Draft Day Challenge, May 28

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Yadier Molina
2. Victor Martinez

Molina has six hits, five RBIs and four runs scored his last three games as he’s pushed his average up to .346. He’s also hitting .363 on the road this year and has hit .330 in 29 games against the Royals.

V-Mart is 1-for-2 against Jeanmar Gomez and he’s hit .042 points higher this year vs. right-handed pitching (.259). Martinez is also hitting .345 over the past week with five RBIs.

FIRST BASE
1. Adrian Gonzalez
2. Mike Napoli

AGone faces Mr. Blanton Tuesday, and you can read about Joe B’s struggles below. Gonzalez is hitting .368 with two homers in 19 at-bats against Blanton, and Adrian is hitting .435 with two homers and eight RBIs the past week.

Napoli has a difficult matchup against the Phillies’ Lee, but he’s hit .313 against him in 16 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 20 runners in just 103 at-bats at home this season.

SECOND BASE
1. Kelly Johnson
2. Marco Scutaro

Johnson is crushing it to the tune of a .471 average the past seven days and he has two homers and seven RBIs the past two games. He’s also managed two hits in four ABs against Mr. Slowey and he’s batting .317 in home games this season.

Scutaro has hit .323 on the season and he’s batting .325 on the road. He faces Jarrod Parker, who he is 0-for-3 against, but Parker has bombed at home this season with a 7.43 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over five starts.

THIRD BASE
1. Josh Donaldson
2. David Wright

Donaldson is batting .318 at home with a .947 OPS and has hit .337 with a 1.036 OPS and six bombs in 24 May games. He faces rookie Mike Kickham.

Wright is hitting .353 in 17 at-bats against Hiroki Kuroda but it should be noted that he has hit only .234 with one homer in 94 at-bats at home this season.

SHORTSTOP
1. Everth Cabrera
2. J.J. Hardy

Hardy has hit in 6-straight games as he’s driven in five runs. He’s slated to face rookie Nate Karns Tuesday.

Cabrera has scored four runs in his last four games while driving in five runs. He’s also hitting .296 on the road this season, has hit .304 against the Mariners in his career and has at least two hits in five of his last nine games on the year.

OUTFIELD
1. Andre Ethier
2. Raul Ibanez

Ethier was recently called out by his manager, and he’s found himself on the bench a couple of times. Still, he faces Joe Blanton who has allowed an unfathomable 93 hits in 56.2 innings. Ethier is also 7-for-17 (.412) with two homers against the righty.

Ibanez has a .868 OPS with seven bombs in 87 at-bats against righties. He faces Edinson Volquez who has a 6.08 ERA and 1.76 WHIP, not to mention a terrible 1.00 K/BB ratio, in five road starts.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Cliff Lee
2. Zach McAllister
3. Jeremy Hellickson
4. Kevin Gausman

Lee has a 2.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the year, and he’s allowed two runs in his last three outings. He’s also gone at least seven inning in 4-straight starts and he’s the owner of a 4-1 record, 1.60 ERA and 0.82 WHIP on the road this season. He travels to Boston to take on the Red Sox.

McAllister has a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for the Indians and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in all nine of his starts this year. He does have a 3.97 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road, so traveling to Cincy to take on the Reds isn’t likely to be a cakewalk.

Hellickson has been all over the place this season. Still, he has a 1.21 WHIP and 50 Ks in 63.2 innings. The Marlins, you may have heard, suck. They’ve gone 1-8 with 17 runs scored in that time.

Gausman faces a Nationals team that has hit .221 while averaging 3.0 runs over the past 15 games. He has the talent to keep those struggles going.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part I, Rounds 1-14

For the fifth straight year I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL.com (you can click on the link to see how everyone else in the draft evaluated their own selections). Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be your truly). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the third overall pick in the draft which was completed just wrapped up as the month of February came to a conclusion).

A little bit about the league and what to expect in the three part piece.

I’ll break down my draft, pick-by-pick. Part I will be a review of selections 1-14. In Part II I’ll review selections 15-28. Finally, in Part III, I’ll give an overview of the draft and share how my team worked out, where I missed out on players, and let you know if The Oracle made any mistakes (shockingly he made one glaring mistake).

12 teams, 28 rounds
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
9 pitchers: P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P
Bench: five spots

Round 1: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
The most consistent hitter in the game. He lacks the speed of others taken at the top of most drafts, but he makes up for it with unmatched consistent excellence. I would never have taken Mike Trout here, so I was very pleased when this future HOFamer fell to me.

Round 2: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS
If a down year is 20/20, and that player qualifies at two positions, sign me up. HanRam has been a .250 hitter the past two years, and that’s obviously a significant issue, but his ability to contribute across the board while giving me flexibility is well worth drafting at this spot, though I was secretly pining for Dustin Pedroia who went one spot ahead of me.

