Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News

Wednesday has been a day filled with plenty of news with most of it focused on the men who take the hill. There’s also a bit in here at the end about that rich guy who will patrol the outfield for the Nationals for those of you looking for a hitting fix.

Rich Harden: The flame throwing righty has reportedly agreed to a one year deal for $1.5 million to return to the club that he began his major league career with – the Athletics (there are another $1.5 million available in incentives). The deal will not become official for a couple of days yet as Harden still has to pass a physical – clearly not a given at this point. Early reports suggest that the A’s are looking at Harden as a bullpen option more than a challenger for a starting role, but you have to think they might be tempted to give him a shot at the 5th starters role. Regardless of where he pitches he is a wild card. Coming off a career worst 5.58 ERA and 7.34 K/9 marks – this guy owns career marks of 3.63 and 9.13 – Harden will be the quintessential late game flier. I’ll tell you this. Even with his average fastball sitting at just 90.5 mph last season, I wouldn’t want to face this guy coming out of the pen. Can you imagine batters trying to get their bats on that heater and his amazingly sinking change up? That sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

Cliff Lee Update: The final details of his contract are in. The Phillies will be paying the 32 year old lefty $120 million over five years. There is also a vesting option for $27.5 million (if he doesn’t reach the needed incentives in the deal, he would pickup a $12.5 million buyout meaning the deal comes to at least $135 million over the course of six years). A couple of obvious questions that need to be answered.

Does this signing make the Phillies better? Are you on crack? Of course it does. It not only does that, it makes them World Series favorites.

Does this deal give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball? Without a doubt it does.

Was this a smart deal for the team to enter into? This is a serious question that could play out very badly for the Phillies in the long run.

(1) If history is a guide, this was a terrible decision. This was the sixth $100+ million deal ever awarded to a pitcher. Here are the first five with a grade.

CC Sabathia (7 years, $161 million): So far, so good. An incomplete “A.”

Johan Santana (6 years, $135): He was great for one year and then solid in two. He had shoulder surgery and will likely miss half the year though in 201. An incomplete “B-” that grade could get much, much worse.

Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million): He’s stayed healthy and given the team innings. But all you need to know about his value is the fact that he was left off the playoff roster. An incomplete “D+”

Mike Hampton (8 years, $121 million): In a word – awful. “F.”

Kevin Brown (7 years, $105 million): Continually injured, he pitched well when healthy but for the duration of the deal he was merely average. “C-.”

(2) Does it make any sense to give a pitcher a deal that is this long when he is 32 years old? What this deal leads to is that at 35, 36 and 37 years of age Lee will be making $25 million a year. When he is 38 he will make either $12.5 or $27.5 million (depending on whether or not his option is picked up). If you think that sounds like a good idea I bet you are also the fella who would trade Chase Utley for Aaron Hill if he hit .220 in April.

The bottom line is that this signing gives the Phillies a magnificent chance to win the World Series in 2011, but they could pay a dear price in the long run for that short-term success.

Pitchers on the Market: Fausto Carmona, Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano

Greinke will be the most costly to acquire of this trio, and I touched on his situation a couple of days ago in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

Carmona is being viewed by some clubs as a cheaper fall back option if they aren’t able to get Greinke in a deal. Everyone knows that Carmona is nowhere near as impressive as Greinke, but he also won’t cost near as much to pick up. No matter where he ends up, Fausto just isn’t a very good fantasy option. While he throws an exploding sinker that can lead to wonderful outings, he is also a disaster when it comes to throwing strikes. I’ll give the guy some credit, he did knock his BB/9 mark down to a solid 3.08 last year, but he owns a 3.67 career rate and was over five per nine in 2008 and 2009. Carmona is also far from a strikeout option. In fact, despite throwing 210.1 innings last season, his total of 124 Ks was less than the totals of guys like Kevin Millwood (132) and Kyle Davies (126).

