Player Profile: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter, one of the Yankees’ all-time greats (and that is saying something given the storied history of that major league baseball franchise), suffered through two down seasons in 2010-11 causing many to think the time in the sun for the Yankee’s leader was finally drawing to an end. However, showing that greatness should never be doubted, Jeter rebounded with a flurry of offensive fireworks in ’12 proving along the way that his 38 year old body – he’ll be 39 in June – still had something left to contribute in this game. Alas, the good feelings were wiped out when he fractured his ankle in the playoffs leading to October surgery. Jeter is progressing well with hie rehab and everyone thinks he will be on the field Opening Day. The question in the fantasy baseball game is should he be in your fantasy lineup?

Jeter is one of the greatest offensive forces in the history of baseball. Just take a quick glance as his all-time rankings with the bat when compared against other shortstops.

1st in hits (3,304)
1st in runs (1,868)
7th in AVG (.313)
8th in OBP (.382)

He’s also been remarkably consistent with 14 different seasons hitting .290 with 10 homers, 10 steals, 50 RBIs and 75 runs scored. No other shortstop has ever had more than seven such seasons (Barry Larkin).

Above I noted that Jeter had a strong 2012, an effort which included a .316 average, 15 homers, 58 RBIs, 99 runs scored and nine steals. For any player that’s damn impressive, let alone a guy who is pushing 40.

Obviously though there is much more to the story than that or why would I bother writing about him?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Let’s start with the most obvious issue – his health. Again, his ankle should be good to go but he is coming off a significant injury at 38 years old. That has to cause some concern. Another issue that plays off the injury is that he stole only nine bases last season even before he was hurt. Is an aging player, coming off a significant ankle issue, likely to return to stealing 15 plus bases as he did in five of the past six season before last year?

Next is the power. The 15 homers were a three year high and only one less than he hit in 2010-11. It’s also the second highest mark he has posted since 2005. Clearly he shouldn’t be expected to go deep another 15 times. The back of his ball card tells you that. Going a bit deeper it should be noted that he posted a career worst fly ball rate of 15.9 percent. I have to be honest. There are times where numbers catch even The Oracle by surprise, and this is one of those cases. I knew that Jeter was far from the type of batter that spends any time lifting the ball, but under 16 percent of batted balls going upward? That’s akin to the level of oddness that saw Barry Bonds going deep 73 times. The big league average fly ball rate is literally more than double the mark that Jeter posted in ’12 (35 percent last year). Not just that, but Jeter has failed to reach even 20 percent with his fly ball rate in any of the last three seasons. Moreover, Jeter’s 16.1 percent HR/F ratio last season was the second best mark of his career and four of the previous five seasons that number wasn’t even in double-digits. Fifteen homers ain’t happening again.

Is the batting average repeatable? On the surface you’d have to say yes. After all, he only batted three points higher than his career mark of .313. Still, if I was a betting man I’d lay pretty strong odds against a batting average repeat. He hit .270 and .297 in 2010-11. He’s coming off injury. He’s 38 (stop me if you’ve read this before). There’s also that amazingly low fly ball rate. There’s also the insanely high 3.94 GB/FB ratio (Jeter has hit at least 62 percent of his batted balls on the ground the past three years). Jeter depends, to a large extent, on his batted balls not finding a fielders glove. That’s always going to leave him at the whim of the placement of those grounders and the defenders. He also swung at more pitches outside the strike zone than ever before in 2010 (28.2 percent). He upped that mark to 28.8 percent in 2011. Things got even worse in 2012 at 31.1 percent. Overall he swung at 50 percent of pitches last year, an eight year high. Jeter also posted a contract rate of 84.5 percent, a very solid mark, but still a six year low. Pitchers noticed all of that too as they only threw him strikes on 44.9 percent of pitches, the fewest strikes he has ever seen. None of that speaks to a repeat in the batting average category.

If healthy, and he should be, Jeter will still be an effective hitter. He’s simply too talented an experienced to just fall on his face. However, the average is likely to recede. It doesn’t seem probable that he will be stealing 15+ bags either. There is no way he will go deep 15 times again. Add that all up and you would be in a much better place if you looked at his 2011 effort (.297 with six homers, 61 RBIs and 84 runs scored) as the baseline for your 2013 expectations.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kevin Youkilis

Kevin Youkilis played for both the Red Sox and the White Sox in 2012, and neither team, the player, or the fantasy owner were happy with how the oft injured 33 year old performed (Youkilis will be 34 in March). Was all the hoopla with Booby, I mean Bobby, Valentine in Boston a mere blip on the road for Youkilis (he did perform better in Chicago)? Can Youkilis resurrect his once bright career, with the Evil Empire no less (he signed a 1-year, $12 million deal to go from the Sox to the Yankees in the most stick it to your face for treating me badly Beantown move he could make), or have injuries and the advance of Father Time relegated Youkilis to the realm of mid round draft picks that you are just hoping will pay off in the fantasy game?

