Quietly Making History

Seven.

That’s the number of The Wonders of the World.

It’s also the number Mickey Mantle wore on his back.

There are seven days in a week.

Seven also happens to be the number of men who have hit 600 homers in their career.

That number will soon turn to eight.

762 – Barry Bonds

755 – Hank Aaron

714 – Babe Ruth

660 – Willie Mays

630 – Ken Griffey Jr.

626 – Alex Rodriguez

609 – Sammy Sosa

Jim Thome continues his march toward history, albeit with little of the fanfare that he deserves. Sitting on 596 home runs, Thome is about to join the elite power hitters who ever played the game. Yet no one seems to care. I find that completely vexing if for no other reason than the club is so exclusive. Add in the fact that Bonds, A-Roid and Sosa have huge clouds hanging over their heads as a results of the PED scandal, and it could legitimately be argued that only four men truly deserve to be in the group. The fifth would be Thome (there have long been whispers about Thome, but he’s never failed a test, nor is there a massive amount of evidence pointing to his guilt like there is with Bonds.
A few Thome facts…

He has hit at least 20 homers 16 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 30 homers 12 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 40 homers six times, the 5^th highest total in league history.

He has scored 100 runs eight times.

He has drive in 100 runs nine times.

He has scored more than 1,500 runs, and knocked in more than 1,600.

He’s walked more than 1,700 times in his career putting him in the top-10 all-time.

Face it, Thome has been a very good player for a very long period of time. He was never a good fielder, he lost his glove about a decade ago, but the man is one of the best in the history of the game at taking a walk and going deep. For that, he should get a lot more credit than he has received for a career that rightly should place him in the Hall of Fame one day.

And finally, how about Hideki Matsui? He recently joined the 500-HR club. The majority of his bombs were hit in Japan (332), but Matsui still became the first player to reach the total 500 homer total in a career split between Japan and the States. Congrats

By Ray Flowers

Nirvana

In the grand scheme of things a championship in sports means nothing, and the life of one person is also rendered insignificant when placed in the context of the world. But I gotta tell you, in this corner of the sphere that we all inhabit, there have been few things that can rival what has occurred over the last 24 hours.

I’ve never been married or ever welcomed a child into this world, so I don’t have that frame of reference to draw upon, but I can tell you this – in the pantheon of events that have shaped my life, this event ranks near the top of the list.

Willie May, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Barry Bonds – some of the greatest players ever to done a uniform – were never able to bring a World Championship to San Francisco. In more recent years players such as Jeff Leonard, Will Clark, Kevin Mitchell, John Burkett, John Beck and Jeff Kent were also unable to bring the World Series trophy home to San Francisco.

On Monday night, November 1st, 2010, that all changed.

The names will likely be forgotten in a few years if you aren’t a Giants fan. Honestly, some of the players might not even be at the forefront of your mind right now (Sergio Romo, Travis Ishikawa, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Fontenot, Nate Schierholtz), but isn’t that the wonder of baseball? The sport is more than one great player leading a team to victory through sheer will and determination. The grind of six months of a regular season an another month for the playoffs offers the chance for numerous players to make history or to step to the fore at a moments notice. Cody Ross? I mean seriously, unless you were a Marlins’ fan or a fantasy baseball addict, did you even know who he was prior to the postseason? Edgar Renteria? Wasn’t he washed up and heading off into retirement after the worst season of his career (.276-3-22)? My goodness, he didn’t even start the first five games of the playoffs for the Giants. But that was the beauty of the 2010 Giants. They may not have been a team filled with “names,” but they had timely hitting, excellent work behind the bench by Bruce Bochy, and some of the best pitching the game has seen in this century.

As for me, the day after is surreal. For every year of my life that I have consciously been aware of the game of baseball, I have lived and died with the Giants. I’ve lost sleep worrying about games, I’ve skipped out on dates with pretty ladies to watch games, and I’ve nearly given myself an ulcer with each gut wrenching failure I have endured along with the club. So when Brian Wilson threw that final strike last night, what was my response? Did I jump up and down? Did I scream at the top of my lungs? Did I get plowed to the point that I forgot my own name? The truth is I didn’t do any of those things. Instead, I looked over to my parents, both of whom who have been there right with me nearly every step of the way, and simply smiled and said “wow.”

It may not have been a celebration for the ages in the Flowers’ household, but I can tell you this – other than those major life events, like my parents wedding, my brother and I being born, my brother having two wonderful children of his own, it was one of the happiest moments of our lives.