Zambrano is a very intriguing option. The most volcanic personality in the game, Big Z is as capable of throwing a no-hitter as he is likely to vent his childhood frustrations on an unsuspecting Gatorade cooler. The guy is just a flat out mess. At the same time, he rebounded from banishment in late June to allow two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 14 appearances during which time he posted a stellar 1.58 ERA. It likely wouldn’t take a hell of a lot to pry him from the Cubs given that he is due $17.85 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012 and $19.25 million on an option. Clearly if the Cubs want to move him to another club they are going to have to open their wallets big time and pay a large portion of that coin.

Jayson Werth: He was introduced officially at a press conference today, and manager Jim Riggleman mentioned that Werth might be asked to play center field against left-handed pitching. That means a couple of things. First, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina better not buy a house because they aren’t in the club’s daily plans. Second, Michael Morse could end up getting a lot more playing time than some people think in right field. Don’t overlook Morse. In 618 career at-bats he has hit .291 with 21 homers, 88 RBI and 73 runs scored. He could be a wonderful NL-only option this season.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 13, 2010

A couple of players have decided where they will be plying their talents in 2011, while a few others seem to be nearing an end to the saga of where they will play in the coming campaign.

Scott Downs: The ace lefty reliever left the cold of Toronto for the warmth of Southern California when he signed a 3-year, $15 million deal with the Angels. Downs has been a wonderful reliever since the start of the 2007 season with some rather impressive numbers that Zack Greinke would be proud to call his own – 2.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 7.80 K/9 over 236.2 innings. Downs is also a dominating force against any left-handed batter with a career .223 batting average against portsiders. Simply put, he is one of the best lefty relievers in baseball.

Is this signing a prelude to the Angels also adding power-armed Rafael Soriano as many thought? The answer would appear to be no. It turns out the Angels are likely done spending on their bullpen and will instead go with a bullpen by committee in 2011. “If we need one or two guys at times to get the last out, we’re going to do it but I don’t think the committee’s going to be very large,” Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia said. Fernando Rodney would appear to be the leader in the clubhouse for the spot, though if the matchup dictates we could easily see Kevin Jepsen, Jordan Walden and Mr. Downs working the ninth inning.

Matt Garza: This impressive right-handed arm is apparently up for auction, and the Cubs are looking at picking up the impressive righty. Why Garza over another available righty, Zack Greinke? As Ken Rosenthal pointed out in Gauging the Value of Garza vs. Greinke, the reason the Cubs, or any team, would be more interested in Garza is the fact that he is in a more financially agreeable position with the end result being he will be paid, over the next three seasons, about what Greinke will make over the next two. Garza also has five playoff starts in his career – Greinke has none – and Matt has pitched very well when the pressure has been on (2-1, 3.48 ERA), and you know teams love to see success in the second season. Both pitchers are solid options who have pitched well the past three years. Here are the numbers for 2008-10.

M.Garza: 34-31, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.10 K/9, 2.32/BB
Greinke: 39-32, 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.37 K/9, 3.74 K/BB

Either one would be a tremendous coup for whichever team acquires their services. From an on-field assessment Greinke would appear to be the better hurler, but in terms of the dinero it will take to sign their checks the next three years the more prudent course of action would be to pull the trigger on Garza.

Bill Hall: The Dodgers appear to be in the lead for his services with a report suggesting that they would even make him their starter in left field against right-handed pitching. For the Dodgers sake let’s hope that report was inaccurate. There might even be a bidding war on the horizon as the Astros too are interested in adding the versatile Hall. To think, all a guy has to do is hit worse than the league average (.247), never get on base (.316) and always strikeout (more than 30 percent of the time) to get paid millions of dollars to play professional baseball. These teams do realize that Hall has hit .225 with a .687 OPS over his last 1,082 at-bat don’t they? The versatility he brings is nice, and he does have some pop with 41 homers over those 1,082 ABs, but there is no way you can legitimately make the argument that he should be an every day player on a club that hopes to make the playoffs.

