Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray reflect on the season that was and talk about what they got right and what they got wrong.
Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray reflect on the season that was and talk about what they got right and what they got wrong.
Each week I’ll answer some of the questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Give up R.A. Dickey to get Mike Tout in 12 team roto?
I recently spoke about Dickey in my Around the Horn video. If you don’t want to take the time to watch my ugly mug talk about him, here are the highlights of what I talked about.
Dickey has allowed one run in five starts.
He’s hurled 42.2 innings without allowing an earned run.
He’s also made 5-straight starts with at least eight Ks and no earned runs allowed, and that is the longest such streak in the history of the game.
His 11 wins lead baseball.
His 2.00 ERA is the best in baseball (tied with the Tommy John surgery headed Brandon Beachy).
He’s second in the NL with 103 strikeouts.
You can make a valid argument, I’m serious here, that Dickey has been the best pitcher in fantasy baseball this year. The fact that he has done that throwing a knuckle ball 86 percent of the time simply boggles the mind, I mean like I discovered how to time time travel and had Izabel Goulart fall in love with me on the same day ridiculous.
Trout has been a dominating force in the fantasy game, and as I pointed out in the video link above, he may be the best player in fantasy baseball since he was called up. Currently hitting .338, second in the AL, and leading the circuit with 19 steals, here is the pace that Trout is on if he were to rack up 600 at-bats this season: .338-18-86-123-58. Those are insanely good numbers, so good in fact that the five-some of figures has never been posted in one season by one player in the history of baseball.
Which player will keep up their historic pace? I think it’s safe to say neither.
Which player would I rather have? I’d go with Trout. Every person that has ever seen Trout play has thought to themselves ‘this guy is a superstar.’ Hell, Dickey’s family has never even thought that once.
Cody Ross or Dexter Fowler rest of season?
You have to love the East Coast and how it causes people to lose their minds (I write that while listening to Empire State of Mind by Jay-Z and Alicia Keys by the way). Somehow people have been brainwashed into thinking that Ross is a must add player in 12 team leagues. Even if you’re starting five outfielders, I’m gonna say that Ross is nothing more then a depth play. The last time Ross hit .275 was an abbreviated 2007. The last time he hit 15 homers was 2009. In a career that began in 2003 he has one season with 75 RBI (90 back in 2009). He’s stolen more than six bases one time (nine in 2010). What in that history lesson suggests that Ross is a lock to start everyday in a fantasy lineup? ‘But Ray, he’s socked nine homers with 25 RBIs in just 39 games this year.’ So what. What’s done is done, and he isn’t going to maintain that pace. He’s striking out at a career worst rate (25.0 percent), isn’t going to keep a HR/F ratio of 21 percent after failing to reach even 15 percent the past four seasons, and he’s hitting .271 with zero steals.
Fowler has been in an out of the lineup a bit recently and you can’t blame the Rockies for that given that he’s hitting .216 in June. Still, this is the guy you want here. Fowler may never live up to expectations given that consistency has always eluded him, and he’s hit just .169 with one homer on the road this season continuing a career trend of struggles away from Coors (career .876 OPS at home and .678 on the road), but he’s the better talent and he has the more dynamic skill set. You can find 18 homer, 70 RBI guys on the waiver wire, but good luck find a guy who who could go 15/15 while scoring 75 runs and knocking in 75 (Fowler is on pace for an effort of .264-19-75-85-17).
Assuming Kevin Youkilis gets traded and Anthony Rizzo is up. Points league: Rizzo or Will Middlebrooks?
I don’t ever recall a career .141 hitter with less than 50-games of big league experience ever drawing this much attention. Look, I know that Rizzo has elite talent and everyone is gaga over his potential, but what on Earth did he do last year besides being the worst hitter in baseball when he was with the Padres? Rizzo produced one of five seasons in the 21st century of a batter hitting under .150 in 150 plate appearances or more (J.R. Towles, Brandon Wood, Michael Saunders and Jason LaRue re the others). ‘But Ray, Rizzo is killing it in the minors this season.’ Newsflash everyone, he killed it last year in the minors too despite his catastrophic failure with the Padres.
2011 (Triple-A): .331-26-101 with a 1.056 OPS in 93 games
Does that mean that he will have immediate success when the Cubs call him up this time around since he’s been even better this year in the minors?
2012 (Triple-A): .360-23-59 with a 1.115 OPS in 64 games
I’ll remind you of these facts.
Chris Davis has hit .337 with a 1.006 OPS in Triple-A over four years with an average of 28 homers and 106 RBIs per 500 at-bats. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.
Alex Gordon was the Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 after hitting .325 with 29 homers, 101 RBI, 111 runs and 22 steals in just 130 games. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.
Paul Konerko was the #2 prospect in baseball in 1998 after hitting .323 with 37 homers, 127 RBI and 97 runs in 130 minor league games in 1997. He hit .214 with seven homers in his first 224 big league at-bats.
The bottom line is that the path to success isn’t always smooth and linear. I’d take Middlebrooks who continues to impress, has had success at the big league level (.303-7-27 with a .863 OPS in 37 games), and for the fact that he plays third base.
Is Dillon Gee worth a pickup 12 team league?
Of course it would depend on your current pitching staff, but Gee is one of those guys floating around on waiver-wire’s in a lot of 12 team mixed leagues (just check out his owned percentage over at Fleaflicker), and he’s a great guy to target if you’re in need of a boost on the hill.
On the surface Gee has a 4.27 ERA and a 5-3 record. Yippee right? But look beneath that and you see a guy who is gaining momentum. Over his last seven starts he’s pitched at least six innings without allowing more than three earned runs every time (that’s 7-straight “quality starts”). Over his last five outings he’s only walked nine batter. Over his last six outings he’s struck out 40 batters. On the year he owns an 8.24 K/9 mark and his BB/9 rate is 2.48 leading to an impressive 3.32 K/BB ratio. He’s also eliciting plenty of grounders from batters with a 53 percent ground ball rate leading to a 1.94 GB/FB ratio. If you have a K/BB ratio over 3.30 and your GB/FB ratio is over 1.90 you are going to have a ton of long term success. A ton.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT.
(1) Can Will Middlebrooks keep up that batting average given his approach?
(2) Eric Thames sent down, who takes over in Blue Jays OF?
(3) Gregor Blanco establishes himself as Giants leadoff hitter.
(4) Dexter Fowler has huge night, been impressive for a long while now.
(5) Jonathan Lucroy out 4-6 weeks with broken hand.
(6) Bryan LaHair continues to slump (people are bailing on him over at Fealflicker).
(7) Jered Weaver hurts back – what does it mean?
By Ray Flowers
(1) Austin Jackson continues to miss time with abdominal issue (check out how good he has been over at Fleaflicker). Team calls up Quentin Berry.
(2) Mike Napoli – has he really been awful this season?
(3) Roy Oswalt close to signing with the Rangers in wake of injury to Neftali Feliz?
(4) Ryan Braun – guess what, he’s a fantasy superstar once again.
(5) Lance Berkman – will knee surgery knock him out longer than 6-8 weeks?
(6) J.J. Hardy dealing with shoulder soreness.
(7) Carlos Pena batting leadoff again.
(8) Red Sox moving parts around with Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks.
By Ray Flowers
Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).
Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.
I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.
I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).
Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.
Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.
Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.
Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.
Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.
Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.
Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).
Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.
Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.
If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.
By Ray Flowers