The most obvious issue with Youkilis is his inability to stay on the field. After appearing in 145 games each year from 2006-08, Youkilis dipped to 136 games played in 2009. He then fell to 102 games played in 2010, 120 in 2011 and 122 last season. That means his average the past three years is 115 games a season. You can’t count on a player who is going to miss that much time because even if his rate of production is solid – more on that in a moment – a month an a half of missed games each season is unexceptable even if that player qualifies at multiple spots (Youkilis will be first base and third base eligible next season after appearing in more than 20 gamas at each spot).

A .283 career hitter, Youkilis hit .235 last season which is a dreadful mark by any measure (.233 with the Red S. and .236 with the White S.). A one year fall off? Perhaps. However, considering that he also hit a mere .258 in 2011 we need to investigate further. The first thing I notice is that the Greek God of Walks posted a 10.0 percent BB-rate, the lowest of his career in 2012 (the previous three years that mark was in the 13′s). Youkilis also struck out at the second highest rate of his career, his K-rate was 21.2, and the resulting 0.47 K/BB ratio was a career worst (career 0.67). He will need to rectify that situation immediately if that average is going to get back into the “normal” range for him. Second, his .268 BABIP was also a career worst, and the second straight year under .300 since he posted a mark of .296 in 2011. When you own a career mark of .322 this is a red flag. Oddly, his line drive rate has held steady the past two years at 20 and 20.7 percent (career 21.2) giving him an inkling of hope that perhaps he will be able to return to the world of the living in the batting average category.

As for his power, we’re talking 3-straight year with less than 20 homers. Of course, as I noted above, he’s just not playing enough games to really rack up totals in the counting categories. Given his rate last season – 19 homers in 122 games – if he had appeared in 140 games he would have gone deep 22 times. An issue with the long ball power though is a declining fly ball rate. From 2006-2010 Kevin was uber-consistent with a fly ball rate between 44.3 and 46.7 percent. The last two years that number has dipped to 38 and 36 percent. A one year fall of can be written off to some extent, but when you do it two years in a row, there is concern. At least he is still converting fly balls into homers at a solid rate as evidenced by his last five years of HR/F ratios: 14.9, 16.5, 13.6, 13.3 and 15.7 percent.

On the plus side we also have his rate of production with the White Sox. In 80 games with the Pale Hoes Youkilis went deep 15 times, knocked in 46 runs and scored 47 times. Given a baseline of 140 games that would lead to 26 homers, 81 RBIs and 82 runs scored, levels of production that aren’t at all different than what he was producing in his “salad days.”

I’m a big fan of Youkilis’ game, even if I detest his hideous setup position in the batters box (why in the world didn’t some batting coach at some point simply forbid him from his ludicrous hand position?). However, I’m not blind to what the numbers and what my eyes are telling me. Youkilis has drastically underperformed for two years now, and he’s basically been injured three years running. Is it fair to think that a 34 year old with a wounded ego will be able to turn back the clock? Maybe, but the arrow certainly isn’t tilting to ‘it’s a lock.’ Youkilis will need to regain his approach at the dish in order for the success to return, an I see no reason while he couldn’t do that with health. However, his production must be called into question given declining BABIPs mark and fly ball rates the past two years. Youkilis should be one of those middle round draft selections that you make with little expectation. Take him early enough that you don’t miss out on the dual position threat, but also make sure you roster him at a point where if he repeats his efforts from last season that he doesn’t kill your team. Youkilis is a corner infield option in mixed leagues on the hope that he hasn’t lost his game, that a move to New York and it’s strong hitter’s park will help, and that he is just mad enough to do his best to stick it to the Red Sox while in pinstripes.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes, ah Phil Hughes. If you’ve followed my work for any period of time you’ll know my thoughts on Hughes. Here are some of my previous statements about the Yankees’ hurler in his Player Profile from last season (written on December 27th, 2011).