Brendan Ryan: No longer needed in St. Louis after the Cards brought in Ryan Theriot, Ryan was dealt to the Mariners for RHP Maikel Cleto. Ryan, widely regarded as a plus defender, Ryan hit a mere .223 with a sickly .573 OPS lasts season in more than 430 at-bats for the Cards (perhaps the wrist injury that required surgery was more of an issue than he let on). In a career of more than 400 games in the bigs, Ryan has hit .259 with a .658 OPS, though at least he has flashed some speed (39 steals). Can he hit enough to play everyday? The jury is still out. What we do know is that he will be given a chance to earn a starting job either at second or short for the Mariners. Here is what this move means for the Mariners.

(1) Chone Figgins will likely move back to third base this season. This is a great bonus since he will obviously qualify at second and third, as well as middle infield and corner infield, in fantasy leagues. He hit an awful .259 but he still stole 42 bases in 2010, so bump him up in your rankings a bit with this news.

(2) Dustin Ackley is going to have to impress in spring training to make the club. Despite a strong AFL effort that ended up with him taking home league MVP honors (he led the league in average at .424, OBP at .581 and SLG at .758), Ackley isn’t going to be handed a starting spot at second base, he is going to have to earn it. If Dustin doesn’t prove he belongs, Ryan will play second base.

(3) If Ackley proves capable of handling the rigors of second base and major league pitching, Ryan will then compete with Jack Wilson for the starting spot at shortstop. Wilson was no better than Ryan at the dish hitting .249 with a .598 OPS, and injuries limited him to 193 at-bats. He still plays decent defense, but why wouldn’t the Marinres go with the younger Ryan if everything else was equal?

As for Cleto, the 21 year old has hit 100 mph on the radar gun, but he had a terrible 6.16 ERA in Single-A ball last season and is one of those “projects” that teams simply take a flier on in case it comes together. “Cleto has a power arm,” GM John Mozeliak said. “He’s someone that could project as a back-of-the-bullpen talent with additional development and experience.”

In closing, for continued updates on the machinations of the world of baseball make sure you follow the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7, 2010

With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.

Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.

Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?

Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.

Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.

Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.

Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.

Why is No One Paying Attention?

Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.

By Ray Flowers

December Hot Stove

Here is a look around baseball with some exceedingly witty commentary from yours truly.

Quick Hitters

Lance Berkman – The Athletics seem to have him in their sites. He met with the club earlier this week, and a 1-year deal, similar to the kind that Ben Sheets signed with the club last year, seems to be coming down the pipe (Lance wants something like $8 million a year). Don’t count out the Rockies though – there is mutual interest there, though there may not be enough dough.

Ian Desmond – Apparently the Nationals are considering moving Desmond to help add depth to their starting rotation. He led baseball with 34 errors at short, but his future is very bright as he was one run from being one of only 22 players to hit 10 homers, with 60 RBI, 60 runs and 15 steals in 2010 and that was in his first big league season. Why trade that?

Adam Dunn – He wanted 4-years and $60 million – he got 4-years, $56 million from the White Sox. I have no issue with those numbers, not in the least. Neither should anyone else. I know he can’t play defense, but since 2004 Dunn is second in baseball with 282 homers, ninth in RBI (709), 15th in runs (657), fourth in extra base hits (496) and he’s sporting a .914 OPS which is higher than Hanley Ramirez (.905), Chase Utley (.901) and David Wright (.899) in the same time frame.

Zack Greinke – If he ends up with the Yankees that will be the worst match since the Yankees brought in Javier Vazquez – twice. Greinke would crumble in New York and if I was a praying man I would speak to the man upstairs that this proposed deal doesn’t come to fruition.

Kevin Gregg – He declined the Blue Jays offer of arbitration which will lead to the Jays getting a supplemental draft pick. Gregg should earn a multi-year deal from someone. You may not be aware of it, but Gregg is one of only seven pitchers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the past four years, and his total of 121 saves in that time is 11th overall.

J.P. Howell – He’ll be unavailable to start the 2011 season after shoulder surgery in May (he says he could be back by mid-April), and he hasn’t thrown a big league pitch since 2009. While its premature to think his career might be in jeopardy, you have to be concerned for the lefties future. I wish him luck with is long road back to the bigs.