Round 3: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Starlin Castro
I really wanted to take David Wright here. However, with a 3B (Cabrera) and another 3B eligible player (Hanley) already on my roster with my first two picks, I couldn’t justify locking up my corner infield spot this early with a third 3B eligible player.

Round 4: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Austin Jackson, OF
For the second time in three rounds the guy I wanted was taken one spot ahead of me (this time it was B.J. Upton who I also considered in the third round). At this point of the draft I wanted to get an athletic outfielder which I was able to accomplish.

Round 5: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shin-Soo Choo, OF
I could have gone the route of Michael Bourn here, but there seem to be players falling much later with similar skills (Pierre, Revere types). In the 5th I went with another across the board talent in Choo who should thrive hitting in Great American Ballpark.

Round 6: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Martin Prado, 3B/OF
As I continue to pile up offense, I targeted a versatile hitter who qualifies at two spots. Prado’s a nice little hitter, and I know Howard Bender wanted him badly so why not take him. A .300 season with 10/15 and 100 runs seems possible.

Round 7: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yadier Molina, C
You can make a legitimate case that my team, after seven picks, has to be looked at as a club that could hit .300. It’s not often you can say that. However, Molina was my third choice as the two players I had teed up – Hill and Bumgarner – went with the two selections before my spot came up.

Round 8: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James Shields, SP
Others might be nervous with Shields as their top arm. I’m not. He’s about as stable as they come on the hill, get’s a lot of punchouts (8.82 per nine last year), and combines that skill with an increasing ground ball rate (52 percent in ’12).

Round 9: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yovani Gallardo, SP
I was faced with a real toss up between the power arm and consistency of Gallardo, and the likely better ratios but less dominating arm that Johnny Cueto brings. Since Cueto is coming back from an injury, I went with Gallardo.

Round 10: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Nick Markakis, OF
Markakis is exactly the type of player I like to target. He’s consistently solid across the board, is a veteran, and his value is depressed since he’s coming off an injury plagued season. Many don’t know that per 162 games his 5×5 line is .295-18-85-89-9. I’ll gladly take that.

Round 11: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Trumbo, OF/1B
He was amazing in the first half, then he was awful in the second. All told he hit 32 homers with 95 RBIs while batting .268. I’ll gladly take a repeat at this point of the draft from the dual position threat.

Round 12: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dexter Fowler
Will he ever learn to hit on the road? His BABIP was league leading last year so the average might fall a tad from .300, but I think there could be a 20/20 season here.

Round 13: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Ben Revere, OF
Smart to take him with Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp still on the board? Probably not, but I’m a big fan of Revere’s speed game (turns out I was right and should have waited to draft Pierre rounds later).

Round 14: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jon Lester, SP
I believe Lester will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

I’ll continue my review in my next column by looking at selections from rounds 15-28.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Catchers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHER Top-10

1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia

Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.

Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).

Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.

McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.

Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.

Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).

Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.

Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).

Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.

Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).

Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.

Miss: Alex Avila

 By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Fun With Numbers

There are only a couple of weeks left in the 2012 MLB regular season, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t a whole host of numbers that are of interest as we head toward the playoffs.

.241: The league leading BABIP of Jered Weaver which is one point better than his teammate, Ervin Santana. While it’s not logical to think either man will replicate that number in 2013, it should be noted that Weaver has always been a pretty darn impressive in his ability to hold the hits at bay. Weaver has posted a BABIP under .280 each of the past three years, and last season that mark was a mere .250. Santana is no slouch in his own right with marks of .288 and .272 the past two years.

.323: Dan Uggla’s batting average over his last 10 games. Uggla is batting a mere .214 on the year, but he is just the #2 away from a lot of statistical milestones. Uggla has 18 homers, 68 RBIs and 78 runs scored for the Braves.

1: The number of homers that Yadier Molina needs to record his first 20 homer effort. He’s also two runs scored from his first 60 run effort and three RBIs short of his first 70 RBI campaign. He’s not Buster Posey (.333-22-93-73), but Molina is darn close as he’s also rocking an impressive .320 batting average that is fourth in the NL.

1.014: The OPS of Rickie Weeks in the month of September. Weeks has been flat out killing it the last two plus weeks. In the 15 games in the month of September he has gone deep seven times, stolen four bases, knocked in 14 runners and scored 14 times. That is the definition of elite level production folks. The .231 hitter on the season has also hit .280 over his last 69 games putting behind in the dreadful start he had to the campaign.

