(1) Ryan Vogelsong struggling for Giants.
(2) Kenley Jansen to return in September.
(3) Zack Greinke finally finding his groove with Angels.
(4) Andrew McCutchen back on track. Can he hold off Melky Cabrera?
(5) Adam LaRoche big time run producer.
(6) Jesus Montero solid in 2nd half.
(7) Alfonso Soriano powering the ball.
(8) Mark Reynolds also powering the ball.
By Ray Flowers
I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.
Drop disappointing Eric Hosmer for a legit power threat of Manny Machado in 16 team non-keeper points league?
– @linas2000
Manny Machado is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. Still, it’s very questionable for the Orioles to be calling up the 20 year old at this point. First, though a shortstop, the club is going to play him at third base where he has played all of two games. Second, he’s just 20 years old and owns a mere .263/.343/.428 slash line in 218 minor league games. Third, let’s just put it – is he ready for this? One GM doesn’t think so according to Jon Heyman. “I still think it’s too early to recall him. Just because he’s better than Wilson Betemit doesn’t mean it’s the right move for the kid.” To me, this move smacks of desperation by the Orioles.
Hosmer is hitting .227 with one home run in his last 26 games, and he’s just not getting it done despite the fact that we all expect him to one day. Given that your league is 16 teams you could take a shot at catching lighting in a bottle with Machado if you need to do something significant to move up in the standings. I don’t think Machado’s going to have a Josh Rutledge like impact but at this point Hosmer isn’t getting it done.
Zack Greinke has become a matchup pitcher this year. Am I wrong?
– @keithsweat96
All depends how you look at it. On the year Greinke has a solid set of ratios (3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), has nearly a K per inning (137 in 142 frames) and his 3.81 K/BB ratio is impressive. In three starts with the Angels he has a 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a terrible 1.88 K/BB ratio. He’s also posted a poor 5.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his last five starts with a 2.60 K/BB ratio. The answer depends on the strength of your pitching staff and your place in the pitching categories. If you wanted to be careful with starting Greinke I could totally understand that, but if you wanted to continue to roll with him that might also make sense as well. Manage those categories.
12 team 5x5roto. Amazing I’m asking you this, but is Jon Lester dropable at this point?
– @Only1dREWSTAR
It’s a fair question to ask given his up and down work, though I’m still inclined to say that it would be a mistake to let him go (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree). I certainly wouldn’t feel compelled to start him right now though. In five of his last six outings he’s allowed at least four earned runs, and over his last five starts his ERA is 8.79 and his WHIP 1.57. He’s also gone 0-4 and only won five games all year. The real answer to your question is who you would be picking up off waivers to take his roster spot. There might be a hidden gem or two on your waiver-wire wire even in a 12 team league, so it’s worth investigating.
Aaron Hill or Neil Walker – which one has more value ROTW? Looking more for Hits/Runs/RBI.
– @atlbravesfan_84
Let’s compare season long work.
A. Hill: .293-13-47-53-8 with a .823 OPS and 119 hits
Walker: .292-13-65-57-7 with a .811 OPS and 115 hits.
Well that didn’t help at all since they are both identical performers this year. How about we look at who is trending and take a look at the last month.
A. Hill: .269-2-7-14-1 with a .700 OPS and 25 hits
Walker: .294-7-24-15-0 with a .944 OPS and 25 hits
Again, a virtual toss up.
I’d slant things slightly toward Walker given that he is a slightly performer better right now and has been a run driving force for two months now.
Would you drop Phil Hughes for Matt Harvey?
– @ThatsAndyG
I feel like a broken record here. I don’t know how many times I can tell people that I’m not a fan of Hughes. Sure he has his moments, but at the end of the day he’s just… average. The 11 wins and 3.61 K/BB ratio are strong totals, but the 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are league average stuff. He’s also a total disaster with homers given that his GB/FB ratio is brutal at 0.67 this year and 0.75 for his career. The guy is always going to be homer prone in that ball yard in New York. Plus, remember this. Over his last 49 outings covering 281.2 innings Hughes is 23-20 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.46 K/BB. All of that is league average stuff.
