FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 Million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 13 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

And now, a video giving some thoughts on the matchups of the day, both good and bad. Oh, and you know I have to comment on the Carlos Quentin charging the mound on Zack Greinke…

NOTE: In the video I say David Murphy, should be DANIEL Murphy as the great play tonight.

NOTE II: Zack Greinke will undergo surgery on his clavicle. Word is now that he will miss eight weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 11

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. Tyler Flowers

Wieters is only 1-for-12 against Alfredo Aceves in his career, a bad looking matchup on the surface. However he has hit .292 in 233 at-bats against the Red Sox, and 12 at-bats isn’t a huge amount to draw on.

Flowers faces Dan Haren, he of the 32 homers allowed in his last 31 starts. Flowers has 20+ homer power and has two bombs in 22 at-bats this season. He has gone 10 at-bats without a hit though.

FIRST BASE
1. Brandon Moss
2. Kendrys Morales

Moss has two homers and nine RBIs the past two days, and he’s also registered 10 hits in his last 17 at-bats (.588). Doesn’t matter who is on the hill right now (it’s Jason Vargas who he has one hit in three at-bats against).

Morales has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats including three doubles and a home run as he has knocked in five runs. He faces Justin Grimm, he of the 14 career big league innings during which time he has allowed 14 runs.

SECOND BASE
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Dustin Pedroia

Keppinger will be facing the struggling Dan Haren whom he has eight hits against in 16 career ABs including a big fly.

You can pretty much always go with Pedroia, but this is a solid matchup. He’s hit .364 against Chris Tillman in 11 at-bats. He’s currently hitting .323. The last three years he has hit .303 at Fenway. Lock and load.

THIRD BASE
1. Manny Machado
2. Alberto Callaspo

Manny hit a game winning home run Wednesday, and though he’s struggled this season he has hit a bit better versus righties than lefties (1-for-9 vs. lefties). Machado faces spot starter Alfred Aceves Thursday.

Callaspo has hit .283 against righties the past three years. He’s got five hits in 11 at-bats against righties this season. He faces righty A.J. Griffin Thursday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Alexei Ramirez

Andrus has produced 16 hits in 51 at-bats against King Felix, a .314 batting average. He’s also driven in eight runs in the matchup. Maybe the matchup will help him out of his current slump (four hits in 21 at-bats).

Ramirez faces a struggling Dan Haren who has he two hits in eight at-bats against. Is that enough of a reason to start the consistently solid Ramirez?

OUTFIELD
1. Coco Crisp
2. David Murphy

Crisp is hitting .364 with a homer in 33 at-bats against Jason Vargas. He’s also hitting .444 with four homers, four doubles, and six RBIs the last seven days.

Murphy has a whopping 63 at-bats against Felix Hernandez in his career, and he’s dong very well despite 15 Ks. When he isn’t whiffing he’s pounding out hits as evidenced by his .302 average, two homers and 10 RBIs.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Jason Marquis
3. Zack Greinke
4. Dylan Axelrod

Griffin had a 2.90 ERA on the road last season and he get’s to take on an Angels club, in Anaheim. The A’s have also scored 18 runs in their last two games as their offense is humming giving you a warm feeling about Griffin getting plenty of run support.

Marquis has held current Dodgers batters to a .242 average and two homers over 128 at-bats (Matt Kemp is only 2-for-17 off Jason in his career). Marquis is also 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 14 career starts against the Dodgers.

Greinke has held the Padres to a .250 batting average in 48 at-bats. The Padres only have one player with 20 at-bats that is hitting .270. They also have only three homers in 264 at-bats. Greinke also looked sharp in his first outing (0 ER in 6.1 IP).

