Daily Joust – Wk 6: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ryan Dempster (+14, $357K in DailyJoust salary)
Working around an injury, Dempster has taken the hill five times this year with spectacular results: 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and never allowing more than two runs in a start. He’s also posted a 3.60 K/BB ratio while striking out 36 batters in 35.1 innings. You really can’t pitch much better than he has to this point. The only negative is the anemic offensive support that he has received as he’s failed to win a game, again, despite only allowing more than one run one time (he allowed two runs to the Brewers). Shame on you Cubs.

Christian Friedrich (+77, $228K)
Was recalled to take the spot of Guillermo Moscoso in the Rockies rotation and he had a solid first start allowing two runs, only one earned, over six innings against the Padres. However, the start was against the Padres, and it was at Petco, so that makes profiling the effort difficult. This left hander has had a rough couple of years after once being regarded as one of the better lefty pitching prospects in the game. Last season he went 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA at Double-A, so it would be wise to be very wary of him turning into Lance Lynn anytime soon.

Jimmy Rollins (+11, $72K)
No player on the Phils has struggled worse than Rollins with Howard-Utley out of the mix. Hitting just .230 with one homer the only thing keeping Rollins afloat is his seven steals. For a guy with a putrid .275 OBP his 17 runs scored in 35 games isn’t bad, and it’s not like he’s going to be losing any playing time, but this has still been a painfully slow start to the year. Just a season removed from 16 homers, 30 steals and 87 runs scored, did Rollins get “old” overnight? I’m betting he didn’t.

Yovani Gallardo (+48, $243K)
After that shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (8 ER in 2.0 IP) Gallardo, as he always does, rebounded in his last two outings to allow a total of five runs while striking out 12 batters in 12 innings. In one of the odder starts to a season of any arm out there, if you remove his two starts against the Cardinals – 14 ERA in 5.2 innings – here are his numbers from his other five starts: 2.45 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP. Just don’t pitch him when he faces the Cards and you would appear to be fine.

Jake Westbrook (+52, $323K)
We’ve seen plenty of pitchers have their career revived while pitching in St. Louis, so maybe Westbrook is the next arm in that line to do so. His 1.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through six starts are special, especially for a guy with carer marks of 4.27 and 1.39. Only once in six starts has he failed to produce a quality start, and he wasn’t awful in that outing allowing four runs. Through 41 innings he has a solid 2.70 K/BB ratio, but it’s one full batter above his career rate, while his 5.93 K/9 mark is also a batter above his carer norm. Pitchers don’t usually post career bests in those numbers in their 12th big league season. Solid but unspectacular, he has nowhere to go but down from here.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Homer Bailey (-47, $162)
Blessed with a big arm, Bailey simply cannot form any type of consistency. A run of 4-straight quality starts was broken up by a stinker against the Brewers as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings. He’s also been taken deep six times in six starts helping to explain his 4.93 ERA. His current K/BB rate of 1.85 points to just how middling a performer he continues to be (over at Fleaflicker he is only owned in seven percent of leagues). It certainly doesn’t seem like his rotation spot is in serious jeopardy, but at some point the Reds are going to need to see some improvement, or at least some consistency.

Asdrubal Cabrera (-19, $96K)
Hitting .315 on the season would be a tremendous accomplishment for a guy who owns a .283 career mark. However, Cabrera was hitting .356 literally a week ago so he’s clearly slumped a wee bit. Asdrubal one one RBI in his last seven games, and he has just three homers and two steals on the season. Where is the guy that went 25/17 last year? He’s just where I said he would be in his Player Profile – he’s gone.

Ross Detwiler (-52, $247K)
Ross has made six starts, has failed to allow more than three runs in an outing, owns a 2.10 ERA an a 1.02 WHIP through 34.1 innings. It’s impossible to find any fault with his efforts so far this year. As I’ve said before he doesn’t have the underlying skills to support this hot start, but he is generating a ground ball rate of 54 percent with 6.55 K’s per nine, so maybe the landing will be a soft one even when the regression comes. So maybe he isn’t going to win the Cy Young award this season but he’s still had a wonderful start to the season.