Jose Lopez – He’ll be non-tendered by the Mariners, hardly a shock given that he is coming off his worst season in five years (.239-10-58-49-3 in 593 at-bats). Given that he owns a career slash line of .266/.297/.400 one can’t think that, in this economic environment, that he will find anyone willing to back up the money truck.

Jamie Moyer – The 48 year old lefty had Tommy John surgery on Wednesday that will knock him out of the 2011 season. Still, he isn’t ready to give up on his dream of 300 career victories (he has 267 wins). Moyer says he will target a return to action in 2012. If you aren’t rooting for him you must be related to Ebenezer Scrooge.

Oliver Perez – Reports out of the Mexican Winter League are that Perez is consistently sitting at 88 mph, with his fastball, but that he has been able to get his heater up to 91-92. He’s also thrown 10-straight scoreless innings. Add that up and I’m 100 percent positive that he will more than justify the $12 million he is to be paid in 2011 (dripping sarcasm). Goodness gracious.

Mark Prior – The Rangers are said to have interest in the one time phenom. Reports are that Prior has gotten his fastball back into the 91-92 mph territory, and with that speed he could have success as an arm out of the pen. He will never reach the heights that were once predicted, but I’m certainly rooting for him. Amazingly, he is still just 30 years old.

Robinson Tejeda – This is just the type of guy that teams should take a shot on. Why are the Royals willing to deal the cannon armed Tejeda who had a 3.54 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 61 innings last season? Because they are the Royals of course. Dating back to July 25th of 2009 Tejeda has posted a 2.97 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 8.84 K/9 mark over 112 innings. Who couldn’t use that?

Brandon Webb – Every team in baseball seems to be in on the sinker balling righty. Someone will give him a heavily incentivized deal to pitch for them in 2011, but if you talk to scouts they will tell you that his performance late in 2010, as he continues his attempted comeback from a shoulder surgery, was poor at best. Don’t forget that he has tossed all of four innings the past two years.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.

Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town

Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS

Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.

Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well

Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.

On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).

Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.

2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB

If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.

Who Am I?

I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.

I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.

I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.

I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.

Any idea who I might be?

No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?

I pitch for the Dodgers.

I’ve been in the United States for three years.

My name is Hiroki Kuroda.

Will someone please show me some respect?

Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)

By Ray Flowers

Which Pitchers Should You Avoid?

I was having a Twitter discussion today about the Angels’ Joe Saunders, and I said what I always say when asked about him – he just isn’t that good. The other guy pointed out that Saunders is fourth in wins the past two years, and while that’s true, it brought up the point that I always try to make when I talk to people about pitchers – wins are a horrid way to evaluate performance. It’s not 1967 when that’s all people cared about, it’s 2010 and hopefully we are all aware of how useless wins and loses are as a tool to evaluate a pitchers performance (consider Zack Greinke is 0-2 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while Casey Janssen is 3-0 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP). So what should you look at when it comes to which pitchers you might want to add if they are available or hold on to if they are struggling? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Look for high strikeout pitchers. The floor should be 6.00 per nine, but you really would like to see that number at seven or higher (extreme groundball pitchers can obviously have success with lower rates).

(2) Look for pitchers who keep walks in check. You don’t really want to add anyone with a mark higher than 3.50 per nine innings if you can help it.

(3) Look at pitchers with a K/BB mark of at least 2.00. The higher the better, ideally you’d like to be above 2.50, but be very careful of taking a shot at a guy with a mark under 2.00.

(4) Select pitchers who keep the ball in the ball yard. A HR/9 mark of 1.00 is about big league average.

(5) Power pitchers, who keep the ball on the ground, are the best options. Obviously these are always the ones that go for big bucks on draft day, so at least focus on a hurlers groundball to fly ball ratio (you’ll want it to be at least 1.25).

With those parameters, how do a few of the hotter starting pitchers in baseball this season fair? Here you go.

Mike Pelfrey: 4-0, 0.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
6.58 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 1.46 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.50 G/F
Grade: 3/5
Pelfrey is one of those guys who relies on a sinker and can confound analysis a bit, but at the same time he has never struck out more than 5.57 batters per nine in a season.