Axelrod… hey, there aren’t that many options to turn to with a lot of early games. The Nats are 6-2 on the year and they are a solid offense, so this is more likely a shot in the dark you should avoid, than solid advice. At least I’m honest.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 14 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to Fanduel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

And now, a video giving some thoughts on the matchups of the day.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher. We all know that. But being able to summon his skills for a game here or there in October isn’t going to make him a worthy fantasy addition in 2013 is it? Will the move back to the NL to pitch for the Dodgers make him what he once was – a viable option on the hill in mixed leagues, a season after going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA? Let’s investigate.

Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch, always has been. Petco Park in San Diego, and AT & T Park in San Francisco, are also good places to pitch. That’s a solid foundation for Beckett, if the skills are still there. Are they?

Beckett has done the old Alex Rios, the up and down effort thing, in the ERA column. Look at his yearly marks since 2005:

3.37
5.10
3.27
4.03
3.86
5.87
2.89
4.65

Can’t explain that, it’s just the way it is.

His WHIP? From 2007-09 it was 1.14, 1.19 and 1.19. It then exploded in 2010 up to 1.54. He knocked it back down to 1.03 in 2011 before seeing it rise to 1.33 last season.

Let me take a step back for a moment. Did you notice that Beckett had a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2011? Two years ago he was an elite performer folks. Has the 32 year old lost it overnight? I find that hard to believe, don’t you?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Lat season was the first time since 2006 that Beckett failed to strike out eight batters per nine innings as the mark fell to 6.97. That’s a concern. His fastball lost about two mph from his normal heater at 91.4 mph (career 93.7). Is that a blip on the radar or his new level? That’s a fair question to ask. It would seem that Beckett realized what was going on as he threw his fastball only 48 percent of the time, the first time that mark had ever dipped under 50 percent. It also marked a fourth straight season of a decline in the percentage of times he hucks the heater. He’s upped his use of the cutter in recent seasons moving from 15, to 18 to 21 percent the past three years. Are batters falling for it? Yes, they are. His 32.3 percent mark in pitches swung at by batters outside of the strike zone in 2012 was the second highest mark of his career. Batters also swung at 69.1 percent of the pitches he tossed up there in the strike zone, the highest that mark has been since 2004. That’s an odd coupling. However, given his 8.5 percent mark on swing and misses on strikes, he’d been in the 8′s in five of the previous six seasons, would seem to suggest that his “stuff” was still OK.

However, Beckett seems to be nibbling more than ever. His 43.3 percent mark in pitches thrown inside the strike zone last season was the lowest of his career an a third straight season of a mark under 50 percent. In fact, the mark has gone down 4-straight years, and no one likes to see that (what I would like to see is pictures of Olivia Wilde – that is one beautiful woman no matter what scale you are using. Hypnotic eyes wouldn’t you say? How the heck did funny man Jason Sudekis get her? What does that guy have on me? OK, maybe $20 million dollars helps.). Beckett walked 2.75 batters per nine innings last year, one hundredth higher than his career mark. Seems like all the nibbling didn’t lead to any increase in the free passes he issued.

Always a homer magnet, Beckett has a career mark of 1.01 which belies a couple of whopper seasons he’s had (1.58 in 2006 and 1.41 per nine in 2010 stand out). His new home in L.A. will help that. According to Park Indices the last three years, Dodgers Stadium is just three percent above the NL average. The park shouldn’t be much of a factor in 2013.

So where does that leave us with Beckett?

It seems like Beckett will slot in as the third starter for the Dodgers behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (when healthy). That’s three potentially impressive arms at the top of the rotation, and the other two should hopefully allow Beckett to relax a bit. The full-time return to the NL will also help, as well pitching in Dodger Stadium. Given the downturn that Beckett offered last year in the mph and K columns, some trepidation is warranted. On the other hand he is a year removed from dominating batters, is only 32 years old, and would seem to profile as an arm that is going much later than he should in many drafts. In a standard mixed league how could you not be interested in a guy with the pedigree of Beckett as your 5th starter (see the ADP information)?