Thank you San Francisco Giants. It was a long time in coming, but as I’ve written before, it was all worth it as I can now walk down the street, #1 finger held high in the air, with a huge smile on my face. We, and yes I’m including myself and all the Giants’ fans in the world, WE are World Champions.

By Ray Flowers

The HOF and Ubaldo Jimenez

On Sunday Andre Dawson was officially inducted into the Hall of Fame. An eight time All-Star who is one of only three men in big league history to hit 400 homers while also stealing at least 300 bases (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays are the others), Dawson also has one of the worst OBP (.323) of any player in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it’s the worst mark of any outfielder enshrined at Cooperstown, .020 points below the .343 mark of Lou Brock. Should Dawson have been elected to the HOF? I tackled that very question in The Case of Andre Dawson. If that piece doesn’t cause you some pause about whether or not the athletic outfielder should have been enshrined, perhaps Dawson vs. Alomar will prove to you, once an for all, that not only does Roberto Alomar deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but that Dawson’s credentials might be a little thin.

I actually wrote up a series of piece on players who were eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, and here are those links:

Edgar Martinez – Is there Room for a DH?
HOF: Tim Raines.
Is McGriff Hall Worthy?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?
HOF: Who Am I?

Any here are my final thoughts where I discussed the 2010 voting results.

HOF: What Should Have Been.

Has anyone pointed you toward one of the best sites on the internet? No, I’m not talking about something that has porn in it, you certainly already have your favorites bookmarked for your adult entertainment, or BaseballGuys.com (since you’ve already found it), I’m referring to Rumorzone.com. It’s a collaborative effort from Fanball.com, and we’re tracking all the latest rumors in the world of sports for the four major sports at that location (MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL). Don’t forget to bookmark it.

Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. There, I said it, and don’t for a second try and tell me you weren’t thinking the same thing. On June 7th, a mere eight starts ago, Ubaldo had a 0.93 ERA. Heck, on June 18th it was still 1.15. However, the past six outings haven’t looked anything like his first 14 trips to the hill. Here are the numbers:

7.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.73 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.68 K/BB

The ERA is horrific, the WHIP is terrible, and that walk rate is godawful leading to a decidedly sub par K/BB mark that is well below the big league average of 2.10.

So what happened? It’s called regression people, ever heard of it? Did you really drink so much of that Ubaldo Cool Aid that you actually thought he was going to challenge Bob Gibson’s NL ERA mark of 1.12? Come on now. Did you think he was gonna keep his ERA under 2.00 all year long? I got news for you, that’s only happened twice in baseball since the 21st century began (Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 mark in 2000 and Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 mark in 2005). Again, you kid right?

The truth is that Ubaldo is simply returning to the level of “dominance” instead of the “historic” pace that he flashed early on. He still has a 2.75 ERA, his WHIP is just 1.12, he has nearly a K per inning (120 in 134.1) and he is still 15-2. How rare is that combination? If he maintains that pace for 34 starts this season we’d be looking at something like 25 wins, 200 Ks and a 2.75 ERA. How many pitchers have reached all three of those levels since 2000? It’s a small group of — zero. If we go back to 1990 there still isn’t one member of the group. How about 1980? Still none. You have to go all the way back to to Ron Guidry in 1978 to find a pitcher who reach all three milestones (25-3, 1.74 ERA, 248 Ks).

The bottom line with Ubaldo is that you should cut the guy some slack. Still, I hope you listened when I suggested you sell high on the flamethrower from Colorado because that window for peak value in a trade has been closed completely.

By Ray Flowers

The Greatest CF Ever?

The Kid always had that swagger. He had the smile, wore his hat backwards, and had one of the smoothest swings in the history of the game. He defined a generation of ballplayers, often being the yin to Barry Bonds yang, and the end result will be his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame in five years. Of course, I’m talking about Ken Griffey Jr.

My first recollection of Griffey isn’t a homer or a catch to rob one, but going to the local ball card shop with my brother and friend in 1989. My brother and I each bought two Upper Deck Griffey cards, while our buddy bought 20 of them at $2 a piece (no joke). I’ve since lost touch with that friend, but hopefully he hung on to all those cards because he’d have made a pretty penny (at the lower end I think they go for $40-50). Why did my friend grab so many rookies of Griffey? He clearly knew what he was doing – slightly ahead of me and my cheapskate ways at the time (I think I bought two boxes of Score cards instead – and that wasn’t a great choice in retrospect).