Doug Fister: 2-1, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP
4.33 K/9, 1.67 BB/9, 2.60 K/BB, 0.00 HR/9, 1.48G/F
Grade: 4/5
Fister will have success as long as his pinpoint control lasts. When it vanishes, he is in trouble given his poor K/9 rate and an impossible to hold on to HR/F mark.

Fausto Carmona: 3-0, 2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
4.28 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 1.08 K/BB, 0.33 HR/9, 1.38 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Carmona isn’t a strike out pitcher, he is a groundball inducing machine. Oddly, his G/F ratio is currently at a career worst level (2.49 career), but at least he has cut a full batter off his BB/9 mark from the past two seasons.

Mitch Talbot: 3-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2.39 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, 0.64 K/BB, 0.68 HR/9, 2.42 G/F
Grade: 2/5
Unless he keeps up that G/F rate, one that would land him in the top-10 in baseball this season, the lack of punchouts will sink him.

Dallas Braden: 3-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
5.70 K/9, 2.10 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB, 1.20 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Only his impeccable control keeps him from having a score of 0/5. If his BB/9 rate climbs back up to his career level of 2.90, he’ll be down to 1/5.

Livan Hernandez: 3-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
2.90 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 1.25 K/BB, 0.58 HR/9, 1.05G/F
Grade: 2/5
Livan is awful. I’m not even going to waste any time describing why – you can read that discussion in my Weekly Mailbag piece.

Jon Garland: 2-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
6.43 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 1.33 K/BB, 0.96 HR/9, 1.38G/F
Grade: 3/5
Considering that Garland has never posted a K/9 mark above 5.43 in his 10 previous seasons I feel pretty confident that number will regress in short order, and when it does only Petco Park will keep him from having a grade of 1/5 (it will keep the homers in check).

In the short-run you might be able to get away with a handful of these guys, but sooner or later the percentages will even out, and when they do my bet is that every pitcher on this list will suffer a substantial step back in their performance making them questionable plays in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

It's an Odd World

I was struck by quite a few oddities on this day as I sat down to pen this entry, so I just went with that theme for today.

Mat Latos was reportedly hitting 97 mph on the radar gun last night in his seven shutout innings against the Giants. Latos was almost matched on the night by the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who allowed only one run in his seven innings as the Giants lost 1-0. Moreover, Sanchez struck out 10 while allowing only one hit in the loss. Three points. (1) The last time that the Giants lost a game in which they allowed only one hit World War I was happening – it was September 22nd, 1917. (2) Latos is a potential stud. I worry though that the Padres will limit him to 150-160 innings, so it might be wise to ride him for a while and then move him to a leaguemate who isn’t aware that his innings will be limited. (3) I keep saying it, and people keep laughing at me, but Sanchez just might end up being as valuable as Clayton Kershaw in 2010. Seriously.

The Cubs are a mess, and Lou Pinella isn’t one to sit idly by. He’s already switched the lineup around moving Marlon Byrd (vs. lefties) and Kosuke Fukudome (vs. righties) to the top of the order, and now the team is making a change in the rotation. With Ted Lilly set to return from his minor league rehab assignment this weekend, and with that a starter will need to be moved to the bullpen. Speculation was rampant on Twitter today about who it might be, and ultimately the man chosen to move might have been the one least likely to have taken on a bullpen role – and that is Carlos Zambrano. Big Z hasn’t made a bullpen appearance since 2002. Zambrano certainly has the stuff to dominate in shorts stints, but there are two big concerns. First, he often has no idea where the strike zone is, and you don’t want a late game arm coming in walking guys. Second, Zambrano is the hot head of hot heads. How anyone thinks that matches a role where, even at best, you often end up blowing things for your team, is beyond me. Be very afraid Cubs fans, but if you can, hold on to him in fantasy leagues cause this simply cannot last (sooner or later Carlos Silva will implode).