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer is a flame thrower for the Tigers who has had a difficult time early in his career flashing start to start consistency. That somewhat uneven effort has caused many to not look closely enough at his dynamic right wing. In what follows I’ll hope to be able to make the point that given his draft day cost that he is a hurler you should be targeting for inclusion on your fantasy squad (he’s barely being taken inside the top-20 at the starting pitching position).

REVIEW: 2008-09

Scherzer started out his big league career with the D’backs and over two seasons he was 9-15 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was a huge K arm though with an average of 9.54 punchouts per nine innings leading to a solid 2.86 K/BB ratio.

REVIEW: 2010

Max posted a career best set of ratios in 2010 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Oddly, his strikeout ratio dipped to 8.46 per nine though his walk rate continued to dwindle (3.22 per nine after seasons of 3.38 and 3.33).

REVIEW: 2011-12

This is when things started to take off for Scherzer. He won 31 games, more about that below, and he struck out an average of 9.53 batters per nine innings while dropping his walk rate to 2.73 per nine allowing his K/BB ratio to improve to an impressive level of 3.49 (that mark is 16th in baseball among hurlers who tossed 325 innings.).

THE 2012 RUN

In April last year Scherzer went 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA and 2.05 WHIP as batters hit an unconscionable .356 off him. Obviously the regression monster showed his face the rest of the season, and over the final five months of the year he was very, very good. Not just that, he was actually excellent.

Over his final 27 starts of 2012 Scherzer went 15-4, posted a 3.14 ERA, had a 1.16 WHIP, a 11.2 K/9 mark an a 4.34 K/BB ratio. Let’s compare that to the work of Justin Verlander last season.

Verlander: 17-8 (.680 WIN%), 9.0 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Scherzer: 15-4 (.789 Win%), 11.2 K/9, 4.34 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Amazing how similar the two were in overall value if you remove April from Scherzer’s line, isn’t it?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

THE STRIKEOUT

Scherzer isn’t just a dominating K arm, he’s a historically impressive one. Last season Scherzer struck out 231 batters in 187.2 innings. Since he failed to throw even 190 innings the K total hasn’t been viewed by many in the manner it should be cause he didn’t push 250 Ks. So here’s some context to help out.

(1) Only one man in baseball had more punchouts, and that was his teammate Justin Verlander who had 239 in 238.1 innings, or, 50.2 more innings pitched than Mad Max (I told myself I wasn’t going to use that term in this piece but I just couldn’t help myself). Fifty more innings than Scherzer folks. Think about that for a brief moment before moving on to #2.

(2) Scherzer’s K/9 mark was 11.08, the best in baseball. No one else even struck out 10.50 per nine (Yu Darvish was second at 10.40).

(3) Scherzer’s K/9 mark of 11.08 was historically impressive. Among all pitchers who have ever thrown 162 innings in a season, the number of innings needed to qualify for the ERA title, that 11.08 number has only been bettered 18 times – ever (the single season record is 13.41 by Randy Johnson in 2001 when he struck out 372 batters in 249.2 innings).

(4) Scherzer has thrown 804.2 innings in his career and has posted a 9.27 strikeout per nine mark. Among pitchers who have thrown 800 innings in their career that K/9 mark sits at 11th all-time. Eleventh.

The fact is that Scherzer is as dominating a strikeout arm as you are going to find among starting pitchers.

WINS

You all know my thoughts on wins, I don’t pay them much mind since so much goes into them beyond what the pitcher can control, but facts are facts, and the last two years Scherzer has been a big winner. The last two years Scherzer has won 31 games. That total of 31 wins is the 9th best mark in baseball (tied with James Shields, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels). Max is also one of just 10 hurlers who have won 15 games in each of the past two years.