“I will not be targeting Hughes in any league in 2012. In fact, I’ll be hard pressed to end up with him on my roster unless I’m in an AL-only league… Over his last 150 innings he’s been a bad pitcher, it’s just as simple as that, and for his career the numbers show a replacement level arm at work.”

Has my opinion changed after what looks like a successful 2012 campaign?

In 2010 Hughes went 18-8 for the Yankees. He slumped to 5-5 in 2011 as injuries limited him to 14 starts. In 2012 Hughes returned to prominence winning 16 games against 13 loses. Of course those win totals are impressive, but you know me, wins don’t impress me too much. Let’s look at his skills.

For his career Hughes has a 4.39 ERA. The AL average during his career is 4.22.

For his career Hughes has a 1.29 WHIP. The AL average during his career is 1.36.

For his career Hughes has a 7.58 K/9. The AL average during his career is 6.89.

For his career Hughes has allowed 8.74 hits per nine. The AL average during his career is 9.05.

For his career Hughes has a 2.64 K/BB. The AL average during his career is 2.13.

For his career Hughes has a 0.75 GB/FB. There isn’t a single team in the AL with a mark lower than 1.04 since 2007.

Some up, some down for Hughes, but overall there isn’t a lot there that makes him stand out substantially from an average AL arm the past six years.

Let’s look a bit closer and take a look at his effort since the start of 2011. Over those 49 games (46 starts), Hughes has gone 21-18 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.17 K/9, 2.90 K/BB. Other than an uptick in his K/BB ratio, again, nothing here paints Hughes as anything more than a league average arm.

‘But Ray, he was really good in 2012.’ Was he though?

Hughes: 4.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.76 K/9, 3.59 K/BB, 0.68 GB/FB
AL Avg: 4.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 2.45 K/BB, no AL team below 1.14 GB/FB

Again, I ask you, other than the K/BB ratio, was Hughes really that good last season?

Let’s compare Hughes to himself.

2012: .552 WIN%, 4.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.76 K/9, 3.59 K/BB
Career: .591 WIN%, 4.39 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.58 K/9, 2.64 K/BB

So if Hughes isn’t substantially better than average, and his 2012 effort was similar to his career numbers… eureka. You have it. Hughes is a fairly average hurler.

To be fair, an I’ve mentioned this a few times, Hughes flashed an impressive 3.59 K/BB ratio. If he could maintain that level I’d have a lot more hope for Hughes. Problem is that mark is nearly a full batter above his 2.64 career mark. The main reason it was so high is that his walk rate fell to 2.16 per nine. That mark was 3.25 in 2011, 2.96 in 2011 and 2.88 in his career. He’s never been such a dart thrower before. If he can continue that… but that’s a big if.

The other factor that will likely limit Hughes no matter what is that sky high fly ball rate. For his career Hughes has a 46 percent fly ball rate that has led to a 0.75 GB/FB ratio (never better than 0.89 in a season). When you allow that many fly balls homers are sure to follow. For his career he has a league average 10.0 HR/F ratio, but the extra fly balls he’s allowed has still saddled him with a 1.25 HR/9 mark for his career, a quarter of a point high compared to the league average. It’s not a totally out of control number but it’s certainly elevated, and that doesn’t play well in New York where fly balls tend to end up in the seats.

I’ve probably painted a worst case scenario here. At the same time, I’m paid to keep it real. And the truth is that Hughes pitched well last year, not great of course, and that for his career he’s been a solid arm but one that is nowhere near capable of leading a fantasy squad. Hughes is fine to add to your club in 2013, he’s not likely to hurt you, but understand that you shouldn’t be sucked in by his win total, or the NY on his hat – he’s simply not that impressive a hurler, though he is a solid support arm for any fantasy club.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – HanRam Dealt, Who Else?

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray breakdown some of the latest trades including Hanley Ramirez going to the Dodgers. They will also discuss some possible pitchers that could be getting traded before the deadline.

Hanley Ramirez, Ichiro, Zack Greinke (who was dealt to the Angels right after this broadcast was recorded).

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Around the Horn: May15, 2012

(1) Matt Kemp to DL.

(2) Christian Friedrich dominating.

(3) Troy Tulowitzki hurt.

(4) Nationals, Yankees, Mets having 9th inning issues.

(5) Dan Haren – buy low candidate?

(6) Jeff Neimann out with a broken leg.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: A.J. Burnett

The Yankees and the Pirates worked out a deal that sends the hard throwing A.J. Burnett to the Pirates in exchange for Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones (neither is a top prospect). The Pirates also received $18 million from the Yanks to help offset the $31 million that Burnett is due to the next two seasons. Just what type of arm did the Pirates roster for the sum of $6.5 million the next two years?