Dan Haren (-80, $227K)
If his current owner is panicking after he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start, or because he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, now is the time to pounce. Haren is sporting a 7.33 K/9 mark, slightly better than last season, and he’s currently walking a mere 1.88 batters per nine innings (career 1.89). He’s also been saddled with a .323 BABIP which might continue, but at the same time he’s never had a mark above .311 for a season and owns a career mark of .290. I’m also pretty confident he won’t end the year with a 22.9 percent line drive rate which would be a career worst. Given time to normalize Haren should do just that.

Ian Kennedy (-36, $229K)
He was never going to match last season, so put that out of your head (see his Player Profile). Still, prior to giving up six runs in his last outing, Kennedy had a 3.23 ERA through six starts showing that’s he’s still darn likely to be a successful arm. Through seven outings Kennedy owns an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio and his GB/FB, HR/F and line drive rates are all pretty darn similar to last season, so just pass on from the bad outing the last time he took the hill and realize this is still one fine fantasy option.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 5: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Nelson Cruz (+29, $84K in DailyJoust salary)
How is this for a change – Cruz has been healthy but unproductive, the polar opposite of what we normally see from him. Cruz is sporting a sickly .216 batting average and his .269 OBP is only two points above his career batting average. Why the power outage? Good question. The past four years his HR/F ratio has been at least 15 percent. Currently it’s sitting at 6.5 percent. When that number rebounds, and it should, we could see some homers in bunches (over at Fleaflicker people seem to recognize that fact, just look at his percentage owned rate). Be wary though of a 5.9 percent BB-rate which would be a six year low and his 26.1 K-rate which would be a five year high.

Howie Kendrick (+16, $86K)
Kendrick boosted his average over .030 points in the past week but even so it’s still at just .275 (career .292). Howie has appeared in 26 of 29 games so far, and though he hasn’t been a standout my any means his current pace would equate to 22 homers and 61 RBI which would be a nice follow up to his 18-63 effort of last year. He’ll be solid and productive, but he could certainly stand to take a walk every once in a while (just three so far this season).

Carlos Lee (+15, $83K)
Boring but productive. That should be the name on the back of Lee’s jersey. Hitting .289 through 25 games, Lee’s current RBI pace would lead to 91 RBI over the course of 162 games (he has 14 in 25 games). The power has yet to show itself with only two bombs, but it’s just a matter of time before he hits a few balls into the seats. Don’t overlook Lee in the fantasy game, even if the ceiling is pretty low.

Jeff Samardzija (+49, $256K)
In 8.2 innings JS gave up 10 runs to the Cardinals and Marlins. In his other three starts he’s allowed two runs. The result is an impressive, though uneven, start to the year that has led the Cubs heat hucking righty to a 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 32 Ks in 31.2 innings. A bit more consistency would obviously be great, but Jeff’s transition to the starting rotation has gone about as well as could be expected (see that 3.20 K/BB rate).

Edinson Volquez (+85, $272K)
So far the 2012 season has been a success for Volquez. He has a 2.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through six starts which are numbers that harken back to his massive 2008 season in which he posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Volquez still has walked 18 batters in 37 innings, far too many, and he doesn’t have a victory thanks to the Padres terrible offense, but overall this has been an impressive start for the hard throwing righty.

Jered Weaver (+93, $466K)
A no-hitter boosts anyone’s value. Weaver also tossed six shutout innings in his previous start so he’s lowered his ERA to 1.61. He’s also walked seven batters in six outings leading to a 0.78 WHIP and he’s also whiffed 45 batters in 44.2 innings. Face it, the guy is one of a handful of arms in baseball that can legitimately be called an ace.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Yovani Gallardo (-37, $195K)
Last year Gallardo had games in which he gave up seven, six, six an eight earned runs. He still finished the year with a 3.52 ERA. The fact is that Gallardo is as up and down as pretty much any elite level arm in the league. However, when the season is over the numbers are always impressive. Consider that in each of the past three years he’s won at least 13 games with and ERA under 3.85 an at least 200 Ks. His ERA might be 5.79 and that WHIP ghastly at 1.65 but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if we saw the numbers we have come to expect from Yovani by the end of the year.

