Around the Horn: September 19, 2012

(1) Ian Kinsler a dynamic option at second base.

(2) What do Chase Headley, Ryan Braun and Alfonso Soriano have in common?

(3) Yonder Alonso streaking at the dish.

(4) Tim Lineceum turned his season around.

(5) Erick Aybar producing in the average and steals columns.

(6) Orioles call up phenom Dylan Bundy.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 13: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+12, $96,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
In his last four games he has gone deep twice and driven in nine runs, and for the month of June he drove the ball into the seats seven times while platting 20 runs. He’s still hitting a mere .231 on the season, and it just doesn’t appear like he is ever going to be able to be a positive producer in that category (even in June he hit just .262). Don’t worry about his leg issue. Apparently it was just cramps and he should be fine.

Clint Barmes (+11, $66K)
The guy has been a monumental failure this season, even in NL-only leagues. On the year Barmes has somehow used 225 at-bats to produce a mere .204/230/.307 line. Never really an All-Star caliber performer despite a couple of nice seasons, he was usually effective when in the lineup. Well, at least he is improving of late. After hitting .149 in April he batted .189 in May and pushed that mark to .247 in June when he had 11 RBI after knocking in just seven runners the first two months of the year.

Freddie Freeman ($19, $105K)
It seems like every week there is some new malady that he is being forced to overcome. Even with all his missed time he still has 10 homers and 47 RBI putting him on pace to better his totals from last year (21 and 76). He’s also produced at least one hit in each of his last six games as he’s knocked in six runs, scored six times, and seen his batting average climb from .247 to .266 in that time.

Yasmani Grandal (+14, $64K)
This switch hitter can sometimes get a little long with his hacks, but as we last week, when he lays into it the ball can fly (his first two big league homers came from each side of the dish). The weeks #1 pickup behind the dish, Grandal has a big enough bat that he could be able to largely keep Nick Hundley out of the mix the rest of the season (when you hit .166 over 193 at-bats like Hundley has, leading to a demotion to the minors, it may not be that hard to do).

Justin Ruggiano (+13, $91K)
Have you noticed that through 54 at-bats this season that Justin is blasting the ball to the tune of a .389 average, a .469 OBP and .704 SLG? Amazing is right. He’ll continue to be in the lineup on a daily basis until he slows down, Ozzie Guillen might have his issues but he’s no moron. Really just an NL-only option unless you’re desperate in a mixed league.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Yonder Alonso (-22, $60K)
Wait, wasn’t this guy supposed to be able to hit? Through 268 at-bats this season he has two homers and 18 RBI. Toss in 23 runs scored and two steals, and he has been one of the least productive full time performers in baseball. When you look over to the average column and find a .257 mark sitting there, thanks to a .218 mark in June, you’ll begin to realize just how disappointing his effort has been this year.

Zack Cozart (-21, $56K)
Every time this guys name is mentioned people get all excited. Why? Sure his 17 homer pace is nice for a shortstop, and if he scored 90 runs that would be great, but the guy just isn’t a good offensive performer. He’s hitting a sub par .245, and his .290 OBP is hideous. He’s only swiped two bases on the year, and despite the power he’s displayed he’s on pace for about 40 RBI. Don’t know why anyone get’s excited about that (at least over at Fleaflicker his owned percentage is pretty low).

Michael Cuddyer (-28, $70K)
Uh oh. Everyone’s darling in Colorado has hit the skids. He’s still on pace for 25 homers and 100 RBI, so the run production has been there, but he’s also seen his batting average dip to .256 and his OBP is .311 after a June he’d like to forget (.212/.257). Also a bit concerning is his 21 percent K-rate after that number has been under 18.5 percent each of the past five years and under 17 percent each of the past two years.

Chris Davis (-26, $60K)
After a horrific dry spell that saw him go eight games without a hit, Davis has rebounded a bit with four hits in his last three games. Even with the dip he’s hitting .271 with 13 homers, and those numbers, if doubled, would still be a solid season for a guy who may have fooled a few people as he was hitting .300 as recently as June 16th. He’s simply not a .300 hitter.

Kendrys Morales (-20, $60K)
Oh you dreaded hype machine. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon when Morales had a scorching week in spring training, everyone it seemed by me of course. Hey, the guy is on pace to hit about .280 with 17 homers, and those aren’t bad numbers for a guy who didn’t play a single game last year. Still, disappointments abounds with a a guy who is also on pace for a .750 OPS with 60 RBI.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Reds Deal to Add Latos

It’s been a few days since the Reds and Padres swung a huge deal, and with the dust settled I thought it would be a good time to investigate both sides and see if there was a winner and loser,

Padres Receive: Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger

Reds receive: Mat Latos

Reds Haul – The Reds got the most productive player in the deal in Latos. A legitimate rising star, Latos went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 189 Ks as a 22 year old in 2010. Last year the record was reversed, he went 9-14, while his ERA (3.47), and WHIP (1.18) went up. He also struck out four fewer batters in 9.2 more innings, but that’s a wash.