Burnett’s big ticket item in the fantasy game are the punchouts. You may not have realized it, but A.J. struck out 173 batters last season, one fewer than Max Scherzer, the same total as Michael Pineda, four more than Daniel Hudson and seven more than Wandy Rodriguez. Moreover, the past five years Burnett has struck out 920 batters which just so happens to be the 10th best mark in baseball. It’s also heartening to see that he pushed his K/9 mark back over eight last season after seeing it dip to 6.99 in 2010. He isn’t likely to strike out 200 in the coming campaign, but he could easily post another season of 170 (don’t overlook the fact that he will face pitchers instead of the DH).

All those K’s bring up another point with Burnett. Though he’s long been thought of as an injury risk, and rightly so mind you, he’s actually been pretty darn healthy the past four years never failing to hurl at least 185 innings. His total of 805.1 innings the past four years is 22nd in baseball, ahead of guys like Matt Garza (790.1), Gavin Floyd (780.1), John Danks (778.2), Chad Billingsley (776.2) and Ted Lilly (768). It seems like you can safely roster Burnett expecting him to make 30 starts covering 180 innings, and that stability might help you sleep a bit better at night.

Now Burnett has his fault, and this piece isn’t going to be written with rose colored glasses. He still walks too many batters, last year he issued 3.92 walks per nine innings slightly above his 3.79 career mark, but that’s well within the random variation level of acceptance (even if the number is elevated when compared to the big league average). Something he has not been able to get a handle on though is the long ball. The past three years he’s had a HR/9 mark of at least 1.09 including last years mark of 1.47, a career worst (you can at least partly blame a massive 17.0 percent HR/F rate that was well above his 11.3 career mark). This is an area where he could see some improvement. In 2011 Yankee Stadium was 26 percent above the average AL park in terms of allowing home runs according to Park Indices. His new home in Pittsburgh was 19 below the NL average according to Park Indices clearly pointing to the fact that he might be able to see a fair amount of decrease in his homer rate.

Burnett posted a 49.2 percent ground ball rate last year, and that was a four year best. If he can hold on to that number in 2012, while seeing a slight reduction in his HR/9 mark (the park alone should supply that), he could be in line for a significant improvement in his ERA (his xFIP last year, which is the rate normalized to a league average HR rate, showed a three year best at 3.86. How differently would you be looking at him right now if his ERA was 3.86 versus his actual mark of 5.15?).

Here are the facts as I see them.

Burnett has thrown at least 185 innings each of the past four years.
His strikeout total the last five years is the 10th best in baseball.
In 2011 his K/9 and BB/9 rates were smack on his career marks.
His left on base percentage was 70.0 percent (career 71.4).
His GB/FB ratio was 1.52 (career 1.50).
His line drive rate was 18.5 percent (career 18.4).

I don’t know about you, but that certainly doesn’t sound like a guy who should have had a 5.15 ERA. In fact, it sounds much more like the guy who owns a career mark of 4.10. Bid accordingly on draft day 0 i.e. think of the 2009 version (13-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 195 Ks) – as Burnett is likely to offer a solid return on investment because you will likely be able to add him for relative peanuts when others at the draft are starting to swig their beer and make plans to hit the bar scene (to see how little love that Burnett is getting, take a look at Fleaflicker).

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Geezers in the Outfield: Damon, Ibanez, Matsui

Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui have all been solid performers for years (each was a fantasy star at one point, even if you’ve forgotten because it was a while ago). Do any of the three enough residual skill to be of use in the fantasy game in 2012 as anything other than single league options (NL or AL Only)? That’s what we’re going to investigate.

Damon (.261-16-73-79-19) is one of the more stable performers in the history of the game. Really. Damon has appeared in 140 games in 16-straight years to tie Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose for the longest such run in big league history. He’s also had 11 seasons of at least 90 runs scored and 15 steals, the third most such seasons in history. Those aren’t phenomenal numbers, but they have long made him a draft day target after the bigger names were taken. However, Damon has seen his average dip the last three years (.303, .282, .271 and .261) as his bat speed slips, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he posted a BB/K rate under 0.70 (it was 0.55). His GB/FB ratio was pretty standard fair for him at 1.08 (career 1.25), and his line drive mark of 20.2 percent was right on his career rate of 20 percent, so it’s not like he’s totally lost it at the dish. Damon even upped his steals mark to 19 after totaling just 23 in 2009-10. Damon can still produce, an if given 500+ at-bats he still seems capable of replicating the fantasy line he posted last season (though I’d expect the steals to dip even if his bat remained on track).