However, my greatest memories of Griffey obviously emanate not from losing a small fortune, but from his work on the diamond. You’ll see the numbers listed everywhere you read about Griffey the next few days, so I’ll just list them quickly.

630 homers, 5th all-time
1,836 RBI, 14th all-time
1,662 runs, 31st all-time
1,192 extra base hits, 6th all-time
5,271 total bases, 12th all-time

* He was named to 13 All-Star teams including every year from 1990-2000 – the entire decade.

* He won the MVP award in 1997, unanimously. He was awarded 3.20 Career MVP Shares, 27th best of all-time.

* Here might be the most amazing part of the whole deal; Griffey wasn’t just a hitter, he was a sublime fielder who 10-straight Gold Gloves, one for each year of the decade of the 1990′s. Think about that. He won a Gold Glove ever year of the 90′s. Only Roberto Clemente (12) and Willie Mays (12) won more amongst outfielders.

Injuries curtailed Griffey’s career prematurely, and people who only remember the broken down player of the past few years are doing this man a disservice. Just how great was he during his prime? From 1996-1999, there wasn’t a finer player in the game. In that four year period of time he was the MVP once, finished fourth twice, and was 10th on the other occasion. As for the numbers, he never hit fewer than 48 homers, knocked in fewer than 134 runs, scored fewer than 120 or stole fewer than 15 bases in any of those four years. Griffey is therefore the only man in the history of the game to go 48-134-120-15 in 4-straight seasons – and he also won a Gold Glove every season to boot.

But beyond the greatness of his two-way play, beyond the childlike enthusiasm and beyond the fact that he was never embroiled in any off-field issues of any kind until the recent ludicrous story that he was sleeping during a game, there is one salient fact that sets him apart from everyone else he played against – not once has his name ever been linked to performance enhancing drugs.

Now I have no inside knowledge, I wasn’t in the locker room with any of these guys and I don’t share beers with them on a Friday night, so like the rest of you it’s all rumor and supposition about what went on behind closed doors. But as stated, what we do know is that Griffey’s name was never linked to PED’s. Therefore, he just might be the only slugger of his era whose exploits aren’t thought to have been chemically enhanced. Given that, there is nothing to stop Griffey from entering the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

So, was Griffey the best center fielder in the history of the game? It’s pretty difficult to think that Griffey was as good an all-around player as Willie Mays, and he clearly lacked the outward passion of Ty Cobb, and it’s not like there aren’t two all-time greats who roamed centerfield for the Yankees in Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle. In the end the question will continue to be debated, but I feel completely comfortable in stating that Ken Griffey Jr. was the greatest all-around center fielder this scribe ever had the privilege of watching play the game of baseball, and while that might not mean a thing to Mr. Griffey, it means the world to me.

By Ray Flowers

Context Revisited

A while back I addressed the fact that a ton of people who analyze the game of baseball, mostly those who work for big/fancy corporations, either (A) have no idea what they are talking about, or (B) think that you are so stupid that you couldn’t possibly understand the nuances of analysis so they just continue to spew the same, slightly meaningful crap, as everyone else. Alas, it really isn’t that difficult to place things in the proper context – all you need to do is to apply a little elbow grease. After I re-reading that previous piece entitled Some People Never Learn, I thought I would expand upon the idea of context with a few more concrete examples of why it is so vital to do place whatever you are analyzing on some continuum to root it in the real world.

Which player would you prefer to have on your team?

Carl Yastrzemski who hit .301 in 1968 or Glenn Wright who hit .321 in 1930?

If that was all the information you had at your disposal you would clearly answer Wright since he hit .020 points higher, but where is the context? There is none. We could add the context of opportunity, i.e. at-bats, and try to derive an answer. Alas, that context still says the option to choose would be Wright given that he hit .020 points higher in only seven fewer at-bats than the 539 that Yaz racked up in ’68. However, another level of context would be to discuss the era, or the level of competition that they faced in their respective season. We could talk about how there were no players of color playing in 1930, or the fact that teams traveled by bus and train and not airplanes, but those things aren’t really quantifiable since we would be dealing in the realm of supposition. So, why don’t we just compare each batter’s batting average directly to those who were also playing at the same time.

Yaz hit .301 in ’68, the Year of the Pitcher, and the AL batted just .230.
Wright hit .321 in ’30, and that year the NL batted, hold on to your hats, .303!

To arrive at how each player did in relation to their competition, you simply divide the players batting average by the league average to come up with an adjusted total.