OUTLOOK

Scherzer is as dominating an arm as there in baseball among starting hurlers. Yes there are some concerns about his ability to bring it start after start, but as I noted above he was pretty much nails after a rough April last year. If he can lock things in for six months, and stay healthy (the team is bringing him along slowly this spring), there’s a very real chance that he could post numbers that can rival those of his more celebrated rotation mate at a greatly reduced cost. Without question the risk is higher with Scherzer than Verlander, but given the draft day cost Scherzer profiles as the arm I would rather target in 2013.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Contracts & Free Agents

Breaking up the monotony of my daily fantasy baseball Player Profiles, I thought it would be a good thing to take a look around the league at some of the players who have signed deals or who are looking for a new home for the 2013 baseball season.

Jonathan Broxton received a 3-year deal, with a club option ($9 million), for $21 million to stay with the Reds. This means two things. Aroldis Chapman is headed to the starting rotation. It’s a risk after his magnificent season – 38 saves, 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 15.32 K/9 – but I think it’s a risk worth taking. In my opinion, and we see this every year, you don’t have to be an elite talent to have success in the 9th inning. Plus, Aroldis has to be more valuable pitching seven innings 30 times than just 71.2 innings out of the bullpen like he did last year, right (note: Reds’ pitching coach Bryan Price said Chapman will be on an IP count in ’13 but would not mention what the number is)? That is if the team has a viable 9th inning option to turn to. Broxton may not be that guy. I’m a big fan of the 2.22 GB/FB ratio he posted last season, and that 2.48 ERA is also a solid mark, but I’m still greatly concerned. Broxton’s heater is down three mph from his heyday, and his K/9 mark of 6.98 last season was four full batters below his career average. Four. He also walked fewer batters than even before (his BB/9 was down a full batter), and there is little reason to think he will be able to keep the number that low again. I see trouble ahead with Broxton working the 9th.

Zack Greinke is gonna get paid. Oh is he. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests that a source told him there might even be chance that Greinke will be able to better the record $161 million deal given to CC Sabathia. Even if he doesn’t get there, a deal of six years and $150 million seems immanently possible.

Jair Jurrjens is not likely to be back with the Braves. Who can blame them. He posted a 6.89 ERA and 1.86 WHIP last season in 11 outings while spending a large portion of the year in Triple-A where he didn’t exactly stand out (4-6, 4.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.85 K/9). He’s nothing more than a 5th starter in the big leagues despite the success that he has found in the past.

Francisco Liriano is now talking with the Twins who literally have one pitcher in their starting rotation – Scott Diamond. Apparently they haven’t gotten enough of a guy who has gone 15-22 with an ERA over 5.00 the past two years.

Wilton Lopez has been dealt to the Phillies (the deal isn’t official yet). Jonathan Papelbon is obviously locked into the 9th inning for the Phils, but Lopez will be an able bodied setup man. Coming off his best season (career bests in ERA 2.17, K/9 7.33 and GB/FB 2.60), Lopez should be an excellent setup man as well as a positive own in NL-only leagues.

Russell Martin is looking for a 4-year deal for $36-40 million. I think he’s been huffing paint. Still, it seems like he’ll get at least three years and $25 million from someone (John Heyman reports that the Pirates are likely to go that high). Martin last hit .250 in 2009, hasn’t stolen double-digit bags since 2009 and has watched his OBP go down 4-straight years to last seasons career worst .311. That’s a lot of junk to pay $8 mil a year for just to get 20 homers (13 of his 21 homers were at home last year where the ball flies out of the yard with frequency).

Andy Pettitte will pitch for the Yankees in 2013 after agreeing to a one year, $12 million deal. Pettitte is coming off a fantastic 12 start season that saw him post the second best ERA (2.87) and WHIP (1.14) of his career. Given that his career marks are 3.86 and 1.35, and that he is 40 years old, you’d be foolish to expect him to be as effective next season as he was last season.

Mark Reynolds seems unlikely to remain in Baltimore. Someone will pay the slugger even though he’s coming off a down season of .221 with 23 homers and 69 RBIs. Don’t forget that the previous three seasons (2009-11) that this guy averaged 38 homers, 91 RBIs and 87 runs scored a season.