Ibanez (.245-20-84-65) looked lost last April hitting .161 with a homer before rebounding in May to hit .315 with seven homers. Alas, his production was all over the place as he had three months with an OPS under .600 last year, and that’s just unacceptable. He was also a complete liability against left-handed pitching with a .211/.232/.353 line that made him look like a good hitting pitcher. Yeah, it was pretty brutal. He also hit a mere .210 with a .577 OPS on the road, so it appears that he is in desperate need of an offensive ballpark if he want’s to stave off Father Time for another year. To be fair did record 20 homers and 84 RBI, the 7th straight year he has hit at least 16 homers with 83 RBI, but those numbers were merely the result of playing everyday in a strong lineup in Philly. Ibanez posted an 18.4 K-rate which isn’t awful, but it was his second worst numbers since 1998. He also posted his lowest walk rate since that 1998 season, and the result was a 0.31 BB/K mark that was a drastic fall from his career mark of 0.54. Ibanez also hit more balls into the ground than at any point in his career (46 percent) as his fly ball rate dipped to 35.0 percent, it’s lowest mark since 2005. Can Ibanez still drive in a run? Certainly. But with his declining skill set, and the fact that he will be 40 years old on 1972, any slump at all will likely lead to him being replaced by a younger player up the upswing, not to mention the fact that even in a best case scenario he may be forced into a platoon.

Matsui (.251-12-72-56) can no longer play the field, his knees can’t take the pounding, so his outlook is even more limited than the other two. When he hit just .209 in the first half with a .617 OPS for the A’s, many an epitaph was written for his tombstone. Seemingly finding the fountain of youth, Matsui rebounded to hit a whopping .369 with 22 RBI in July to propel him to a .295 average and 38 RBI over his last 65 games. While that was a great improvement on the first half, those are still middling numbers for a DH. Matsui has failed to hit .275 for three years running, an at this point 20 homers might be a reach as well. Matsui is coming off his career worst HR/F ratio mark of 7.4 percent (career 12.6), and twice in four years that number has been in the single digits. He also hit more grounders last season than he has in three years, and that’s not going to help him reach the seats. Matsui also took fewer walks than he had since 2005, and his K-rate last season was a percentage point above his career rate. If he was 27 years old the outlook wouldn’t be dire, but as a 37 year old, the tires have almost been worn down to the tube. Given that he has appeared in only 46 games in the field the last four years, and that his bat is clearly slowing, it’s nearly impossible to think he’ll be able to appreciably improve upon last years effort.

You can find out where all of the three geezers rank in terms of their projected draft position at Fleaflicker and you can find out how I rank all three players if you purchase the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes was a fantasy star in 2010 winning 18 games for the Yankees, but he fell flat on his face last year going 5-5 with a 5.79 as he fought a mysterious arm issue most of the year. Which Hughes will show up in 2012 – the borderline star of 2010 or the washed up nothing of 2011? That’s the question of the day.

You can read about his rotation mate in Ivan Nova’s Player Profile.

I’ll say this off the top, I wasn’t a fan of Hughes heading into the 2011 season. As early as April of last season I was telling people to be very nervous about Hughes (you can read my thoughts in the April 12th Mailbag). As I stated in that piece, Hughes was dealing with a mysterious arm related issue. At various points he lost 5-7 mph off his fastball and the team was generally perplexed. Tests were run, surgery was contemplated, but in the end it was determined that there was nothing structurally wrong with his arm. He was placed on the 60 day DL and worked through his issues only to return and injure his back. Ultimately the mph came back alleviating some concern, but his previous self never quite returned in 2011.

Hughes did pitch moderately better over his last 13 outings of 2011 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 2.00 K/BB ratio, but those numbers are hardly imposing nor do they match what he accomplished in 2010 (4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.52 K/BB). There is also this; Hughes was phenomenal in the first half in 2010 going 11-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 16 starts. However, since the All-Star break in 2010, his performance would relegate him to the waiver-wire in almost every league if not for (1) his name and (2) the logo on his jersey. Here are the poor numbers he’s produced since mid-July 2010:

12-11, 5.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, 1.82 K/BB over 150 IP

How bad are those numbers? A.J. Burnett, Hughes’ teammate on the Yankees and one of the biggest disappointments in 2011, went 11-11 with a 5.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.08 K/BB. Pretty close ain’t it? Again, I’m not talking about five starts, or 50 innings with Hughes, I’m talking about Hughes being a decidedly sub par hurler for 150 innings. That’s an awfully long time, an in truth, he’s been awful longer than he’s been good (remember he really only stood out as a starting pitcher in the first half of the 2010 season).