My only real concern with Harvey is that the Mets plan on shutting him down around 165-170 innings. He’s at 126.1 innings right now.
Who will have more saves ROTS: Casilla, Balfour, Myers, Janssen?
– @BodyPillow_Pimp
I really just wanted to answer a question from “Body Pillow Pimp.” Great user name. As for the question, honestly, how am I supposed to know the answer to this one? I have no idea who will produce the most saves. We need to get past the point where we are “guessing” about who will have more saves. You shouldn’t be rostering players on a guess, you should be rostering them on skill and opportunity.
Santiago Casilla: Has a blister, a 5.40 ERA, a loss and two blown saves in his last 11 outings. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo are more likely to get the save chances ROTW.
Grant Balfour: 0.90 ERA/WHIP last 10 outings. Meanwhile, Ryan Cook has four blown saves an a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last 10 outings. The A’s still keep giving Cook the ball in the 9th though.
Brett Myers: He’s appeared in nine games with the White Sox and doesn’t have a single save chance to his name.
Casey Jannsen: He’s 14/15 this year in save chances, has a 2.11 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 44 Ks in 42.2 innings.
Should be pretty obvious who the best choice is (hint: it’s the last guy I mentioned).
Oh, an in case you were wondering what my answer is for the self asked question from my Twitter account last year – Batman or Jason Bourne ? – I’m going against the grain and saying Jason Bourne. Batman is amazing, especially in the Christopher Nolan/Christian Bale incarnation, but Batman’s success is with the gadgets money buys. Bourne improvises and gets by more on his wits than anything fancy pants he pulls out of a utility belt.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray breakdown some of the latest trades including Hanley Ramirez going to the Dodgers. They will also discuss some possible pitchers that could be getting traded before the deadline.
Hanley Ramirez, Ichiro, Zack Greinke (who was dealt to the Angels right after this broadcast was recorded).
Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.
What should we expect from Starling Marte? Is he a 12 or 14 team league add?
– @Daydreaming08
Everyone loves talented rookies. It’s why guys like Matt Moore, Trevor Bauer, Randall Delgado, Drew Pomeranz and Devin Mesoraco have done so well this year. Wait a second, none of those guys has done well (I’d be willing to give Moore a pass, but expectations were so high to start the year that it’s nearly a lock that his owner has been disappointed). For every Bryce Harper there are 25 hot shot rookies that fail to come through. For every Mike Trout there are… well every rookie who has ever played may have to take a backseat to Trout by the time it’s all said and done, and that’s truly shocking. The bottom line is that a team of Nick Swisher’s and Mark Buehrle’s will likely beat up on a team of youngsters year after year. Remember that.
As for Marte, who has been called up by the Pirates, the hype would appear to be justified (at least somewhat). A center fielder by trade, he’ll play left since Andrew McCutchen kinda has that CF spot on lock down. In 98 games at Triple-A Marte was hitting .286 with 12 bombs, 20 doubles, 13 triples, 61 RBIs and 21 steals. This effort comes on the heels of Marte winning the Eastern League batting title (Double-A) when he hit .332. Obviously Marte, ranked the 36th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America early in July, is one of those rare talents that can do it all. A certain blazer who is athletic as all get out, there are still some questions about his ability to control the strike zone, despite all his success, as he is one of those free swingers who rarely takes a walk (his minor league BB/K mark is awful at 0.20, less than half the big league average). Given that approach he could easily struggle, at least in the batting average category.
If you’re in a league that starts five outfielders Marte is without a doubt worth taking a shot on in a 14 team league. Even in a 12 team league he shouldn’t be floating around on the waiver-wire, but make sure you don’t cut an established major league to add him because while there is no doubting Marte has the talent to be a star, there’s a big difference between possessing skills and being able to consistently produce on a big league diamond.