Finally… Carlos Ruiz is a moron. Ruiz was suspended for 25 games for using Adderall (a medication for ADHD that is often used illegally by players to help sharpen their focus). Ruiz is an idiot for cheating, but there is also another layer of idiocy here. The first positive test for amphetamines results in further testing but NO suspension. That means that Ruiz failed the test – twice. I’m just gonna say it flat out – there is no doubt that Ruiz is a cheater.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September6, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Three keepers between Aramis Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Zack Greinke, Anthony Rizzo, David Ortiz and Mike Morse?
– @SammyLlenas

Keeper questions are always tough. Are there dollar figures attached? Are there contract years attached to the players? What positions does your league start? Five outfielder or three? Corner and Middle infielders? How many teams in your league? In lieu of that information, I’ll just dive right in and give my thoughts.

Ramirez is dealing with a minor back issue, but it hasn’t precluded him from doing what he always does, and that is performing like a top-10 third baseman. After a slow start to the year he’s predictably killed it of late. Through 126 games this season he’s hitting .295 with 21 homers, 89 RBIs and 43 doubles, an NL leading total. There’s also this. In each of the the last nine seasons in which he has appeared in 123 games Aramis has hit at least 21 homers with 85 RBIs. He is 34, and his fly ball rate has declined the past two years, so 30 homers isn’t likely to happen anymore, but the rest of his game is still nails.

Andrus has hit .298 this year, the best of his four year career. His OBP is .361, the best of his young career. His SLG is .391, the best of his young career. That’s all good stuff. His steal total is down a bit with 20, after 3-straight years of 30 steals, so that’s a concern in the fantasy world. He’s also scored 76 times putting him on pace to pretty much inch up to his 92 runs scored average the past two years. Given his age, the offense he plays in, and the improvements in his game at the plate, and the position he plays, he’s a very attractive keeper option.

Greinke has improved his work of late, after a rough start to his return to the AL. I spoke about the Angels’ hurler in my Around the Horn video.

Rizzo started out on fire when called up by the Cubs, but he’s predictably regressed. Oh he’s still hitting a solid .290 with 11 homers in 241 at-bats, an excellent turnaround after last years unmitigated disaster with the Padres (.141 with one homer in 128 at-bats). Rizzo has hit .238 with 12 homers in 369 career at-bats, terrible numbers for a corner infield option in mixed leagues. Even if we just forget about last season with the Padres, Rizzo’s current pace, spread out over 550 at-bats, would lead to a season of .290-25-73-68, and those just aren’t very impressive numbers for a mixed league first baseball. There’s also the fact that he’s been a below average fly ball hitter in his young career, and that his current line drive rate of 26 percent just isn’t sustainable.

Ortiz has played just nine games at first base the past two years. As a designated hitter only option in the fantasy game, Ortiz’ value is somewhat limited. It won’t matter if he’s hitting .318 with a 1.026 OPS like he has this year. Unfortunately for Ortiz, the last time that he posted an OPS over 1.000 was 2007. There’s also the matter of him hitting .257/.356/.498 from 2008-10. Is it really safe to assume that a 37 year old, coming off a significant Achilles injury, is going to continue to hit as well as he did this season? I’ll answer that question for you. No it is not. I’m not saying that Ortiz couldn’t pop 30 homers and knock in 100 runs next year, that’s possible given his resurgence, but he’s not likely to hit .300, he isn’t going to post a .415 OBP (his current mark), and he’s not going to maintain that .611 SLG. Just not gonna happen.