2: The number of homers and steals that Andrew McCutchen needs to have his first 30/20 season. Andrew’s 28 homers are already a career best, he’s one off his career best of 89 RBIs, and he just reached 100 runs scored for the first time. He’s also those two steals from a 4th straight 20 theft season and he will also set career bests in AVG (.343), OBP (.412) and SLG (.569) as his previous career bests are .286/.365/.471. However, he’s now three points behind Melky Cabrera for the NL batting title lead as he he hit .252 in August. He’s rebounded to hit .327 in September so we will see if he can catch the admitted cheater.

2.5: According to Dave Smith, founder of Retrosheet.org, teams may be paying too much attention to who they have working the 9th inning. According to his research, teams leading by one run after eight innings have won nearly 86 percent of the time. Moreover, since Mariano Rivera became the Yankees closer in 1997 the Yankees have won 97.2 percent of the games that they were leading heading into the 9th inning. The lowly Pirates, to compare, have won 94.7 percent of those games which may lead to the following contention – teams are patently overpaying their 9th inning arms because, statistically speaking, there isn’t as much difference between an elite closer and a group of solid arms working the 9th inning.

3/5: The number of homers and steals that Mike Trout needs to complete his remarkable run to 30 homers and 50 steals (he obviously has 27 HRs and 45 SBs). There have only been two such seasons in the history of baseball. Eric Davis had 37 homers and 50 steals in 1987 (he went 27/80 in 1986) while Barry Bonds, then of the Pirates before his muscles outsized his brain, had 33 homers and 52 thefts in 1990. One other note. Since I’m obnoxious and wont let things go… Trout is hitting a robust .329 on the year, including .317 in the second half, but that average has dipped to .280 over his last 43 games.

16/19: The homer and steals total of Danny Espinosa this year. He’s undergoing an MRI on his left shoulder today so it remains to be seen how much he will be able to build on those numbers. He won’t get to 20/20, but 15/15 as a second baseman ain’t all that bad now is it?

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Bizzaro World of Catchers

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray take a look at the catcher position so far this year. They take a look at those who have far exceeded their draft day expectations and those catchers that have not lived up to the hype.

A.J. Pierzynski, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, Buster Posey, Mike Napoli, Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz

Listen to the Audio.

Did You Know?

Sometimes I like to randomly check in with the baseball cosmos. Today is one of those days. There’s no rhythm or reason to what follows – there’s just a bunch of interest facts strewn about all over the page relating to performances from 2011.

Alex Avila led American League batters, under the age of 26, with an OPS of .895 in 2011 (minimum 502 at-bats). The only other AL bat to reach those requirements who also posted an OPS of .850 was Evan Longoria who finished at exactly .850.

Lance Berkman led the NL last season with 22 homers on the road, one more than his former teammates Albert Pujols.

There were only three outfielders in baseball who hit 10 homers, 10 triples and stole 20 bases. Curtis Granderson was likely and easy call for you, though the other two might be a wee bit tougher. Well, maybe you got Austin Jackson of the Tigers as the second guy, but I’d be willing to bet that the third player’s name is one that you will have to search your memory banks for a long while to find. This youngster had 12 homers, 11 triple and 22 steals. He plays in the American League. Some regard him as the best defensive center fielder in the game. He is Peter Bourjos.

Only four men in baseball have hit .300 with 20 or more homers each of the past three years. Albert Pujols… doesn’t make the list. He hit just .299 last season. The list of four men: Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and… Robinson Cano.

Rajai Davis stole third base 17 times last year, the most in the AL. That’s the same total as Alex Gordon posted last year in 151 games.

I have a crush on Katherine McPhee of Smash. If you click on that link can can’t understand why, I can’t help you.

Sam Fuld stole 20 bases last year, one more than Shane Victorino, Johnny Damon, Ben Zobrist and Jayson Werth. While each of those four batters hit at least 16 homers, Fuld went deep just three times for the Rays.

I love HDTV. It drives home the point that so many “famous” people really aren’t as good looking as you think they are. Makes you feel a little bit better when you look in the mirror.

Yadier Molina hit a career best .305 last season despite the fact that he swung at 40.7 percent of first pitches, the highest mark in the National League. He was the polar opposite of Jamey Carroll who swing at only 6.9 percent of first pitches, the fewest in the NL.

Anibal Sanchez had 202 strikeouts last year. Come on, admit it. You had no idea did you? Were you away that he had more punchouts than Zack Greinke (201), Ian Kennedy (198), Jered Weaver (198), Gio Gonzalez (197) and Cole Hamels (194)?