Yaz: .301 / .230 = 1.31
Wright: .321 / .303 = 1.06

So what this context shows is that despite batting .020 points higher according to their raw batting averages, Wright’s batting average was only 6% better than the league average in 1930 whereas Yaz’s piddly .301 average, which led the AL by the way, was a full 31% better than the league average. Given that context, which batter would you have wanted for your hypothetical team?

And that’s the trick of context. Numbers are just numbers without context, and far too often people try to compare players of different era’sby merely looking at raw numbers without any deference being paid to context. Here are two concrete examples

(1) Shoeless Joe Jackson hit all of 54 home runs in his career. Willie Mays hit 660 home runs in his career. So Mays was the better power hitter, right? Not so fast. Partly because of huge disadvantage in batting average (.356 to .302), Mays finished his career with an OPS that was just .001 point higher than Jackson at .941. In addition, if we place each batter’s effort in context by comparing his effort against the league during the years that he played, we find out that Mays’ adjusted OPS says he was 56% better than his level of competition. As for Jackson, playing in the so-called dead-ball era, his adjusted OPS was 70% better than his competition. Ergo, according to this context, Jackson was actually a better offensive weapon as measured by OPS, and in fact by a rather large percentage, over Mays.

(2) Let’s line up home run king Barry Bonds with home run king Babe Ruth. In terms of raw numbers Barry Bonds out-homered Ruth 762 to 714. However, if we use context, who was the better home run hitter?

In 1919 Ruth hit 29 home runs. No one else in the AL hit more than 10.
In 1920 Ruth hit 54 home runs. No one else hit more than 19.
In 1921 Ruth hit 59 home runs. No one else hit more than 24.

I could do on, but the point is pretty obvious. Ruth wasn’t just winning the home run title, he was more than doubling his next closest competitor in some years. For all the home runs he hit, Bonds only lead the league in home runs twice (Ruth did 12 times), and in those two seasons Bonds led the league by a mere six home runs (46 to 40) and nine (73 to 64).

So the next time someone just starts throwing raw numbers out there when they are making a Hall of Fame argument take a moment, adjust things with some context, and come up with an answer to the question or comparison that actually makes some logical sense – even if the majority of sports writers view that concept as being as foreign as the ability to fly to the sun like Icarus.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Andre Dawson

What the heck. I thought I might as well continue to plow through some of the potential HOFamers with the release of voting results mere days away (January 6th). Today I’ll touch on Andre Dawson, the highest vote getter in 2009 who wasn’t chosen for election to the Hall of Fame (he received 67.0 percent of the vote, just under the 75 percent minimum that is required).

To see my thoughts on others in this series simply click on the following links:

HOF: Tim Raines

Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

Andrew Dawson was the “modern day ballplayer” before there was the modern day ballplayer. Exceedingly athletic, powerful with the bat, his legs, and his arm, there was nothing this man couldn’t do on the ball field. Let me detail his exploits.

Blessed with a cannon of an arm, Dawson cut down runners frequently on his way to hauling in 6-straight Gold Gloves (1980-85) and eight overall.

Dawson was named to eight All-Star teams in his career.

Dawson won four Silver Slugger Awards.

Dawson won the NL MVP in 1987 (.287-49-137-90-11) and finished twice two other times (1981 and 1983). Overall he had 2.36 Career MVP Shares good for 67th all-time (a measure of how many votes a player picks up in MVP voting).

What about his overall numbers? Here are some of those.

Dawson hit 438 home runs in his career, 36th all-time.
Dawson knocked in 1,591 runs, 34th all-time.
Dawson scored 1,373 runs, 93rd all-time.
Dawson had 314 steals, 146th all-time.
Dawson produced 2,774 hits, 45th all-time.
Dawson hit 503 doubles, 48th all-time.
Dawson produced 1,039 extra base hits, 24th all-time.

And finally, you put that all together and — Dawson was one of only three men who have played the game who have hit more than 400-HRs with at least 300-SBs. The others two guys are named Willie Mays and Barry Bonds.

Moreover, in the decade of the 1980′s, few were better at the dish. Here is an average Dawson season in that time (1980-89): .285-25-90-81-20. That type of season would have helped to win many a fantasy baseball championship would it have not? Remember, offense wasn’t as prevalent back then so the numbers are actually better than they look on the face of it as well.

Clearly, he was very good for a very long time.

From the traditional measures to a couple of those new fangled measures that you may or may not be aware of.

