ADP Talk: What Stands Out?

With the fantasy sports world just about over football – for those of you that have already moved on the Superbowl is in a week – mock drafts for baseball are really starting to heat up. Today, in preparation for our discussion on the Fanball Fantasy Drive (you can hear the show every day, from 5-8 PM EDT, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 – you can call in with your questions on any fantasy sport), I thought I would point out some of the interesting ADP trends that stuck out for me when I was reviewing things over at MockDraftCentral this morning.

Third Base Going Early

Almost the first term out of everyone’s mouth this draft season seems to be “position scarcity.” There are a couple of positions that seem pretty top heavy with shortstop and third base being at the head of the list. When looking at the ADP information we find fourth third basemen going in the top-20 selections: Evan Longoria (ADP of 5 overall), David Wright (10), Alex Rodriguez (16) and Ryan Zimmerman (20). I completely agree that those are the top-4 third sackers on the board, but I really wonder if it’s worth reaching on Longoria as a top-5 option. Just compare his numbers last season to Zimmerman.

Longoria: .294-22-104-96-15
Zimmerman: .307-25-85-85-4

Longoria certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’d lean toward Zimmerman in the second versus Longoria that early given the return on investment (ROI) opportunity.

The Top-5 Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (4), Jose Reyes (26), Jimmy Rollins (43), Derek Jeter (48) – that’s your top-5. Only two other shortstops are in the top-100: Elvis Andrus (71) and Alex Ramirez (100).

Hanley Ramirez OPS dropped .101 points last year. He’s also seen his homer total dip from 33 to 21 the last three years while his runs scored marked has gone from 125 to 92. Is he really the no-doubt #2 man overall?

Reyes 17 picks ahead of Rollins? I’m not buying that. You can read about my thoughts on those two in Top-10 SS for 2011. I also don’t think that Jeter is a bad pickup this year (The Value of Jeter). At the same time, Ramirez hit .012 points higher than Jeter, with eight more homers, three more RBI and just five fewer steals last season – and he is available 52 picks later.

Only One SP in Top-20

Only one starting pitcher is going in the top-20, and that is the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. Most people tend to eschew starting pitching early in drafts because there is more volatility with pitchers from year to year. At the same time, with hitting on the decline, perhaps pitchers should be taken a bit earlier? Nah. Only two other hurlers are going in the top-34: Tim Lincecum (21) and Felix Hernandez (27).

* Riddle me this – which one of these pitching lines would you want most?

12-9, 3.18 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.00 WHIP in 212.1 IP
13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP
11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 183.2 IP

Those numbers belong to Cliff Lee (37), Clayton Kershaw (51) and Josh Johnson (66). Are you sure you want to reach that early for Mr. Lee?

Hell, do you want Lincecum (21) over Kershaw (51) given what each will cost you?

Lincecum: 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 212.1 IP
Kershaw: 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP

* When are most teams jumping in and taking their #1 starter? Look at picks 53-66 for that as eight of those 14 picks are being spent on starting pitchers.

People Waiting on RPs

Not surprisingly, the best closer in the history of baseball is being drafted first at the position as Mariano Rivera has an ADP of 61. Only four other relievers are going in the top-100 with a clear grouping of three others being taken ahead of everyone else: Carlos Marmol (71), Brian Wilson (77), Joakim Soria (78). After that, we have to wait until Heath Bell at 96.

People Waiting on Catchers

Five catchers are being taken in the top-100 as people seem acutely aware of the fact that injuries can bite backstops at any time. Moreover, only six catchers are going in the next 100 picks meaning that in standard 12 team, 1 catcher leagues, someone is waiting until after the 200th selection to take first catcher. Currently, the 12th and 13th catchers off the board are Yadier Molina (215) and Carlos Ruiz (221). Those are the two catchers I selected in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA (that league starts two catchers).

* Catchers going in the 300′s that could be decent bargains in 2011: Chris Iannetta (337), Yorvit Torrealba (372) and J.P. Arencebia (374).

You can read more about Torrealba in Californian’s on the Move, and if the dumba– Rockies would just give Iannetta regular at-bats, he could be a fantasy beast. Per 541 at-bats in his career, Iannetta has produced an average of 25 homers and 91 RBI. Think Mike Napoli-lite.

By Ray Flowers

Californian’s on the Move

Uribe to Dodgers

Jose Uribe, coming off a career best season of 24 homers and 85 RBI, signed a 3-year deal for $21 million to leave the World Champion San Francisco Giants (it’s still an amazing feeling to write that), to move south to join the Dodgers. He now becomes a hated player in this writers’ household as he joined the Dodgers placing his name alongside the likes of Benedict Arnold.

Now I’m not saying that the Giants should have matched the offer, they certainly should not have. It’s too much money, and too many years for Uribe. Why the Dodgers would give him that contract for Uribe to play second base is also a mystery. They already have 37 year old Casey Blake at third, and an aging an injury prone Rafael Furcal at short which means that Uribe will play second base. He’ll give them ample power for that spot (he’ll still qualify at third and shortstop in fantasy baseball 2011 as well), but let’s put things in perspective.

Uribe is a career .256 hitter who batted .248 last season.

Uribe never walks. His career-high was in 2010 when he walked all of 45 times. As a result, his OBP is .300 for his career. Not his batting average, his OBP. That’s dreadful when you consider that the league average since 2001. the start of his career, is .337.