Do I trade Drew Stubbs for Todd Frazier? I need HR, don’t really need SB.
– @MonkeyWithAHalo
Expectations can really be a killer can’t they? I’ve written about this elsewhere recently, but it deserves to be repeated here as well. Stubbs it the modern day Mike Cameron, a guy who helps you in the counting categories, offers a nice mix of power and speed, but one who is going to do you no favors when it comes to the batting average category. However, with seven hits in his last two games, Stubbs has pushed his average up to .230. Not much of course, but it’s only another hot 10 days from the .243 mark he posted last season. In fact, and his owners might not believe it, but Stubbs has been exactly the same player this year that he was last season. Here are his numbers from 158 games last season followed by his numbers in 80 games this year. Heck, I’ll just double his current rate of production which would give us his numbers in 160 games if he were to maintain his current pace.
2011: .243-15-44-92-40
2012: .230-20-58-98-40
That’s right, Stubbs is actually performing better this season than he did last year. Better. In fact, his current effort is right on par with his 2010 effort (.255-22-77-91-30) given the increase in steals this year.
Frazier is seeing playing time at first, third and the outfield for the Reds. Scott Rolen is hitting about as well as Mike Leake, and Joey Votto is on the sidelines working his way back from knee woes giving Frazier a real shot at everyday playing time. Frazier has responded by hitting .302 since the All-Star break, an on the year he has hit .283 with a .343 OBP and .529 SLG. Do you know how many third base eligible players who qualify for the batting title can match those three slash line numbers? The answer is two: Miguel Cabrera (.328/.388/.582) and Edwin Encarnacion (.296/.392/.584). Add in 10 homers in just 223 at-bats and Frazier has been a rather impressive power bat for the Reds.
Stubbs is clearly the superior fantasy performer, but if you are afraid of his average and only in search of a power increase you could make this move, though again, you’re clearly taking a step down in terms of overall production.
Zack Greinke or Lance Lynn rest of the season?
– @silaPssoR
Has it really come to this? Are we really talking about the 2009 AL Cy Young winner in the same breath as a rookie? Greinke clearly has failed to live up to expectations, and he’s had a pretty rough month of work (14 ER in 14 innings) before looking sharp in his last outing (7 IP, 1 ER Tuesday). On the flip-side, Lynn has surprised pretty much every baseball person in the game with his strong work this season. Many, including myself, predicted doom when he hit the skids a month ago (17 ER in 15.1 innings from June 19-30), but he’s actually rebounded extremely well (1 ER his last three starts). Kudos to him for that. Still, let’s keep our wits about us here. Let’s start with the numbers, which are amazingly similar.
Greinke: 9-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 122 Ks in 123 IP
Lynn: 12-4, 3.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 120 Ks in 116 IP
The numbers do favor Lynn. Everything else favors Greinke. That “everything” includes history of success at the big league level. It also includes the eye ball test, the scouting test and the talent test. In addition, Lynn tossed a mere 109.2 innings last year and he’s already up to 116 innings this season. In fact, as a professional, Lynn has never had a big IP season: 2008 (26.2), 2009 (148.2), 2010 (164), 2011 (109.2) and 2012 (116). Add in that Lynn is pitching better in the majors than he ever did in the minors, and I’m still going to side with Greinke despite the recent hiccup he’s trying to overcome.
Should I drop A.J. Pierzynski for Carlos Santana?
– @MattManSports
I try to live by a rather simple set of rules. Get my sleep, drink as many Vodka and Red Bull’s as possible, and try to always go with talent over recent production because in the long run, more times than not, it wins out.