HOF Career Standards (created by Bill James). A score of 50 is about “normal” for a HOF player, and Dawson checks in with a mark of 44 which is one point better than the 43 that one of last years inductees, Jim Rice, racked up in his career. That seems to paint Dawson in a slightly unfavorable light.

HOF Monitor (created by Bill James). A score of 100 is about “normal” for a HOF player, and Dawson has a mark of 118. Compared to Jim Rice though, he falls well off the pace (Rice has a 144 mark). In fact, Dawson falls well behind three other batters who failed to gain entry last season in Mark McGwire (170), Don Mattingly (134) and Dave Parker (124). This measure, and the one above, seem to signal that Dawson would be a fair option for the Hall of Fame, but far from an elite option – perhaps that’s why he still hasn’t been enshrined.

Andre Dawson isn’t a lock to be inducted in 2010, but sooner or later, much like Jim Rice, it appears that he will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. So in the words of Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber – “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”

By Ray Flowers

A Day in the Life

Today in my survey o’ the world of baseball, we will spend some time detailing a couple of big bats in Chicago, a speedster in Cincinnati and the plight of a first round fantasy stud whose season is teetering on the brink of irrelevance due to injury.

Let me get this straight. Jake Fox hit a blistering .424 with 17 home runs and 51 RBI in just 41 games at Triple-A this season doing his best Rogers Hornsby imitation. He was then called up to the Cubs where he went 5-for-12 (.417). His reward? He was sent back to Triple-A Iowa. With Derrek Lee finally starting to turn things around at first base – he has hit .345 with a .457 OBP in his last 15 games – the Cubs just weren’t able to find any room on the diamond for Fox since they don’t trust his glove at third base. If you are Fox, how disappointed are you right now? You’ve knocked in a run a game and are hitting better than Ted Williams ever did yet you cannot even find a way to convince your team to find a bench spot for you. Don’t know about you, but if that was me I would be calling my agent telling him I want the hell out of there immediately.

The White Sox made a distressing announcement today, though I cannot say that it wasn’t somewhat expected. Carlos Quentin, on the sidelines with plantar fasciitis in his foot, will likely be out until at least the All-Star game. For his part, Quentin stated that the injury isn’t really PF, it’s actually a torn tendon in his left foot. No matter what the actual injury, the bottom line is that Quentin will remain sidelined for at least another month. What this likely means is that potential free agent Jermaine Dye (there is a mutual option for $12 million for 2010), and his 15 home runs will not be traded, that is if the White Sox think they can still contend despite a 27-32 record. The White Sox simply need a big right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup to remain competitive, and with Quentin out, Dye is their best option though Paul Konerko hasn’t been bad at the dish with a .295-8-39 line this season.

Grady Sizemore, already on the DL due to a strained elbow, will be held out of baseball activity for another five days at which time an MRI will be performed to determine whether or not the joint has healed sufficiently to allow him to return to the diamond. Don’t know about you, but I’m thinking that he will eventually need arthroscopic surgery. What is clear is that with nine home runs and seven steals, Sizemore won’t be going 30/30 this season like he did last year, and in fact he may be hard pressed to go 20/20, a total he has reach in each of the past four seasons. Actually Sizemore has hit at least 22 home runs, with at least 22 steals and at least 100 runs in each of the last four seasons, and that is the third longest such streak in baseball history (tied with Carlos Beltran and Barry Bonds). Willie Mays is the all-time leader with six straight seasons from 1955-60 while the second man on the list is Bobby Bonds with a stretch of five-straight years from 1969-1973. As for Beltran, he has eight home runs, seven steals and 34 runs putting him on pace for about 23 home runs, 20 steals and 98 runs, so he’ll need to kick things up a notch himself is he wants to move into a second place tie on the list.

Willy Taveras is 0-for-16 and as a result his average has dropped to .250 on the season. Even worse for a leadoff hitter, his OBP is just .307 which has caused the Reds to drop him to second in the order. “Willy is my leadoff man,” manager Dusty Baker said. “It’s temporary.” Apparently the fact that Taveras is hitting .250 with a .308 OBP over his last 663 ABs dating back to the start of last season doesn’t matter to Baker and the Reds as they seem stuck on the fact that Willy T. has posted 80 steals since the start of last season. That’s great guys, but do you really need someone to tell you that steals are wonderful, but they don’t matter if you don’t get on base enough to be an effective weapon out of the leadoff spot?

By Ray Flowers