Roy Halladay (-46, $278K)
Bombed in his last outing (eight earned runs), Halladay should be fine. However, I’m slightly concerned about the lost two mph of velocity that Halladay is dealing with. His current K/9 rate of 6.17 is well below his career rate of 6.87, and he’s been over 7.50 each of the past four years. Could be a sample size thing, but it’s something to keep a close eye on since Halladay has thrown so many pitches the past six years (at least 220 innings each season). He’ll be fine of course, but we’ve likely seen the best he has to offer.

Tommy Hanson (-47, $231K)
Hanson’s K/9 rate of 8.29 is just off his 8.42 career rate, impressive considering that his fastball is still down two mph from his career rate. I’m also a big fan of his 47.3 percent ground ball rate, a significant improvement over his 41.1 career mark. There’s also the career best 15.1 line drive rate. Basically, batters aren’t making hard contact. Still, you’d be hard pressed to realize that unless you looked at his BABIP that is way too high at .330 (career .282). Would seem like a nice buy low opportunity, especially if the velocity returns.

Jonathon Niese (-101, $173K)
His first four outings were at least six innings before his three inning stinker last time out. Still, this is a guy with a solid K/9 rate (7.53) and BB/K (2.67) and he’s continuing to generate a lot of grounders with a 52.4 percent mark there. This is not an elite skill set by any means but pitchers with worse skills have enjoyed a lot of long-term success at the big league level.

Joe Saunders (-21, $338K)
Amazed I am at his start. He’s been so good that allowing two earned runs actually resulted in his salary going up. Through five starts he has produced a quality start each time leading to a 1.24 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. I know, pretty amazing. He has no chance of ending the year with a number in either category that that’s within shouting distance of where he is at, but that’s not going to take away from what has been a special start. Ride the wave baby, but be sure to have your life vest handy.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Starters

Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP

Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.

34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45

Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.

2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.

Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)

0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).

0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.

0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.

0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).

0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).

0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.

Some names that stood out, for good or bad.

0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.

0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.

0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.

0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).

0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 13, 2011

There are only a few weeks left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season, sniffle, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still championships to be won. Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Of these four, who to keep: Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda and Mike Trout? We start three outfielders and two utility.
– @TheRKG

Hosmer has had a spectacular rookie campaign hitting .286 with 17 homers, 69 RBI,. 56 runs and a surprising 10 steals. If he swipes 15 bases a season that will be an immense boost to his fantasy value at a position that sports, to be kind, few speed demons. However, a .285-25-90-80 season, while a terrific effort, leaves one well off the pace of the elite at the position, and that marks Hosmer’s keeper value in this setup as low.

Ackley has been as good as advertised. Hitting .290, he’s also taken his walks leading to a .367 OBP, and he’s shown solid extra base power as well for a second sacker (.452 SLG). If we take his production from 76 games this year and double it we’d end up with a second baseman hitting .290 with 12 homer, 68 RBI, 74 runs and eight steals. Those numbers would put him in contention for being a top-15 second baseman.

Pineda has been as good as advertised this year. Yes he’s had a bit of a rough go of late, but he’s still posted 171 Ks in 167 innings, has limited batters to a .208 batting average, and has a 1.08 WHIP in his 27 starts. It’s not his fault that he is 9-10 (thank his teammates anemic hitting). With a year under his belt next season, there’s no reason to expect any fall off in his production, and the team just might turn him loose for 200 innings as well.

Trout probably has more talent than anyone on this list, and that’s saying something. The uber-talented outfielder can’t legally buy a beer yet, but he has five homers, 15 RBI and 18 runs scored over just 100 at-bats. However, the Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos in the outfield, and if Kendrys Morales returns to action next year, that means the DH spot will be filled by him or Mark Trumbo. As you can see, there is still a chance that Trout will not open the year with the big league club so that he can gain a little more experience in the minors. Regardless, since this league starts only three outfielders, it’s nearly impossible to suggest keeping Trout.