If you had asked this question about which catcher to roster my answer would have been the same in March, as it would have been in May as it is here at the end of July – go with Santana. Younger and more talented, Santana struggled badly in the first half causing people to go running like they do when Godzilla goes rumbling down the street. Since the All-Star break though people have remembered why Santana was a top-3 catcher in all drafts this season as he’s hit .315 with a .500 OBP in 13 games thanks in part to 12 walks and just eight strikeouts. I know he’s only batting .234 with seven homers and 37 RBIs on the year, but I still haven’t been presented with an argument as to why AJP would be a better play from this point forward. ‘Idiot, I mean Ray, have you looked at the numbers that show Pierzynski to be dominating Santana across the board?’ Why yes random person, I have noticed those numbers. I also know the following. (1) Pierzynski is dealing with a minor side issue right now that’s kept him out of action for a few days. (2) He has no homers in 12 games and no RBIs in nine contests. (3) His current total of 16 homers is one off his combined total the last two seasons and the most he has hit since he parked 16 in 2006. (4) His total of 50 RBIs is just one behind his average mark the past three years. (5) His total of 40 runs scored is just one off his average the past two years. (6) Players just don’t set career bests in homers, RBIs, runs, walks, SLG and OPS in their 15th season, especially when they are catchers. You can’t take away what Pierzynski has done this season, but that doesn’t mean I have to buy that he will continue to operate at a pace that we’ve never seen from him before.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
(1) Hanley Ramirez dealt to Dodgers. Will he live up to expectations?
(2) Ryan Dempster not on way to Braves? Maybe Dodgers? Maybe staying in Chicago?
(3) Zack Greinke on Braves radar?
(4) A-Rod fractures hand, out 6-8 weeks. Chase Headley target?
(5) Cole Hamels signs 6-year, $144 deal with Phillies.
(6) Ryan Roberts to Rays.
(7) Wandy Rodriguez dealt to Pirates (will his ownership rate go up in his new home? See Feaflicker).
(8) Since All-Star break – Yoenis Cespedes/Carlos Santana on fire.
By Ray Flowers
Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss a big trade that Justin just accepted and breakdown the strategy behind it. The guys will also tackle what Bryan LaHair owners should try to do with a guy so hot but not respected.
Zack Greinke, Andre Ethier, Prince Fielder, Justin Upton, Bryan LaHair
Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.
ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP
The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.
Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.
Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine
With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.
2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP
1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.
1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.
1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.
1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.
1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.
1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).
1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.
1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.
1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.
2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.
2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?
90-160 INNING HURLERS
1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.
1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.
1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.
1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.
2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.
2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.
LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS
1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.
1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.
1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.
1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.
1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.
1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.
1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.
1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.
1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).
2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.
For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.
Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.
By Ray Flowers
Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.
PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?
S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched
Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:
Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.
SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).
EXAMPLE
Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP
Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.
Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).
Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.
.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.
Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.
34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP
So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.
SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45
Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.
2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP
Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.
Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)
0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).
0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.
0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.
0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).
0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).
0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.
Some names that stood out, for good or bad.
0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.
0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.
0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.
0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).
0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.
0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.
Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
By Ray Flowers
The season might be wrapping up, but there are still fantasy championships to be won. At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account people continually send in questions in search of answers. Hopefully my answers are helpful.
I’m so sick of Tim Stauffer. If I hadn’t reached my season acquisition limit I would never have him pitching.
– @iamfantasyking
Perception is a witch (you know what word really should be there).
I’ll grant you that two of the last five times that Stauffer has taken the hill he has gotten lit up (16 ER in a mere 4.2 innings), and that would kill anyone’s fantasy squad. Hell, the guys seen his ERA go up a full run over his last 10 outings. Who wouldn’t be ticked off? Still, I’m gonna say it’s been a successful season, and so should you.
Stauffer had never made more than 14 starts in a season his big league career and he’s up to 29 this season. That’s led to 173.2 innings, more than double his previous career best of 82.2 innings. Give him a check mark here.
For his career he owns a 3.97 ERA. This season his ERA, despite his recent downturn is 3.83. Give him a check mark here.
For his career he has a 1.32 WHIP. This season his WHIP is 1.27. Give him a check mark here.