Morse hit .303 with 31 homers and 95 RBIs last season, his first full season in the big leagues. Already 30 years old, he’s a bit older than you likely thought. He’s battled successfully through injuries this season hitting .287 with 12 homers and 47 RBIs through 82 games, but that effort is well off his pace from last season (is he were to maintain his pace over the 522 at-bats he had last season he would hit .287 with 19 homers and 79 RBIs). I’m also tremendously concerned by the fact that he’s just been unable to learn how to take a pitch. After a mere 36 walks last year he’s become even less patient this year with just 13 walks. Thirteen. It’s pretty amazing he’s hit nearly .300 since the start of last season given that fact.

Ortiz is too old to keep, and with the utility only eligibility, I’ll pass. Greinke is a top level arm, but in a setup where you are only keeping three players I see little need to hold a pitcher who isn’t a top-10 option. Who is the last guy I would let go? For me, it’s Morse or Rizzo (I’m holding Aramis and Andrus). Rizzo may or may not be more productive than Morse next season, but he is seven years younger and does have a higher ceiling. Given that fact I’d lean Rizzo, though at the same time it’s not the easiest call I’ve ever made given that I have no faith that Rizzo will be a top-50 fantasy player in 2013.

Who do you like rest of the way, Ryan Ludwick, Mark Reynolds, or Delmon Young?
– @LorenzKong2

Ludwick has hit .276 with 25 homers and 72 RBIs in just 373 at-bats this season. He’s also been a star in the second half hitting .321 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs an a 1.016 OPS in 48 games. While all of that sounds like Ludwick should be the must hold here, what about these two salient points. (1) Ludwick last hit a homer on August 18th meaning he’s gone 14 games without a homer. He’s also produced just three RBIs in that time. He’s not exactly trending up. (2) Ludwick hit .237 with 13 homers last year, and .251 with 17 homers in 2010. Not exactly a solid set of efforts. In fact, since a career best season in 2008, Ludwick regressed each of the past three seasons before returning to prominence this year.

Reynolds has been a massive disappointment. Still, some notes. (1) His .232 batting average is only five points off his career rate. (2) His .350 OBP would be a career best. (3) His .797 OPS is only .016 points off his career pace. (4) His 0.47 BB/K mark would be a career best. Ditto his 30.3 percent K-rate. (5) His 22.2 percent line drive rate would be a career best. He’s failed to reach even 17.5 percent the past three years. So why the struggles this year? His power stroke vanished for a long while. The good news is that it’s back. With a vengeance. In his last six games he’s gone deep six times, has driven in 13 runs, and scored eight times. Going back further, over his last 28 games, Reynolds is hitting .304 with a 1.113 OPS, 20 runs scored, 23 RBIs and 10 homers. Killing it (the folks over at Fleaflicker are starting to take notice).

Young doesn’t have near the power of the other two options, but he is a very stable option at the dish, something the other two men can’t exactly claim to be. He’s also surging over his last 30 games. Young is hitting .321 with six bombs and 20 RBIs for the Tigers. The power isn’t likely to last, his total of 17 homers is already the second best mark of his six year career (he’s averaged 14 homers a season the last five years). He is a .286 career hitter, so that .277 batting average could come up a tad without anyone raising an eyebrow.

Young is hot, and is the best option in batting average. Ludwick has had a nice bounce back season, a terrific one in fact, but he has slumped. Reynolds is the hottest hitter at the moment, and the one likely to make the biggest dent the rest of the way. A .300 batting average from Delmon over 100 at-bats isn’t going to do much of anything for a team that has racked up thousands upon thousands of at-bats. Reynolds could help in the homer, RBI and runs scored enough to help a team gain a point here or there in the standings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Around the Horn: September 5, 2012

(1) Ryan Vogelsong struggling for Giants.

(2) Kenley Jansen to return in September.

(3) Zack Greinke finally finding his groove with Angels.

(4) Andrew McCutchen back on track. Can he hold off Melky Cabrera?

(5) Adam LaRoche big time run producer.

(6) Jesus Montero solid in 2nd half.

(7) Alfonso Soriano powering the ball.

(8) Mark Reynolds also powering the ball.

By Ray Flowers