Pence is hitting a mere .177 with the Giants, but let’s compare these two guys efforts to one another.
Pence has doubled Gordon in homers, 18 to nine.
Pence has 24 more RBIs – 70 to 46.
Pence has scored one fewer run (66 to 67) and stolen two fewer bases (five to seven).
The only category in the fantasy game that really favors Gordon is batting average (.293 to .259). What about that average? Pence has a career .288 mark. Gordon’s career mark is .267. Pence also has hit at least .282 each of the past four years. Yes Pence is hitting .183 over his last 30 games and Gordon is hitting .341, and that’s a mind boggling difference. Still, I assume we can agree that neither player is likely to continue their pace since the All-Star break, right?
I’d take a shot on Pence. He’s got too much history on his side not to think he could still make a run to .280 this season, and he clearly has displayed a significant power advantage over Gordon this season.
Give up Curtis Granderson for Andre Ethier and Adam Wainwright? Could use a starting pitcher.
– @LKrukowski
Granderson has 30 bombs, 68 RBIs and 79 runs scored putting on pace for another excellent season. Of course there are some among you who are disappointed with that effort as he hit 41 homers with 119 RBIs and 136 runs scored last season. He was never going to repeat those numbers. He’s also continued his bizarre trend of alternating impressive an average steals totals from season to season (26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and eight this year). His batting average has also dipped to .235 an it’s looking like this will be his third sub .250 effort in four seasons.
Ethier will certainly give you a nice batting average boost. A career .291 hitter, he’s batting .288 this season after back-to-back efforts of .292. He’s nowhere near the run producer that Granderson is though as he’s hit only 22 homers over his last 241 games. Furthermore, after a torrid start to the year that included 44 RBIs in 50 games he’s driven in a mere 12 runners over his last 31 contests. On the hill is Wainwright, and he is surging. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, nearly a K per inning (44 in 48.2 frames) and he’s walked only eight batters. It took a while for him to find his footing, but over the past two months he has looked as good as he ever has.
If you need starting pitching help I think this is a solid deal, especially since Ethier should help to smooth out the ding that Granderson put into your batting average. Let’s just hope that the Cardinals don’t shut down Wainwright early to protect his arm. After all, he didn’t throw a big league pitch last year.
In tight battle for 1st on a 15 team league. Worried about Dan Haren rest of year. Time to cut bait or hang tight?
– @99hokie
Haren clearly isn’t 100 percent because of that back. As a result of the physical woes his performance has been up and down. A prime example. After allowing a total of four runs in three starts he permitted five earned over 3.1 innings in his last outing. That still gives him a 3.80 ERA over his last four starts, nearly a run below his 4.68 mark for the season. If we pull back a bit further he still has a solid 3.00 K/BB ratio on the year. His GB/FB ratio of 1.00 is right on par with his mark the last two years. He is surrendering more homers than every before (1.44 per nine versus 1.04 for his career) and that number could normalize a bit. He’s also dealing with a .283 batting average against, and only once since 2005 has that number been over .260 so it’s possible that he could be a wee bit stingier with the base knocks the rest of the way.
Admittedly there is no way to know exactly where Haren’s body is at, but I’d still profess faith in his ability to get batters out. You can’t expect the 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP guy from last season, but he should still be an above average option on the bump, especially in a 15 team league (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree).
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
