K-BAD 2011: PART II

Yesterday in K-BAD 2011: PART I I laid out the parameters of one of the experts leagues I’m participating in this year. In addition to giving the lay of the land, I also ran through my first 10 selections. Today, I’ll continue to run through my team focusing on picks 11-20.

Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

For a review of the whole draft see the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

Round 11-8: Juan Pierre, OF, White Sox
I went for the value pick, even though that wasn’t at all my plan. I didn’t really need the steals, but this choice should allow me to finish at, or near the top in the category barring injury. Maybe Pierre’s solid average in a ton of at-bats can also help to offset the poor marks of Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.

Round 12-5: Chad Billingsley, SP, Dodgers
I wanted to take Pablo Sandoval in the 10th and 11th rounds, and told myself I would take him here if he was still available. He was, but I went with the consistency of Chad Billingsley instead. You know I’m playing to win when I take a Dodger over a Giant.

Round 13-8: Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
I already have two second base eligible players, but Zobrist can play OF so it’s not an issue. Kendrick fills my need for batting average help as well – something I need with Dunn/Reynolds (a situation I also tried to address with the selection of Pierre that I mentioned above).

Round 14-5: Carlos Lee, 1B/OF, Astros
Amazingly consistent with 11-straight years of 24 homers, 80 RBI, Lee’s multi position eligibility (OF/1B) led me to calling out his name even though I still need a catcher. Hopefully I’ll be able to address my backstop with my next selection.

Round 15-8: Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals
I considered taking a catcher in the 13th and 14th rounds before finally pulling the trigger. I’d have preferred Carlos Ruiz taken one pick before me, but Molina is a solid option and honestly, there is nothing more than a hair’s difference between the two this season.

Round 16-5: Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins
Everyone has gone closer crazy the last couple of rounds leaving this potential top-25 starting option on the board. If he could ever put everything together, he could be top-15 starter. You can read more about my thoughts on Nolasco in Hot Stove: Holliday Dealings.

Round 17-8: Joel Hanrahan, RP, Pirates
I don’t know if he will close or not (I think he will), but the arm is live and over his last 33 appearances he had a 13.50 K/9 and 4.0 K/BB. NOTE: It was announced two days after I  made this pick that Hanrahan would indeed open the year as the team’s closer. For more on why I thought Hanrahan was a great reliever to target make sure to read Radiant Relievers.

Round 18-5: Scott Baker, SP, Twins
I agonized over this pick, not because I don’t like Baker, but because of trying to figure out how I would fill out my catcher and shortstop position if I took him. It’s one of the problems with “slow drafts” – you have too much time to ponder your choices.

Round 19-8: Jason Bartlett, SS, Padres
I don’t love this pick, but I think Bartlett was the best SS left on the board and he’s the guy I’ve been targeting since I made the choice to pass on SS earlier. I’ve written this before, but I really don’t think, at the end of the day, that there will be much difference between Starlin Castro, who was taken in the 14th round in this draft, and Bartlett in terms of fantasy production in 2011.

Round 20-5: Leo Nunez, RP, Marlins
This is the type of guy you end up having to take a chance on when you don’t roster the top flight closers. I feel good enough about my offense to roster the risk. If he hadn’t struggled at the end of the year, he likely would have been taken at least five rounds earlier. After all, Nunez had a 9.83 K/9 mark, a 3.38 K/BB ratio and a strong 1.79 GB/FB ratio. If he repeats in those three categories this season, he should be able to rack up another 30 saves.

In Part III of this series I’ll review my final eight selections and give a few closing thoughts on the draft.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers

Looking for a Change

I’ve had one of those days. You know, the ones that start out promising but by 9:30 you realize it’s all already gone horribly wrong. The ironic thing is that I was joking this morning on the Fanball podcast that when it goes horribly wrong I just pull back on the Captain Morgan Rum. Little did I know I was going to need it on this day. But don’t worry I’ll bounce back on Thursday, I’ve got me a plan to really enjoy myself, so this frown will be turned upside down soon enough. What about the following players who have been struggling mightily over the past 30 days – are the going to be flashing the pearly whites or burying their face in their bent arm trying to avoid the press?

Coming into play on Wednesday night, Bengie Molina was hitting .248. As recently as May 17th, less than a month ago, he was hitting a robust .330. How is it possible to fall so hard, so fast? Molina has had five hits – total – in his last 16 games. That’s right, Molina is 5-for-54 which works out to a .093 average the past few weeks. It has to get better than that, but he has been so awful all year you can’t possibly have him active in your lineup right now unless you start two catchers, and even then you could probably do better at the moment.

Over the past 30 days, the worst hitter in the bigs who has played on a regular basis is Cliff Pennington of the A’s at .124 which is actually light years worse than the .179 mark of the aforementioned Molina. Lest you think there are only two struggling hitters in the Bay Area, Aaron Rowand has the second worst mark in baseball in that time frame at .147. That’s ugly, and there is little sign of a turnaround for either Pennington or Rowand.

Aaron Hill is hitting .170 to extend his run of horrid work at the dish. A year after hitting .286, his third season in four years of at least .286 by the way, Hill is hitting .183 on the year. That’s right, his recent run of hitting futility is only imperceptibly worse than his work over the entirety of the season. I can’t fathom how it’s possible that he currently has a 7.6 percent line drive rate which is roughly 40 percent of his career 19.3 percent mark. His season just has to turn around at some point. It’s like he’s hitting with his eyes closed.

How had has Aaron Rowand been? He’s been so pathetic that his .172 OBP is still worse than the .179 batting average of Bengie Molina’s younger brother Yadier Molina (.179). I think I’ve just about overdosed either Molina’s and Capt. Morgan. OK, maybe just on Molina’s.

Matt Wieters, nicknamed The Messiah by some in Baltimore, continues to hit more like a defrocked priest than The Savior. Wieters hasn’t even hit his weight the past 30 days at .189, and he hasn’t gone deep even one time in those 74 at-bats. For a guy with such a smooth stroke and a background that screams for domination at the dish, he has been completely clueless for most of this season.

Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .374 — oops. That is barely good enough for a fifth place finish in that time: Miguel Olivo (.394), Justin Morneau (.391), Robinson Cano (.386) and Luke Scott (.382).

Nyjer Morgan has only two RBI, the same total as Ryan Theriot – the worst amongst regulars. Juan Pierre is tied for second worst with three RBI, but that is hardly a shock given that all three of these guys make their money with their legs and with slapping the ball around the yard. However, it is amazing to think that David Murphy, of the offensively minded Rangers, has just three RBI over his last 89 plate appearances. You have to think that will change moving forward as he has the ability to drive the ball much more effectively than we have seen for the majority of the season.

So there you have it. A quick rundown of some of the worst of the worst right now. I’m off to eat a little something since I have to get something on my stomach to avoid having this rum go to my head.

By Ray Flowers