Mark Ellis missed seven games with a hamstring injury before playing last night. Well, he suffered a setback and today the A’s placed him on the DL. So, he’ll now have to miss 15 more games. Would the team have been better off just placing him on the DL when the injury initially occurred, thereby saving them a week of time? Probably. Too bad the Red Sox did the same thing with their handling of the rib injury to Jacoby Ellsbury (they left him on the bench, but not on the DL, for a week and a half before deciding to DL him).

Prince Fielder isn’t hitting his weight, which is something when you way like a quarter of a ton (he is hitting .224). Beyond the concern with the batting average there is the fact that he hasn’t gone deep in 49 at-bats. Well, I guess we know why – he has a sore hand. I have a sore wrist, but it hasn’t precluded me from continuing to type out really good articles the past week (I must be tougher than Prince).

Zack Greinke allowed two runs over seven innings against the Blue Jays only to see his bullpen cough up the lead and the game. He’s now 0-2 through four starts despite a 3.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Speaking of the Royals, Jose Guillen continues to mash as if he was the reincarnated Josh Gibson. Guillen is hitting .377 with six homers and 13 RBI through 15 games. How is that for a forgotten man in the fantasy game?

Oh, and one last thing. Mr. Lyle Overbay, my starting first basemen in JEDWARS, an AL-only league, please remember how to hit. How he is batting .119 through 59 at-bats, considering that he owns a .277 career average, is simply astounding. It also goes to show you that things always even out. What do I mean? I have Guillen going absolutely nuts on that same squad, though his production has pretty much been negated by the failures of Overbay.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Ups and Downs

Day 2 of the major league season has been a bore (OK, it was Day 3, but the first day only had the Yankees and Red Sox playing, so you know what I mean). A day after all that excitement, the Albert Pujols homers, the 6-inning no-hit bid from Shaun Marcum, and the homer in his first major league at-bat from Jason Heyward, everyone was fired up. Roughly 24 hours later, it’s like your dog died. Major league baseball, in it’s unfailing wisdom, scheduled seven games for the second full day of games, but not a single one was scheduled to start before 7:10 PM EST. That’s right. A day after all of that excitement to kick off the campaign, major league baseball didn’t schedule a single day game, not one. I’m all for making a buck, but seriously MLB, how greedy can you be? Schedule a flipping day game. There is no excuse, none, that there should ever be a day in which at least one game is played during the day. I don’t care about TV rights or gate receipts, baseball was meant to be played during the day under the sun. So get with it MLB – some things are more important than the almighty dollar.

Zack Greinke hurled two run ball over six innings on Monday against the Tigers but wound up with a no decision when the bullpen blew his lead. That isn’t overly surprising for Greinke who was let down frequently last year. Amazingly, Greinke has allowed one or zero earned runs in 19 of his last 34 starts. That’s 56 percent of his starts since the beginning of the 2009 season.

Scott Kazmir was “very surprised” to learn that some shoulder weakness landed him on the DL to start the year. I’m only surprised that Kazmir still has a shoulder.

Casey Kotchman hitting third for the Mariners? Maybe they should have kept Russell Branyan after all.

Tim Lincecum was questioned about his struggles in camp both with velocity and results. After tossing seven shutout innings in dominating the Astros, no one is saying anything today.

Anyone else hate doing drafts on computers? The other day I was doing an AL-only auction and my computer crashed in the middle. I returned to learn that I missed out on Joba Chamberlain and Magglio Ordonez, two players I had been targeting in the middle rounds to get on the cheap. I did land Matt Guerrier though, and for $4, even though I didn’t have him in my queue, so I have no idea how he ended up on my squad. At least the computer didn’t give me Jason Berken for $4.

Jon Rauch has been named the closer with the Twins. He has some experience in the role and is a decent choice to fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. At the same time, he clearly shouldn’t be looked at as someone who has the job locked down. I just wish Pat Neshek was fully healthy (he is coming back from arm surgery though he has looked good so far).

Jose Reyes is still targeting a return to the Mets this weekend after an extended minor league game on Monday. In related news, the Mets are hoping that Oliver Perez can find the strike zone before then.