Though he has hit 20-homers four times, he has averaged only 17 homers per 500 at-bats in his career. Speaking of 500 at-bats, he has only eclipsed that mark twice (2007 and 2010), and his career SLG of .431 is just five points better than the league average during his career.

Uribe also has no speed with only seven steals the last five seasons.

Only once in three years has he hit more than 16 homers.
Only once in three years has he scored more than 50 runs.
Only once in three years has he had more than 55 RBI.
Only once in three years has he hit over .250.

To wrap it up, the Dodger gave a 33 year old versatile infielder who has averaged, per 500 at-bats in his career a line of.256-17-69-63 with a .731 OPS, $7 million a year for three years. I can’t envision a scenario where they don’t end up regretting that.

Torrealba to Rangers

Yorvit Torrealba left the Padres to join the Rangers as he signed a 2-year deal for $6.25 million. Yorvit will replace Bengie Molina as the Rangers #1 man behind the dish (it’s not known if Molina will retire or look for another deal).

Torrealba had a Catcher’s ERA of 3.14 in 2010, and that was the best mark in Padres history for a catcher who appeared in 81 or more games. It was also the lowest since Paul Lo Duca posted the same mark in 2003 for the Dodgers. The Rangers had the 4th best ERA in the AL in 2010 with a 3.93 mark, so Yorvit will have a solid staff to work with.

As for his offense, it’s pretty fair for a catcher. It’s always hard to tell how good a guy is when his playing time is sporadic, and that is certainly the case with Torrealba who has had only one season in his career of more than 325 at-bats. Torrealba has 538 at-bats the past two years, basically a full season, an in that time he has hit .279 with nine homers, 68 RBI, 58 runs and a .725 OPS. He also moves from arguably the worst hitting park in baseball in San Diego for one of the best in Texas, and that should certainly help his production. All told, he is a sure fire starting in AL-only leagues, and he has a legit shot to be a solid second catcher in mixed leagues as well, especially if he is able to increase his at-bat total a bit. This deal, unlike the one given to Uribe, seems like a really good move for the Rangers, especially when a guy like John Buck got 3-years and $18 million from the Marlins.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.5, 2010

(1) Buster Posey to play the infield in spring?

(2) Madison Bumgarner Giants 5^th starter?

(3) Orlando Hudson to Twins results in Adam Kennedy to Nationals.

(4) Yorvit Torrealba ends up with Padres.

(5) Brandon Webb to throw off mound.

(6) Kevin Gregg is the newest member of the Blue Jays bullpen.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Catchers

To be truthful, and everyone knows I’m nothing if not honest, I went to the bathroom today and grabbed the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide for a quick read. As I perused the magazine I started looking at my top-10 selections at each position and thought – I bet their would be some value to reviewing how accurate my predictions were last season. With that, I thought I would plow through each position on the diamond over the next while doing just that. Today, I’ll start with the catchers, and look for the other reviews soon as I move through each position.

* Note: These projections were rendered in January of 2009, so keep that in mind if some of them seem a bit off in retrospect.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Russell Martin
4. Geovany Soto
5. Victor Martinez
6. Bengie Molina
7. Ryan Doumit
8. Kelly Shoppach
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Mike Napoli

Now you know why I suggest skipping on taking catchers early in a draft.

Of that group, I was dead on with the top-2, of course that wasn’t too hard to predict. After that, it got spotty in a hurry.

Martin really wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be even though he had full season lows in homers (seven), RBI (53), runs (63) and average (.250). Honestly he wasn’t, he was just really unlucky. I’m looking for a nice rebound effort in 2010 – he should come cheaper than he should.

Soto was a total flop, due to injury and the fact that he simply wasn’t as good as he appeared to be in 2008. Simple really.

V-Mart was a remarkable comeback story after an abysmal 2008 effort (.278-2-35 in 266 ABs). All he did was rebound to his established levels hitting .303-23-108, but it was still a wonderful season thanks to full health.

Molina continues to do his thing, and do it well despite being the slowest man on Earth. He was basically the Giants second best hitter behind Pablo Sandoval as he hit a career best 20 homers while knocking in at least 80-runs for the third time in three years in a Giants uniform.

Doumit was injured and never really able to get going last season. He isn’t the .318-15-69 hitter he was in ’08, but he also isn’t the bum that hit only .250-10-38 last year.

Shoppach was supposed to flourish behind the dish when the Tribe eventually traded V-Mart. Well they traded Martinez all right, but Shoppach wasn’t able to take advantage of anything as he fell to 12 homers and 40 RBI a year after hitting 21 long balls with 55 ribbies. He did lose 81 at-bats in 2009, and that certainly didn’t help. Neither did his .214 average.

Iannetta hit only .228, this after hitting .264 in 2008, and he also lost two homers and 13 RBI from his 2008 effort (18 HR, 65 RBI). Chris was given 44 fewer at-bats thanks to a late season surge at the dish by Yorvit Torrealba so the power numbers would have likely been right there if he had been given the same opportunity.

Napoli wasn’t at his best either. First off, Jeff Mathis continued to eat into his playing time. Secondly, was limited a but by injury, though he still was able to post 155 more at-bats than in 2008. As a result there was little difference in his homers (20 and 20) or RBI (49 and 56), but obviously the rate at which he produced them dipped a ton.

So there is my list at the catcher position. I know it doesn’t look great in retrospect, but then again, I always preface my rankings at this position saying that there is no accounting for the injuries and wear and tear on the body for the men who pull on the tools of ignorance.

By Ray Flowers