For the past two years Latos has been one of the better right-handed pitchers in the NL. He’s also very young which means he’s a nice addition for a team in Cincinnati that needs cost certainty with their players. As for what to expect from Latos, there are some issues to keep an eye on. With only two seasons of data to rely on I’m admittedly guessing a bit here, but I don’t like to see his K/9 rate and ground ball rate go down while his BB/9 rate and line drive rate went up in his second full season. I also don’t like the fact that he’s leaving one of the best pitchers park’s in baseball for a yard that clearly favors the hitter. This is especially concerning given that his 1.03 GB/FB rate for his career is league average. Since Great America ballpark is the most homer happy park in the NL according to Park Indices, he might have a hard time keep that ERA in the low 3′s.

Padres Haul – Where to begin.

Volquez is a mess. Oh he owns a solid arm he did go 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA  and 206 Ks in 2008, but the last few years he has struggled to throw strikes (the last three years his BB/9 mark has been above 5.00). Until he does a better job of location his pitches, it’s going to be very difficult to count on him as anything more than a 5th starter. Still, he moves to Petco which should rectify his homer woes, and when you factor in that he has posted an impressive 1.75 GB/FB ratio over his last 171.1 innings, you can see there is a chance that he could post some top-shelf pitching totals with half the Padres games at Petco.

Alonso hit .330 with a .943 OPS in 88 at-bats last season and he projects as a solid bat at first base (he’s been tried as on outfielder, but he really doesn’t have the athleticism for it). Alonso has also hit .296 with a .842 OPS in 192 games at Triple-A seemingly proving that his time is now. The addition by the Padres is a bit odd though given that they already have Anthony Rizzo as their first baseman of the future. Maybe they work out a way for the duo to play together – possibly Alonso in that outfield role – but the winds are suggesting that the Pads might deal Rizzo this offseason.

Grandal is a switch hitter who is close to being ready for the bigs (his addition likely ends the future with the Padres for Nick Hundley). Grandal hit .303 with 14 homers, 69 RBI and a .401 OBP as he flew through three minor league levels last season. His time will come, likely in 2013.

Boxberger is the least exciting name in the group, though it’s not like he doesn’t have a big arm. After all, he’s struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings in his 153.2 innings as a big league hurler. He worked as a starter in 2010, but last year he was moved to the bullpen.

Winner – Come on now, it’s not even close. I have no idea what the Reds were doing in this deal. They dealt away Volquez, who already has a season on his record that is equivalent to what Latos has posted the last two years. They dealt away Alonso, a bat that many predict could hit .300 with 20 homers year after year. They dealt away a catching prospect in Grandal who was the 12th overall selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft. We’ve heard the Reds say, ‘but we have Joey Votto at first base and Devin Mesoraco is an even better option at catcher than Grandal,’ but even so, you don’t just give up talent because you have depth. Maybe this deal will result in the Reds winning their division in 2012, but moving forward this has the ring of the type of deal that the Giants made years ago when they sent Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski.

By Ray Flowers

Still Making a Difference

It’s that time of year where things can fall apart at a moments notice. Troy Tulowitzki is likely out for a couple of days with a hip issue, while teammate Todd Helton continues to battle back woes. Jimmy Rollins is back in action, but he’s going to be worked into the lineup slowly getting more time than usual on the bench (sounds like he could sit two of the next six games). So what do you do? Who can you count on at this point? Let me point out a few guys that might be worth a look.

Willie Bloomquist, D’Backs
With Stephen Drew out, Willie is seeing a lot of playing time. Willie’s batting .350 thew past three weeks with four steals and eight runs scored. He’s little more than a depth play in mixed leagues, but he’s going well right now.

Nick Evans, Mets
He has been a run producing beast the past three weeks with three homers and 15 RBI. He’s also not killing anyone with his .286 batting average.

David Murphy, Rangers
Everyone was nervous when Nelson Cruz was activated from the DL, but now comes word that the Rangers are going to play it safe with their always injured slugger and he’s only going to pinch hit for the next few days. This means Murphy will continue to play everyday for at least another week. Murphy has two 4-hit games in his last six outings and three in his last 10 games. In that time he’s also gone deep four times with 11 RBI and 10 runs scored. There simply aren’t many batters hitting any better right now.

Ramon Santiago, Tigers
I know, you could care less about this guy, but if you’re in need of a batting average boost, there are many, many worse options right now. Ramon is hitting .346 over his last 52 at-bats, and he’s even tossed in two homers and 11 RBI.