Looking at his career numbers, the picture doesn’t brighten that much either. His career 7.51 K/9 mark is is about a half batter above the league average, but that number is greatly enhanced by his work out of the bullpen in 2009 (96 Ks in 86 innings). His 3.18 walk rate is big league average leaving his 2.36 K/BB ratio as only slightly better than the norm which is about 2.10. His 70.4 percent left on base rate is smack dab on the league average. His .286 BABIP is just off the .290-.300 big league average. His 8.9 HR/F ratio is right there with the big league average that usually sits in the 9-10 percent range. His 1.08 HR/9 ratio, not surprisingly, is league average. Finally, his 0.78 GB/FB ratio certainly isn’t good an it’s well below the league average of just over 1.00. See what I mean when I write that so much of his value is based on 18 wins in 2010 and the NY logo on his jersey?

I will not be targeting Hughes in any league in 2012. In fact, I’ll be hard pressed to end up with him on my roster unless I’m in an AL-only league. He certainly posted strong fantasy numbers in 2010, but as I’ve laid out above, that was based nearly entirely on his hot first half. Over his last 150 innings he’s been a bad pitcher, it’s just as simple as that, and for his career the numbers show a replacement level arm at work. He might return to prominence in 2012 but it would be a bad move to count on that occurring.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ivan Nova

Ivan Nova won 16 games in 2011 and he pitches for the Yankees. Is that enough to get excited about this young righty heading into 2012?

When you pitch for the Yankees, everyone knows your name. When you win 16 games and only lose four outings, everyone really knows your name. When you go 8-0 in your last 11 starts, there isn’t a person in baseball who doesn’t know your name. Given all of that, I return to the question I just posed – how excited should you be about adding Nova to your roster for the upcoming season?

First off, and I say this all the time, broken record style, there is no way to predict wins and loses. Nova could pitch better than he did in 2011 and his record could end up being 10-13. You just never know. Second, Nova will be overvalued in 2012 because of his win total and the fact that he pitches for the Yankees, so don’t buy into that hype because if you do, you’ll likely end up being pretty disappointed. Why? Here are some reasons.

(1) Nova had a decent ERA of 3.70. Still, that’s not much better than the big league average of 3.94 in the ERA category in 2011. Additionally, Nova’s xFIP was 4.16 suggesting that his ERA might have been a wee bit artificially low.

(2) Nova had a decent WHIP of 1.33. Still, that’s worse than the big league average of 1.32.

(3) Nova had only 98 Ks last season in 165.1 innings pitched which equates to a 5.33 K/9 mark. That mark is nearly two full batters below the 2011 big league average of 7.13 per nine. As a general rule I never target a pitcher with a K/9 mark under 6.00 (really 6.50 in most cases). That doesn’t mean I won’t draft a guy with a K/9 mark that is worse than that benchmark, but I will never target an arm that can’t get out of jams via the punchout.

(4) Nova walked an average of 3.10 batters per nine innings. That is merely 0.01 better than the big league average.

So to wrap that little review up Nova was barely average in ERA and BB/9, while he was worse than big league average in WHIP and K/9 in 2011. Given the importance of strikeouts in standard 5×5 leagues, the deficiency in that category limits Nova’s value substantially. Add in the fact that wins are so variable, and that is another strike against Nova.

On the plus side, I have to give Nova credit for his impressive 1.83 GB/FB ratio, the result of an impressive sinker that resulted in nearly 53 percent of batted balls being pounded into the earth. Don’t get me wrong, pitchers can have a ton of extended success with a skill set like this, but that doesn’t mean they should be guys you target in the fantasy game. Tell me, which pitcher would you rather have rostered in 2011?

Ivan Nova: 1.83 GB/FB, 5.55 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 1.33 WHIP in 165.1 IP
Pitcher B: 1.77 GB/FB, 5.38 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 IP

Are there a lot of you out there who are going to rush to draft Pitcher B, Paul Maholm, in 2012?

Keep expectations in check with Nova, and that means realizing Nova is a 4/5 starter in mixed leagues and nothing more.

By Ray Flowers