For his career his K/9 mark is 6.11. This season his K/9 mark is 6.06. Give him a check mark here.
For his career his BB/9 mark is 3.08. This season his BB/9 mark is 2.64. Give him a check mark here.
For his career his HR/9 mark is 0.98. This season his HR/9 mark is 1.04. Give him a check mark here.
For his career his GB/FB ratio is 1.49. This season his GB/FB mark is 1.83. Give him a check mark here.
The point should be obvious. Stauffer has been the same pitcher he has always been, just over twice as many innings as normal. In my mind, that means he has had a successful season (especially when you consider things like the fact that he has a better ERA than Chris Carpenter and Zack Greinke while posting a better WHIP than Matt Garza and Wandy Rodriguez). The timing of his recent struggles is horrible for those fighting for a fantasy championship, but in totality Stauffer has pitched pretty darn well this season.
Is Steve Cishek worth it for saves while not blowing up WHIP/ERA or is Jonny Venters a better options for cheap wins?
– @Chaka606
The Marlins’ closer, Leo Nunez, has decided to suck wind for the second straight season in the second half. Nunez has seen his 3.51 first half ERA jump to 6.38 (he’s allowed 11 ER in his last 10.2 innings), and his BAA go from .221 to .307 since the All-Star break. Oddly, he’s only walked three batters in 20 outings, but he’s been bit by the long ball allowing four homers. As a result he has three saves in his last 11 outings while he has also blown three chances. His last save was August 16th. Cishek has picked up two saves in his last four outings as he gains a foothold in the 9th, and on the year he has a 1.24 WHIP and 47 Ks in 45.1 innings. However, he too has hit a bit of speed bump of late allowing six hits, three walks and four runs in his last 4.1 innings.
Venters continues to be an astronomically effective setup man who picks up the odd save (five on the year). He’s also vultured six victories against one loss. However, it’s his ratios that really stand out. On the year, and we’re talking 77.2 innings, Venters has a 1.39 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .160 BAA and 87 punchouts. That level of production just isn’t seen by anyone other than the elites in the game. To be quiet honest, his performance this year is superior to all but a handful of closers in the game – if that. He’s been flat out amazing.
All of that analysis misses the point. Wins are hard enough to predict for starting pitchers, in fact I would argue that no one can effectively predict them. As for wins from a reliever, you’re better off trying to guess how many times a day that everyone in the world sneezes. There is certainly no way to predict wins from a reliever, and you certainly shouldn’t add one trying to add to the win column for your team.
Secondly, the worry about blowing up your WHIP or ERA at this point of a season, if we are talking about relievers, is negligible at best. Let’s say your team has thrown 1,200 innings and it has allowed 450 runs leading to an ERA of 3.38. We can agree that the last month of work from Nunez is about as bad as it gets, right? So let’s add in 11 runs and 10.2 innings to the mix to give us 1,210 innings and 461 runs allowed. The result is a 3.43 ERA. I’m not saying that isn’t enough of a downturn to lose you a spot or two in your standings, but how often do relievers allow a run an inning over 10 innings? Not often is the correct answer, and with less than a month left in the regular season, it will be tough for most relievers to toss more than 10 innings the rest of the way.
The bottom line is that you needn’t worry too much about any reliever crashing your ratios at this point of the season.
Jeff Niemann or Doug Fister going forward?
– @MoonSetGallery
In 19 starts for the Rays this year Jeff Neimann has posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He’s also picked up a victory in five of his last seven outings. However, he’s started to allow a lot of homers, seven in his last seven outings, while his ERA is up to 4.01 in that stretch. That’s still a passable number of course, and his 3.03 K/BB ratio for the year says it isn’t all smoke and mirrors as he’s posting three year bests in K/9 (7.00) and BB/9 (2.31). His GB/FB ratio is also a career best at 1.27. All of that says that his current level of production could be sustainable.