Some other batters who are killing it even without daily playing time the past three weeks.

Yonder Alonso has no spot on the field, but he clearly knows what he’s doing with a bat in his hands. Alonso has 14 hits in his last 41 at-bats leading to a .342 average. Funny thing, that’s actually worse than his .386 mark on the year for the Reds.

Mike Aviles has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats (.450). Why he isn’t seeing more playing time over Jed Lowrie (0-for-16 and 1-for-24) is a bit of a mystery.

Bryan LaHair has 11 hits in 24 at-bats leading to a .458 average. After hitting .331 with 38 homers in Triple-A this year the only question right now is why isn’t he playing everyday?

Where do you rank Andre Ethier for next year?
-  @k_roccco

Ethier’s year is over because of a situation with his knee that will require surgery, but he should be 100 percent well before the start of games in 2012. Ethier has had a rocky path dealing with the Dodgers front office and coaching staff, and being that he is arbitration eligible next season, and set to become a free agent in 2013, it’s quite possible that the Dodgers might be inclined to move him. A move out of LA would only help Ethier since he could (a) use a fresh start and (b) enjoy himself more fully in a park that more readily favored offensive production.

Ethier was a disappointment this season in some respects while living up to expectations in others. His batting average of .292 was a point better than his career mark, and his .368 OBP was .004 better than his career mark there (.364). However, after 3-straight years of at least 20 homers he slumped to just 11 this season, while his 3-year run of at least 77 RBI also ended (he had a mere 62). Considering that he has no stolen base speed, he didn’t even swipe one base this year, his effort was nothing more than a middling one for an outfielder, something like a 5th outfielder in a 12 team mixed league.

Can Ethier bounce back in 2012? Certainly. He’s just 29 years old and will presumably be in full health. You’d also have to expect his fly ball ratio to climb back from a career worst 31 percent (career 36.3) and for his HR/F to also inch back upward (it was 9.2 percent this year after three years in a row above 13.5 percent). He still shouldn’t be looked at as a 30 homer bat, and he wont steal any bases, but if his normal power returns in 2012 he could be a top-25 outfielder yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Rookies, Former Disappointments an a CL

Rookie disappointments, players trying to finally catch their groove, and a closer who doesn’t get the respect that he is due highlight today’s article.

John Axford is the Brewers closer. Period. I know everyone got all nervous when Francisco Rodriguez was brought into town, but the Brew Crew has done the right thing and left Axford alone as the arm working the 9th. K-Rod has done very well in a setup role with a 2.45 ERA and 15 Ks in 11 innings since joining the club, but it’s Axford who deserves all the accolades. Not only is he 33 for 35 in saves, the last time he blew a chance was April 18th as he’s racked up 64 Ks in 54.1 innings. He’s as good as there is at shutting down an opponent.

Chris Davis is one of my favorite late round gambles each year. To this point, he’s done little at the big league level to warrant the love, but perhaps things will change now that he is in Baltimore. Apparently over a scare with his shoulder, Davis appears slated to see daily playing time in the Orioles’ lineup. Davis hit .368 with 24 homers and 66 RBI in just 48 games at Triple-A this year, and though he would be lucky to get within a hundred points of that batting average, the power is legit. After all, he has averaged 24 homers per 500 at-bats during his big league career (43 homers in 903 at-bats).

Conor Jackson’s career was at a crossroads coming into this season. A first round pick in 2003, his last couple of seasons had been ruined by ill health. He started out slowly this year, and with the A’s logjam at first and in the outfield he just wasn’t seeing regular playing time. He’s slowly started to come around though as he hit .292 in July and .309 over his last 21 games. He still isn’t flashing much power with only four homers in 299 at-bats, but the sweet stroke is finally back.

Rich Harden is always one pitch, heck one step, from the trainer’s table. It took him forever to get on the field this year, but once out there he has performed very well. Harden may have an elevated 4.07 ERA for the Athletics but he has 45 Ks in 42 innings, is sporting a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and his WHIP (1.17) is a rather impressive total for a hurler in the AL. He’s only lasted more than six innings twice in seven outings, but he’s looked pretty much like his old self when on the bump.

Rookie Report

Yonder Alonso – The guy has no position, he recently embarrassed himself in the outfield, and he’s not going to supplant Joey Votto at first base any time soon. Still, the kid can hit and he’s gone 8-for-17 (.471) this year to up his career mark to .304 in 46 at-bats in the bigs.

Desmond Jennings – He’s looked every bit the Carl Crawford clone in 17 games hitting .328 with 11 RBI, 11 runs scored and eight steals. He has been marvelous.

Mike Moustakas – He’s hitting .193 with one homer through 171 at-bats, and his OPS is .497. The poor average is a head scratchier but one homer in 171 at-bats? That’s just vexing.

By Ray Flowers