I’m gonna pass on Trout – he’s not likely to be a top-30 outfielder next season. I’d pass on Hosmer –  I don’t think he’s going to be a top-10 first baseman either. So it’s Ackley or Pineda. Since I’m of the opinion that pitching is variable, and since a single thrown ball can end a pitchers season, I’d settle on Ackley who could be an up the middle star as soon as next year.

Keeping Roy Halladay & Matt Kemp. Can you pick two more from Yovani Gallardo, Michael Bourn, Brian McCann, John Axford, Ben Zobrist and David Ortiz?
– @JonMize1978

Having a better pitcher/hitter combo will be hard to find, so you’re in great shape there.

Gallardo has won 16 games with 183 Ks, a 3.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He’s inconsistent as all hell, but in the end, the production simply cannot be argued with (there are only four pitchers in the NL with 16 wins and 180 Ks – Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Halladay and Gallardo).

Bourn has 52 steals to lead baseball, his third straight season with at least 50 swipes. He’s also recorded at least 84 runs for the third straight season, and for the second time in three years it looks like he will hit at least .285 (he’s batting .301 right now). He’s an elite performer at what he does.

McCann is as consolid a hitter at the catchers’ position as you’re going to find. He’s hit 23 homers this year, his fourth straight season of at least 21 and the fifth time in six years he has done that. He’s also just four RBI away from a sixth straight season of 70 RBI. There isn’t a more consistent power bat in the game behind the dish.

Axford has been stupendous this year with a 2.16 ERA and 42 saves for the Brewers. His last blown save was on April 18th.

Zobrist qualifies in the outfield and at second base, and that is always a nice bonus. He’s also had a fantastic fantasy season as he’s hit .274 with 15 homers, 82 RBI, 88 runs and 17 steals. Mind you, this is the second time in three seasons that he will go .270-15-80-85-15. As of this writing only four players have done that twice the past three years – Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Zobrist.

Ortiz is having a fantastic season, he’s on the cusp of his first .300-30-100 season since 2007 (he is hitting .313 with 29 homers and 92 RBI). However, he’ll be 36 next year, has never been a paragon of physical fitness, and he hit .264, .238 and .270 the past three years. Throw in the fact that he only qualifies at DH, and he has limited value.

If I’m protecting four players, only one of them is going to be a pitcher, so Gallardo is out. As great as McCann is, I just don’t trust catchers to stay healthy, so I wouldn’t protect him either. Closers come and go each season, so Axford is out. I love Ortiz and his happy go lucky attitude, but I’m not keeping a DH. That leaves me with Bourn, a truly elite stolen base performer, and Zobrist who is a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for.

Colby Lewis on waivers – worth a pick up?
– @Robert6286

Colby has won 12 games for the second straight year though his performance has slipped a hair (his ERA has gone from 3.72 to 4.29 and his WHIP from 1.19 to 1.23). Four starts ago his ERA was 3.83 though, but he’s been hit hard over his last four outings leading to 19 earned runs in 21.1 innings for an 8.02 ERA. Normally I would say something like “it’s only four starts, things will even out,” and though I still believe that, we don’t have much time left this year for that stuff to even out. What that means is you need to manage your team differently than you do in May, and by that I mean you have to be looking at each step you take versus focusing on where the steps will take you.

Lewis is a solid hurler who has actually pitched slightly better in the second half of the season (4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than the first (4.38 and 1.24). Still, he is in the middle of a bad spell right now. His next scheduled start is the 17th in Seattle then the 24th at home against Seattle. You really can’t ask for two better match-ups. So do you start a pitcher with great match-ups, or do you look at his recent work on the bump and run for the hills? I’d let your place in the standings be the ultimate arbiter of that question, but I would hesitate to employ his services unless I was really in need of those innings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Worth Pointing Out

Beyonce is pregnant. Add her to the list of starlets who have jumped on the bandwagon of babies of late. Is it just me or does it seem like everyone but me, who is over 25 that is, has kids? I feel like an outsider when I walk down the street. Strollers, baby wipes, crying/screaming kids… I mean, who doesn’t want that?