Fister has been a solid pitcher in his big league career with a 3.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but the prevailing wisdom was that his production would take a slight dip outside of Safeco which so heavily favors the pitcher. That assumption has been wrong as Fister has taken off since he joined the Tigers. One of the biggest reasons is that his run support, which was under two runs with the Mariners, is approaching 4.7 in his seven starts with the Tigers. It’s also helped that in his seven outings he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once leading to a 4-1 record, 2.64 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s actually pitching like a new man with his new team (how appropriate). In addition to all of that just mentioned goodness, Fister has walked three batters in 44.1 innings. Three. That’s led to a BB/9 mark of 0.61. That mark was 1.97 in Seattle. He’s also struck out more batters with a 7.31 per nine mark compared to his 5.49 mark with the Mariners.
We may only be talking about a month plus of work, but Fister is performing at a near elite level since he joined the Tigers so ride that wave until his season hits the beach.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
There’s been some back and forth about whether or not, at their peak, that Roy Halladay or Greg Maddux was the better pitcher. I came down on the side of Maddux, while most others seemed to favor Halladay. Here are a few thoughts about their peak value, as well as their career long exploits.
Maddux: 8 All-Star Games, 4 Cy Young Awards (1992-95), 18 Gold Gloves
Halladay: 8 All-Star Games, 2 Cy Young Awards (2003, 2010), 0 Gold Gloves
Maddux: Top-5 in ERA 10 times, Top-5 in WHIP 10 times
Halladay: Top-5 in ERA 7 times, Top-5 in WHIP 6 times
Maddux: Top-5 in IP 11 times, Top-5 in WAR 11 times
Halladay: Top-5 in IP 8 times, 6 times
Who had the best four year span of pitching? Come on now.
Maddux (1992-95): 75-29, 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.97 K/9, 4.16 K/BB, ERA+ 200
Not only did Maddux win 4-straight Cy Young awards, he posted a 4-year ERA under 2.00. Oh, and that ERA+ mark points out that his ERA was, literally, 100 percent better than the league average (If you had a 3.00 ERA, and the league ERA was 3.00 it would be 3.00/3.00 = 1.00). His ERA was 1.98 while the leagues mark was 3.96.
Halladay (2006-10): 90-43, 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.89 K/9, 4.86 K/BB, ERA+148
Halladay won 15 more games, but he also lost 14 more. His ERA was nearly a full run higher, and in a surprise to most I would bet, Maddux produced a better K/9 mark in our four year comparison.
Maddux was a more durable pitcher. Think about this. As great as Halladay is, for all those innings he eats up, he hasn’t even tossed half as many innings as Maddux did in his career and he’s already 34 years old (2,482 innings compared to 5008.1). How many more elite seasons does Doc have left in his body?
I just can’t see how anyone could side with Halladay here.
ODDS AND ENDS
J.J. Hardy continues to impress. Since June 1st he has 21 homers, tied with Albert Pujols for the major league lead. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it. On the the year his 23 homers are 13 more than Orioles’ shortstops hit the last three years. Wow. He also leads AL shortstops with a .988 fielding percentage.
Zack Greinke might be 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the road, but in 10 starts at home with the Brewers he has gone 8-0 with a 3.36 ERA an a 1.03 WHIP. Toss in a stupendous 11.89 K/9 mark and 9.44 K/BB ratio and you can make an argument that he has been the best “home” pitcher in baseball this year.
Casper Wells has only 250 big league at-bats, but he’s hit .296 with 13 homers, 41 RBI and 39 runs scored in that time. Dealt to the Mariners from the Tigers in the Doug Fister deal, Wells has taken off hitting .341 with five homers, 12 RBI, two steals an a 1.102 OPS in just 12 games. For those of you looking for a waiver-wire boost there aren’t likely to be many options performing better right now.
Finally, don’t forget to sign up for this weeks fantasy baseball contest that will be held on Friday. You can sign up to play me in the one day contest, it’s FREE, and you can win real money. For more see Win $100 FREE Taking on BBGuys.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