You gotta feel for the Giants’ Nate Schierholtz. Thought to be the man in right field after biding his time the past few years, he ended up struggling in spring and lost his starting spot to John Bowker who led the club in homers and RBI. Though you may not think things could get worse for Nate they did on Tuesday when the Giants, facing the Astros’ lefty Wandy Rodriguez, decided to go with Andres Torres in right field essentially meaning that Nate is the third right fielder at the moment. Schierholtz has the highest upside of that trio and still profiles as a decent outfield option in NL-only leagues, though I will admit the start to the 2010 season is certainly distressing.

Huston Street got good news on his injured shoulder. It doesn’t look like it will fly off at any point in the near future according to Dr. James Andrews. Street still hopes to return to the Rockies in early May, though who knows when he will be able to reclaim his ninth inning role from Franklin Morales.

By Ray Flowers

Four for Fantasy

Today is a historic day at BaseballGuys.com. I’m going to, for the first time, hit on each of the four major sports in the same piece. I know, I know, it’s almost as exciting as the release of Twilight: New Moon on Friday, so see if you can contain your excitement long enough to read the entire entry.

I’m loving this Twitter thing which you can follow at Baseball Guys Twitter Account. I was slow to come around, but given the fact that I’m pretty much glued to my chair for 12 hours a day, I might as well share all the information in this big brain of mine.

MLB TALK

Zack Greinke completely deserves the AL Cy Young Award, and I love the fact that he has studied sabermetrics with Brian Bannister. But I think this story is a bit ridiculous. It’s not like Greinke discovered uranium, he merely was exposed to a different way of analyzing pitching. I mean, I know an awful lot about sabermetrics, and it’s not like I could hit the mound and have success merely because I can break down how to use BABIP, CERA and DIPS. Greinke had success because he is immensely talented and finally at peace with himself – it’s not like he needs numbers to tell him not to groove a fastball down the pipe when the count is 0-2.

Lord help us. The Yankees have thrown their hat into the Roy Halladay sweepstakes. At what point does baseball step in and say this just isn’t fair?

Jarrod Washburn and the Mariners might hook back up, or at least there is some interest there by both parties according to the pitcher. Don’t know why the Mariners would be hot and heavy about adding a hurler that went 31-49 with an ERA over four in four years in the Pacific Northwest.

NHL TALK

Ilya Kovalchuk has been mind numbingly good this season. If not for a broken foot that sidelined him for a while, he almost assuredly would be leading the league in goals. After all, he has 12 markers in just 11 games.

Alexander Ovechkin returned to the ice and scored a goal – what a shock. He has 15 goals in 15 games this season.

I wrote about the top-50 fantasy options in the game today in my column entitled The Power Play. Give it a read if you enjoy the sound of a skate blade slicing through a sheet of ice.

If you are looking for a few guys who might be on waivers, give David Rogers’ article Free Agent Finds a look.

NFL TALK

I touched on the JaMarcus Russell debacle yesterday in Hazy NFL Thoughts. Good to know that the Raiders listened as the benched Russell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski. Don’t know if that will help the Raiders much though given that Gradkowski owns a 53.1 completion percentage and a 58.7 QB Rating in 22 career games, but something had to be done.

With Ronnie Brown out for the year with his foot injury, I just fielded a bunch of questions on Live Advice about guys like Lousaka Polite and Lex Hilliard. Yeah, it was a rough two hours.

Speaking of live advice, we have a great instrument that people can turn to in trying to put together a great team down the stretch in fantasy football, and that is our Rest of the Way Rankings tool.

NBA TALK

Is it just me, or do you get the feeling that you are viewing an episode of OZ or Prison Break when you watch an NBA game? Honestly, I bet you could count the number of guys in the league that don’t have at least five tattoos on your fingers and toes.

Just like hockey, we have an article each week that talks about which NBA weapons might be available on waivers with Deep League Pickups. Hey, we are a one stop shop for you all no matter what your fantasy needs are.

By Ray Flowers