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

Quick, what team does Robert Andino play for? Do you even know which position? Does it matter might be the more pertinent question? The answers are Orioles, second (72 games), shortstop (23 games) and third (12), and yes. Of course a player who qualifies at multiple spots means something, but it’s what he is doing on offense right now that is so exciting. OK, I might be a tad bit optimistic by making it seem like he is excelling, but he has stolen seven bases while scoring 23 runs over his last 40 games. It ain’t great production, but if you’re in an AL-only league, or a really deep mixed league that uses middle and corner infielders, you should be aware of who he is.

Yovani Gallardo is a confounding player to own, there’s no two ways around that. Sometimes he excels at shutting down the opponent. At other points, he’s a disaster. Still, the guy can be dominating when he’s in the groove, and boy is in he the groove right now. Over his last eight starts Gallardo is 5-2. However, he’s been even better than that wonderful record would indicate with a 1.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and, most importantly, he’s just not walking anyone leading to an amazing 6.50 K/BB ratio. All told he is one of only four NL hurlers who has 15 wins, 150 Ks, a 3.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. The others are Ian Kennedy, Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay.

Carlos Gonzalez leads baseball with 30 RBI in 21 games in August. His total is one more than that of Curtis Granderson who leads the AL. Who leads baseball in homers in the month? How about Granderson, Dan Uggla and Evan Longoria who all have 10 long balls, one more than Joey Votto and CarGo have. In terms of runs scored, Granderson leads that pack as well with 27 runs in 25 games, three more than Ryan Braun who leads the NL and four more than Corey Hart who is second in the NL.

Derek Jeter injured his knee when he fouled a ball off it over the weekend. He’s likely to miss a few days with the injury. The setback comes at an awful time for Jeter as he has pushed his season long average up to .296. How has he done that? Jeter is hitting .344 over his last 39 games and over his last 23 games he’s been as good as just about any hitter in baseball posting a .398 batting average in August. The only batters with a better average in the month are Aramis Ramirez (.409) and Alex Avila (.400).

Joe Mauer is out of the Twins’ lineup Monday, the fifth straight game he has missed. This is yet another example of why I tell people all the time to avoid spending an early draft pick on a catcher – they are just so injury prone. Mauer is still hitting a passable .287, though that is light years from his .324 career mark, and he has all of one home run making him less valuable that a guy like Ryan Hanigan who is hitting .270 with six homers and four more RBI (29 to 25). Think back to draft day – was Hanigan even drafted? Even if he was, it was likely 20 rounds after Mauer went off the board.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 28, 2011

(1) Yovani Gallardo is struggling. Is it time to panic?

(2) Add Joe Mauer to the list of injured players I was right about (Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau)

(3) What’s wrong with Andrew McCutchen?

(4) Carlos Carrasco (elbow) to DL. Is Alex White worth a pickup?

(5) Nick Swisher 0-for-18, Carlos Lee 0-for-15. For more on Swisher see his 2011 Player Profile.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 1, 2010

(1) Josh Hamilton out of lineup with knee injury.

(2) Alex Rodriguez likely to return on Sunday.

(3) Ray’s call up Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings.

(4) Ian Kinsler (groin), Lance Berkman (knee) back off DL.

(5) Yovani Gallardo says he is OK despite awful results.

(6) Jason Kendall needs shoulder surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.

Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town

Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS

Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.

Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well

Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.

On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).

Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.

2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB

If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.

Who Am I?

I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.

I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.

I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.

I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.

Any idea who I might be?

No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?

I pitch for the Dodgers.

I’ve been in the United States for three years.

My name is Hiroki Kuroda.

Will someone please show me some respect?

Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)

By Ray Flowers