Only three hurlers in baseball have at least 35 saves each of the past two seasons. Two are rather obvious, though neither is named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The two arms that have 35 or more saves in each of the last two years that are obvious both pitched in the NL West, though one of them will now pitch for the Marlins: Heath Bell and Brian Wilson. The third man is no longer even a closer, he’s now a setup man in Toronto – Francisco Cordero. If we drop the qualification down to 30 saves each of the last two years we only get eight names, a number that is certainly a lot lower than you were likely thinking it would be (yet another reason to avoid overpaying for closers on draft day perhaps?). There just aren’t that many consistent, save arms in the game when you look at multi-year trend. Think of this. Of the eight 30-save guys the last two years, I already mentioned that Cordero is no longer a closer. Another arm on the list, Leo Nunez (aka Juan Carlos Oviedo), also isn’t going to be closing this season. A third name, Neftali Feliz, is going to start. That means a list of 30 save guys for three years, 2000-12, will have, at most, five names on it. Remember that the last time you go diving for closers early in your draft.

By Ray Flowers

Contracts, Expectations and Bigfoot

Yadier Molina is a rich man. Buster Posey is trying to prove he is healthy. Grady Sizemore is on the sidelines yet again. A.J. Burnett needs to learn how to bunt. All this and more in today’s article at BaseballGuys.com.

For those of you looking to get a draft guide to help you to dominate the competition, I’ve got you covered.

Yadier Molina signed a 5-year, $75 million deal to remain with the Cardinals. I’ll say this, Molina is one of the most well rounded catchers currently pulling on the tools of ignorance. He’s got a rocket for an arm, calls a good game, and he took his offense to new heights last season when he reached career bests in average (.305), homers (14), RBI (65) and runs scored (55). Molina also surpassed his career OPS by .107 points with his .814 number. So clearly the Cards did the right thing in locking him up, right? Well, I don’t know about that. The contract covers Molina during his age 30-34 seasons, not exactly time to put him in an old folks home or anything, but that’s getting up there fore a catcher who is playing 135 times a season. In fact, the deal is the third largest in baseball history for a catcher behind the preposterous 8-year, $184 million that Joe Mauer received and the 7-year, $91 million deal that was lavished on Mike Piazza. Molina is a top-10 option at the catcher’s position in terms of his fantasy value for 2012 in my mind even if he fails to live up to the homer total from last season, but I worry about his ability to be a top-10 option when he turns 34 years old (of course, in the real game, defense matters a heck of a lot and that’s a good part of the reason that the Cardinals lavished Molina with that big money deal). Oh, and for reference sake, Jose Bautista signed a 5 year deal for $65 million this offseason. Molina better stay healthy and continue to be an excellent defender.

Speaking of catchers, Buster Posey will not play in the Giants Cactus League opener on Saturday. The team is taking it easy with Posey who may not actually see game action until the middle of next week. I’m still not convinced though. He still isn’t running the bases yet, and there is no telling just how well his body will handle the grind of catching since he last played a game in late May of last season. Those that are drafting him as a top-5 option at catcher and a top-75 option overall might hit it big if Posey is healthy, but at this point I’m thinking that it might be time to start waiving the cautionary yellow flag with Posey.

I’ve realized I’m a pretty good cook. At the same time, it’s all about following a recipe and having some confidence, so I shouldn’t be patting myself on the back too heavily.

Grady Sizemore will never be the player he once was. He was a 30/30 performer in 2008, and he once scored 134 runs with a .907 OPS (2006). Alas, injuries to his lower half have limited him to just 104 games played the last two years. Now we get news that he is likely to miss 8-12 weeks after needing micro disecectomy surgery on his lower back. At this point, you had better not be counting on Sizemore to help you out at all in a mixed league in 2012, or perhaps ever again unfortunately. Even if I was drafting in an AL-only league, Sizemore shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a 4^th or 5^th outfield option, an even that might be pushing it since it appears likely that a best case scenario would see him back at full strength on June 1^st. In the meantime, Michael Brantley should step into the starting role in the outfield and at the top of the batting order. If Brantley can get 500 at-bats he could be a significant AL-only option, but there is still a very real possibility that at some point when Sizemore returns Brantley will see his playing time curtailed.

Did you see the most recent “proof” that bigfoot exists? It’s a photo of something that looks awful big and hairy. Photos can be so easily manipulated anymore, but what about footprints? There was a string of tracks, 122 in all, that were recently discovered in Oregon. Why did I bother posting this information? Perhaps it’s because I always wanted to be a cryptozoologist. By the way, here’s a great story about Bigfoot and baseball players.

Poor A.J. Burnett who I wrote about in his Player Profile. Burnett was injured while bunting – who said baseball wasn’t a contact sport – and he will have surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone around his right eye Friday. It sounds like Burnett will miss 8-12 weeks, hardly a confidence inspiring start to his career with the Pirates.

By Ray Flowers

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers