2012 Positional Review – Shortstop

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2012 SHORTSTOP Top-10

1 Troy Tulowitzki
2 Jose Reyes
3 Hanley Ramirez
4 Elvis Andrus
5 Starlin Castro
6 Jimmy Rollins
7 Derek Jeter
8 Alexei Ramirez
9 Asdrubal Cabrera
10 Yunel Escobar

Tulowitzki appeared in 47 games, his first season of less than 101 in six years. Over the previous five seasons he average 134 games a campaign, meaning he has averaged missing a month a season before 2012. The production is amazing, but the risk simply too high to overlook.

Reyes came on in the second half and as a result his first season in Miami was right where it should have been as he posted a fantasy line of .287-11-57-86-40. Note the last time he stole 50 bases was 2008.

Ramirez hit 24 homers with 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 runs. Given that he also qualified at third base he was a strong play in 2012. Still, what happened to the perennial .300 hitter? Over his last 942 at-bats he has hit .252 with a poor .326 OBP (he batted .319 from 2007-10).

Andrus scored 85 runs for the third straight year while reaching career bests in doubles (31), triples (nine), RBIs (62), batting average (.286), OBP (.349) and SLG (.378). The only downer was a four year low of 21 steals, this after 3-straight seasons of at least 32 thefts.

Castro is just 22 years old, and he’s has been an impressive performer in his young career hitting .297. He’s also stolen 22 and 25 bases the past two years while scoring an average of 85 runs the past two campaigns. He also saw his homers (14) and RBIs (78) reach career bests in his third season. The guy’s attitude still makes me all kind of nervous though.

Rollins went 20/20 this year… from June 1st to the end of the season. That might be the most amazing number you will read in any of the position reviews. On the season he had 23 homers, 30 steals, 102 runs scored and 68 RBIs in yet another “Rollins-like” effort.

Jeter was just about used up according to most. At least I didn’t think that. Jeter went out and had 216 hits, the most in baseball, as he scored 99 times, hit 15 homers and knocked in 58 runners. He stole only nine bases, his first season of single digits ever, but he was once again an elite at the position.

Ramirez is as steady as pretty much any player in the game. He’s not elite at anything unfortunately, but always productive. He stole a career best 20 bases while driving in 73 runners, the second best mark of his career. However, he also hit only .265 with nine homers and 59 runs scored. At least he didn’t kill you.

From Cabrera’s Player Profile before the season. “Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average… but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.” Cabrera hit .270, just three points off 2011, and he fell one bag short of my prediction with nine thefts. However, his HR total fell from 25 to 16, his RBI total from 92 to 68 and his SLG mark from .460 to .423.

Escobar hit .288-10-60-71 in 2008. In 2009 he went .299-14-76-89. In 2010 he dipped to .256-4-35-60. In 2011 he rebounded and hit .290-11-48-77. What did he do in 2012? Totally unexpected he reverted to his 2010 form with an awful season (.253-9-51-58).

Hit: Derek Jeter

Miss: Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond (#16)
I knew Diamond could be something, but I had no idea he would be an absolute monster as one of the elites at the position (.292-25-73-72-21).

By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

Last night, live on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we had another hosts draft in which I got to pit my wits against some of the industry leaders in a 12 team, mixed league snake draft. Let’s see how I did.  The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted in the fantasy baseball draft.

C: Kurt Suzuki (16), John Buck (26)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (4)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
MI/CI: Yunel Escobar (18), Billy Butler (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (1), Carl Crawford (5), Shane Victorino (6), Brett Gardner (8), Carlos Lee (20)
UT: Mark Reynolds (11)

SP: James Shields (9), Ricky Romero (10), Brandon Morrow (13), Max Scherzer (15)

RP: Sergio Santos (14), Kenley Jansen (17), Brett Myers (19), Matt Capps (21), Aroldis Chapman (23)

BENCH: Denard Span (22), Ricky Nolasco (24), Erik Bedard (25), Ian Stewart (27), Brian Roberts (28)

* I wanted to roster Nick Hundley or Chris Iannetta as my second catcher, but both were taken the round I was going to add them. I then thought I’d take Carlos Ruiz, but he too was taken so I just waited to add Buck. If you can fill bench spots before you have to fill your starting lineup, you might consider a similar strategy.

* I was certainly tempted to take Joey Votto with my first pick, but two things played into my choice of CarGo. (1) I like the five category skills of Gonzalez a wee bit better. (2) Yahoo, which is the service we held the draft on, pretty much qualifies everyone in the game as a first or third baseman, so I felt comfortable passing on the elite first baseman.

* Speaking of the corners, look at the lineup I rostered. Youkilis can play first or third, ditto with Reynolds, an even Butler qualifies at first in this set up too (so does Lee). People might look at Butler in the 7th round and think that’s too early to take him, but as a first base eligible player he’s of real interest. To compare, Eric Hosmer hit .293 with 19 homers and 78 RBI last year in 523 at-bats while Butler hit .291 with 19 homers and 95 RBI in 597 at-bats. Plus, Butler is a rock of consistency.

* Jeter is old, but I don’t doubt that he’ll hit at least .280 with 15 steals and 80 runs scored – at a minimum. Escobar in the 18th round was also a solid add at middle infielder. Speaking of middle infielders, why in the hell did I take Brian Roberts in the 28th round? Did my computer do on auto-draft? Did I drink too many Paradise Punch’s and think it was 2007? You know how I always preach about knowing your league rules? This is a perfect example. Roberts will start the year on the DL, so if he’s taking up a bench spot in a 12 team mixed league it’s pretty tough to justify his inclusion on your roster. However, this league has DL spots. I drafted Roberts, immediately placed him on the DL after the draft (I was able to add Chad Billingsley). In essence, I’ll get a player I was targeting with my last pick in the draft anyway, an I’ll have Roberts for free cause he isn’t impacting my active roster. If/when Roberts plays, he’ll be effective. It’s just a matter of when that will occur.

* I waited on pitching, but so did everyone else to a certain degree. That resulted in a large number of solid starting pitchers being available late (Nolasco, Bedard types). However, people went hot and heavy on relievers, so I just waited that out. In the end, I’ve got three closers – Santos, Myers, Capps – though I really only like the first one. Still, saves are saves, so I’ll pay the price in the ratio cats to get them from Capps and Myers. I also added Chapman on the off chance that the Reds decide to give him some 9th inning work which is certainly possible (especially after Dusty Baker said the other day that he isn’t locked into using Sean Marshall exclusively in the 9th). As for my starters, see what I say about waiting on arms? Shields, Romero, Morrow and Scherzer all have the talent to win 15 games with at least 175 Ks. I wanted to take Morrow in the 11th but showed patience and got him two rounds later. I also wanted Scherzer in the 13th but was able to get him two round later as well.

So there is the squad. What do you think? Oh, by the way, for the full draft results click on the link to SiriusXM Experts Draft.

To sign up for fantasy baseball, give Fleaflicker a look.

By Ray Flowers

How Did I Do?

As human beings we all look for affirmation. Even those of us that don’t really care can’t help but think to ourselves at times ‘should I wear these pants?’ or ‘I wonder if he really likes me or not?’ It’s human nature. However, it’s gotten totally out of control in the fantasy game. Here is what I mean.

I get, an I’m not exaggerating, at least 100 emails/calls/comments/tweets a day that all start out the same way. “I had my draft last night and I was wondering if you could tell me how I did?” There are so many problems with this line of thought that I felt the need to let it all out (I’m about ready to be my cantankerous best, as they say on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio ‘Ray is about ready to turn heel,’ so you might want to have a belt of booze before you continue reading).

(1) Asking me how you did AFTER your draft is pointless. It’s too late. The time to worry about your team is BEFORE you draft. Once the die has been cast on your team there’s only so much you can do to change it. Inevitably I get this question about ‘how did I do?’ an I send a reply. What then happens is a series of emails, rarely is it just one mind you, in which a handful of potential moves are brought up. Not to be rude, but I just don’t have the time to answer 125 emails a day. The easiest way to avoid this situation is to pick up a copy of my Baseball Guys 2012 Draft Guide (you can also follow me on Twitter where I answer questions all day and night). There are over 600 players ranked in that Guide so you know just how I think players should be evaluated. This leads to…

(2) Why are you asking me if you should drop Rafael Furcal to pick up Yunel Escobar? Clearly you haven’t picked up a copy of the Baseball Guys Draft Guide where Escobar is ranked 12 spots ahead of Furcal. I’d say a good 50 percent of the questions I get from people after drafts would be answered if they just employed the strategies and rankings that can be found in the Guide. There’s a reason I spent all the time needed to craft the 55 page PDF document, and why I continue to update it on a daily basis. If you’re going to use me a source for fantasy sports knowledge, how about trusting my rankings of players?

(3) Why are you looking to trade players three hours after your draft was completed? We’ve all been in leagues with people who have a disease that pushes them to constantly monkey around with their lineups either through trades, waiver-wire additions or by mixing and matching their lineup on a daily basis. Games haven’t even started yet and you’re already going to start messing around with your lineup? Really? That seems pretty harsh to me. Remember – most of the time what we do in fantasy sports is reactionary. You bench Yunel Escobar only after you notice he has hit .188 for the past 10 games. The problem with that is that he’ll then go out and produce seven hits in his next three games. Noticing this “hot trend,” you then activate him yet again. However, he then goes 1-for-13. Given this example you’ve basically had Escobar in your lineup hitting .145. If you had never messed around with the lineup that average would have been .250. Exercise patience, especially when games haven’t even been played yet.

(4) For goodness sakes people, why are we turning fantasy baseball into fantasy football? One of the most beautiful aspects of fantasy baseball is that 5×5 scoring accounts for about 90 percent of leagues. Moving to more involved leagues, 6×6 or 7×7 or even larger is fine with me, but keep the format the same. By that I mean starting lineups should include:

14 hitters: C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT
9 pitcher: Any mix of starters and relievers

You can jimmy-jack around with the scoring categories if you’d like, but keep the starting lineup standard. Don’t do a league with only five pitchers, or one with one catcher, or one that starts only three outfielders. Just don’t.

By the way, auctions should be $260. Not $280, not $300, but $260.

(5) Speaking of roster sizes, let me address league sizes. I realize that 10-team leagues are “standard” for some of the biggest purveyors of fantasy sports, but I’m here to tell you that’s a total joke. I do leagues where there are 12 teams in an AL-only league and 13 teams for NL-only setups. If you’re doing a 10-team mixed league the player pool penetration is so shallow it’s nearly a waste of time. For goodness sakes, if you’re going to do a 10-team league you had better at least have 14 hitters and nine pitchers in your starting lineup. If you don’t, please don’t waste my time asking me to analyze your team. If your club starts 10 hitters and seven pitchers doesn’t look like an All-Star squad in a 10-team league you need to quit playing fantasy baseball.

(6) If you are going to send me a question to rank your team, realizing you are taking your life in your own hands after the above rambling posting, please at least tell me how many teams are in your league and how many players are in your starting lineup. If you start eight hitters or 14 kind of makes a big difference.

Now that I’ve got that off my chest, you can return to your normally scheduled program.

If you’re looking to do a fantasy league this year, why not give Fleaflicker a try?

By Ray Flowers

Comments: Greatest Hits

At the bottom of all my articles readers are encouraged to leave their thoughts on my work, to ask questions, or just to blow off some steam. I have to admit that there are some pretty good queries thrown up there at times. Today, I’ve compiled some of those thoughts into an article since I doubt most of you spend much time reading my responses unless they are to your own questions.

Jake – Is there any sort of format that you might suggest that combines a season long roto format along with some type of playoff at the end of the season?

BBGuys - Your issue of people stopping to care late in the year is common. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good answer on how to stop this. Reason being is this – playoffs take skill out of the mix and go more with luck. Do you want to give someone a “win” in a playoff week because they picked up Brandon Crawford and he had a better week than Troy Tulowitzki? Do you want to reward a 2-start James McDonald over a one start Roy Halladay? When you break the game down into playoff segments the sample size shrinks, and with it the luck factor goes up. To me, we are best served rewarding year long excellence versus weekly luck.

Mike – As much as I love Evan Longoria this year, were you tempted with Jacoby Ellsbury still available? For him to fall to #12 seems shocking to me.

*** This questions refers to The FSTA Draft that was held in Vegas during which I chose Longoria #10 overall instead of Ellsbury. Over at Fleaflicker they also have Longoria going off the board after Ellsbury.

BBGuys - Here’s the deal. Only 37.5% all all the top-15 selections the last eight years have returned top-15 production (that’s from the Baseball Forecaster). In essence, we all spend way too much time worry about our first round pick when they are more likely to fail to live up to expectations than to meet or exceed them. Second, Ellsbury’s game was his speed, and after averaging 60 SB his last two healthy seasons he saw his steal total fail to hit 40 last year. That’s a big concern for me. Third, never in his life did Ellsbury show 30 HR power. Remember, he had 20 homers in his first 349 games. Players just don’t hold on to gains like the one he showed last season. Sure Kirby Puckett and Jose Bautista did, but you get my point. I just can’t see Ellsbury holding on to his 17 percent HR/F rate. I also don’t think he’s a .320 hitter. If he goes .285-20-75-100-40 is he a first round pick? You could certainly argue that persuasively, but I don’t know if that would make him much different than Andrew McCutchen.

Marc in CO – In addition to waiting on a 1B, you also waited to pick a SS (Yunel Escobar in the 13th). Can you give us your thoughts on him in specific and the shortstop position in general in terms of draft strategy?

BBGuys - I waited on the shortstop because that’s how the draft played out. Also, since I had two second basemen, I didn’t need to worry about my MI spot, so it was as much a combination of factors as anything else. As for Escobar, I like what he brings. Not much upside power wise, he hits everything into the ground, an obviously he’s not a speed demon, but his skill set is stable. Take out 2010 and you have three nearly identical seasons in 2008-09, 2011. I’ll take .290-10-60-75-5 from my SS and be pretty happy with it since in reality he is my MI behind Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia.

Rick – Are you worried about the suspension of Ryan Braun? Do you think it will be the same old same old when he returns? Also now that this is out here are you worried that his numbers will fall off a cliff like Arod?

BBGuys – I’m not worried about Braun at all. Just expect 2/3 of his normal production for 2012 and you should be fine (just check out his rookie numbers to see how amazing he can be in limited playing time). MLB has done testing for years, so clearly we have to assume that Braun hasn’t been doing something illegal for a long time. In fact, I’m still not convinced that he took “steroids.”  Regardless, Braun is 28 this year – still very young. Arod is 36. Arod’s decline had nothing to do with getting of the juice, he was simply experience a slow down with age. Remember, Arod had 54 homers, 156 RBIs and a 1.067 OPS in 2007 – he used steroids in 2001-03.

Wesley – Hey Ray. What do you think of Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez? I feel they’re going to be good values and bounce back guys.

BBGuys - Two different stories. CarGo hit .295, went 20/20, and scored/knocked in 90 runs last year. There’s not much to “bounce back” from there. If he had played another 20 games we’d be talking about a .300-30-100-100-20 season. Expecting more than that is asking too much.

Crawford on the other hand is a prime bounce back candidate. according to Fleaflicker’s numbers, Crawford is being drafted inside the top-70 overall.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Shortstop

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2011 SHORTSTOP Top-10
1 Hanley Ramirez
2 Troy Tulowitzki
3 Jimmy Rollins
4 Jose Reyes
5 Derek Jeter
6 Alexei Ramirez
7 Stephen Drew
8 Elvis Andrus
9 Yunel Escobar
10 Rafael Furcal

Ramirez had a four year run going of hitting at least .300 with 21 homers, 67 RBI, 92 runs and 27 steals. He didn’t reach a single one of those numbers in 2011 (.243-10-45-55-20). He eventually had surgery on his injured shoulder, and the hope is that he will be ready for the start of the 2012 season.

Tulowitzki hit 30 homers and powered a career best 105 runners across the plate as he hit .302 and posted a third straight OPS of over .900 at .916. However, he also scored a three year low with 81 runs, and he failed to record double-digit steals for the first time in three years with nine.

Rollins rebounded from an injury induced slump in 2010, but the numbers were still far from the elite totals that he had posted in the past (.268-16-63-87-30). At 32 years old he can still be a mighty productive player, but keep your expectations in check when drafting him in 2012.

Reyes wants someone to show him the money. He went out and hit .337, the best mark in the NL, and he scored 101 runs for the Metropolitans. That run scored mark was impressive given that he appeared in only 126 games, but he stole “only” 39 bags, a disappointing total for a guy who stole at least 56 bases each year from 2005-2008.

Jeter hit six homers, the first time he ever failed to go deep 10 times, and he also scored a career worst 84 runs. On the positive tip he produced 61 RBI, an 8th straight year of at least that number, an a late run at the dish resulted in him hitting .297 on the year.

Ramirez always seems to be slumping, but in the end there are few more productive, and consistent, performers at the position. For the fourth time in four years he hit 15 homers with 68 RBI, and he scored 81 runs, swiped seven bags, and hit a passable .269.

Drew fractured his right ankle and as a result suited up for just 86 games. He was productive when on the field with five homers, 45 RBI and 44 runs scored, but he simply didn’t play enough to be worthy of much of anything this season.

Andrus slightly improved his average up to .279, the same trick he pulled off with his OBP of .347 (both three year bests). Andrus also posted 3-years bests in runs (96), hits (164), doubles (27), RBI (60) and steals (37).

Escobar had a lost 2010 season causing many to forget, or at least overlook, him on draft day. I wasn’t one of those who walked by without looking. Escobar ended up producing a season that fell right in line with his 2008-09 efforts as he hit .290 with 11 homers, 48 RBI, 77 runs scored an a .782 OPS for the Blue Jays.

Furcal had yet another injury filled an unproductive season split between the Dodgers and the Cardinals hitting just .231 with eight homers, 28 RBI, 44 runs and nine steals in just 87 games. Per game he was  productive in the counting categories, but for a second straight year the 34 year old Furcal failed to appear in 100 games.

Hit: Yunel Escobar #9

Bust: Rafael; Furcal #10
It’s too easy to list Hanley Ramirez, and since we all know how pathetic he was, it doesn’t serve much purpose to blast him here again. We all know he was the biggest bust in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Random Musings

Bryce Harper walks on water, saves babies from sunburn with a glance that causes the sun to recede, and never makes an out. Never. Well, at least that’s what some people seem to think. The uber-prospect, judged by many to be the best talent in baseball in the minors despite being just 18 years old, simply killed it at Single-A ball this year. He may have made some outs, in fact he made a ton, but overall he was a dynamic option hitting .318 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 49 runs and 19 steals in just 72 games. The groundswell was that he was going to ascend all the way to the majors this season (I for one have remained steadfast in my belief that he won’t be a full-time player for the Nationals until at least June of next season. At least.). In nine games at Double-A it’s all gone wrong for Harper (he skipped High-A). It’s only been nine games so there is zero reason to panic, but he has hit .194 with two runs and two RBI’s. The game just isn’t that easy folks. Harper will figure it out in due time and start mashing again, nothing will stop him from doing that, but be realistic with the kid and his progress. Nothing happens overnight.

Jeff Keppinger was dealt from the Astros to the Giants. For my thoughts on the deal see Giants Deal for Keppinger.

Speaking of the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is out of the lineup Wednesday after tweaking his quad on Tuesday. The issue doesn’t appear to be serious, but the club is just playing it safe with their most important hitter. And hit Sandoval has done lately. Since returning from surgery on his wrist, Sandoval has appeared in 32 games. He’s had a hit in 30 of those contests on his way to racking up a .316 average. Guess what he’s hitting on the year? How about .315. For his career, four at-bats short of 1,500, Sandoval is hitting .306.

Placido Polanco will have an epidural on Thursday as he continues to waste away on the DL because of a bugling disk in his back. After being an MVP in April (.398 with 19 RBI) Polanco has resembled a washed up middle infielder who is barely hanging on hitting just .216 with 20 RBI over 57 games.

If you’re looking for a good matchup on the hill, it will be tough to beat Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw today. Lincecum enters the day with a 2.99 ERA and 9.67 K/9 rate while Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA and 10.13 K/9 mark. There may not be a better lefty-rigthty matchup at any point this season, so watch these two NL West aces face-off today if you get the chance.

The last 28 days did you know…

Aramis Ramirez has hit 12 homers with 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. He’s been the best hitter in baseball in that time. Jose Bautista isn’t far behind with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored.

Emilio Bonifacio has hit .357 with 13 steals. You do know he has no chance of sustaining even 80 percent of that level of production moving forward, right?

Nick Markakis has hit .381. Moreover, the Orioles’ outfielder has hit a robust .347 over his last 41 games to raise his season long average to .293.

Curtis Granderson has hit only .240 but he leads the AL with 22 runs in that time. Granderson also has 19 walks, tied with Ben Zobrist for the most in baseball. Zobrist has a .429 OBP, Granderson .396. Both those numbers are wonderful, but amongst every day players those totals pale in comparison to the .477 mark of Yunel Escobar.

Jose Reyes has only 48 at-bats because of his leg injury, but he hasn’t picked up a single strikeout. Reyes also has an amazing .519 OBP.

Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 14, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to some questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I’m solid in the power categories but need steals and runs. Should I trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury?
– @mushinske

Clearly you’ve got a deal here that would meet your needs.

Ellsbury has been his old dynamic force this season as his body is finally healthy. Jacoby has easily been a top-10 overall performer given his 5×5 line (.318-7-33-49-24), pretty much the same situation that existed in his last two healthy seasons of 2008 and 2009 (his 2011 totals are projections).

2008: .280-9-47-98-50
2009: .301-8-60-94-70
2011: .318-17-83-124-60

He won’t hit 17 homers this season, it’s not likely at least given that his current HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent (the mark was 7.0 and 4.6 percent in 2008-09). He’s also striking out more than ever before with a 17.0 percent whiff rate (career 13.6 percent) and it’s hard to fathom that he will be able to keep up his current LD-rate (25.5 percent) and BABIP (.362). Still, as long as he stays healthy it’s not difficult at all to envision him matching his level of performance from 2008-09.

Howard is well on his way to another 30 homer, 100 RBI season with 13 bombs and 53 RBI in 65 games. Howard has gone 30-100 each of this five full seasons in the big leagues, so it doesn’t take much analysis to suggest another such season appears to be in the cards. On the negative tip though, Howard has 11 steals in his career and hasn’t hit .280 since 2006. In the land of titans, that being the first base position, Howard is always a fine option, but his production doesn’t stand out if he is hitting 35 homers with 120 RBI versus the level of production he offered from from 2006-09 (4-straight years of 45-136).

Given your needs I give you my blessing to consummate this deal, though I wont be giving you a 20.5 carat ring like Kris Humphries did when he popped the question to Kim Kardashian.

Is there any way I should drop Yunel Escobar for J.J. Hardy who’s been heating up lately?
– @mattromeo

Escobar has battled the injury monster a couple of times this year, but he’s appeared in 61 of 66 games for the Blue Jays as he has re-established himself as a bona fide big league hitter after last years el floppo (.256-4-35). He’s already hit more homers this season than last, he has seven, and his total of 24 RBI is just 11 behind his putrid total from last season. Escobar was hitting .300 a few weeks back but he’s slumped to .129 in 31 June at-bats. Still, he’s third at the position with a .360 OBP and his 38 runs place him sixth, and he’s on pace (I know how everyone loves “pace” talk) to end the year with a line that looks pretty similar to what he has done in the past.

2008: .288-10-60-71-2
2009: .299-14-76-89-5
2011: .277-17-58-93-5

Escobar’s currently drawing more walks than ever before (11.4 BB-rate vs. career 9.6 percent), and his line drive rate is a mere 12.8 percent (career 18.1), so it would seem very reasonable for you to expect Escobar to continue along at his current rate of production, especially when he starts lashing a few more line drives.

Hardy hit 50 homers and posted 154 RBI in 2007-08 as one of the most powerful shortstops in the game (he was second at the position in homers and third in RBI). However, a variety of injures hit him the past two seasons as he averaged just 108 games player per year. Over those 216 games he hit just 17 homers while knocking in 85 runs as his production fell off the proverbial map. Injuries have once again limited him this season, he’s appeared in just 36 games, but the old power stroke is back as he has six homers and 19 RBI.

I don’t question the skills with Hardy. His BB/K rate, line drive rate, HR/F, BABIP — all of that is pretty standard fair for him when you compare his current numbers to his career rates. He is hitting a few more fly balls and a few less grounders which has helped aid the power output, but the concern over his health is what eats at me.

I’d keep Escobar. I have more faith in his ability to stay on the field than the oft-injured Hardy.

Scott Baker or Jordan Zimmerman going forward?
– @cstarlodi

It’s like everyone is all of a sudden coming to the conclusion that these two guys are both pretty good hurlers. In March when I released my Top-100 Starting Pitchers I had Baker at 53 and Zimmerman at 54. It may not seem like much now, but back then I got a lot of push back on those rankings. Obviously I’m not surprised that they have had success this season.

I get daily question about Baker, a fact I mentioned this in a piece yesterday titled Pointing Out the Obvious, and I’m not sure why that is. Baker is currently sporting a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, solid numbers but still not career bests (he had a 3.45 ERA in 2008 and in 2008-09 his WHIP was 1.18 and 1.19). He is sporting a career best 8.39 K/9 mark, a batter plus over his career rate (7.19), and though he’s never posted a mark over eight before, he does have the skill to sustain this level. He is walking more batters than ever before  (2.47 per nine), but his K/BB ratio is 3.39, just off his 3.37 career rate, because of the strikeout boost. The rest of his pitching line is pretty standard stuff for him which means solid production all-around.

Zimmerman started a bit slowly, especially in the strikeout column, but he has really turned things on his last eight outings during which time he has 47 Ks in 51.2 innings. With only 11 walks in that time his K/BB ratio since the start of May is an excellent 4.27, and check out his ratios – 2.26 ERA an a 0.99 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. His fly ball rate is a bit elevated this season though he’s been able to offset that fact with his HR/FB rate of 2.9 percent. He’s not likely to keep that up given that his career mark is right on the big league average at 9.5 percent, so that ERA could climb a bit, but this is a stable/strong skill set.

So who would I prefer to have on my roster? I’m going to suggest going with the veteran in Baker. Not only do we have a bit more of a track record with him, we also don’t have to worry about his innings pitched total being capped later in the year, a fact that any Zimmerman owner will have to deal with as the Nationals try to limit the workload on their young start who is returning from Tommy John surgery.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April7, 2011

(1) Lastings Milledge released by the White Sox. Will he ever reach his potential?

(2) Edinson Volquez struggling to find the strike zone – again.

(3) Logan Morrison has a bright future, but what is his value this season?

(4) Michael Bourn tweaks groin. Does that mean he’ll stop running?

(5) Yunel Escobar has head injury. Hopefully it’s minor after his hot start.

(6) Vlad Guerrero – he can still hit despite his slow start.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 2, 2011

I’m in a 12 man keeper league, head-to-head points. My options are Ubaldo Jimenez in the 8th or Mat Latos in the 16th. I know Jimenez is a pretty good deal in the eighth, but does the value of Latos eight rounds later make him the guy to protect even though he’s not as proven as Jimenez?
– Travis, Austin, Texas

The old keeper conundrum facing so many people at this time of year. Do you go with the more valuable fantasy performer or the better value? First off, let’s attack the idea of which pitcher is more valuable.

Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 8.37 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, .209 BAA in 221.2 IP
M. Latos: 14-10, 2.92 ERA, 9.21 K/9, 3.78 K/BB, 1.08 WHIP, .217 BAAA in 184.2 IP

If we look solely at last seasons numbers, I’d be hard pressed to say that Jimenez was clearly the better pitcher. In fact, if we remove the W-L record from the discussion, it certainly appears that Latos pitched slightly better than Jimenez. Therefore, if that was all the data we had at our disposal it would seem to be a no brainer to keep Latos since his draft day cost would be eight rounds cheaper.

What about the place each hurler pitches? While Coors Field is no longer the launching pad it once was since the introduction of the humidor, it’s still a park that heavily favors offense. According to Bill James’ Park Indices, Coors was the best park in the NL in 2010 to score a run or hit a home run. Flip the situation over to Petco Park in San Diego where Latos pitches, and it’s almost like we are talking another language. Petco was the second worst park in the NL in terms of runs and it was 12th in homers in the NL. Given that, the advantage clearly goes to Latos – despite the fact that Jimenez and his “heavy” fastball has always performed well at home (in 2010 he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 96 Ks in 101.2 innings in Coors).

What about their health, a massive concern with hurlers (consider the case of Adam Wainwright)? We all know that any pitch can send a hurler to the doctor’s office, but if we are to simply consider the data with these two hurlers we’d have to conclude that Jimenez is the “safer” hurler. Ubaldo has thrown at least 198.2 innings each of the past three years, something only four other NL hurlers have been able to do (Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, Ryan Dempster and Tim Lincecum). As for Latos, as I related in The Verducci Effect, he has put forth two major innings pitched increases the past two years which is a  legitimate concern. He also tanked miserably at the end of last season (1-5, 5.84 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over his last seven starts), perhaps a sign he was worn out. Early reports this year are very positive however, and for what it’s worth, Latos is a pretty big kid (6’6, 225 lbs.) so maybe he’ll be just fine.

If I was sitting down at a draft table looking to roster hurlers in a re-draft league, I’d have Jimenez ranked ahead of Latos. At the same time, it would be as tough a decision as it would be deciding between whether I wanted Brooklyn Decker or Irina Shayk to be in my dreams tonight. Given the massive eight round advantage you pick up in your keeper format Travis with holding on to Latos, I think it’s a no brainer that you roster the hurler from the Padres.

What are your thoughts on Yunel Escobar at shortstop for the Blue Jays. Is he going to return to being productive with Toronto?
– Joseph, Sierra Vista, Arizona

Escobar was awful last season, kind of like that rancid peach you think you can still eat if you work your way around the bad parts, only to find out you were dead wrong. In 497 at-bats Yunel hit .256 with four homers, 35 RBI and a .655 OPS. It wouldn’t take much for him to improve on that effort, but I think there is much more to be mined here than slight improvement. Let me drop some knowledge on you as people seem to have forgotten just how good Yunel already has been.

In 2008, Escobar hit .288 with 10 homers, 60 RBI, 71 runs and two steals. In standard 5×5 scoring that left him as the 143rd best overall hitter and the 12th most productive shortstop.

In 2009 Escobar hit .299 with 14 homers, 76 RBI, 89 runs scored and five steals. That 5×5 fantasy effort left him as the 75th best fantasy hitter in the game, and the 7th best shortstop.

It’s not like Escobar has to do anything other than return to “normal” to return a massive amount of value given that last years down effort has relegated him to a current ADP mark of about 375.

Is there reason, other than his previously strong performances, to think he will return to relevance this season? Of course.

(1) Escobar is only 29 years old, hardly an age when people lose “it.”

(2) Toronto’s park is a solid one for offense as it was above average in 2011 in batting average, runs and hits, while it was the third best park to go deep in according to Park Indices in the AL.

(3) Escobar really wasn’t that bad last year – honest. Take a look.

2010: 9.9 BB-rate, 11.5 K-rate, 0.98 BB/K
Career: 9.4 BB-rate, 12.1 K-rate, 0.88 BB/K
Huh is right. He was actually better than normal in these three categories.

2010: 1.89 GB/FB, 18.0 LD-rate
Career: 2.02 GB/FB, 18.8 LD-rate
Huh again. His ground ball, fly ball and line drive rates were almost a dead on match for his career levels. So why was he so bad last year?

2010: 3.3 HR/F, .282 BABIP, .251 average vs. righties
Career: 7.6 HR/F, .314 BABIP, .293 average vs. righties
Escobar isn’t ever going to be a power hitter, he hits too many balls on the ground, but he should be able to  reach double-digit homers when his HR/F normalizes. You also have to think that he was a bit unlucky last year with a .032 point dip in his BABIP given that his G/F/L rates were the same as “normal.” It’s also odd to see his batting average drop by more than .040 points against righties. You have to figure that number will rebound.

Escobar will come cheap on draft day, and the numbers seem to indicate that a return to at least his 2008 level is immanently possible.

I’m in an auction draft for the first time, and I’m getting pretty nervous. Any advice for a newbie to the format?
– Eric, Los Angeles

Eric, welcome to the world of auctions. Once you get the fever for doing them it’s often hard to go back to traditional snake drafts because of the slower pace and the inability to have the same level of control over the players you can choose for your roster. Here are some general tips.

1 – Make sure you have a plan, understand the rules, and have a working knowledge of the player pool. You will not have time to check a magazine to find out if David DeJesus can help you in the steals department, you will have to know that information.

2- In terms of what strategy to employ, I wrote a simple introduction to the auction format in How to Do an Auction Draft. You’ll find a basic review of the simplest ways to attack an auction there.

3- Do some mock auctions if you can. I get made fun of all the time for doing mock drafts by my friends, but they are an invaluable tool if you ask me.

4- I’d also suggest listening in on how the “experts” do it. This Saturday and Sunday, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, the LABR auction drafts for the AL and NL will be carried live (for programming information see SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio). It can’t hurt to hear how the experts work their way through an auction.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s  minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.